The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[Froze were the Days]

Mark Vogan is now starting with all due respect to make himself look a bit silly, he is undoubtedly a 'coldie', this I think is the 4th time he's updated his forecast this winter and still waiting for that elusive cold spell. Saying that it is more his collective thoughts on the output rather than an updated forecast, bit still don't hold your breath.

Edited January 22, 2012 by Froze were the Days

[Peter H]

Just thinking,..we've had absolutely no frost since the 24th December. Looking at the weekly forecasts today, there's nothing for the last week in january either.

Must be one of the mildest Januaries in recent years.

[leicsnow]

And here was us thinking in November this was going to be our month this winter! Must tell us something...

[Interitus]

Some interesting comments by the BBC on the 20th October:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...and-media.shtml

It's worth pointing out that this would mean 4 colder than average winters in succession, itself unusual for the UK, and we shouldn't altogether rule out an average, or even a mild winter.

This one has turned out, at this stage anyway, to be largely correct.

I posted about this in October when there were are large number of predictions of a cold winter - the last time we had four winters in succession with a CET below the long term average was 1962-5

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.bitsofscience.org/forecast-europe-la-nina-weather-winter-fros-4791/ made by Dutch meteorologist Rolf Schuttenhelm.

[greybing]

Huh. Now Mr Vogan is saying cold for mid Feb!

I think he should just give up now, accept that his forecast didn't work out and start getting realistic!

I think you should stop to think on about your words ,he is an amateur forecaster and ,no,I don't think he should stop now .Should you stop eating because you have eaten something dis agreable.He was not correct,so what.Don't want to come across bad but is every forecaster right,clearly not.Is not everything a learning process.We learn from our errors . Edited February 1, 2012 by greybing

[johnholmes]

hi all

Below are all the winter forecasts and in red my very brief comments about how correct or wrong they were.

Well its still winter officially for another 15 days but perhaps time to have a look at some of the winter 2011-2012 forecasts issued on Net Weather, see link below

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71325-the-winter-201112-forecast-thread/page__fromsearch__1

I will try and do a summary of the accuracy briefly on each one and be as objective as I can. By all means those who wrote the forecast make comment and anyone else that wishes whether you agree with my summary or not.

Yes I know we still have 15 days to go so any comments in the issued forecasts about mid to late February will need to be taken into account but December and January can be assessed.

Taking them in the order you will find them in the link above.

RJS-Roger Smith

DECEMBER may be a roller coaster of mild and cold spells. The coldest part of the month is likely to come around the 15th to 20th. Before that, the first two weeks may include some strong winds from deep Atlantic lows, heavy rainfalls, brief intervals of hail or snow, but eventually, arctic air should develop and there could be snow on the ground at times just before Christmas. Then the Christmas holiday period is expected to turn milder with fog and rain especially around the 27th when it could once again become rather stormy. By New Years Eve it may be turning a lot colder.

A quick over view and it was wrong

JANUARY may be "the" month for this coming winter, and there may be several occasions with snow although the first week to ten days may start with more of a northwest flow that would restrict snow to western and northern regions. This could be a windy period in general before deeper cold arrives probably from a Scandinavian high. This should direct the winds more easterly and give the higher snowfall potential in central and eastern counties. Severe frost may develop and the CET estimate (1.5) is conservative depending on snow cover feedback, but frost days seem very likely around mid-January. There may be further snowfalls later in the month as the storm track tries to push back north.

A quick over view and it was wrong

FEBRUARY could start out cold and snowy but the model output shows a strong warming early in the month and a peak of very mild conditions in mid to late February. This suggests that southerly flow may predominate and reverse the cold pattern to mild or even very mild. It may be rather dry in this pattern for the south and east, trending to wet in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The start was correct for the southern half of the UK and it may well turn out to be correct for the second half=good forecast

Backtrack

December:

The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period.

The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above.

The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day!

The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular

Taking the month overall it was less wintry for all parts than suggested; the Christmas spell was correct for most area except northern Scotland where snow was absent=fairly poor

January is likely to be a cold month. Where as December will struggle to get any decent frosts, there will not be a shortage of these in January as high pressure takes control of our weather for a time at least, bringing some painfully low night time minima, and temperatures struggling to make average during the day. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, where as rainfall is looking likely to be below average.

Snowfall throughout this period is going to be a premium.

The second third is when things start to get interesting. We start with winds switching to a morth North Westerly element, and as the week goes on, they switch around to North, followed by North East. This is likely to be the snowiest period, with much of the country seeing a good total of snow by the time the spell has finished around the 20th.

The last third is looking increasingly Atlantic dominated, with rainfall above average, and sunshine at a premium. Snow over Northern hills.

