2012 UK Drought

[Coast]

Interesting to see that several sources this morning are saying that Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman has called a drought summit next week. More bad news to follow?

Summer hosepipe ban a ‘strong possibility’ in Northampton after drought conditions

RESIDENTS are facing a summer of water restrictions because rainfall conditions in Northamptonshire have reached their worst level in 90 years. The region is in its first drought since 1996, and the Environment Agency has warned that without critical amounts of water in the next few months the town faces a difficult summer. The agency has urged residents to carefully consider their water usage in order to delay the strong possibility of a hosepipe ban.

Iain Page, the planning manager for water resources for Northamptonshire at the agency, said: “I know it seems strange to be talking about drought when there is still snow on the ground but that is a reflection of how serious this situation is. “We have had a perpetual lack of rainfall for many months, it is critical and the prospect for rain in the next few months is poor. “We are working closely with water companies, farmers, growers and environment charities to work through this difficult period. “Water is a precious resource and we all need to think about our usage to delay restrictions. We don’t want to alarm people, but this is a serious situation.â€

In November and December water levels in the River Nene were at the lowest for 40 years and in the 16 months leading up to January this year, its water flow was 20 per cent lower than the long term average, threatening the supply of water to the region. The levels dropped so low that at the end of last year Anglian Water was forced to apply for a special permit to continue taking water for the river. But the permit runs out next month, and the Environment Agency is unlikely to grant another because of the implications on the river, should the weather continue, leaving the company short of supply. The Environment Agency has the power to restrict water usage by farmers and growers in the region throughout the summer, but insisted it was an “absolute last resortâ€.

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman has called a drought summit next week.

http://www.northampt...tions_1_3521457

Spectre of 1976 as London gets a drought alert

London and the South-East are facing a severe drought with water levels already lower than they were before the long hot summer of 1976, it was revealed today. Thames Water, the capital's supplier, warned that unless the next few months bring deluges of rain a hosepipe ban and other urgent measures will have to be imposed. This follows one of the driest winters on record, which has reduced river levels and left underground stores of water critically low.

"Ground water levels in parts of our region are lower than they were during the 1976 drought, following below average rainfall for 18 of the last 23 months," a spokeswoman for the company said. "It's now not a case of whether we'll be having a drought this year, it's a case of when and how bad." The summer of 1976 saw the worst drought in generations, with reservoirs running dry in the baking heat and thousands of homes cut off, forcing people to fill their kettles from public standpipes in the street. The spokeswoman for Thames, which supplies eight million homes, said it was too early to say if drastic measures like standpipes would be needed. She said the crisis could not be solved by April showers alone.

"Droughts are not caused by a few dry weeks and they aren't solved by a few wet ones. We need 120 to 130 per cent of long-term average rainfall from February to April to reduce the risk of a drought. All of us can help by using less water." The Environment Agency says the worst-affected regions include the South-East, Midlands and East Anglia. In some areas, underground supplies are already being used. Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman is holding a summit of water and environmental officials on Monday.

http://www.thisislon...rought-alert.do

[4wd]

We need a minister for drought appointing, that should sort it.

While not 'worryingly dry' here it is much drier than normal at this time of year.

February so far has produced just 5.2mm so it's hard to see an above average month even if it rains a lot the next two weeks.

March and April can be quite wet months but are equally likely to be on the dry side too.

Evaporation begins to increase rapidly now with typical early spring weather being blustery showers and drying winds.

[Aaron]

Precipitation totals

December: 63.8mm

January: 57.7mm

February: 10.9mm

All of February's precipitation is snow melt, no rain at all.

[summer blizzard]

There's been absolutely no rain here so far this February. Nada. Zilch. Just 10mm of snow melt.

It rained last Thursday although other than that, very dry.

[summer blizzard]

I must admit that i never realized how widespread things were bad although even here last March/April saw very early signs of drought stress before the summer.

As it is now, my hedges are yellow which i put down to the lack of rain.

[Aaron]

It rained last Thursday although other than that, very dry.

Yeah I believe there was but it didn't accumulate to anything

[damianslaw]

Its been a very dry first half to February here. Apart from the 5 inches of snow on the 4th, some very very light drizzle late on the 5th, and some freezing rain on the 8th we have had nothing. It seems ages since we had a proper deluge. Tomorrow will see some light rain but hardly enough to dampen the ground. Feb is often a dry month and spring our driest season - there is every reason to worry, our stockpiles are quite low so unless we see some exceptional heavy rain throughout spring the rest of the country won't be able to rely on the Lake District reservoirs.

[MP-R]

No chance of a drought here in the West Country - rain was abundant last summer after a very dry March and April. The autumn had a spread share of rain and December was wet. January was average and February is likely to be below average.

The average rain for here by my rain guage in March is 75.5mm so as long as we get near that, things should be fine here. I feel for the east and southeast though, and increasingly parts of the Midlands.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Although I have not measured the rainfall here (due to not owning a weather station), the amount of times I have seen it raining in the past few months seems to be less frequent that what I usually get. Feels like most days has been rain-free, or with just odd spots of light rain and drizzle. There has also been the occasional period of heavy rain and a few sprinkling of showers. December last year, however, delivered a reasonable amount of precipitation. But I must admit it is getting troublesome for areas who have not seen much of the rain.

Could really do with more in the way of Low Pressure to increase the risk of wetter weather over the next few months to make up for the lack of rainfall a bit, perhaps with a good few slammings of heavy rain via prolonged thundery Spanish Plumes.

[The PIT]

Last years total rainfall here 569.5 mm Average 826mm

So far Jan 82 mm averagerage and 15.2 mm so far for Feb. The zonal outlook should mean more rain but all depends how far north the high pressure is and the rain shadow effect as well. If we get a dry spring they could well be major problems.

