Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[ZONE 51]

Met Office Weather Warnings -

AT THIS STAGE -

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edited September 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[glasgow-guy]

this mornings output is nothing less than shocking 44mph projected wind speeds for the Glasgow Area

on Monday is either a massive downgrade of this storm or further proof that the models still have no firm

grasp on this storm?

[Aaron]

The forecasts are less than impressive. The maximum gust for Glasgow on Monday is only 61 mph, and until recently it was only 55 mph. Still some uncertainty I think.

[Liam J]

00z tracking further south than the 18z, N England back inline for severe gales on this run.

Below are two isotach 10m wind charts from the GFS model for 6am Tuesday, depression is further south.

Timing has been delayed with the strongest winds now into Tuesday.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Windy windy windy XD

[glasgow-guy]

Windy windy windy XD

are these Monday or Tuesday ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

are these Monday or Tuesday ?

Monday my friend after Midday

[Liam J]

A closer look at the 00z runs have the storm tracking a bit further south than the 18z, taking a more easterly track over Scotland instead of skimming past the NW coast.

Still some differences in central pressure across the models, all show severe gales for Northern Britain.

BECO update - watching she might be slightly further south with stronger wind gusts and 12 hour delay.

http://www.beco.org.uk/

[The PIT]

Just seen the forecast and it's just a normal autumn storm and nothing to get excited about. I did keep looking at xcweather and wondered whether they were underplaying it but it seems not to be the case. So leaves to be removed the odd smaller branch and the normal wheelie bin flying about.

[Aaron]

Just seen the forecast and it's just a normal autumn storm and nothing to get excited about. I did keep looking at xcweather and wondered whether they were underplaying it but it seems not to be the case. So leaves to be removed the odd smaller branch and the normal wheelie bin flying about.

Aye. A standard Autumn storm, haven't seen one of those in a while.

[Sharri]

Just seen the forecast and it's just a normal autumn storm and nothing to get excited about. I did keep looking at xcweather and wondered whether they were underplaying it but it seems not to be the case. So leaves to be removed the odd smaller branch and the normal wheelie bin flying about.

I don't know about anyone else, but I don't know what to think, one minute there are posts about how severe the storm is going to be and then the next there are posts like this! Very confusing! Hope everyone stays safe if it does turn out to be a bad one.

[glasgow-guy]

I don't know about anyone else, but I don't know what to think, one minute there are posts about how severe the storm is going to be and then the next there are posts like this! Very confusing! Hope everyone stays safe if it does turn out to be a bad one.

welcome to the forum as usual there is always hype for about the first week then when model outputs start firming up and its

suddenly not in there back yard then the negative posts will appear just look out for what the experienced posters say

ps you should see this place when there is a sniff off snow its unreal

Edited September 11, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[loopydreamer]

i totally agree with you sharri! saying the storm isnt going to be that severe is ridiculous! These people might be right but its the way people are saying it......like they actually know! we dont really know how severe this storm is going to be yet!

[Liam J]

Just seen the forecast and it's just a normal autumn storm and nothing to get excited about. I did keep looking at xcweather and wondered whether they were underplaying it but it seems not to be the case. So leaves to be removed the odd smaller branch and the normal wheelie bin flying about.

Are you talking about your area here? There will be more impact in Northern Britain to what you have described, sub 960mb depression with potential for gusts 70-80mph maybe higher in very exposed areas of the NW. More like a few trees down and minor structural damage, especially over Scotland.

[loopydreamer]

welcome to the forum as usual there is always hype for about the first week then when model outputs start firming up and its

suddenly not in there back yard then the negative posts will appear just look out for what the experienced posters say

ps you should see this place when there is a sniff off snow its unreal

i just love your p.s comment glasgow-guy!

[Polar Bear]

Sharri,

Yes i do kind of understand but the nw experts do tend to know what they are talking about so I watch what they say rather than anyone else. The thing is I think (I say I think as I havent checked this morning) katia is still a fair way out. Some 1000 miles to go and things can change although there is in my head from the nw chaps some degree of certainty she will be a fairly large storm and can't underestimated. Otherwise why bother this thread! The other thing I bear in mind is that we haven't had a system over us which resembles a late autum storm i.e we are coming out of a summer (not that it was that great) and then suddenly we are faced with some fairly higher winds of late. More for north and Scotland. Ground is soft leaves are in trees so katia will in my view feels and will be for some serious.