A quick over view and it was wrong

February

February will see Winter in full force, with frequent cold spells and snow for many. Frequent Easterly winds will bring some impressive totals to Eastern areas, with the West having to wait a while to see anything wintry other than frosts.

The second period is likely to keep the Easterly theme going but perhaps snow showers for the West as the wind kicks in, sending the showers over the Pennines.

The last half is likely to be Atlantic dominated with frequent gales and above average rainfall.

Overall quite good especially for the east for the first half but its looking wrong for the second period. Current model outputs suggest the last ‘half’ could be correct.

Radiating Dendrite

December will start where November left off, with temperatures slightly above average and a succession of weather fronts crossing the country. By the middle of the month I expect the Atlantic to start to become quieter, in response to the Negative East based QBO and cooler troposphere. High pressure will start to develop, possibly from the west, with it becoming stationed over the UK as we move towards the Christmas period. I see Christmas as being quiet and anti-cyclonic with some cold nights and chilly frosty days. At the end of the month, we will start to see retrogression of the high away from the UK.

A quick over view and it was wrong

I believe that January will contain the core of the winter cold, similar to what we saw in winter 09/10. Currently the CFS shows high pressure located around Iceland during the first half of the month:

As we can see, this would bring cold NE winds to the UK and snow. Although I agree with the signal for High Pressure, as shown by the CFS for this period (carrying on the theme from the end of December) I believe that we could see a significant high pressure cell forming over Scandinavia, having retrogressed from the UK and linking up with developing high pressure over Iceland and SW Greenland. This would see significant cold for the UK from the east, with the low pressure undercutting the high, with a southerly tracking Jet Stream. The CFS shows a breakdown during the latter part of the month:

I would agree with this breakdown, but I think that we will have a period of cold zonality as is shown above, with Northerly and North Westerly winds. January will return the coldest CET of the winter, potentially significantly cold, though this depends on the depth of the cold during the early part of the month and whether any unsettled weather at the end cancels this out to a certain degree.

A quick over view and it was wrong

February 4.4c

February I see as quite a mobile month (unusually so) in response to a slight strengthening of La Nina and the QBO becoming more west based and less negative. I see February as fairly average temperature wise, with blocking struggling to establish itself to the North. A mid Atlantic high may develop during the middle of the month (currently being predicted for March by the CFS as shown below):

This has the possibility of bringing some colder weather from the North, but I do not see it as a permanent feature, possibly slipping to our South West, with lower heights developing to the North.

A quick over view and it was wrong

Isolated Frost

December: CET 4.3C Cool, quite wet and Atlantic dominated.

Cool, generally wet, especially in the north, much of it falling as snow. High pressure in Greenland persists with a stable, repetitive Scandinavian trough. Jet to the north of the UK as lows move across Scotland, but a blocked atlantic, with limited slugglish energy, pulling in cool air from the north, but moving in from the north west/west. Heavy snowfall events across western parts, generally cloudy and cool across eastern areas. Turning milder as high pressure moves in from the west, with low pressure flowing across Iceland towards the arctic. Towards Christmas and New Year, cold westerlies move back in as high pressure sinks, and wet, windy weather for the north. Some limited snowfall, and some frosty spells in the south in the last week.

Pressure anomalies -12mb Reykjavik, +2mb London, +4mb Paris, -7mb Oslo, -2mb Berlin.

A quick over view and it was wrong

January: CET 2.4C Highlight of the winter for some - generally dry after a wet start.

Cool, becoming very cold, and very dry in parts. High pressure grows again in Greenland, and the jet moves south slowly towards Britain and France - this makes for a wet start over England and Wales. Mixed with atlantic airmasses of tropical and polar mixing. Becoming very cold mid-month as the arctic floodgates are opened. Very snowy at times for northern parts, bitter cold persistently - Polar lows move in to create immense snow amounts in some western parts. Very cold and dry in southern areas again. High pressure moves in from Greenland, ridging likely, giving a milder end to the month, but still generally below average - cold, dry and frosty in northern parts, more average and cloudy in southern parts.

Pressure anomalies +5mb Reykjavik, -3mb London, -7mb Paris, -4mb Oslo, 0mb Berlin

A quick over view and it was wrong

February: CET 5.0C Extremes of attempted easterly cold to warm, sunny spells.

The month begins with high pressure in charge, and a cool flow - generally dry and sunny. Soon, pressure begins to build rapidly in the Arctic, pushing south towards Scandinavia, as the jet tries to move north. Cold air pummels through Northern and Central Europe through the middle of the month, and record cold near Germany and Denmark. Quite milder towards Britain with a southerly flow as pressure towards the north west drops once more. The scandinavian high influences the British weather slowly towards mid-late month as cold -15c uppers reach the North Sea, but they are limited by a growing Atlantic presence. They give some wintry/snowy showers to the east for a while before being ousted by an increasingly strong atlantic. Some very heavy snowfalls in the midlands and south from battleground snowfall. High pressure generally moves in from the south/southeast late in the month as the first signs of warmer spring-like weather appear. A very warm, sunny end to the month with some westerlies and wetter weather for the north, but mostly dry and sunny, especially in the south.

