Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Peter H]

Read your quote again about the winter of 2009/10

Yes:

The only winter that comes anywhere close to what i remember from my childhood was 2009/2010, and even that wasn't a patch on 62/63. In fact, it didn't even compare to either 78/79 or 81/82.

It states in that link that winter 2009/10 was comparable with 46/47 and 78/79 in Northern Ireland and only 62/63 was significantly colder.

Well, it wasn't remotely comparable with 62/63 (and I know because I remember) nor 46/47 by all accounts. It wasn't even as good as 78/79, or 81/82, at least in this part of the UK.

Winters such as 20o9/2010 were commonplace when I was young, and nothing exceptional. Read the link again:

making it the coldest winter since 1978/79

and that really was what I said.

Had the weather in late November/December 2010 continued into January/February 2011 then it really would have been quite exceptional.

However, as we all know, it suddenly stopped on Boxing Day and went pear shaped after that, with February 2011 really ending up very mild indeed.

In these parts , winter 2011/2012 is yet another so called "large teapot" i.e. no snow and very little frost.

[sebastiaan1973]

De Bilt -18,9c last night, making it the fourth coldest night 'ever'. In Lelystad (Flevopolder) the temperature went down to -22.9c. Since 1985 it hasn't been this cold.

[lukemc]

Just thinking, do you think it is possible that this cold spell could exceed or at least rival December 2010 for its severity? As mentioned above Holland got temperatures below -20C last night - even though they are closer to the contiental landmass and more sheltered from the Atlantic I don't remember them being as cold as that during winter 2009-10 or December 2010. Did 1947 start with a similar setup with cold air moving across Europe eventually to hit the UK - we know that we get more Easterlys it is certainly not going to be mild!

Luke

[damianslaw]

Just thinking, do you think it is possible that this cold spell could exceed or at least rival December 2010 for its severity? As mentioned above Holland got temperatures below -20C last night - even though they are closer to the contiental landmass and more sheltered from the Atlantic I don't remember them being as cold as that during winter 2009-10 or December 2010. Did 1947 start with a similar setup with cold air moving across Europe eventually to hit the UK - we know that we get more Easterlys it is certainly not going to be mild!

Luke

The current cold spell could have rivalled Dec 2010 had we picked up an unstable easterly airflow - this would have meant snow for many places and the snow cover would have meant much lower nightime minima.

There is a massive cold pool over europe right now, but we continue to be on the western edge of this cold pool - had those heights centred more closer to the UK we would have seen those deep cold uppers advect our wat, alas it hasn't and won't happen now. But the long term theme is for heights to retrogress to Greenland, a northerly/northeasterly airstream would be a much snowier affair and with a very very cold arctic, we could then rival dec 2010 - but maxima would probably be higher thanks to the time of year - but not much, ice days can and do occur later in feb, 1986 being a good example. Minima can easily drop to -20 degrees in late Feb again see 1986 as an example and 2001 in the Highlands saw such temps but it does become more harder to achieve such temps later in Feb.

[jean91]

2 places have reached -20c in France it is Reims ok -19.7c and Mulhouse -20c

Mulhouse record low all time for February is at - 22.7c

Both had some snow followed by a clear night .

Now in my suburbs it is the coldest so early in the evening at nearly -8c!!!

December 2010 did not see such low temps.

[jean91]

Here is the night temps of this morning you can see the -20.1c of Mulhouse and the -19.6c of Reims

Météo-France warns that all places with snow or who are going to get snow may see temps really plunging sunday and especially the following nights to very deep.

Edited February 4, 2012 by jean91

[greybing]

whaoh

Here is the night temps of this morning you can see the -20.1c of Mulhouse and the -19.6c of Reims

Météo-France warns that all places with snow or who are going to get snow may see temps really plunging sunday and especially the following nights to very deep.

whoah

[Snowy Easterly]

how do place such as Italy, poland, france, serbia, Ukraine etc get so much snow, where does it all come from ? northern Italy got 3ft of snow, here we get overjoyed about 10cm of snow, why do they get so much more snow than us, I suppose Italy is surrounded by water so they get a lot of convection possibly ?

there was snow in Algeria aswell

Edited February 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Peter H]

But the long term theme is for heights to retrogress to Greenland, a northerly/northeasterly airstream would be a much snowier affair and with a very very cold arctic

Well, long term models aren't even going for that now. Back to southwesterlies and that dreaded high pressure to the south.

northern Italy got 3ft of snow, here we get overjoyed about 10cm of snow, why do they get so much more snow than us, I suppose Italy is surrounded by water so they get a lot of convection possibly ?