[Ben_Cambs]

According to the Cambridge Botanical garden data, 380.4mm fell during 2011 here. The 1970-2000 average is 557mm, so last year ended up with a defecit of 176.6mm when compared to that average, and adding in the January defecit (30.7mm fell, average is around 45mm) which brings the defecit since January last year to 191mm.

To even out the rainfall defecit, spring would have to give around 310mm of rain here! It's seriously going to take a while to recover from this drought..

[Polar Maritime]

It's the 6th dryest year in this catchment area since records began.

[UV-RAY]

Oh what I would give just to have a dry Winter/Summer/Autumn and Spring, you people just don't know how lucky you are. Said in a Monty Python's "Life Of Brian voice"!

[damianslaw]

According to the Cambridge Botanical garden data, 380.4mm fell during 2011 here. The 1970-2000 average is 557mm, so last year ended up with a defecit of 176.6mm when compared to that average, and adding in the January defecit (30.7mm fell, average is around 45mm) which brings the defecit since January last year to 191mm.

To even out the rainfall defecit, spring would have to give around 310mm of rain here! It's seriously going to take a while to recover from this drought..

The weather has a habit of going in cycles when it comes to lengthy dry, wet and average periods. Looking back we had a lengthy dry spell between 1988 and summer 1992, punctuated by some short lived wet spells such as spring 2002, then a lengthy wet period up until spring 1995 culminating in the very wet winter of 94/95, then a lengthy very dry period between spring 95 and 97 with two very dry winters on the trot, then a very wet spell up to winter 2000/2001 culminating in the very wet autumn of 2000, then a long average period up until spring 2005, then a return to very dry conditions up until spring 2007, then an average spell punctuated by some very wet summers culminating in the very November of 2009, then a return to very dry weather with two very dry springs and winters on the trot in 2010, 2011.

The dry periods have tended to last approx two years i.e. spring 95-spring 97 and spring 05- spring 07, so going by those time periods we are now overdue a return to at least average period for rainfall, indeed more likely a wet spell, watch the azores high dissapear in March and northern blocking return with the longwave trough stuck over the country again.. but this time the wet conditions will last through the summer and into the autumn and winter.

I remember the day when they announced a hosepipe ban in 2010 up here was the day when the summer rains arrived... mother nature always balances herself out.

[TEITS]

According to the Cambridge Botanical garden data, 380.4mm fell during 2011 here. The 1970-2000 average is 557mm, so last year ended up with a defecit of 176.6mm when compared to that average, and adding in the January defecit (30.7mm fell, average is around 45mm) which brings the defecit since January last year to 191mm.

To even out the rainfall defecit, spring would have to give around 310mm of rain here! It's seriously going to take a while to recover from this drought..

Apparently for our region its been the driest 16 month period since records began.

My biggest concern isn't just how much rainfall will occur during Spring but what if we experience a hot, dry summer!

[danm]

BBC weatherwise video on the drought risk: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/17065385

[picog]

Apparently for our region its been the driest 16 month period since records began.

My biggest concern isn't just how much rainfall will occur during Spring but what if we experience a hot, dry summer!

Absolutely! Last year we "got away with it" because the summer was very average, often coolish, with relatively few hot spells.

Edited February 17, 2012 by picog

[Weather Boy]

I'm a bit surprised about the media, and indeed people on this thread, talking about a dry winter being a particular problem. In my location, we had 20% above average in December, just short of average in January and quite dry (so far - nearly all snow melt) in February, so this winter is not looking notably dry.

I think the problem is more that the winter is no more than average and it comes off the back of a very dry preceding year. In my location December was the only month in the last 12 that has been wetter than average. Many parts of the country had a crazily dry spring, followed by dry-ish/average summer followed by a very dry autumn, leaving reservoirs desperate for a wetter than average winter, which just hasn't happened!

It won't stop me wanting a hot dry summer, so wet spring please!

[Summer Sun]

Does anyone know where I can find what the yearly avergae rain fall is for Darlington? The start of 2012 has been very dry only 32mm of rain has fallen so far this year with only 5mm in the first 17 day's of this month.

[picog]

Could be a bit of a wet summer for Wales and southern England.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euPrecMon.gif

[The PIT]

Could be a bit of a wet summer for Wales and southern England.

http://www.cpc.ncep....3/euPrecMon.gif

Too early to say could well change by the end of spring.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes, the dry period will end emphatically sooner or later.....I hve been leaning towards a warm summer but TBH I think its cards could be marked from the outset unless we get a wet spring.

A wet summer would suit me down to the ground......2007 was joyous.....no hot weather, could sleep at night comfortably and there was some lovely convective activity. Beats hot and sunny any day...........and just so people are in no doubt where I sit in regards to summer- the wetter the better!

I just LOVE watching monsoon like intensity rain beating down

Edited February 17, 2012 by CreweCold

[Eugene]

Those CPC long range charts change all the time and are not to be relied on, saying that the European monsoon typically starts in June so an unsettled June isnt out of the question after a dry blocked spring.

[Aaron]

Yes, the dry period will end emphatically sooner or later.....I hve been leaning towards a warm summer but TBH I think its cards could be marked from the outset unless we get a wet spring.

A wet summer would suit me down to the ground......2007 was joyous.....no hot weather, could sleep at night comfortably and there was some lovely convective activity. Beats hot and sunny any day...........and just so people are in no doubt where I sit in regards to summer- the wetter the better!

I just LOVE watching monsoon like intensity rain beating down

I wish we could get the rainfall of June 2007 with the temperatures of.. June 2006.. that'd be nice for me, not hot but warm, and very wet.

[pip22]

I remember April during 2006 to be a wet and showery with some longer spells of rain in places. especially in the middle of the month. I think.