November Cet

[damianslaw]

Nontheless, by a long way, this year is going to be record breaking in terms of being the warmest year on record to contain a summer in the cool category (sub 15*C) which certainly puts to the test that a very warm year overall does not guarantee a warm summer. 2011 has been a year that has contained:

-warmest spring on record

-warmest April on record

-an extremely warm February to May period, after an average January

-the second warmest autumn on record (guaranteed)

-with a cool summer in between

-which all has come following the most pear shaped winter on record.

It is just an example of the fact that Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out to some extent, that summer 2011 was the example of a cooler three month period in between two extended very warm periods. No-one can deny that for the sake of interest in the variety of weather the UK can experience, a cool summer overall was long overdue - until 2011 there hadn't been a cool summer with a CET less than 15*C since 1993. Whereas further back in the 1980s, 1970s, 1960s and 1950s there were quite a number of cooler summers similar to 2011 or even cooler - there were four in a row from 1985-1988, and five summers in a row where the overall CET was 15*C or less from 1977-1981. Many summers in the 1960s were also cool too.

It is true that there have been very few examples of a cool summer being followed by a very warm autumn, but given the tendency the UK's weather patterns have to repeat themselves, a very warm autumn was probably more likely given how warm the February to May period was, and especially as April was the warmest on record, despite the summer being cool overall. If the earlier part of 2011 had been closer to average or much cooler, preceding this year's summer, then my view is that it would be less likely that the autumn would have turned out so warm.

Going by your analogy the warm feb was also quite likely after the very cold dec, and that a cold winter or at least average one is more likely after the very mild autumn. I too am a firm believer of how mother nature balances herself out, time and time again we have seen warm and cold spells precede each other.. the omens for at least an average winter look very promising I feel thanks to the exceptional warm autumn, we are also due a lengthy wet period having been stuck in a very long dry period with only temporary breaks.

[SP1986]

2006 had an exceptionally warm Autumn though? and exceptional summer month, and a very mild winter? So I dont believe there is a quota you have to use up before Nature balances things out, necessarily?

[summer blizzard]

2006 had an exceptionally warm Autumn though? and exceptional summer month, and a very mild winter? So I dont believe there is a quota you have to use up before Nature balances things out, necessarily?

If i remember correctly, the most striking thing about Autumn and winter 2006/2007 was that it was essentially tropical, with temperature rainfall and sunshine all above average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Going by your analogy the warm feb was also quite likely after the very cold dec, and that a cold winter or at least average one is more likely after the very mild autumn. I too am a firm believer of how mother nature balances herself out, time and time again we have seen warm and cold spells precede each other.. the omens for at least an average winter look very promising I feel thanks to the exceptional warm autumn, we are also due a lengthy wet period having been stuck in a very long dry period with only temporary breaks.

The last time we had a severe December that went on to produce a winter that saw cold maintained for most of the winter was in 1878-1879. The winter of 1890-1891 wasn't too far off, although Feb was around average but much colder than average weather dominated the spring.

If you look back last winter was the first time when a severe December saw the cold dissappear abruptly never to return for the rest of the winter. Most severe Decembers have seen the rest of the winter remain more varied with further cold spells even if the severity of December is not maintained through the winter.

[Scorcher]

I agree with SP here, even though we have had some cold months over the last few years they certainly haven't balanced out the number of warm months. In fact how many really exceptionally cold months have we had? December 2010 is undoubtedly in that category and probably January 2010. In the last 10 years we've had the warmest and the second warmest October on record as well as others that have ended up in the top ten, we've had the warmest month on record, we've had the two warmest Aprils on record (in the last 5 years) which are miles ahead of the previous warmest, we've had the warmest September on record and several that have been well above average. The only period in which warmth has really been lacking is the summer period (since 2006) and it's only really this summer just gone that we had noticeably cool months in the summer.

[Weather-history]

The thing is what balances what out and what timespan you use? How do we know that recent warm spells are not balancing out the cold months of the little Ice Age? How do we know that the little Ice Age was not a balance to the Medieval Warm Period? The thing is we don't know and the answer is there is no real balance it only appears to be so.

[summer blizzard]

Very hard to say.

As we are technically still in an ice age it should be pointed out that the Medieval Warm Period is in theory the peak of warmth, although we are still thousands of years away from reentering an ice age.

[Optimus Prime]

Whilst I can guarantee this month will be the warmest here in my records (since 2003) it's just a question of how much it's going to beat 2009.

