2012 UK Drought

[Ben_Cambs]

32mm has fallen so far this November here. Not bad, but it's looking dry for the forseeable future..

[picog]

What happened to the rain we were forecast today? There's nothing on the radar, and the MetO have sun for us now, rather than the inch of rain predicted just yesterday.

[picog]

Yeah, at last, some proper heavy and persistent rain. Good for the areas that need it, but rather different for those than don't.

[Staffordshire]

Note how much it has dyed down after passing the welsh border...

Like always.

[Coast]

It's not over yet:

'Winter drought' could mean hosepipe bans next year

The first winter drought in almost a decade could mean water rationing in certain parts of Britain over Christmas and hosepipe bans in the coming year.

Usually droughts hit in the spring or summer and the last drought permit issued at this time of year was in 2003.

However the exceptional weather conditions of the last year mean many areas of the country in the Midlands, East Anglia and South East still have low water levels into autumn and winter. Anglian Water have applied for a winter drought permit in East Anglia to stop water running low over Christmas and New Year. The water company says it must be allowed to drain extra water from the River Nene to feed its reservoirs in Pitsford and Rutland Water, which are only half full, over the Festive Period. The shortage of water in East Anglia was caused by the harsh winter followed by the driest spring in 80 years and half as much rain as usual in autumn.

Britain is already on course for the warmest November since records began 353 years ago, according to forecasters, with some of the highest temperatures ever recorded just six weeks from Christmas The counties of Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire only had half the normal rainfall during September and October and with the mild weather continuing this month there are concerns the water reserves will reach a critical level next summer. "This sequence of weather we have just been through means there is a possibility we will have a [hosepipe ban] next spring," said a Ciaran Nelson, of Anglian Water.

Farmers are also irrigating at night time to reduce the amount of water evaporating and prevent restrictions being brought in. And consumers are already being asked to 'ration' themselves by only feeding plants that really need it and taking short showers. "It may seem strange as you usually think of having to save water when it is hot," continued Mr Nelson. "But in fact this is the time of year when we need to save water the most as the reservoirs should be filling up ready for next spring. "The lack of water is the result of consecutive dry seasons. We had 20 per cent less rainfall than usual last winter, the driest spring in 80 years, then 50 per cent less rain in September. "We have had a whole year of unusually dry weather."

Anglian Water has applied to the Environment Agency to drain an extra 17 million litres a day from the River Nene between December and April. If it is granted in the next couple of weeks it will be able to fill its reservoirs at Pitsford and Rutland, which are currently only 56 per cent full. Anglian Water is also spending an extra £6.8 million to reduce the number of water leaks in the region and recruiting 60 more leakage experts. David Hawley, a manager for the Environment Agency, asked residents not to waste water and to ensure they turn off taps when brushing their teeth. "Balancing the needs of people, businesses and the environment for water has been a difficult job this year. "Farmers have been working hard to make the best use of the water they have and we've been busy planning supplies and monitoring what's going on. "But if we have a dry winter, this could make next year far more difficult for everyone than this year has been. "That's why we're asking everyone to look at their water use and see how it can be reduced now so that there's enough to go around next year too."

Caroline Spelman, the Environment Secretary, said the country needs to watch water use now to ensure there is enough for the summer. "Farmers, water companies and other abstractors have worked really hard over the summer to help keep our rivers flowing and head off any threat of hosepipe bans," she said. "Northamptonshire and South Lincolnshire are amongst a number of areas taking steps now to safeguard the water supply next summer and, despite our reputation as a rainy country, planning for unreliable rainfall is something we all need to do."

http://www.telegraph...-next-year.html

[Terminal Moraine]

Carsington Water, the nearest reservoir to where I live, is the lowest I've seen it since it was opened in about 1992, even in 1995/96 I don't remember it being lower.

The level was well below normal at the end of last summer and well into the winter when a wet February saved the day and allowed it to be filled up from the river Derwent. This year it's much lower and we really are relying on enough rain during the winter to bring the Derwent into flood and allow the reservoir to be filled.

I understand that Derwent and Bamford reservoirs further north in the Peak are also very low but I haven't been up there to see for myself.

[Coast]

There has been a marked lack of rainfall across parts of the UK this year, with some areas seeing their driest January to October period on record. The Midlands and East Anglia have been particularly badly affected, but the whole of the south of the country is well down on normal rainfall levels.

Leicestershire, Warwickshire, Rutland and Shropshire have all had their driest first ten months of the year in the Met Office records, which go back to at 1910. Each of those counties has had just over 60% of the normal amount of rainfall we would expect for the period. Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Huntingdonshire and Worcestershire are not far behind, as they have all notched up totals which are the second or third driest in the records.

There is no specific reason for this year’s dry weather across the south – it is just down to the natural variability in the conditions we expect to see. This year we have seen long spells influenced by a ‘blocking pattern’, particularly in Spring and during this Autumn. This is where a high pressure over Europe – and close to the UK– blocks the weather systems which come in off the Atlantic, sending them further to the north. These weather systems usually bring rain with them – so when they’re blocked, we see less rainfall.

