Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[knightrider]

Oh what?

So you want all the heat and sunshine as well as all the storms?!

Back off, this one is ours!

LOL true, hows about we swap our glorious heat and sunshine which let me tell you has been in very short supply this summer with your gales and storms? That'll be a good deal I think seeing as allegedly Scotland hardly has any hot weather!

[Backtrack]

LOL true, hows about we swap our glorious heat and sunshine which let me tell you has been in very short supply this summer with your gales and storms? That'll be a good deal I think seeing as allegedly Scotland hardly has any hot weather!

No way. That would mean you would have my snow. I like living in the North, it's colder.

Does anyone know if the track of Katia is nailed on now, or is it still been shifted every run?

[glasgow-guy]

Lol, it has my location down for 41mph and I'm just off the Western coast. I fully expect 60mph+!

my location on the NW model outputs have me for gusts up to 58mph and your location expecting 41mph i think the models really don't have a proper handle on this storm just yet

[knightrider]

No way. That would mean you would have my snow. I like living in the North, it's colder.

Does anyone know if the track of Katia is nailed on now, or is it still been shifted every run?

Lol dont worry with had alot of snow down here anyway the last couple of years so there's no need for swaping there, I think that's something we all share!

[Backtrack]

my location on the NW model outputs have me for gusts up to 58mph and your location expecting 41mph i think the models really don't have a proper handle on this storm just yet

Indeed. Especially for Scotland, a prediction of 58mph seems a little foolish. For your location I'd say gusts of 80mph+?

They really should start getting a grip around the strength of Katia by tomorrow morning.

Lol dont worry with had alot of snow down here anyway the last couple of years so there's no need for swaping there, I think that's something we all share!

Same here! But I live next to the Irish Sea. I get more hail than anyone.

[Liam J]

Satellite image of Katia, going through the transformation.

Meto have my location in line for 60-65mph gusts.

[knightrider]

Indeed. Especially for Scotland, a prediction of 58mph seems a little foolish. For your location I'd say gusts of 80mph+?

They really should start getting a grip around the strength of Katia by tomorrow morning.

Scotland 58mph lol That's a big under-estimation IMO, that's probably just the average gust prediction isn't it? Your right I would say more like 70 maybe even 80+ up there, it's not inplausable we could see something approaching 58mph down here if the forecasts for gales across the whole country are anything to go by.

[Aaron]

Indeed. Especially for Scotland, a prediction of 58mph seems a little foolish. For your location I'd say gusts of 80mph+?

Yeah. Met Office have us down for 53 mph gusts currently but can easily imagine at least one gust above 60 miles per hour. Met Office have Glasgow for only 59 mph.. so I guess they are not too sure right now!

[SP1986]

It might surprise people to learn that tight isobars don't always mean strong winds. There was an event a fair few years back now when a storm with tight isobars hit the UK, bare in mind the wind was westerly, and I am exposed to the west, but there was hardly any wind! So some places might be unlucky enough to have no wind... this is unusual though.

I don't expect much over 40mph, and besides people nearly always overestimate wind strengths unless they have their own measuring equipment. A 40mph gust is strong, it's enough to knock you unsteady, but people will often assume it's much higher.

[Liam J]

Analysis chart for the Atlantic and Katia

[knightrider]

It might surprise people to learn that tight isobars don't always mean strong winds. There was an event a fair few years back now when a storm with tight isobars hit the UK, bare in mind the wind was westerly, and I am exposed to the west, but there was hardly any wind! So some places might be unlucky enough to have no wind... this is unusual though.

I don't expect much over 40mph, and besides people nearly always overestimate wind strengths unless they have their own measuring equipment. A 40mph gust is strong, it's enough to knock you unsteady, but people will often assume it's much higher.

Very true about winds get over estimated, especially in the media hype. But I remember before the October 2000 storm forecasters predicted 90mph for London regions the highest we got was 85mph but generally it was around 75mph, the south coast did see 90mph+ however.

[glasgow-guy]

Yeah. Met Office have us down for 53 mph gusts currently but can easily imagine at least one gust above 60 miles per hour. Met Office have Glasgow for only 59 mph.. so I guess they are not too sure right now!

TBH the model outputs i am not really taking much notice of the predicted wind speeds as with any storm the models never really get it 100% correct

[sn0wman]

My sister is called Katia lol! Will this be worse than the storm we had on May 23rd earlier this year?

[knightrider]

On a slightly worrying note, it is remarkably calm here this morning. The traditional calm before the storm perhaps?...

