Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[Aaron]

The 12z still keeps some very strong winds for western Scotland, but south of the Scottish border it looks like being fairly breezy, but not particularly windy. Wind gusts will not surpass 40mph south of the Scottish border except on the coasts of Northern England.

This is pretty much assured now as we get nearer the time.

Met Office say different. A gust of 53 miles per hour is forecast for here.

Also a high risk of gales for the Yorkshrie Dales.

Edited September 10, 2011 by aaron

[Polar Bear]

this may be a dum question for some of you guys and I apologise in advance.

I have been watching and reviewing this thread about Katia for a while now ever since it became evident she could breeze past us. The question is out of all the tracks and models to date which one has she been pretty near to so far. As I said if this is a really silly question I am sorry but just would be interested to know.

[lorenzo]

West coast get things fastened down.

I wonder how many fly away garden trampoline pictures will be on BBC by Tuesday??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn488.png

[SP1986]

Met Office say different. A gust of 53 miles per hour is forecast for here.

Also a high risk of gales for the Yorkshrie Dales.

Perhaps on the highest peaks yes, but I really can't see any scope for any higher than 40mph lower down.

Just in case some people get an idea that this is somehow a pessimistic account of what may happen, think again..

[Liam J]

Barely a downgrade IMO, there will be fluctuations over the coming runs I would expect even up to Sunday evening..

12Z GFS showing severe gales N England Northwards sustained winds 45mph up to 60mph for Western Scotland

[gottolovethisweather]

this may be a dum question for some of you guys and I apologise in advance.

I have been watching and reviewing this thread about Katia for a while now ever since it became evident she could breeze past us. The question is out of all the tracks and models to date which one has she been pretty near to so far. As I said if this is a really silly question I am sorry but just would be interested to know.

About 350-400 miles north of Newbury, clipping Northern Ireland and tracking across Southern Scotland and exiting somewhere northeast of there, is where most forecasts point to, at the mo. For us, I suggest just a wee breezy night and day from Sunday into Monday for us, PB. Note: AT THE MOMENT!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edit: Whoops, slightly misread the question there PB. I'll await the other knowledgeable folks answers, at a gues, the NOAA output seems best so far and maybe the GFS.

Edited September 10, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[lorenzo]

Have a play around with the different models and tracks here, they are all becoming more similar as time gets nearer.

http://www.tropicala...map&latestrun=1

AEMN - GFS Ensemble Mean

OFCL - NOAA

AVNO - GFS

AP14 - GFS Ensemble 14

The track is one thing to look out for - the depth of the low is the other equally important factor.

GFS likes to deepen systems like this and has good form for creating monster atlantic lows that appear and then vanish from charts.

ECMF and UKMO are the ones to watch for the final mb on approach IMO.

Edited September 10, 2011 by lorenzo

[Polar Bear]

About 350-400 miles north of Newbury, clipping Northern Ireland and tracking across Southern Scotland and exiting somewhere northeast of there, is how the

BBC see it at the mo. Just a wee breezy night and day, Sunday into Monday for us, PB. AT THE MOMENT!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edit: Whoops, slightly misread the question there PB. I'll await the other knowledgeable folks answers, at a gues, the NOAA output seems best so far and maybe the GFS.

Hey GTLTW

Bless you ...and thanks ah ok I will see what the other chaps say but I will listen to you first and foremost.... very warm heh in Newbury this morning? at 8am it was positively glorious n warm. Grey, breezy but really warm..

PS I see though that Katia is sill over 1500 miles away though..

[SP1986]

Barely a downgrade IMO, there will be fluctuations over the coming runs I would expect even up to Sunday evening..

12Z GFS showing severe gales N England Northwards sustained winds 45mph up to 60mph for Western Scotland

These isotachs are in km/h not mph.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hey GTLTW

Bless you ...and thanks ah ok I will see what the other chaps say but I will listen to you first and foremost.... very warm heh in Newbury this morning? at 8am it was positively glorious n warm. Grey, breezy but really warm..

PS I see though that Katia is sill over 1500 miles away though..

Yep it is nicely sunny now too and Coast has had Thunder in Eastbourne and who knows, we might get lucky with some overnight action too.

Thanks to Lorenzo too with his input above which shows my suggestion previously, needs to be pushed further north still (possibly to outer isles).