Indeed, I think it's called the El Niño effect. Places as far south as Nice and even Barcelona have been colder than Belfast for much of this winter.

Current conditions are quite mild with light rain, and still absolutely no snow at all this winter.

It doesn't look good.

[lukemc]

Well, long term models aren't even going for that now. Back to southwesterlies and that dreaded high pressure to the south.

Indeed, I think it's called the El Niño effect. Places as far south as Nice and even Barcelona have been colder than Belfast for much of this winter.

Current conditions are quite mild with light rain, and still absolutely no snow at all this winter.

It doesn't look good.

I do not think we are in an El Nino phase at the moment - I think it is a weak La Nina? Wasn't the winter of 1946-47 or 1962-63 a weak La Nina too?

What seems strange to me about this cold spell is that fact that very severe cold seems to be close to the UK (look at Benelux - I wouldn't be surprised if they are having thier coldest start to February since 1947 or at least 1963 or 1986 - and as they are normally only slightly colder than the UK at this time of year it is severe cold for them - well below average temperatures. And as mentioned on here, France too - they also must be having thier coldest spell of February weather since at least 1986. But looking at Ireland and Scotland - Scotland only seem to be around the average for the time of year (and Scotland is probably the snowiest place in the British Isles on average - and in December 2010 Scotland was colder than most of Europe except Scandinavia!) and Ireland may even be milder than average in some places. But I thought that the winter of 1946-47 was caused by a similar setup - a massive Siberian block (not a Greenland block like 1962-63)? And in 1946-47 we all know that Ireland, Scotland and Northern England were affected by the severe cold and snow so what seems to be keeping the western half of the British Isles on the milder side this time - is it the Azores High? - I would not expect it to be the Polar Vortex as it is supposed to have weakened dramatically.

Anyway, this month goes to show again that severe cold is still possible in this part of the world - and if this blocking persists does anyone think that an outcome simliar to February 1947 could be a possibility - these blocks seem to set in for a long time and surely if the Siberian block persisted for a long period of time surely it will be only just a matter of time until the whole of the British Isles is affected by the severe cold - even without Greenland blocking?

Does anyone have any previous examples of a cold spell that was severe in France/Benelux but average in Scotland/Ireland from previous years?

Luke

Edited February 5, 2012 by lukemc

[Polar Maritime]

Winter is here in my part of the world, around 12cm fell overnight.

There are very strong signals in the models for blocking to take hold over Greenland as updated by GP and stressed by JH in the MOD thread.

Anyone writing winter off now must be barmy.

The Models Trends & Signals have never looked as good for a long time for Cold and Snow!

EDIT-

JH commented last night that the models are looking very much in line with 1947.

He could of been drunk tho, as he was hitting the red wine.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Weather-history]

I'm not whining.

Sure sounds like it......

[kold weather]

Well, long term models aren't even going for that now. Back to southwesterlies and that dreaded high pressure to the south.

Indeed, I think it's called the El Niño effect. Places as far south as Nice and even Barcelona have been colder than Belfast for much of this winter.

Current conditions are quite mild with light rain, and still absolutely no snow at all this winter.

It doesn't look good.

Take it you still aren't really paying attention to what ANYONE is telling you Peter?

You are unlucky to be too fair west but this last week has been BITTER here in the SE, and I've got near on 15cms on the ground...

Also SW airflow...maybe for you good sir cause you are much closer to the Atlantic...but I think most of us will be either calm or have SE/E winds come this Friday...I'm willing to stake everything on that!

So please stop being so IMBY...not everyone is in such a dire place at the moment for snow and cold

[Peter H]

Take it you still aren't really paying attention to what ANYONE is telling you Peter?

You are unlucky to be too fair west but this last week has been BITTER here in the SE, and I've got near on 15cms on the ground.

..

A set up similar to December 2010 in February would be fine, but it simply isn't going to happen.

So please stop being so IMBY...not everyone is in such a dire place at the moment for snow and cold

An easterly in this neck of the woods usually brings snow of some sort, but not this time for some reason, and the signals for the rest of the month don't look good.

Still, things can change but I'm not optomistic .

0cm on of snow on the ground here. Don't know what all the fuss is about. .

Oh, and you're one to talk about IMBY. Not everyone in the UK is in such a great place for snow from an Easterly.

[Peter H]

Anyone writing winter off now must be barmy.

We'll see !