[Coast]

I don't know about anyone else, but I don't know what to think, one minute there are posts about how severe the storm is going to be and then the next there are posts like this! Very confusing! Hope everyone stays safe if it does turn out to be a bad one.

It's the weather - it doesn't follow a timetable, speedometer or SatNav!!!!

[Aaron]

Are you talking about your area here? There will be more impact in Northern Britain to what you have described, sub 960mb depression with potential for gusts 70-80mph maybe higher in very exposed areas of the NW. More like a few trees down and minor structural damage, especially over Scotland.

I'm guessing he is referring to southern Northern England. I'm sure it'll be windy here but not extreme, just the odd wheely bin flying down the street resulting in litter everywhere.

[The PIT]

Are you talking about your area here? There will be more impact in Northern Britain to what you have described, sub 960mb depression with potential for gusts 70-80mph maybe higher in very exposed areas of the NW. More like a few trees down and minor structural damage, especially over Scotland.

Seen the morning forecast??? Gusts up to 70 mph Scotland. Quite common for the area and not exceptional.

[Buckster]

I don't know about anyone else, but I don't know what to think, one minute there are posts about how severe the storm is going to be and then the next there are posts like this! Very confusing! Hope everyone stays safe if it does turn out to be a bad one.

because with any "event" that is vaguely of interest weather wise - there will always be wanna be Weatherforcasters/rampers/unrampers etc posting

just go by MetOffice predictions they will be more accurate

I'm guess above average Autumn storm ....so... next please !

I'm guessing Armageddon isn't actually coming tomorrow

[The PIT]

I'm guessing he is referring to southern Northern England. I'm sure it'll be windy here but not extreme, just the odd wheely bin flying down the street resulting in litter everywhere.

Nope the morning forecast including which Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[Liam J]

John Kettley ex BBC weather forecaster has half a page of weather in Sundays Mail each week....

Media over hype pherhaps but he writes today - EX Hurricane Katia will bring damaging winds to Northern Britain on Monday with the possibility of winds strengths approaching those of the 1987 storm which hit the south.

Maybe the Daily Mail guys told him to write something scary to carry on the hype

[P-M]

Seen the morning forecast??? Gusts up to 70 mph Scotland. Quite common for the area and not exceptional.

The leaves are in full leaf and trees sat on already saturated ground.......maybe not exceptional but the potential to be very disruptive indeed. And my location is looking to be pretty windy tomorrow and Tuesday now, we don't get big wind storms regularly....

It really isn't that difficult to understand, yes a pretty standard Autumn storm (if that's how we want to put it) but there is nothing about this time of the year that is standard for that storm system. I underestimated it at first but actually now think we all need to just keep an eye out. It doesn't matter if someone lives up a mountain or in a large city disruption is disruption - simples!

Edited September 11, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[peterf]

the yanks have pulled the plug on her,so cant find anyway of tracking her now.

[Sharri]

Sharri,

Yes i do kind of understand but the nw experts do tend to know what they are talking about so I watch what they say rather than anyone else. The thing is I think (I say I think as I havent checked this morning) katia is still a fair way out. Some 1000 miles to go and things can change although there is in my head from the nw chaps some degree of certainty she will be a fairly large storm and can't underestimated. Otherwise why bother this thread! The other thing I bear in mind is that we haven't had a system over us which resembles a late autum storm i.e we are coming out of a summer (not that it was that great) and then suddenly we are faced with some fairly higher winds of late. More for north and Scotland. Ground is soft leaves are in trees so katia will in my view feels and will be for some serious.

Thanks for that. I'm by no means an expert, but I've been following netweather for a couple of years now and I've learned a lot. I have been reading not only this thread, but the other one about ex-Katia, I've been checking the met office site and various other sites which I found via links on this thread. I came to the conclusion that this was slightly more than a "normal autumn storm" with it being ex tropical etc, and therefore I am concerned for what may happen from a mild concern about my already shaky garden fence to a bigger worry for family out and about on Monday. During the last windy storm we had my friends father got a fright whilst out driving when a roadsign got blown into his windscreen, he was on a motorway at the time. That wasn't even as bad as this one is predicted to be. So that's why I found the comment about the odd wheelie bin flying about vey confusing! I will continue to follow this thread and watch with interest to see what happens. Whilst I love a good storm, I sincerely hope everyone stays safe. Thanks for all the replies and info :-)