Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[The PIT]

I noticed this morning on the news they were saying hurricane katia is going to hit us. Doh no it's not a hurricane although at the present time it will contain hurricane force gusts.

One problem with the weather warnings the public in general won't take much notice. Warning and alerts come thick and fast these days even for mundane weather events. If it comes as expected fingers crossed nobody gets hurt.

Looking at the 06 oz GFS it seems a little further south compared to previous runs agreeing with the ecm

[weatherobsuk]

Windy today, but the result of an active Cold Front unrelated to Katia passing through, forcing over Scotland is what's giving the heavier showers currently. The Trough and associated Ana-Front mid-Atlantic is however related to Katia, and will come close to passing the South Coast later on through tonight. (hence why I was looking at the Azores windspeeds on the link given earlier as it was moving through.)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

It seems benign, but a frontal system is a frontal system in any case.

[glasgow-guy]

met office updated for tuesday

met office updated for tuesday

Having eased overnight winds may strengthen again during the day. The Central Lowlands of Scotland and exposed parts of N Ireland and N England perhaps most prone.

[bodysnatcher]

damn, I cancelled Monday ferry to Islay and rebooked for Tuesday midday.. - that'll be the exposed part just above N Ireland

[Liam J]

Still looking very stormy in the north and west on current guidance, N England Northwards in the firing line with Scotland and parts of Ireland taking the brunt of the damaging winds.

The isobars stay very tight over much of Northern Britain even as the dperession is exiting N UK, a very windy spell of weather indeed with potential for prolonged periods of severe gale force winds in places to the north and west.

[Bluebreezer54]

........... Seems to me that some posters prefer to deal in make believe than fact in their posts - for two days the same people have ramped their way through this thread suggesting things that no forecast was showing (ie that London would be affected etc) and using the 'uncertainty' line as some sort of justification for the total exaggeration. Now the uncertainty is clearing and the track becoming more certain, it's the same people claiming it's all a damp squib, the forecasts were wrong etc etc etc. It's not and they weren't ..........

Absolutely spot on.

[Mark Bayley]

I noticed this morning on the news they were saying hurricane katia is going to hit us. Doh no it's not a hurricane although at the present time it will contain hurricane force gusts.

One problem with the weather warnings the public in general won't take much notice. Warning and alerts come thick and fast these days even for mundane weather events. If it comes as expected fingers crossed nobody gets hurt.

Looking at the 06 oz GFS it seems a little further south compared to previous runs agreeing with the ecm

Seems we should miss the worst of the winds though, met office has gusts unto 50mph, although i suspect it could be closer to 40mph. Still looks nasty further north, especially given the time of year.

[Snow and storms]

Am I wrong in thinking that this has similar ingredients to the 1987 storm? I know it is from a different direction but surely the very warm air and moisture carried over by this storm will then meet the cool temperatures over the Atlantic and the pressure will deepen very fast? I understand that in the 1987 storm there was a very warm area of low pressure over Bay of Biscal that rapidly moved north east meeting the unusually cold air coming down from Iceland?

How much do the forecasters know about very warm tropical depressions interacting with cold atlantic air? I assume with the huge amounts of secondary lows we get they have already cooled down well before they get near us?

[tinybill]

i see the met office now has put the east coast on an yellow alert now so all i can see we all got to keep an eye on the updates , i know what happened here on the east coast when the great storm hit!!!

Edited September 10, 2011 by tinybill

[West Sussex Kate]

Things changing all the time!

[Terminal Moraine]

Am I wrong in thinking that this has similar ingredients to the 1987 storm? I know it is from a different direction but surely the very warm air and moisture carried over by this storm will then meet the cool temperatures over the Atlantic and the pressure will deepen very fast? I understand that in the 1987 storm there was a very warm area of low pressure over Bay of Biscal that rapidly moved north east meeting the unusually cold air coming down from Iceland?

