The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[La Bise]

You are my hero Boar!

[Roger J Smith]

Liking the recent ECM output, feel that the current pattern may not even allow the 3-5 day mild spell shown, as there may be more energy rounding the top of the ridge and crashing southeast.

Not liking the continuous drumbeat of strawman style posts that take the form "X is wrong therefore anyone who mentions concepts that X mentions is wrong." Perhaps X (and Y) just haven't done their research very carefully -- much like the UK press who turn to them rather than more credible sources. Will cross-post this on the other strawman infested thread.

Actually feeling very positive about my weather solutions. (ha ha)

[summer blizzard]

QBO December data is in and we now have a moderately negative QBO.

AO December data is in and we had the second strongest positive AO on record.

[mountain shadow]

Actually feeling very positive about my weather solutions. (ha ha)

I think many including myself are confused why the mid month change is not manifesting itself consistently in the model output. Of course mid month could stretch as far as the 22nd January so still plenty of time for change. When you also build in the Met Office monthlies which give zero indication of a mid month change, even for the rest of the month then the confusion is widended.

Either the Met Office will be wrong or the RJS/GP forecast will.

Place your bets.

[damianslaw]

I think many including myself are confused why the mid month change is not manifesting itself consistently in the model output. Of course mid month could stretch as far as the 22nd January so still plenty of time for change. When you also build in the Met Office monthlies which give zero indication of a mid month change, even for the rest of the month then the confusion is widended.

Either the Met Office will be wrong or the RJS/GP forecast will.

Place your bets.

If you read the meto forecast it does suggest a change but not until later in January - the next update could easily move this forward a few days..

[Snowangel-MK]

Exacta weather update from James Maden....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAwKGoFBNlA&feature=uploademail

[johnholmes]

Exacta weather update from James Maden....

quite funny really

he spends more time castigating faults in other services than explaining whay his forecasts did not go according to plan.

And he finally discovers that the press print what they want to print not necessarily what you say to them.

[Methuselah]

IMO, the 'mid-month pattern change' hasn't happened, simply because it hasn't. And, apart from regular anecdotal toutings from a plethora of 'experts', why has there been such a level of expectation? Even the most sophisticated weather-forecasting techniques can only reliably predict for about seven days...

[Snowangel-MK]

Even the most sophisticated weather-forecasting techniques can only reliably predict for about seven days...

if that........

[johnholmes]

if that........

love that-another Giles like cartoon

[mcweather]

Exacta weather update from James Maden....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAwKGoFBNlA&feature=uploademail

Is it only me that suspects that the company known as Exacta weather is essentially one student and his PC in dark bedsit somewhere. I am assuming the guy is pretty young because he was naive enough to believe that the press wouldn't turn his quotes into the headlines they wanted to write.

The piece that really makes me laugh in his latest update is about how he says he didn't actually speak to any of the papers. He doesn't seem to understand that if you publish something on the Net. It is essentially the same as saying it to someone yourself. That's why it is called publishing Mr Madden.

[La Bise]

Let's be fair to the guy, he is fighting for the Truth. As it happens, it's the same Truth as that of the Daily Mail and Daily Express when it comes to climate so he was bound to be popular with them...

[UV-RAY]

Let's be fair to the guy, he is fighting for the Truth. As it happens, it's the same Truth as that of the Daily Mail and Daily Express when it comes to climate so he was bound to be popular with them...

The truth is what exactly? Have you discovered some enlightening new evidence?

[La Bise]

I don't know Seven of Nine, I'm not the one running a blog full of accusations towards a respected organisation work on an extremely complex subject that far exceeds my modest understanding of the climate (and that of most people on here if truth to be told...)

[UV-RAY]

Neither I'm I, merely stating my own opinion. I've no beef with the MetO, their forecasting is second to none. Of course I do find their climate policy a little one dimensional. I think we have wandered off topic somewhat.

[La Bise]

Just a bit...

[IanM]

Quite bizarre, he complains that the press quote him out of context, then uses press quotes of other organisations to justify his forecast?

I remember the interview Paul did at that time, he was asked his opinion on the Exacta forecast for heavy snow in October and November, the answer was along the lines of 'not widespread, though the mountains in Scotland usually see snowfall in October. Snow in November is more common, and should temperatures be below average then widespread snow is possible.' Not even a forecast, just a comment on Mr Maddens forecasts.

Complaining about being misquoted is a little more relevant if you do it nearer the date articles are published, I'm sure if the winter had panned out as per the paper headlines it would be a lovely update on his blog and some framed front pages on his bedroom wall....

[shedhead]

I'm pretty sure he will have been paid by the tyre company, whether they now regret the decision to get in bed with him only they know, but to my mind the whole thing was just one big commercial exercise.

[IanM]

I'm not so sure he is attached to the tyres Shedhead. His track record is 3 predictions of a grey/wet summer and 3 predictions of a shockingly cold winter, fair play his first five attempts were broadly on target headline wise. So quite why he is so defensive about the final big freeze not panning out is more a sign of emotional attachment to his own sensitivities than a detached 'it went wrong, I will work out why and learn from it' more considered and mature approach.

Again, we see that the forecasters who self congratulate the most seem to be the most offended if the weather doesn't play ball and people notice, is a pattern emerging?

Edited January 6, 2012 by IanM
typo

[VillagePlank]

is more a sign of emotional attachment to his own sensitivities

Wonder if he likes Texas Hold 'em?

[IanM]

Wonder if he likes Texas Hold 'em?

You have to hope he doesn't, but if he does, I'm in....

[Coast]

is a pattern emerging?

Oh yes, and it's not even in FI......

[Mapantz]

4m:20s - 'Let's take last Winter for example, when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild Winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread snowfall as forecast by myself'

I don't remember 'the supercomputer' foreseeing that. But what i do have a quarrel with, is that he thinks December IS Winter. Poor old January, February and March didn't get a look in.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Mapantz

[shedhead]

I'm not so sure he is attached to the tyres Shedhead. His track record is 3 predictions of a grey/wet summer and 3 predictions of a shockingly cold winter, fair play his first five attempts were broadly on target headline wise. So quite why he is so defensive about the final big freeze not panning out is more a sign of emotional attachment to his own sensitivities than a detached 'it went wrong, I will work out why and learn from it' more considered and mature approach.

Again, we see that the forecasters who self congratulate the most seem to be the most offended if the weather doesn't play ball and people notice, is a pattern emerging?

As I understood it they were offering a discount on Winter tyres, based on his forecast, tho I might be wrong. As for the other bit, if you are referring to the great man then yes, there certainly appears to be some parallels.

[La Bise]

It's not even true that the MetOffice were forecasting a mild winter last year, didn't they brief the govt about the serious possiblity of extreme cold and I rarely recall as positive a vibe about them on here as when their 30 dayer was signalling what was in store in the coming weeks.