The counterpart of this is that areas on the edge of the blocking pattern can see higher than average rainfall, as the weather systems are regularly pushed past the same area. This is why some parts of Scotland have seen unusually wet conditions. For example, Dumfriesshire, Clackmannanshire, and Fifeshire have all seen their third wettest January to October periods in the records – all having 30-40% more rain than you would expect.

http://metofficenews...eather-in-2011/

[TEITS]

Some people won't be happy that Anglian Water are planning on extracting more water from the River Nene. One of the places they do this is in Wansford where my parents live which is 5miles W of Peterborough. Recently complaints were made about dropping river levels which was highlighted in our local newspaper. However those who complained were mostly anglers.

This is quiet exceptional for our area because Anglian Water are very good at managing our water supplies despite living in one of the driest areas of the UK. However even for here the lack of rainfall has been incredible. The total rainfall for Spring and Autumn so far is 77mm!!

[Weather Boy]

I went for a long walk in the local countryside and with a few exceptions, everything was dry as dust. It looked like August rather than November. So the one-off hefty fall of rain that happened a couple of weeks ago (23 mm over 36 hours) seems to have made little long term difference.

It seems likely that November will be another below average month (there has been virtually nothing aside from the rain I have just mentioned) meaning that since August 2010 only one month has seen above average rain in this location - January- and that was only about 20% over.

[cyclonic happiness]

Funny isn't it, they are saying that this is the warmest november since records began, but you'd expect it to be wet along with it wouldn't you?

Shows just how much the synoptics for the southeast of the UK have changed imo.

[TonyH]

Well its one of the warmest but certain not to be the warmest on record.

November looks like ending up quite dry again for the Midlands perhaps only around half the average.

[picog]

Despite the forecast of unsettled and wet weather, it is still amazingly unwet! Is this because of the euro high preventing rain-bearing fronts from crossing the country?

[Teesdale]

Despite the forecast of unsettled and wet weather, it is still amazingly unwet! Is this because of the euro high preventing rain-bearing fronts from crossing the country?

Very little rainfall forecast for the driest areas for rest of this month.

Southerly tracking lows across Midlands or S England or prob best best for rainfall in winter months in these areas.

Westerly dominated flows mean the vast majority of rainfall occurs in the upland western areas with the Eastern parts in a rain shadow.

[The PIT]

Rainfall 115 mm for Autumn so far should get a little bit more before the month ends but nothing massive then it's all eyes on the record for the driest year ever recorded here.

[Bobby]

Again it seems the rain this week has been downgraded. Looks things may finally kick off next week but it always seems to be next week doesn't it. Looks like November is going to be drier than average here at 110mm here so far. Autumn as a whole though has seen 505mm so far which is about normal. It seems the N/W - S/E rainshadow has been extra strong this year for whatever reason.

Edited November 24, 2011 by Barb-

[Terminal Moraine]

It seems very unlikely that November will reach the 30 year average here. With just a week to go we've had 44.3mm compared to 106.3 mm as the average for the whole month.

As for the annual total, it's going to take a wet 5 weeks to prevent this year coming in with the lowest amount in the last 34 years.

168.7 mm required to bring the current total of 670.5mm up to that of 1991.

Further back still 1975 and 1976 were even drier than 1991. I was recording at a different site then but an overlap of the two records for 8 years would indicate an annual total here around 750-760mm for those years so 80-90mm required to equal that.

[Aaron]

Very little rainfall forecast for the driest areas for rest of this month.

Southerly tracking lows across Midlands or S England or prob best best for rainfall in winter months in these areas.

Westerly dominated flows mean the vast majority of rainfall occurs in the upland western areas with the Eastern parts in a rain shadow.

Very little rainfall forecast for the driest areas for rest of this month.

Southerly tracking lows across Midlands or S England or prob best best for rainfall in winter months in these areas.

Westerly dominated flows mean the vast majority of rainfall occurs in the upland western areas with the Eastern parts in a rain shadow.

Hm, yes please.. that would be lovely

[cyclonic happiness]

I have the feeling we'll be seeing 'real' snow before we see 'real' rain!!

(reverse psychology, )

[picog]

Once again, the forecast rain that seemed so certain yesterday evening seems to be fizzling — from the radar there doesn't appear to be much headed towards the areas that need it.

[cyclonic happiness]

Just starting to drizzle ahead of the main front, I still think we'll squeeze around 10mm out of this?

Edited November 29, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[picog]

Just starting to drizzle ahead of the main front, I still think we'll squeeze around 10mm out of this?

Short and sharp; a disappointing 2 mm here.

[TonyH]

Not so much again for the Midlands and east as the cold front weakens.

[Andy Bown]

Temperature dropping at a rate of 1c per hour post cold front and a lovely clearing sky just as the sun is setting, also a dramatic reduction in wind speed.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looked at the Mass of rain in Wales earlier with that squall and I thought a very nice dose of rain ahead but what did we get... 1mm!

Pathetic and the very dry Midlands continues as it was before.

[TonyH]

It has been one of the wetter months of year in Warwickshire though. Over 40mm so far for Coventry, however that's still well below average.

http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/

Edited November 29, 2011 by TonyH