How much do the forecasters know about very warm tropical depressions interacting with cold atlantic air? I assume with the huge amounts of secondary lows we get they have already cooled down well before they get near us?

The 1987 storm was different in that it was a rapidly developing secondary low whereas the depression associated with the remains of Katia reaches its greatest depth in mid- Atlantic and is already occluding ( decaying ) as it approaches NW Scotland.

A powerful depression nontheless and affecting a wider area than the 1987 storm.

[SP1986]

Bear in mind, looking at the Met-office warnings, and this is quite relevant to my area, but those on the edge of the warning, particularly in southern North England and North Wales, are probably in a similar situation that the south were in a few days ago... basically wait and see what happens.

The problematic winds are almost certainly going to be north of the Isle Man northwards. As you would expect coasts a bit further south (say down to Blackpool) could be blowy, but elsewhere I think we will have seen stronger winds already this year, than those south of Blackpool will get on Monday.

In reality this has always been the case, I think it's been very consistently and accurately forecast by the GFS.

[snowlover2009]

This storm has got me thinking about past storms. the last major on here was around the third week Of november, can't remember the date. Does anyone has any archive wetterzentrale charts for it. What were peoples views on it?

[Aaron]

I think my highest wind speed this year can be achieved.

[Argyllcraig]

Buoy 44140 to the south of Newfoundland has shown some storng winds since i last looked 3 hours ago..

pressure still dropping with sustained winds of currently of 62.2kts with it being unable to record gusts at the mo.. swell has increased from 9feet to 24.3feet..

At a guess this buoy is just to the north of the storm at 42N

[The PIT]

Seems we should miss the worst of the winds though, met office has gusts unto 50mph, although i suspect it could be closer to 40mph. Still looks nasty further north, especially given the time of year.

Met office have us at 50 to 55. Since I'm sat on top of a quarry with no shelter I expect we should record a 60 mph.

[Lauren]

If I'm being totally honest, i think people are thinking this is going to be much more impressive than it really will be.

[TonyH]

Well, today is windy with gusts close to gale force, and the isobars are not so tight, so 50-60mph gusts here Monday I should imagine, about as bad as its been in the past year or two really, with 80-90mph gusts for coastal Wales, e.g. Aberporth (70mph gusts occur frequently there)

[Sprites]

A swift just flew over, and it is raining from jellyfish, 40-50mph gusts expected here.

[Shadow]

A swift just flew over, and it is raining from jellyfish, 40-50mph gusts expected here.

??????????????????????????????

[Liam J]

Intersting read here on the BECO web site, if they are to be believed then it is nothing to worry about if you don't live in NW Scotland or Shetland!! Incorrect IMO

http://www.beco.org.uk/

[snowlover2009]

If I'm being totally honest, i think people are thinking this is going to be much more impressive than it really will be.

oh you wouldn't be saying this if you were in the firing line. I bet you was one of people ramping it and over exaggerating about or at least thinking it. Now we know what places will be affected your left disappointed, so you moan and belittle it!

[bobbydog]

If I'm being totally honest, i think people are thinking this is going to be much more impressive than it really will be.

i'm sure it will be impressive if you happen to be in the right area but those people in the south, expecting anything more than it being a bit windy, will be disappointed. the GFS has been consistent in the storm's predicted track and i think it will end up correct. i think the sensationalism attached to this storm is due to the slim, outside chance that it could deviate from the predicted track and affect areas not usually hit. we will just have to wait and see

[Aaron]

If I'm being totally honest, i think people are thinking this is going to be much more impressive than it really will be.

I think people are also under estimating it. Or maybe you're a bit upset you are too far south?

[Lauren]

I think people are also under estimating it. Or maybe you're a bit upset you are too far south?

I think the majority of the country who aren't really in the path of it are making too much of it. The East may very well see some decent stuff, but I think there's a hell of a lot of clutching of straws from everyone else.

I'm not upset as I wasn't expecting anything in the first place.

Edited September 10, 2011 by Lauren