Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[Liam J]

Seen the morning forecast??? Gusts up to 70 mph Scotland. Quite common for the area and not exceptional.

Which morning forecast? I very rarely watch TV forecasts with so much data available to view on the net, plus they are sometimes way off the mark. Gusts up to 70mph yes quite common up there, I think that has been underestimated and would expect to see alot higher gusts recored over Western Scotland.

Still a developing situation and time will tell soon enough.

[Buckster]

we are in Autumn now anyway right ?

Autumn storm in Autumn .... righty

[Liam J]

we are in Autumn now anyway right ?

Autumn storm in Autumn .... righty

Correct however it is very early into the season to see a depression at this depth heading for the UK, most of the trees are still in full leaf acting as a sail this will put massive pressure on the trees. Most injuries you hear about during high winds are due to falling trees.

[Coast]

the yanks have pulled the plug on her,so cant find anyway of tracking her now.

Here's the last meaningful ones from the US, which by their own admission, are an unknown quantity +96 hrs from the States:

we are in Autumn now anyway right ?

Autumn storm in Autumn .... righty

Hmm not quite in this case.....

[peterf]

AP 17 will do for me

should get a glimpse of her on eumestat later today.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages/EUMETSAT_MSG_RGB-naturalcolor-westernEurope.jpg

[Liam J]

AP 17 will do for me

should get a glimpse of her on eumestat later today.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages/EUMETSAT_MSG_RGB-naturalcolor-westernEurope.jpg

I believe that is her on the left of the shot?

[peterf]

well get a better look with the next update.

[TonyH]

Seen the morning forecast??? Gusts up to 70 mph Scotland. Quite common for the area and not exceptional.

Having just run through the models for the coming week, I would say nothing too damaging away from Northern Ireland, NW Eire, the far north of England. However very tight isobars persist over much of Scotland for much of Monday and Tuesday, so a very sustained and damaging severe gale, with a considerable risk for most of Scotland. For Northern Ireland and NW Eire the risk of damage starts later this evening, but has passed by Tuesday.

100mph gusts seem very likely for exposed hills, coasts and islands of Scotland.

Edited September 11, 2011 by Tonyh

[Snow and storms]

Morning people,

This thing is now hard to track since it has left the hurricane radars, does anyone have a good site for visuals like stormpulse but for winter storms?

Looking at the IR pictures it looks as though the Jet stream has ripped her to pieces, will she regain the cloud shape as she gets closer and does anyone have latest central pressure?

still crossing fingers for a southerly turn

[MP-R]

Looks like a non-event for the south. Showers fading as today goes on, not much rain around tomorrow and rather unimpressive winds too. Bring on the next Atlantic storm - further south!

[Mapantz]

It's a pretty significant storm for the North, given the time of year. The UKMO models have now downgraded it, but i'm sure she'll cause some disruption.

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/rb-l.jpg

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62095

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Really windy here and gusting 50mph on st bees head

[sn0wman]

Morning!

I still think GFS is too high with the pressure - according to the Met Office it is 959mb. When you look at GFS it says it is at roughly 972mb. Wouldn't this have a big impact on the strength later on?

[Ladyofthestorm]

eeek ! just looked at your location :-> Hope this dosnt turn out too bad for you all up there.

Hi there Im in a similar boat, or will probably need one by the end. There are afew of us in this area on the board and we are ALL watching this storm with careful consideration.

The GFS model did brilliantly forecasting this one.

Bodes well for the future for the winter.:grinning-smiley-003

Meto still havent updated from amber to red. However with central area pressure of 956mb and a Spring tide will cause quite severe flooding in the western areas low lying to the sea. Monday is the full moon. At Broaford bay there is a 5.7m high tide forecast at 1830hrs on Monday night that just ties iin perfectly. I suspect other areas are in for the same. Whatever you do, if you are stuck with rising floodwater by a flooded causeway..stay in your home youll get wet but nor drowned.

Large trees are still in full leaf as well (though wont be after the storm) so there is a high risk of windfall. Even if it doesnt feel windy in a woodland at ground level it could be gusting to 90mph on the top of the canopy of the trees.