Pressure anomalies -8mb Reykjavik, +8mb London, +7mb Paris, +4mb Oslo, +10mb Berlin

A quick over view and it was wrong although the suggestion of bitter cold in the continent was correct as was the comments about snowfall in parts of southern Britain

Positive Weather Solutions (PWS), a UK-based long-range forecasting agency has issued its long range forecast for Winter 2011-12.

The forecast, which covers the period December to February, indicates that a lengthy period of severe weather similar to that experienced in December 2010 is unlikely to be repeated.

PWS says parts of northern and north-eastern Britain “retain the best chance of experiencing a White Christmasâ€.

December temperatures are forecast to be around average for the time of year, while PWS says the prospect of prolonged wintry activity in January looks unlikely. The forecasting group said there is no strong signal for any widespread period of sustained cold in February.

Winter 2011-12: Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South

December – often cold, chance of snow in places

The start of winter is expected to present some contrasts for much of the British Isles. There are signals for some wet and unsettled weather over many western and a number of areas to the north. There is also strong evidence during the month for some chilly but mainly settled weather, with possibly severe overnight frost, along with persistent fog in low-lying localities. It is furthermore likely that a definite wintry episode will become established, with the potential for snow especially over areas of the North and East. Within this general circulation, some parts of northern and north-eastern Britain retain the best chance of experiencing a White Christmas. Temperatures will overall be on or slightly below average for the North, on or slightly above average for the South. Precipitation is likely to approach the long-term December norm, though some southern areas in particular may reflect notably drier than average values.

A quick over view and it was wrong

January – some cold, dry South developing

The first month of 2012 looks like being characterised by a sometimes mild North, and developing dry, at times colder conditions in the South. As a result many northern regions will often experience breezy, cloudier and wet weather but also some chillier, showery interludes – some of which will be wintry in nature. The prospect of prolonged wintry activity looks however unlikely, although occasional colder cells embedded within the overall flow will provide the North, especially upland districts, with temporary snow cover. Strong winds may also be a feature for these regions. Drier conditions, with some sunshine but overnight occasionally severe frost will be more frequent in the South. Some southern and eastern areas will witness cloud or fog formation, at times persistent, giving an overall cold feel. January’s temperatures will approach the norm or exceed it in some northern and western parts. Southern and eastern areas may be drier than the average.

A quick over view and it was wrong but some comments like strong winds were closer

February – generally milder

There are indications that February over the British Isles may initially offer some of the most unsettled weather of the entire season. Contained within this fairly disturbed pattern there are hints for occasional episodes of colder, polar maritime air moving across northern parts of Britain and Ireland in particular; this will bring sleet and snow, most especially to upland areas. There is however no strong signal for any widespread period of sustained cold. Spells of rain coupled with strong to gale force winds will also feature during February. The month will also feature some drier and pleasantly sunny passages, these most likely as the month progresses and across southern regions and the South-West in particular. Temperatures overall for the month are likely to be on or above the norm, perhaps notably so for parts of the South; rainfall also looks set to reflect on or above average values.

A quick over view and it was wrong=the colder weather came from the continent not polar maritime so the overall assessment was incorrect for the weather type

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) to average lower than normal across the UK and western mainland with above-normal temperatures common across the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region.

There are numerous indications that the cold will not be as extreme as it was during the last two winters,†said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The current state of the Northern Hemispheric oceans is almost identical to that observed in October 2008, which was only a moderately cold winter. Further, we have finally emerged from the unusually long lull in solar activity that likely contributed to the extreme nature of recent winters. Lastly, the multi-year tendency towards North Atlantic atmospheric blocking has already waned a bit in 2011, relative to the previous three years. This indicates that the atmosphere is likely regressing back to the mean a bit from the recent and persistent anomalous state. So, while we do expect another cold winter across UK and Western Europe, we think that the winter will be much closer to 2008-09 than 2010-11. Further, we think that the worst of the cold across Western Europe will be in December and January, and that the back-half of winter could be significantly milder.â€

In December, WSI forecasts:

UK – Colder than normal

A quick over view and it was wrong

In January, WSI forecasts:

UK – Colder than normal

A quick over view and it was wrong

EML NETWORK

Dec : Dry, perhaps colder than the average, windy, perhaps a widespread white chritmas (0.5 Degrees BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR CET)

A quick over view and it was wrong

Jan : Mixed month with no real dominating pattern ( AVERAGE CET)

A quick over view and it was wrong

Feb : Very cold forst half, warming up to end on a stormy note. ( 0.5 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR CET, a cold first half offset by a milder 2nd half)

Correct for areas away from Scotland and N Ireland for the first half and the second half looks like being largely correct judging from the models

AWT FINAL WINTER FORECAST PREVIEW

DECEMBER 2011: Coldest Month of the winter with a significant period of cold and snowy weather developing sometime during the month, perhaps following a chilly period of atlantic fronts dragging cold polar maritime airstreams in behind aswell as the potential for some high pressure situated near or over the UK.

