Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think it comes down to perception.......recently March and April have been akin to late spring/earl summer......this isn't the norm. One year we will get a cold March/April and then people will realise jut how cold they can be! It happens this way due to thermal lag meaning that September/October are usually closer to summer than winter and March/April are closer to winter than Summer. The exception is the last few years which have boasted abnormal Aprils; one year this will cease.

I always remember my Grandad telling me about how my Nan had to be airlifted to hospital giving birth to my Auntie in April 1972.....the road had been cut off by a blizzard.

Edited February 15, 2012 by CreweCold

[onemanmows]

Funny have everyone has different views of winter - I'd always thought widespread December snow, escpecially early December snow of any volume was relatively rare. Some always seemed to turn up in the hills around the time of the RAC rally but generally not a lot. For me winter has always been a Jan through to March event with the most common times for falling snow being Feb through to mid March. We always had a couple of two or three week blocks when we had to feed the sheep extra rations because of the snow cover. That just didnt seem to happend in the 90's and early 00's.

At the moment from IMBY watch or more correctly OMH (on my hills) there have been more periods of 7day plus snow coverage in the last few years than during the mid 90's to mid 00's. Still not seen a big multi day storm but winters seem to be trending towards more snow and cold.

One winter is it a myth question - heavy snow on the east coast of the States turns up here about a week later. Can't remember this happening that much in the last 20 plus years.

Be interested to see if this spring, in the Peak, follows the trend towards dry with rain coming in again early June and giving a wet summer then dry Autumn again. Maybe next winter we'll finally make it back to high volume snow falls and stable air. Not as fussed about deep cold but more snow would be good.

[jean91]

I think it comes down to perception.......recently March and April have been akin to late spring/earl summer......this isn't the norm. One year we will get a cold March/April and then people will realise jut how cold they can be! It happens this way due to thermal lag meaning that September/October are usually closer to summer than winter and March/April are closer to winter than Summer. The exception is the last few years which have boasted abnormal Aprils; one year this will cease.

I always remember my Grandad telling me about how my Nan had to be airlifted to hospital giving birth to my Auntie in April 1972.....the road had been cut off by a blizzard.

I am also to your side in thinking that it may be better in late February early March for snow or /and cold. I would always remember March 2005 when on the 1st we had a record -9c low temp in my area and 2 weeks later we had 22c daytime temp.

Also prove the changeable month of March.

Although

[jean91]

sorry that is in French but Météo-France do issue first data on cold wave and for them , it is the 5th stongest cold wave since 1947 , a brief summary is that there has been not many records breaking ( but many of them are very low!!!but in many places temps especially lows were near record for an extended period.Here is a chart from Météo-France :

Edited February 15, 2012 by jean91

[AutumnMists]

Didn't happen here.

20th-25th March 2008 saw widespread snow throughout the UK. I really don't understand what your problem is

[damianslaw]

and that was 31 years ago (didn't happen here on that occasion either)

No, I'm thinking more of the daylight hours and likelyhood of snow.

I seem to remember more snow late November than late February over the years. Also, late November often feels more like winter than late February.

Late February and early March can be very spring like indeed, largely due to the much stronger sunlight.

I advise you to take a look at the conditions of early March 93, 95, 96, 01, 04, 05, 06 and 10 all significantly below average with either northerlies or easterlies. For the northern half of the country the chances of snow in March are as equal as they are in the run up to christmas when the atlantic is much more likely to be in full force. Northerlies and easterlies are much more likely in March than November and December. Yes recent Marches have been preety mild and benign but we did see nationwide cold and snow in easter 2008.

I've known plenty of snow in April as when when easterlies and northerlies reach their yearly maxim - but by then it rarely lasts through the day - though there have been some notable exceptions late April 81 being a case in point.

[AutumnMists]

I advise you to take a look at the conditions of early March 93, 95, 96, 01, 04, 05, 06 and 10 all significantly below average with either northerlies or easterlies. For the northern half of the country the chances of snow in March are as equal as they are in the run up to christmas when the atlantic is much more likely to be in full force. Northerlies and easterlies are much more likely in March than November and December. Yes recent Marches have been preety mild and benign but we did see nationwide cold and snow in easter 2008.

I've known plenty of snow in April as when when easterlies and northerlies reach their yearly maxim - but by then it rarely lasts through the day - though there have been some notable exceptions late April 81 being a case in point.

I remember 10th-15th March 2006 being very famous for snow; typically many places experienced a full few days of typical heavy snow of 10-20cm.