Landslips another major issue,I do have particular roads in mind, but any western area could see it. Shadow, watch the strathcarron to Auctertyre road very carefully if driving on it and whatever you do dont drive on it as night. The Beallach Na Ba Pass along with the rest and be thankful are also likely candidates for majot landslips. Rainfall could hit 75mm in some areas with this storm,perhaps even 100mm over higher ground around where we are and we have already had significant rainfall already in the past few days.

Be safe everyone xxx

[Liam J]

Really windy here and gusting 50mph on st bees head

It is windy here on the Cumbrian coast, nothing to do with EX-Katia yet.

[Coast]

All the info I've seen this morning still points to this being a fairly significant storm and it looks like lasting for quite a while tomorrow, so maybe sustained winds over the duration will make it something to remember?

[Liam J]

Very quiet on various weather sites regarding any updates on the storm.

[Coast]

High tides and swell could be a problem for coastal areas even after the winds have passed:

[Liam J]

Netweather issued an alert now http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerts;reg=3;sess=

[Shadow]

Hi there Im in a similar boat, or will probably need one by the end. There are afew of us in this area on the board and we are ALL watching this storm with careful consideration.

The GFS model did brilliantly forecasting this one.

Bodes well for the future for the winter.:grinning-smiley-003

Meto still havent updated from amber to red. However with central area pressure of 956mb and a Spring tide will cause quite severe flooding in the western areas low lying to the sea. Monday is the full moon. At Broaford bay there is a 5.7m high tide forecast at 1830hrs on Monday night that just ties iin perfectly. I suspect other areas are in for the same. Whatever you do, if you are stuck with rising floodwater by a flooded causeway..stay in your home youll get wet but nor drowned.

Large trees are still in full leaf as well (though wont be after the storm) so there is a high risk of windfall. Even if it doesnt feel windy in a woodland at ground level it could be gusting to 90mph on the top of the canopy of the trees.

Landslips another major issue,I do have particular roads in mind, but any western area could see it. Shadow, watch the strathcarron to Auctertyre road very carefully if driving on it and whatever you do dont drive on it as night. The Beallach Na Ba Pass along with the rest and be thankful are also likely candidates for majot landslips. Rainfall could hit 75mm in some areas with this storm,perhaps even 100mm over higher ground around where we are and we have already had significant rainfall already in the past few days.

Be safe everyone xxx

Thanks for the heads up. Unfortunately my son goes to Plockton High School so he will be travelling back on the bus tomorrow afternoon. If I know it is going to be really bad I just won't send him into school. My hubby is an ambo technician based in Lochcarron and is on shift tomorrow so hopefully he won't get called out in it. I definitely won't be venturing out in it thats for sure. Our tide falls in line with Broadford so quite a high tide for us as well. We have forewarned a neighbour who has his small boat near the slipway in Lochcarron and yesterday he took it out of the water as a precaution. Please stay safe over there in Breakish. Take care everyone else in the firing line.

Becky

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm not expecting any unusually strong winds for my particular area but it does look, at least according to the fax charts, as if the spell of strong winds will be prolonged, lasting well into Tuesday judging by the isobars.

I'd guess a maximum gust of 62 mph here, any higher will be an unexpected bonus.

[Liam J]

Metcheck joined in now with a severe weather warning - gusts in excess of 80mph.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

Ever so slightly further south on the GFS 06z.

[mardatha]

Hi, I'm new. I'm at 1000ft in the border hills and we get a lot of wind. We've had wind, rain and lightning the last few days and are getting tidied up for Katia now. I will be glad of this forum when the winter comes for the snow forecast - we get a lot of snow here and once it lies it stays ! Last year we were at four and a half feet of the stuff and ran out of places to put it Just wondering when this storm is to hit and how long it's expected to last? TY.

[mountain shadow]

Doesn't look like anything more than a normal autumn depression in my view. Ok, we can expect more trees down as they are still in leaf but away from the coastal areas of northern ireland and western scotland I'm not sure it will be that significant.

Just make sure your garden furniture is put away and things will be fine.