2012 UK Drought

[Aaron]

It's not been particularly wet here. Last year was dry, this year is quite dry, the last real wet month was November 2009.

[Staffordshire]

I'll admit I've had a few days with a few hours of light rain. I think I could be up to around 30ml this month which is alot better than other months.

[TonyH]

Annoys me that people 'up north' keep on trying to tell us that the 'massive' change in rainfall patterns since 2007 is all in my mind??

Please tell me I'm right.........we have had some extraodinarily low rainfall the last few years?

Coventry annual rainfall totals since 2007:

2007: 833mm

2008: 847mm

2009: 687mm

2010: 586mm

2011 to date: 354mm

Average: 685mm

Two very wet years, one average, one dry, and one very dry.

[picog]

Could be over 30 mm for October, if we get some rain tomorrow. I was relieved to see the total edge about the 1 inch level. A very wet November and December, followed by a very snowy Jan/Feb would be ideal for this area.

[Eabie]

This Thursday (3rd of November) is looking like our best chance of getting some decent rainfall. But considering the pattern for months on end has been for the rain to edge away from our region, usually falling heaviest to our west or north, I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation. Odds are high that as the day approaches, models will backpeddle until we get virtually no rain from the system at all. That said, the dry pattern does have to break eventually, surely. Just not sure when that will be.

Coventry has just over 40 mm of rain so far this October. Not immense, but better than September, which saw only 23.4 mm.

[Timmer01]

Had just under an inch for October so far ( 24.8mm). This morning met office had heavy rain forecast for Nottingham on Wednesday night and Thursday daytime. At 1600 today they have changed their minds to light rain Wednesday night and showers for Thursday so November looks like the rest of the year- promise of rain which never arrives. Only 325 mm up till 30th October so the 700mm average still looks a long way off.

[Staffordshire]

Pathetic! Last night the rain paused about 30 miles to the west of me held of there for as long as it could like it was trying to avoid my area? Then when the mod-heavy stuff arrived the section passing us was very thin so we only got about 45 mins... Ugh.

Oh and then obviously it intensified.

[picog]

Our lucky day yesterday, we got rain, bringing the total for October to 41mm. Probably about 50-66% of what we should have, but better than many months so far this year.

[TonyH]

Surely Wednesday to Thursday will deliver heavy rainfall for the Midlands? Looking rather drier again for the outlook into next week.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Tonyh

[cyclonic happiness]

Funny how it seems that, although we've had a couple of reasonable spells of rain, we are still nowhere near being out of the woods.

We'll need to have a heck of alot over the next 6 months to stop a drought proper next summer! and that's one thing we shan't get.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, well, well, is this our first weather warning since last winter??

"Heavy and locally thundery rain is expected at times during Thursday. Whilst southwest England and south Wales are at risk throughout, over central southern England and the Midlands the main risk period is the late afternoon and evening. The public should be aware that as a result of the heavy rain there could be standing water issues that lead to some local travel disruption"

Could be interesting?

[picog]

Looks like you guys in the central midlands could get a reasonable bit of rain — may be it will shift west a little? Hopefully, it will not go too far east and miss us altogether!

[Staffordshire]

Pfft, believe it when I see it!

[conor123]

Yet again looking relatively rainless now, tonights weather front looks nothing more than some drizzle now and tommorow nights area of rain will probably stay east of here.

[Timmer01]

2 mm overnight. Another damp squib of a front.Looked like more on the radar but must have been in the upper atmosphere.

British Isles: Rainfall radar

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2300 2330 0000 0030 0100 0130 0200 0230 '>0300 0330 0400 0430 0500

[picog]

Yet again looking relatively rainless now, tonights weather front looks nothing more than some drizzle now and tommorow nights area of rain will probably stay east of here.

Yes, disappointing yet again. From the local weather forecast, I was expecting torrential rain, up to 25 mm, but we got just 1.5mm.

[The PIT]

Got 59.7 mm for October which scuppers any chance of the driest autumn ever. 6.5 mm for this month so far and a light shower today didn't add much so far. Watching the radar too see if anything does come our way. Now watching too see if we get the driest year ever recorded 1975 I would say 50/50 whether we beat that or not.

[TonyH]

Neck and neck with 1921 for the driest ever year in Coventry, well back to when records began in 1870 at least:

With just 41.4mm of rain (39% below normal), this has been the driest October in Coventry since 1995 (28.1mm).

Looking back through the archives, we find that only three October months in the city have been drier than 2011 since 1978 (1985, 1988 and 1995).

This has been the driest first ten months of the year (355.0mm) in Coventry since 1921 (352.8mm). With rainfall records for the city dating back to 1870, we find that only 1921 is the only year to have recorded a lower January to October rainfall total in this 141 year period.

October 2011 has been the 17th out of the past 19 months in Coventry t0 register a rainfall total below the 1981-2010 30 year average for the city. In this period, there has been a 26% rainfall deficit in the city.

http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/

[Weather Boy]

Well a paltry 20 mm or so in October at my location but we've had more than that over 3rd and 4th Nov (23 mm in total, 17 mm on night of 3rd/4th the latter being the wettest day here since August 2010). But it's going to take more than that to make a difference with only one of the last 12 months being wetter than average. Indeed, with the outlook for the next two weeks, there's no guarantee that November will be wetter than average, despite this one off event.

So, that heavy rain is probably a case of stopping shortages being made worse rather than the start of a resolution to the drought.

[picog]

The in depth/technical model discussions posted in the last day or two are not good if looking for rain — the outlook appears predominantly dry. Oh dear ...

[Eabie]

November was off to a good start for once here in Coventry: 9 mm on the 2nd, 10 mm on the 3rd, and 8.6 mm on the 4th. But now it's looking like high pressure to the UK's east is going to keep off rain for weeks, possibly. And so it continues...

[TonyH]

It would be gracious of you to provide an acknowledgment link to the Bablake school weather station site there Eabie, for the use of their data.

[TonyH]

http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/

[Eabie]

^ I guess you're right, it would be.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Eabie

[picog]

Thanks to the persistent, soaking misty drizzle that we have had now for over 2 days and which has contributed a little under 3mm, our total rain for November is nearly on 25mm. With the rain apparently forecast for the rest of this week, we will surely be over 1 inch by the weekend, and who knows after that?