Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[peterf]

Aside from any wind this system may bring, will it bring much rain? no-one seems to be mentioning that and we really need the stuff badly down here.

Being a tropical storm one would expect a fair amount of rain, but I can't find alot of data ?

what exactly are you waiting for rain for?

[The PIT]

what exactly are you waiting for rain for?

Because quite a few of us have had a very dry spring and Summer. Even this month hasn't been exactly wet either. Anyway back to the question it doesn't look like a huge amount of rain according to the gfs plus it move through quickly as well.

[Staffordshire]

What does this mean?

First indications of Katia within the SW approaches, been looking at the Ana-front all day, and the 970mb low has finally caught up with it, 'pluming' the first extratropical remnants of the Hurricane into the South and Southwest. the center of Katia however is still out within the mid-Atlantic.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

[Ladyofthestorm]

Already battened down here

and here, after what has been a balmy day, rain in morning very warm humid sunshine in afternoon.

[Aaron]

Agreed... getting overhyped to rather ridiculous levels now. I just can't see max gusts exceeding 70mph anywhere where sheep do not outnumber people by at least 1000 to 1, so quite a few folk on here would do well to calm down a little and take stock of the actual situation... lets not become a conduit of the Daily Express,

Eh, well, our local weather just predicted gales of up to 70 mph in West Yorkshire, one of the most populated areas of Britain. Don't think that's over hyping, but a possibility. To say 'No, that will not happen at all', is just a tad ignorant IMO. Of course I am not really expecting 70 mph winds here.

[peterf]

Because quite a few of us have had a very dry spring and Summer. Even this month hasn't been exactly wet either. Anyway back to the question it doesn't look like a huge amount of rain according to the gfs plus it move through quickly as well.

well seen as the question wasn't aimed at you directly,but you felt the need to reply.

why are you crying out for rain in Autumn?

everything plant and crop wise is closing down for it's rest period (winter).

is your pond getting short lol.

[Downburst]

hi what kind o windspeeds will NI get

Sunday Night Monday morning you'll get a steady 30 to 40 mph for a good few hours and gusts perhaps slightly higher. Gusts from 60 to 70 mph on the coast or higher ground. Now with leaves on the trees a gust of 60 to 70 mph is pretty scary.

[NickR]

Eh, well, our local weather just predicted gales of up to 70 mph in West Yorkshire, one of the most populated areas of Britain. Don't think that's over hyping, but a possibility. To say 'No, that will not happen at all', is just a tad ignorant IMO. Of course I am not really expecting 70 mph winds here.

Nothing particularly unusual about gusts of up to 70mph (which means most places won't see higher than 50-60mph). It's a bit earlier than usual, but at risk of being overplayed, I think.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM sticks to its guns of having the low further South and moving through more quickly unlike this afternoon's UKMO and GFS runs where on the latter 2 runs may have the strongest winds occuring on Monday night, especially to the "lee" of high ground. The models are just struggling slightly on the positioning but all paint a very windy picture and a picture where it will turn cooler from the NW once this low moves through.

[peterf]

so many new experts on board it seems lol.

nothing like learning the ropes,but seems like nowadays the monkeys are swinging before they understand the layout.

ignore me just a midlife crisis lol.

[pyrotech]

To try and answer a few questions for some of the new people on here. ( We were all new once)

The rainfall is shown currently to be to the North and West of the centre, with most forecast models the large quantities miss the Uk but Scotland could get upto 100mm.

The storm is currently within the strong jet stream, it is as it pulls through the jet stream ( moving northwards heading out of the jet) that it could re- strengthen a little, this could possibly cause a few headaches for the models and forecasters. This is a little like a vortex as 200 mile an hour winds that earlier ripped the storm apart, can now cause rapid rising of air and lower pressure gradient, hence higher wind speeds. Although most areas of population will not likely see this as a major storm, North western areas will. Some say that they are used to storms like this, but we need to remember two things, 1. trees are still well in leaf, causing high wind resistance. 2 Spring tides, along with swell can lead to major problems at sea and costal flooding. Although if during a spring low tide the storm hits then things are not so bad, but if tide is in then it can be very bad.

[Downburst]

Sunday Night Monday morning you'll get a steady 30 to 40 mph for a good few hours and gusts perhaps slightly higher. Gusts from 60 to 70 mph on the coast or higher ground. Now with leaves on the trees a gust of 60 to 70 mph is pretty scary.

And also the other interesting thing is that this will last at least 12 hours, maybe 18 hours. All day Monday. Also on reflection I would say the north coast and nw coast of Ireland will get 90 mph gusts. And the waves smashing into headlands will be up to 30 feet high on the cliffs. So don't go fishing

[A.J]

so many new experts on board it seems lol.

nothing like learning the ropes,but seems like nowadays the monkeys are swinging before they understand the layout.

ignore me just a midlife crisis lol.

It's not like you to speak your mind eh Peter?

[TonyH]

what exactly are you waiting for rain for?

Because they have had one of the driest years on record to date! Below 300mm Jan to August/ September is a very low amount, trees are stressed, ponds and rivers extremely low.

