Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[sebastiaan1973]

Over here in the Netherlands 1 december till 5 january reached the third place with an average temperature of 6.7c, just behind 1935 and 2007.

[Eugene]

This winter is turning into an absolute disaster, zonal all the way into FI, even next weeks high is a mild high.

[TEITS]

I feel its a bit early to be calling this winter a disaster. Lets suppose the rest of Jan is mild but then we have a very cold, wintry spell during Feb that lasts between 7-14 days. I personally would be content with this. Even the classic winters of the 1980s had prolonged mild spells and wasn't constant blizzards. The winter of 1987 was a good example because apart from the severe E,ly outbreak the rest of the winter was mild. Lets not forget that extreme cold spells like Nov/Dec 2010, 62/63, 47, 78/79 are really exceptional.

[shedhead]

I feel its a bit early to be calling this winter a disaster. Lets suppose the rest of Jan is mild but then we have a very cold, wintry spell during Feb that lasts between 7-14 days. I personally would be content with this. Even the classic winters of the 1980s had prolonged mild spells and wasn't constant blizzards. The winter of 1987 was a good example because apart from the severe E,ly outbreak the rest of the winter was mild. Lets not forget that extreme cold spells like Nov/Dec 2010, 62/63, 47, 78/79 are really exceptional.

Good post Eye. Lets face it, we could write of Jan as mild, but if we have a very cold Feb how would that differ from Winter overall last year, apart from being the opposite way around. It's rare to get 3 cold months across a Winter and it's also rare to get 3 mild ones, so simply going by the law of averages I'd expect Feb to go a long way to redressing the overall balance.

[Eugene]

Quite pleased with the output this morning, a drier picture in the week ahead until the weekend at least and i think not as mild as it was looking a few days ago, temps might be near average in inland parts of england and wales with some all day fog and low cloud in parts, some people forget its only the first half of January with a still weak sun.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I feel its a bit early to be calling this winter a disaster. Lets suppose the rest of Jan is mild but then we have a very cold, wintry spell during Feb that lasts between 7-14 days. I personally would be content with this. Even the classic winters of the 1980s had prolonged mild spells and wasn't constant blizzards. The winter of 1987 was a good example because apart from the severe E,ly outbreak the rest of the winter was mild. Lets not forget that extreme cold spells like Nov/Dec 2010, 62/63, 47, 78/79 are really exceptional.

The overall CET of a winter doesen't always tell you much about a winter's weather. With winter 1986-87, it was only notable for having a severe two week spell mid January, and the rest of the winter was not special - hardly what can be reasonably described as a cold winter overall is it. Take out the 14 day period 7th - 20th Jan 1987, and winter 1986-87 has a CET of 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Winter 2010-11 has a similar story, it was poor after the early date of Dec 27th, with conditions average at best and any cold spells limited to rex blocking with little in the way of northern blocking, and Feb 2011 was very mild and devoid of anything wintry. Take out the 1st - 27th Dec 2010, and winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it ended up.

[leicsnow]

While some winters like 86/87 and 10/11 are known for their cold spells that didn't cover the whole of winter some like 62/63 and 09/10 are known for being cold throughout.

[damianslaw]

The overall CET of a winter doesen't always tell you much about a winter's weather. With winter 1986-87, it was only notable for having a severe two week spell mid January, and the rest of the winter was not special - hardly what can be reasonably described as a cold winter overall is it. Take out the 14 day period 7th - 20th Jan 1987, and winter 1986-87 has a CET of 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Winter 2010-11 has a similar story, it was poor after the early date of Dec 27th, with conditions average at best and any cold spells limited to rex blocking with little in the way of northern blocking, and Feb 2011 was very mild and devoid of anything wintry. Take out the 1st - 27th Dec 2010, and winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it ended up.

Another good example is winter 04/05 which up until mid Feb was very mild but we then had a 4 week period of consistently below average temps, nothing exceptional but still a whole month of quite cold weather for the time of year, yet many people don't mention the cold period of mid feb-mid march 05.

Another similiar event happened in 05/06 late feb-late march saw a 4 week cold spell.

The first half of March on average is colder than the first two thirds of December especially in Scotland and N England, people forget how cold March can be and yes though it is classed as spring, if the cold lasted well into March which I think it will do then our ratings of the winter 11/12 season for cold and snow will increase markedly. My view is winter 11/12 will go down as one of two very different halves the complete role reversal of winter 10/11.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

The overall CET of a winter doesen't always tell you much about a winter's weather. With winter 1986-87, it was only notable for having a severe two week spell mid January, and the rest of the winter was not special - hardly what can be reasonably described as a cold winter overall is it. Take out the 14 day period 7th - 20th Jan 1987, and winter 1986-87 has a CET of 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Winter 2010-11 has a similar story, it was poor after the early date of Dec 27th, with conditions average at best and any cold spells limited to rex blocking with little in the way of northern blocking, and Feb 2011 was very mild and devoid of anything wintry. Take out the 1st - 27th Dec 2010, and winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it ended up.