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

Have a play around with the different models and tracks here, they are all becoming more similar as time gets nearer.

http://www.tropicala...map&latestrun=1

AEMN - GFS Ensemble Mean

OFCL - NOAA

AVNO - GFS

AP14 - GFS Ensemble 14

The track is one thing to look out for - the depth of the low is the other equally important factor.

GFS likes to deepen systems like this and has good form for creating monster atlantic lows that appear and then vanish from charts.

ECMF and UKMO are the ones to watch for the final mb on approach IMO.

Lorenzo you beauty....loving this thank you

[shedhead]

The 12z still keeps some very strong winds for western Scotland, but south of the Scottish border it looks like being fairly breezy, but not particularly windy. Wind gusts will not surpass 40mph south of the Scottish border except on the coasts of Northern England.

This is pretty much assured now as we get nearer the time.

Agreed... getting overhyped to rather ridiculous levels now. I just can't see max gusts exceeding 70mph anywhere where sheep do not outnumber people by at least 1000 to 1, so quite a few folk on here would do well to calm down a little and take stock of the actual situation... lets not become a conduit of the Daily Express,

[Snow and storms]

Can anyone explain why some of those models are very different to others? for instance the BAMM model shows it crashing straight into central UK and across Europe, how can they be so different? do some have less accurate equipment or are they just inputting slightly different readings? I am bit confused

Raining hard in Hastings this evening if anyone cares hope lightning later.

[helen of the north]

I've tied down anything that might decide to vacate but, it seems it's not going to be as bad as first made out. nothing too unusual for the northcoast by the looks.

[Polar Bear]

Can anyone explain why some of those models are very different to others? for instance the BAMM model shows it crashing straight into central UK and across Europe, how can they be so different? do some have less accurate equipment or are they just inputting slightly different readings? I am bit confused

Raining hard in Hastings this evening if anyone cares hope lightning later.

Hey sns,

I am no meteriologocal expert at all....but models of any description for any use do tend to confuse..sometimes best not to try and understand the variables and coefficents and data that gets calcualted only the outcomes . You could be here for eternity working it out and I think (from other model uses) takes a very special person ..not saying that you arent ...maybe you are...oh damn I think my post has come out all the wrong way. .sorry was trying to be helpful. i will go back to just reading the posts...

[Liam J]

These isotachs are in km/h not mph.

Yes and 70kmh = 45mph

[Backtrack]

Well I for one am looking forward to this ex-hurricane.

40-60mph gusts with a mixture of sunshine and showers? Sounds great

For Scotland it's a different story, with gusts likely to exceed 100mph, they should batten down the hatches. :lol:

[loopydreamer]

damn it! I was hoping to atleast have a 40 mph gust down here

to you lot in the north west! Only kidding!

[Snow and storms]

Hey sns,

I am no meteriologocal expert at all....but models of any description for any use do tend to confuse..sometimes best not to try and understand the variables and coefficents and data that gets calcualted only the outcomes . You could be here for eternity working it out and I think (from other model uses) takes a very special person ..not saying that you arent ...maybe you are...oh damn I think my post has come out all the wrong way. .sorry was trying to be helpful. i will go back to just reading the posts...

Thanks, hehe, I will take your advise and just hope BAMM is correct! who ever BAMM is lol. A few other interesting tracks in there taking it on a curve south etc. The track of Maria is also starting to look like one to follow.

[Shadow]

Well I for one am looking forward to this ex-hurricane.

For Scotland it's a different story, with gusts likely to exceed 100mph, they should batten down the hatches.

Already battened down here

[Backtrack]

Already battened down here

Don't forget the cat!

[cyclonic happiness]

Aside from any wind this system may bring, will it bring much rain? no-one seems to be mentioning that and we really need the stuff badly down here.

Being a tropical storm one would expect a fair amount of rain, but I can't find alot of data ?

[The PIT]

Well GFS has shifted back north again and then prolongs the gales with the wind strengthening again Monday night into Tuesday morning with the strongest gusts Southern Scotland and Northern England. The evening forecast seems to indicate just a normal autumn storm battering Scotland with gusts up to 70 mph. Plenty of drama to come with this one I think before we get there.

Edited September 10, 2011 by The PIT

[geoffw]

hi what kind o windspeeds will NI get

[weatherobsuk]

First indications of Katia within the SW approaches, been looking at the Ana-front all day, and the 970mb low has finally caught up with it, 'pluming' the first extratropical remnants of the Hurricane into the South and Southwest. the center of Katia however is still out within the mid-Atlantic.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html