[cyclonic happiness]

well seen as the question wasn't aimed at you directly,but you felt the need to reply.

why are you crying out for rain in Autumn?

everything plant and crop wise is closing down for it's rest period (winter).

is your pond getting short lol.

Because it will cause problems with the water table next year if we have a dry winter as well.

You really should see the trees here, some have dropped all their leaves and others, the leaves have just dryed up and gone crispy on the branches.

Here where I am, we have missed ever bit of rain since last year seemingly and even today the front parted and went either side of us.....we just NEED rain! and lots of it!

[Downburst]

so many new experts on board it seems lol.

nothing like learning the ropes,but seems like nowadays the monkeys are swinging before they understand the layout.

ignore me just a midlife crisis lol.

I've been browsing this site for a good few years. I don't post often, but am happy to on this event. This is a general forum is it not? You measure people by what exactly? Should posts be run past you or others first perhaps?

[A.J]

Because it will cause problems with the water table next year if we have a dry winter as well.

You really should see the trees here, some have dropped all their leaves and others, the leaves have just dryed up and gone crispy on the branches.

Here where I am, we have missed ever bit of rain since last year seemingly and even today the front parted and went either side of us.....we just NEED rain! and lots of it!

The same here, very dry, just a sprinkling today, I feel that you'll get some much needed rainfall tonight and over the next 2 or 3 days

[Liam Ellis]

Already blowing a gale here in North West Wales - just recorded a gust of 49mph. No rain here but showers to the South and East.

[peterf]

Because they have had one of the driest years on record to date! Below 300mm Jan to August/ September is a very low amount, trees are stressed, ponds and rivers extremely low.

so what exactly will heavy rain do regards the annual cycle of trees?

they are slowing and closing down for the year.it dont matter if it rains from now till xmas eve,regardsthe life of a tree or large shrub.

if damage was done it happened way back in the period of the dry spring.no amount of water will now rectefy such problems.

[Richie V]

In my opinion there no major downgrade. Pardon me for saying but, on this thread theres been so much ramping that todays 12z GFS is made to look like a major downgrade. Anyone that thinks theres been a major downgrade is greatly mistaken and needs to look at the facts and take stock. If anything the 12Z IMBY is an upgrade due to the extention of the gale period. I'm not having a go..... Just a little realism is needed.

[cyclonic happiness]

so what exactly will heavy rain do regards the annual cycle of trees?

they are slowing and closing down for the year.it dont matter if it rains from now till xmas eve,regardsthe life of a tree or large shrub.

if damage was done it happened way back in the period of the dry spring.no amount of water will now rectefy such problems.

Are you trolling us?

Regardless of the trees and shrubs, the reservoirs and rivers will be topped up, adding fresh oxygen rich water back to the gaspingly dry watercourses.

[pyrotech]

I am off out tonight, tomorrow ( After Wales play there rugby) i will set up a katia data forum if someone does not do it first. I will then do a actual track versus forecast track of the low and update if it deepens again or not. In addition i will give the links to the buoys in the atlantic approaches and some costal cams. Most is available on my site for those that can not wait. If someone else wants to start the forum earlier please do so and i will contriubute tomorrow as the storm approaches. Will it be a beast or damp squib this storm, my own prediction is closer to a beast, an early violent storm but probably not worse than what we would get in November. Its more about this being in September and the complications that causes. It has plenty of chances of surprising us.

[The PIT]

Going to be interesting watching the forecasts tomorrow. If the forecasters get hyper excited expect to be disappointed if they down play it expect a pleasant surprise. Gone all quiet here quiet enough for my neighbours smoke from the chimney to blow in my room. Bloomin annoying. Anyway a test for my new roof coming up.

[lfcdude]

Update of Ian's twitter

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

Very latest frm MetO Ops Centre slows ex-Katia & shifts centre further NW. So strongest winds (i.e., in NW) not till late Mon into Mon night

[pyrotech]

Going to be interesting watching the forecasts tomorrow. If the forecasters get hyper excited expect to be disappointed if they down play it expect a pleasant surprise. Gone all quiet here quiet enough for my neighbours smoke from the chimney to blow in my room. Bloomin annoying. Anyway a test for my new roof coming up.

Actually i think the met down in Exeter pretty much get it right, they rightly announce a weather watch and warnings without causing panic or going too far with it then being a damp squib. In fairness if they shout and get excited early and nothing happens then in future people ignore warnings. It is rare that they get things very wrong these days and with such an unpredictable storm they have got the forecast for now about right. Even when these storms are a hurricane they are unpredictable in the carribean, where 2 days before landfall a huge area is put on watch and narrowed down closer in time. Here we have major complications, firstly is a strong jet stream that firstly acts like windsheer to the storm, tearing the top off it and causing it to weaken. Then cooler seas, which stop the fuel for the storm. Then back to the jet stream and as it passes out of the jet potential for it to deepen again. Thats a small amount of the complications to add as this storm approaches us, inregards to actual track and depth. Both them factors make a huge difference. Our metO do a awesome job on forecasting one of the most complicated and unpredictable sciences. I do not think they deserve any critisism right now for actions that at this time are balanced and appropriate.