Agree that the overall CET doesn't indicate whether it was generally that temperature throughout or whether it was punctuated by extremes, but just don't get this obsession with taking out the warm or cold bits and saying what it would have been. The point of an average is that it is going to be skewed by extremes, whether mild or warm. We could always take out the warmest or coldest bits of any season and then claim it was just average. So don't get what the point is....

[November13]

_{I am not a pessimist by nature. However we are heading to the half way point of winter and the previous weather and future models all indicate a snowless largely frostless winter. It is the equivelent of a summer without a warm period or a really extreme heatwave event. That would be described as a poor summer. A winter devoid of snow and ice is just an extended autumn. That is what we are still in. The temperatures and wind etc could all have happened in October there is nothing wintry about this weather. Sorry guys but the rest of Jan looks terrible. This leaves us with one month February to redeem us. Personally I am just not expecting anything anymore from this winter. I have now resigned it to the dustbin. Roll on next winter.I think Spring will come in late February this year even in Scotland!}

[damianslaw]

_{I am not a pessimist by nature. However we are heading to the half way point of winter and the previous weather and future models all indicate a snowless largely frostless winter. It is the equivelent of a summer without a warm period or a really extreme heatwave event. That would be described as a poor summer. A winter devoid of snow and ice is just an extended autumn. That is what we are still in. The temperatures and wind etc could all have happened in October there is nothing wintry about this weather. Sorry guys but the rest of Jan looks terrible. This leaves us with one month February to redeem us. Personally I am just not expecting anything anymore from this winter. I have now resigned it to the dustbin. Roll on next winter.I think Spring will come in late February this year even in Scotland!}

I suspect the reason why some people are writing off the rest of the winter in terms of snow and cold prospects is because the current immediate output being shown by the models show no sign of any cold and snow on the horizon, but please remember these are only reliable within the reliable timeframe i.e. out to 6 days - and obviously you can't take anything from them in terms of potential prospects for the rest of the winter- so I don't agree with your assessment that the models are all indicating a snowless and largely frostless winter - your words not mine this is categorically a flawed statement in every sense of the word.. There are a good 7-8 weeks left of the winter yet and March can pack a wintry punch as well.

I have to say in my opinion such views are very short sighted - and I suspect it is inpatience that is dictating such pessimistic mood.

Still every one is entitled to there opinion and everyone is entitled to disagree with other peoples' views, if this was mid Feb then yes I would tend to agree with such opinions but it isn't and all the long term signals suggest a major pattern change within the next couple of weeks to something much colder.

Edited January 7, 2012 by damianslaw

[November13]

I don't agree. A good indicator of weather is the predominant feature of the recent past and current weather. November was the mildest on record. December was average but snowless and frostless except for a few odd days. The pattern has been windy and wet and largely mild.That is the predominant pattern. If we are now looking to March or late February for winter to arrive then we are already admitting defeat. Severe frosts and lengthy cold spells are not a feature of March weather which is really the start of spring. To date the models have been about 80% correct with the mild wet and windy. The meto long term is mild are we now hoping for miracles. Surely winter is December,Jan and Feb if there is no cold in these months then it has not been a proper winter.

[Peter H]

_{I am not a pessimist by nature. However we are heading to the half way point of winter and the previous weather and future models all indicate a snowless largely frostless winter. It is the equivelent of a summer without a warm period or a really extreme heatwave event. That would be described as a poor summer. A winter devoid of snow and ice is just an extended autumn. That is what we are still in. The temperatures and wind etc could all have happened in October there is nothing wintry about this weather. Sorry guys but the rest of Jan looks terrible. This leaves us with one month February to redeem us. Personally I am just not expecting anything anymore from this winter. I have now resigned it to the dustbin. Roll on next winter.I think Spring will come in late February this year even in Scotland!}

Yep, would tend to agree with you.

Think the weather patterns appear to be in something of a rut at the moment, and the fact that virtually all of the rest of Europe is so mild as well.(when daytime maxima should be well below freezing) would lead me to conclude this winter is a complete write off. Even Moscow isn't that cold.

Still, it's saving me quite a bit on home heating oil at present !

but it isn't and all the long term signals suggest a major pattern change within the next couple of weeks to something much colder

Not according to the met office:

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Sunday 5 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected to remain close to normal throughout the period but may fall a little below across Scotland and Northern Ireland as we head towards February. The risk of overnight frosts will therefore continue in many areas. Rainfall amounts may be slightly below average at first across England and Wales but most of the UK will see a return to normal rainfall by the end of January. Amounts of sunshine should be fairly usual for the time of year with perhaps eastern parts of the UK seeing the best of the sunshine.

although I'm not sure what "temperatures a little below normal for Scotland and Northern Ireland" means. A few days of slush ?

Surely winter is December,Jan and Feb if there is no cold in these months then it has not been a proper winter.

Quite correct.

.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Peter H

[mcweather]

The lack of patience by some on here makes me chuckle. Writing off winter on January 7th.

[phil nw.]