2009 didn't manage an air frost all month but the temperature dropped to +0.3c on the 10th which easily constitutes a ground frost. The lowest temperature so far has been 6.2c on the 2nd. The average minimum is around 4.3c for the month as a whole.

Local station recorded a minimum of 0.6c by the 2nd in November 1994. This November has to be one of the most remarkable months for its total lack of anything even chilly.

[Isolated Frost]

It got down to -2.3c at Durham on the 6th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

10.2C to the 19th (10.25, wouldn't that usually be rounded up to 10.3?)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.6C. Minimum today is 5.4C and maxima look like being around 12C, so we should stay on 10.2C tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.2C to the 21st (9.7)

10.2C to the 22nd (11.5)

10.1C to the 23rd (6.6)

10.1C to the 24th (9.6)

9.9C to the 25th (7.0)

9.9C to the 26th (9.3)

9.8C to the 27th (6.0)

I'd say between 9.2C and 9.5C before corrections now.

[Isolated Frost]

I feel that the gfs is underestimating the strength of the Pm air and isn't factoring in evaporative cooling as much as it should. 8.8c-9.3c after adjustments in my opinion.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Do you mean evaporative cooling during showers IF?

If so, that would would only have a temporary affect on the temperature I would have thought, with no real influence on the daily max or min?

[Isolated Frost]

Yep BFTV, I think under persistent showers during the 12pm-2pm area, maxima will be lower than expected. Just my opinion though. We might also get lower minima if skies clear for lengthy periods and winds slacken. 9c exactly is my call.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Fair enough. Is that 9.0C before or after corrections?

I'll go with 9.4C before corrections, 9.3C after!

[Isolated Frost]

9.3c before, 9c after. I think a large amount of misty/foggy mornings will warrant a larger adjustment.

[SP1986]

I would start to agree, around 9.3C, a deceptively cool CET really (given how mild it has been, and not one that really owes to the persistence of the mild during the month..

[TonyH]

If I new how they calculate adjustments I would give an estimate. As with the above very close to 9c seems about right.

[Isolated Frost]

10.2C to the 19th (10.25, wouldn't that usually be rounded up to 10.3?)

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.6C. Minimum today is 5.4C and maxima look like being around 12C, so we should stay on 10.2C tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.2C to the 21st (9.7)

10.2C to the 22nd (11.5)

10.1C to the 23rd (6.6)

10.1C to the 24th (9.6)

9.9C to the 25th (7.0)

9.9C to the 26th (9.3)

9.8C to the 27th (6.0)

I'd say between 9.2C and 9.5C before corrections now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

10.1c to the 20th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

10.1c to the 20th.

A rare occurrence of the maxima being below what the GFS predicted. Was there a lot of fog around yesterday?

[Bluebreezer54]

A rare occurrence of the maxima being below what the GFS predicted. Was there a lot of fog around yesterday?

There certainly was in this neck of the woods ( nw London ), and it persisted all day.

[damianslaw]

Safe to say Nov 2011 won't end up the warmest ever, finishing mark somewhere around the 9 degree mark I imagine thanks to some cooler nights and a cooler end to the month with maxima near average.

[Scorcher]

Not many. Obviously Jan + Dec 2010, but then (working backwards) May 1996, Dec 1995, Oct 1993 + 1992, Feb + Jun 1991. Then we're back to the 1980s.

1986 sticks out like a sore thumb, with Feb, Apr, Aug and September all cold. The period 1977-87 favoured colder months, with only Jul + Jan 1983, and March 1981 being standout warm ones.

When you put it like this it really says it all- I was born in 87 so before January 2010 I couldn't remember a single exceptionally cold month- I can remember 1996 but paid no attention to the weather back then. Before 2010 you could count the exceptionally cold months in the previous 20 years on one hand!

[SP1986]

Hadley on 10.1C today, in fact I'm surprised it's held above 10C for as long as it has, again though expectation are it'll finish way below this, masking (perhaps unjustly), a very mild month!

[reef]

I think even if the month finished on 9C then it'll still be seen as a very mild month. A 9C finish would see it make the 7th warmest in the CET series and 9.2C would mean it made the top 5!

The 1981-2000 average is a mere 7.1C after all.

It makes the 2nd warmest year on record a real possibility. When you consider that we've already had the warmest April, warmest spring, 8th warmest October and 2nd warmest Autumn in the same year its extremely notable!

[reef]

Hadley is still on 10.1C to the 22nd.

Its looking much cooler in coming week. GFS would have us on 9.4C provisionally at the end of the month. A finish of 9.0-9.4C looks pretty likely after adjustments - well down on the record, but still around 2C above the 1981-2010 average.