Then of course, as you said ... Easter Sunday 2008 was very famous. I remember at the very end of March 2008 with double figure temperatures it looked clear that the snowfall was over for the Winter, but some heavy (albeit mostly wet) snow fell 6-8th April 2008 ... some large accumulations.

[Aaron]

Wasn't late March and early April very snowy and cold in Northern Ireland and Scotland in 2010? Indeed, it was, very much so, it was all over the news. I think Peter H is on a mission to wind us up!

Edited February 15, 2012 by Aaron

[AutumnMists]

Wasn't late March and early April very snowy and cold in Northern Ireland and Scotland in 2010? Indeed, it was, very much so, it was all over the news. I think Peter H is on a mission to wind us up!

Yeah, forgot about that one!

Although 2010 wasn't as widespread I don't think, here in NW England we got a slight covering on March 30th which quickly thawed (except for the hills).

[ZONE 51]

As ever the northerly blast is getting shorter by the day with an active jet flattening the pattern in no time, we then have the usual dross of ridging azores high and alternating very mild/cooler westerlies, very uninspiring charts and the reset to the exceptionally cold pattern people in the north wanted looks like delivering only a day or two of cold at the most and not potent by day either with light air frosts at night the best we can hope for.

What about the start of the convective season! thats late March for me, and March can bring active showers as the sunshine heats up, and if a colder flow then wintry ones would occur.

I can understand what you are saying though, it does have that feeling of the usual expected patterns.. but who knows maybe there would be something different this year..

Edited February 16, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Thundery wintry showers]

The cross-over of March/April 2010 was one of those where the models originally showed a northerly with sunshine and snow showers and it got replaced by, for most, a dull wet windy cyclonic interlude though with snowfalls for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. It triggered some rather unpleasant posts in the MOD attacking those who called it a downgrade, suggesting that a northerly would just bring dull raw wet weather and that a change to dull raw wet weather was an upgrade (the tendency to face scathing attacks if you enjoy sunshine and snow showers after the 1st March is probably my least favourite aspect of the forum).

Generally speaking though the past three springs have been remarkably snow free across most parts of the country. I am certainly hoping for a more variable spring this year but also for a lighter mood in MOD (which in fairness has been better this winter than in many others).

[Isolated Frost]

I think all year round, I look for sunshine the most- I generally look for showers, potentially wintry for much of the year, away from the summer quarter generally, to accompany the sunshine.

I don't change my mind on March 1st but as we progress through the season I gradually shift from a 'sunshine and showers' preference to a more 'warm sunshine' based outlook as when you progress into April and May sunshine can really warm you up, and temperatures can often reach 15-20c, and of course beyond that in June-September.

I've enjoyed this winter.. Not as much as 09/10 or 10/11, but of course they were incredible winters, with large sunshine amounts and incredible snow depth and falls.

Due to the dominance of north-westerly winds in December, we had quite a sunny month- and the lack of southerly and easterly winds in January made that quite a bright month, but towards the end of course a south-easterly airstream made for a cloudy end, and this continued until early February, but it's been sunny for the last few days, being away from the associated mid-atlantic cloud cover.

However, for snow days, I'd rank this as the worst winter I have ever experienced, and for snow depth, it's even worse! However, I fully expect late Feb and early Mar to deliver some snow to take it past 07/08 and possibly 06/07.

SO FAR in Durham;

Sun 7/10

Snow 1/10

Cold 5/10

Though I'd expect snow to increase as we end February and March- and for one very sunny winter to verify.

Mixed feelings, but generally happy.

[nick sussex]

I think what stands out so far from this winter is the complete lack of even a brief Arctic northerly, even some of the many previous mild winters had a couple of northerly shots.

This winter its been nigh on impossible to get any ridging into Greenland to even deliver a northerly toppler. If it hadn't have been for this exceptional recent two week cold spell for Europe then this winter IMO would have gone down as the worst since the 1988/89 horror show.

I remember many rubbish mild winters when living in the UK but I can't think of one in recent times which failed to produce one northerly toppler.

[SnowObsessor90]

I think what stands out so far from this winter is the complete lack of even a brief Arctic northerly, even some of the many previous mild winters had a couple of northerly shots.

This winter its been nigh on impossible to get any ridging into Greenland to even deliver a northerly toppler. If it hadn't have been for this exceptional recent two week cold spell for Europe then this winter IMO would have gone down as the worst since the 1988/89 horror show.

I remember many rubbish mild winters when living in the UK but I can't think of one in recent times which failed to produce one northerly toppler.