While some winters like 86/87 and 10/11 are known for their cold spells that didn't cover the whole of winter some like 62/63 and 09/10 are known for being cold throughout.

I would have to say that Winter 62/63 was a complete Winter in so much that the cold dominated throughout the season.

My signature tells the story.

I can`t think of another Winter in my lifetime that was so completely cold from start to finish.It is one that i am never likely to experience again- but will never forget.

[knocker]

I can`t think of another Winter in my lifetime that was so completely cold from start to finish.It is one that i am never likely to experience again- but will never forget.

Nor me and I hope never to experience again.

[November13]

The lack of patience by some on here makes me chuckle. Writing off winter on January 7th.

Yes but I think we can quite accurately say there will be no cold in the next 10 days. So that takes us to the 17th of Jan. Then there will only be 6 weeks left of winter. We will have already had more than half our winter without a cold spell. To my mind Jan is our best month for snow and ice. The arctic is at it's lowest ebb and daylight is short. To rely on February for our winter that hasn't delivered is clutching at the straws at the fag end of our winter.

[Great Plum]

Yes but I think we can quite accurately say there will be no cold in the next 10 days. So that takes us to the 17th of Jan. Then there will only be 6 weeks left of winter. We will have already had more than half our winter without a cold spell. To my mind Jan is our best month for snow and ice. The arctic is at it's lowest ebb and daylight is short. To rely on February for our winter that hasn't delivered is clutching at the straws at the fag end of our winter.

May I refer the right honourable gentlemen to the Februarys in 1986, 1978 and 1991...

Granted, with the exception of 2009, February has been a benign month in the last 20 years... Whilst December has actually cooled slightly over the last 30 years, the same certainly isn't true of Feb...

I think we are 'overdue' a cold Feb...

[mcweather]

Yes but I think we can quite accurately say there will be no cold in the next 10 days. So that takes us to the 17th of Jan. Then there will only be 6 weeks left of winter. We will have already had more than half our winter without a cold spell. To my mind Jan is our best month for snow and ice. The arctic is at it's lowest ebb and daylight is short. To rely on February for our winter that hasn't delivered is clutching at the straws at the fag end of our winter.

you mean Like 1916 1917 1929 1933 1937 1941 1946 19471954 1955 1956 1966 1977, 1986 1969 1978 AND 1991and 1996.

[leicsnow]

May I refer the right honourable gentlemen to the Februarys in 1986, 1978 and 1991...

Granted, with the exception of 2009, February has been a benign month in the last 20 years... Whilst December has actually cooled slightly over the last 30 years, the same certainly isn't true of Feb...

I think we are 'overdue' a cold Feb...

In recent years, what about 2010? That was decent. February 2007 had a short but potent blast. 2006, 2005, and 2004 weren't exactly benign either.

you mean Like 1916 1917 1929 1933 1937 1941 1946 19471954 1955 1956 1966 1977, 1986 1969 1978 AND 1991and 1996.

Legend post.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Tellow

[Snowy Easterly]

you mean Like 1916 1917 1929 1933 1937 1941 1946 19471954 1955 1956 1966 1977, 1986 1969 1978 AND 1991and 1996.

you missed out 63 lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

0perational flirting with easterly, 12Z gfs, TEITS did say after 06Z an easterly may be possible, lets hope it is, even a half hearted weak easterly still okay

[A Winter's Tale]

In recent years, what about 2010? That was decent. February 2007 had a short but potent blast. 2006, 2005, and 2004 weren't exactly benign either.

February 2010 only really saw snow during the last week when a front moved northwards over the country and met cold air. It was quite a cold month overall and was close to being a subzero month in Scotland but it probably was the month of that particular winter that lacked the same punch of cold and snow.

February 2007, meh, December 2011 had two events better than that. But I do recall having patchy lying snow at the end of one day where snow showers were quite regular and heavy. At the time I thought it was amazing. It was the best snow event of that winter too. The thing about the winters of 06/07 and 07/08 is that they did have quite a few cold snaps (albeit short) but they really did lack the punch that some areas saw in 2011, and during 2009 and 2010 and all the other years before. The temperatures during those cold spells would typically reach a maximum of 3/4c and a minimum of 0C with some sleety snow that never did lay. A winter that has lying snow is enough for me, that's why I tend to have fond memories of winter's before December 2006.

I can remember in either late 2006, 2007 or 2008 sometime, that at 22.00 I was in complete awe that the temperature was at 2C. It just shows you much things have changed in recent years!

[Eugene]

Wouldnt it be great if this winter went from a very bad first half to massively improving in the second half of winter from mid Jan til Feb 29th

A classic winter for two extremes from very mild to very cold.

[Isolated Frost]

Wouldnt it be great if this winter went from a very bad first half to massively improving in the second half of winter from mid Jan til Feb 29th

A classic winter for two extremes from very mild to very cold.

Urm... that very snowy December in Scotland and much of northern england, especially over hills.. which was below average for much of scotland and northern ireland was average here.

In fact it was only 1c to 1.5c above the averaqe for much of s england. Definitely not 'very mild'.