[lukemc]

Hi,

I have read over on TWO that the overly strong Azores High is the reason why the British Isles has not made the most of this European cold spell (in a nutshell blaming it for keeping the very severe cold away from the UK) - and some parts (Scotland and Ireland) have not been in the game at all as far as this cold spell is concerned? Is it the Azores High which is sending the coldest of the air south of the the UK rather than France - if pressure was lower over the Azores considering the same setup, would the UK being experincing cold on a par with 1987? How close did we come to January 1987 type cold considering the synoptics - and does anyone know weather this spell is rivialling 1987 in France and the Low Countries going by thier records - how does it compare over their?

Luke

[Eugene]

Alot of members have lost the plot to be honest, saw all these doom posts in MD and was expecting to see some very poor runs yet GFS 00Z is cold almost throughout and UKMO is cold still upto T+144 hrs, i thought upto T+72/96 hrs was the most we could trust, they quickly change their tune dont they and after the coldest February night since 1986 some still arent happy have they forgot what crap we have had to put up with before last week seems like it.

[TEITS]

Alot of members have lost the plot to be honest, saw all these doom posts in MD and was expecting to see some very poor runs yet GFS 00Z is cold almost throughout and UKMO is cold still upto T+144 hrs,

The doom posts aren't referring to this week because generally this week is going to be cold/very cold especially from midweek onwards. The doom posts are referring to what happens afterwards because the models have backed away from blocking towards a more mild. mobile set up.

I might be biased to cold but I also do like to be objective in the model output and comment on what the models are showing. The outlook could change again but for the time being the medium range has backed away from a GH.

[syed2878]

Looking at the met 30day forecast it doesn't look good for later on in feb. The met must have good reason to change their outlook and of course they have access to mor data than we do.

[Peter H]

Positively spring like here today, and not a wiff of anything remotely wintery for the rest of the week.

Roll on spring. and summer.

Completely fed up witth this winter noiw

[La Bise]

Back from the freezer, 6c seems balmy compared to the -8c it was when I left gva this morning...4 days of proper cold with strong NE winds made for a shivery week-end. Higher up, my saturday ramble in -15c and gale force NE winds was, well, bracing...

[mountain shadow]

Alot of members have lost the plot to be honest, saw all these doom posts in MD and was expecting to see some very poor runs yet GFS 00Z is cold almost throughout and UKMO is cold still upto T+144 hrs, i thought upto T+72/96 hrs was the most we could trust, they quickly change their tune dont they and after the coldest February night since 1986 some still arent happy have they forgot what crap we have had to put up with before last week seems like it.

It hasn't been cold in Ireland this winter, it isn't cold now and if the Greenland High doesn't appear it won't be cold in the future either. You could probably add parts of Wales, North West England and parts of Scotland in their as well.

[leicsnow]

Well we were certainly teased with the prospects of a very cold February.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Tellow

[Partholon]

It's looking bleak now you have to say now for sustained snowy cold.

Hi,

I have read over on TWO that the overly strong Azores High is the reason why the British Isles has not made the most of this European cold spell (in a nutshell blaming it for keeping the very severe cold away from the UK) - and some parts (Scotland and Ireland) have not been in the game at all as far as this cold spell is concerned? Is it the Azores High which is sending the coldest of the air south of the the UK rather than France - if pressure was lower over the Azores considering the same setup, would the UK being experincing cold on a par with 1987? How close did we come to January 1987 type cold considering the synoptics - and does anyone know weather this spell is rivialling 1987 in France and the Low Countries going by thier records - how does it compare over their?

Luke

Yes, that essentially has been the problem all winter, despite indications over the last few weeks and up to Saturday that the Azores high would eventually move north westwards it seemingly isn't going to do so now. The previous two winters were notable for the absence of an Azores high during our cold spells. So if we have low pressure in the Azores, it means high pressure is more likely further north- this is what happened in the previous two winters. Unfortunately this year we've gone back to the normal Atlantic setup of low pressure in Greenland for months on end, with high pressure over the Azores since November.

It really has been a poor winter for Ireland. At least much of Scotland during December saw a few days of snow. The most we've had is a couple of hours of night time snow in the form of scattered showers. Indeed some places here didn't even have that much.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Partholon

[Bristawl Si]

Well we were certainly teased with the prospects of a very cold February.

Teased by whom, though?

A number of genuine 'experts', plus a whole host of others who like to think they're experts!

Actually the first 6 days of February have been pretty cold, but not extreme cold (although a few nightime temps have been v cold).

I think most members who want cold, more than anything want snow - i know i do - at the mo this winter, here in Bristol, is approaching the crappy status of the 90s' and noughties' winters.