[glasgow-guy]

On a slightly worrying note, it is remarkably calm here this morning. The traditional calm before the storm perhaps?...

had thunder and lightning last night that was not even forecast so expect the worst and hope for the best

My sister is called Katia lol! Will this be worse than the storm we had on May 23rd earlier this year?

yes i think it will be as its predicted path is the central belt of Scotland Glasgow and Edinburgh likely taking the worst of any damage or disruption

[gottolovethisweather]

It might surprise people to learn that tight isobars don't always mean strong winds. There was an event a fair few years back now when a storm with tight isobars hit the UK, bare in mind the wind was westerly, and I am exposed to the west, but there was hardly any wind! So some places might be unlucky enough to have no wind... this is unusual though.

I remember that day as well and I distinctly recall being completely baffled as to why no strong winds were produced.

This beast however, will have a right ole mixture of high moisture, plenty of instability, plenty of rain and wind, high seas etc.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear about a tornado or two in the aftermath from the media, rightly or wrongly reported.

Certainly going to be an active Sunday/Monday/Tuesday for sure with the risk areas, I imagine, slowly transferring east to affect new areas.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited September 10, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[knightrider]

had thunder and lightning last night that was not even forecast so expect the worst and hope for the best

Or in my case expect the least and hope for the worst.

[glasgow-guy]

Or in my case expect the least and hope for the worst.

i think we all want to catch the worst of this storm that's why we are all here but in reality i really cant afford to rebuild my fence again at least not this year with

the squeeze on household spending

[knightrider]

i think we all want to catch the worst of this storm that's why we are all here but in reality i really cant afford to rebuild my fence again at least not this year with

the squeeze on household spending

Very true, our fence has gone down several times down the years, we moved in June 1987 when I was less then a year old and we are still at the same place lol Just got too comfortable I think, fence went down in the great storm that year and we had a few roof tiles ripped away and the fence has gone over many times since. But now we've installed concrete pilars along it so hopefully should be stronger and hold up to the wind better!

[glasgow-guy]

Very true, our fence has gone down several times down the years, we moved in June 1987 when I was less then a year old and we are still at the same place lol Just got too comfortable I think, fence went down in the great storm that year and we had a few roof tiles ripped away and the fence has gone over many times since. But now we've installed concrete pilars along it so hopefully should be stronger and hold up to the wind better!

yes i have my 8ft posts concreted in this time around however its the fence slats that can still need replacing

right folks stay safe wherever you are in the UK over the weekend i am off out to the supermarket and have family to visit so i likely wont be back on til sunday

[knightrider]

yes i have my 8ft posts concreted in this time around however its the fence slats that can still need replacing

right folks stay safe wherever you are in the UK over the weekend i am off out to the supermarket and have family to visit so i likely wont be back on til sunday

Ok look forward to your comments tommorow, stay safe!

[Shadow]

Damn the north-west, how comes you always get the good storms and we rarely seem to get them nowadays? I remember a few years back there was a period for about 4 or 5 years running when we got storms quite regularly or at the very least gales, now it's like once every couple of years we get a gale and we hardly ever get real storms!

You are more than welcome to get whats coming this way, January 2005 we had loss of life up here and carnage. Have just started sorting the garden out, putting stuff away like the patio table, chairs etc. Hubby has just taken his hovercraft off the trailer and faced it towards the direction of the wind we are supposed to have on monday, if left on the trailer it is likely to get damaged at least now it has a chance. It is 22.8 here now and it is feeling very very muggy.

Sometimes when the weather is bad here I wish I was still living down South West England. Cricky just looked at my weather station and it says 23.7 wow

Edited September 10, 2011 by Shadow

[Jane Louise]

My first post

Been following this unusual and interesting event, but as a novice weather enthusiast I have a lot of questions!

1. Could someone tell me at what time it is due to start interacting with the jet stream or has that already happened? surely this will be the most interesting stage.

2. Will we likely see some impressive thunderstorms down in the south east coast?

3. Does the warm moist air and stormy conditions make for a good chance for tornado's?

4. You guys keep mentioning 18z and 12z, forgive me for being dumb but are these different hours on a chart?

I am hoping a sudden turn to the south! just to get a small taste of what a hurricane is like, I know this can be deadly but it is also fascinating.

Thanks in advance!

Welcome to Netweather, Snow and Storms.

Could you please pop your location in your profile.

Thank you

[Liam J]

Slighly less deep @ 960mb on the 06z (00z 955mb) and a smidge further south but not enough for much if any change in the areas likely to get the severe winds.

[weatherobsuk]

Interestingly NHC going for Extratropical-Hurricane status coming very close to Ireland http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Yet on the updated Met Office surface pressure charts the 'Low' isn't even categorised as Post Katia as it was yesterday, even coming out of Newfoundland. Weird, I can understand downplaying any fears but to mislead reputable meteorologists altogether isn't what their job is about.