Seeing as this is the opinion thread rather than strictly about what the models are showing if you were to stick your neck out would you say that we're in for another long run of very mild winters akin to the 1990's or not?

Obviously you wouldn't be able to a direct answer to that question but what would the history books indicate?

Edited February 16, 2012 by Anonymous21

[AutumnMists]

I think what stands out so far from this winter is the complete lack of even a brief Arctic northerly, even some of the many previous mild winters had a couple of northerly shots.

This winter its been nigh on impossible to get any ridging into Greenland to even deliver a northerly toppler. If it hadn't have been for this exceptional recent two week cold spell for Europe then this winter IMO would have gone down as the worst since the 1988/89 horror show.

I remember many rubbish mild winters when living in the UK but I can't think of one in recent times which failed to produce one northerly toppler.

Wasn't 06/07 free of northenly

[nick sussex]

Seeing as this is the opinion thread rather than strictly about what the models are showing if you were to stick your neck out would you say that we're in for another long run of very mild winters akin to the 1990's or not?

Obviously you wouldn't be able to a direct answer to that question but what would the history books indicate?

I wouldn't say that because of this winter that theres likely to be another run of those mild winters we saw before the recent upturn in cold synoptics, what really negated against a decent winter from the outset was the stratosphere running well below average which blew up that PV.

That meant we were always playing catch up and even though we saw those strat warmings even though they weakened the PV we never really saw it displaced for any length of time, they did however help to bring about that intense cold over Europe, unfortunately just too much energy in the northern arm of the jet prevented the cold from backing sufficiently west to cover the whole of the UK and kept the coldest air just to the south over mainland Europe.

Edited February 16, 2012 by nick sussex

[Thundery wintry showers]

Wasn't 06/07 free of northenly

Not quite:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070122.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070206.gif

[Don]

20th-25th March 2008 saw widespread snow throughout the UK. I really don't understand what your problem is

Didn't see any lying snow in my immediate area in March 2008. However, there was a fair amount over the North Downs, so didn't have to travel far to find it! That said, March 2008 did provide a much better spell of wintry weather than the Winter preceding it ever did. I woke up to a couple of inches of snow on the 6th April 2008 although as one would expect at that time of year it had completely gone by mid afternoon.

As for this Winter, I really think thats it now for cold weather. Of course we may well get some cold shots during Spring and if we do then great, but I don't think it's worth getting hopes up for. IMO It's very unlikely now that southern areas in particular will see any lasting snow cover, areas further north stand a better chance.

[shedhead]

As they say, a picture paints a thousand words. I give you Winter 2011/2012.... http://www.webcam-ski.com/webcams/interfaces/the-lecht/interface.php?pk_interface=279&m=images&r=panoramique

[kold weather]

Not quite:

http://www.wetterzen...00120070122.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120070206.gif

Both snow events here, the first came from a system that dived WAY east of the forecast (NAE/UKMO kept taking the main snow through Wales/W.Midlands...CS England and the SE/EA ended up with the most...sound familar??) and the second was a more country wide event, I remember W.Midlands did do very well from it with several attempts needed to finally break through the cold pool that developed.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The winter quarter of 1988/89, following a northerly outbreak around the 20th November, was remarkably free of northerly incursions, as was 1989/90. 1996/97, following the frequent northerlies of 16th-28th November, had just three sluggish 24-hour northerlies between the 28th November and 2nd April, with all of the significant snow events coming from easterlies.

The main issue during 2006/07 was the unusually high sea surface temperatures in the North Sea which resulted in some places that are normally prone to snowfalls in a showery northerly (e.g. Aberdeen and Norwich) struggling to see any meaningful accumulations.

[picog]

As they say, a picture paints a thousand words. I give you Winter 2011/2012.... http://www.webcam-sk...s&r=panoramique

That is tragic!

[chionomaniac]

As they say, a picture paints a thousand words. I give you Winter 2011/2012.... http://www.webcam-sk...s&r=panoramique

Let's look again on Sunday.

[Aaron]

As they say, a picture paints a thousand words. I give you Winter 2011/2012.... http://www.webcam-sk...s&r=panoramique

The Alps have had a really good season though, including the recent cold snap

[shedhead]

Let's look again on Sunday.

Of course we'll see another cover by Sunday C, but it'll be gone again by midweek and that makes things very tough for an industry that needs a reliable, sustainable cover though Jan/Feb and ideally into March. Been a poor Winter season so far for the Scottish resorts, perhaps not by mid 2000's standards, but certainly by the last few.