Mean Temp - Coldest (-1C), Warmest (3.5C), Likely (1.5C)

A quick over view and it was wrong

JANUARY 2012: Most likely to be the second coldest month of the winter with a significant chance of a big freeze if December fails to materialize. The month could comprise of the entire main cold spell happening within the month, or for a signifcant cold spell from late December into January/ January into Febuary. The month should also experience some Atlantic activity aswell as the potential for high pressure to rise in the east or even over the UK. The fluctuation and movement of the jet stream should also allow for some colder interludes from the Artirc.

Mean Temp - Coldest (-1.2C), Warmest (3.8C), Likely (2.1C)

A quick over view and it was wrong

FEBUARY 2012: Most unlikely to be the coldest month of the winter, however I do have some thoughts about a potential easterly. Therefore there is certainly some potential for my predicted major cold spell to happen in Febuary. Otherwise, I expect Febuary to overall be slightly milder with an active jet with some colder activity at times with the potential for frost and some snow in the north aswell as some nice settled spring like conidtions towards the end of the month.

It looks about right at the moment(SE half of the country for the easterly) and per the models looking about right for the end of the month

STAFFORDSHIRE

December,

I think this could be a stormy month with plenty of LP systems coming in off the atlnatic meeting the cold air and batteling it out over Northern

and western areas. This could be a very snowy time for NI. However the atlantic will win the battle towards the Christmas period and we will see a significant warm up. Possible flooding in areas that continue to have rain.

By no means am I a profesional forecaster but this is how I see it panning out.

Not over correct but closer than most so far

KOLD WEATHER

December 4.7C, cold through upper blocking rather then true cold conditions, very mild pattern for the first half balanced out by fairly intense anticyclonic cold through to Xmas! Sorta similar to Dec 2006.

A quick over view and it was wrong

January 3.2C, a mixed month but colder overall, very dry with probably only minimal snow chances, maybe quite E/SE dominated.

A quick over view and it was wrong

Feb 4.4C A tough one temperature wise, probably close to average and much wetter then the previous two months. Best chance of snow for quite a few due to the more active pattern!

Not right but not wrong!

ESS

Winter 2011/12:•below average temperatures

•less widespread rainfall=correct

•drier then average=correct

•well above average widespread snowfall=wrong

•higher risk of blizzards in january as atlantic fires up

•more high pressure than normal early winter=wrong I think

•disruptive widespread snow events - even into inland southeast England=partly correct

•more frost and fog than normal due to high pressure and snowfall events=largely wron

•overall i predict a very cold and snowy winter, affecting all areas, many signifIcant and disruptive snowfall events throughout winter, i expect mid november to be the first period of cold and snow for many areas especially the east.=overall wrong

•late winter seeing more snowy battleground situations then last winter

•cold conditions slower to move away and continuing into late january, i expect february to be mild periods but with cold spells, spring warmth to come much later, i dont see a quick warm up, february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster, although i think a quite atlantic to end winter.the final summation into February has some things correct others wrong

GP PREVIEW

Key Points:

· A Winter of two halves

· Start of Winter mildest

· End of Winter coldest

· Rainfall close to average

Most likely time of pattern change is late January-main cold to arrive from east not north-January uncertain but December above normal and February strong signal for below average temperature-below normal rainfall for the winter but wetter than normal for southern England

The main point that is mild becoming cold was good. The timing was also pretty good-rainfall for much of the UK was about right but wrong for southern England. The very cold spell in February FOR SE’ern areas was good, less so for the rest. IF the models are correct then February may still end up closer to normal in the CET area than predicted.

ITSY

December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.

A brief assessment is not wrong and not right

January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.

A quick over view and it was wrong

February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.

Another month not totally wrong and not totally correct

All the above forecasts were issued before the end of October.

BOAR WRINKLESTORM

· Dec:2007, 0.30757,0 4.9C

· 6.0 was the December CET 2011

· Jan:2005, 0.307548, 6.0C

· 5.4 was the CET January value

· Feb:1808 0.645690 2.8C

ELECTTRIC SNOWSTORM posted 3 November 2011

December - after a milder and rainy start high pressure builds and leads us into cold and frosty conditions, i expect this to be a colder high with severe frosts, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast as the high pressure cells move into the right setup to pull down a cold air flow as we move into the mid month period, i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period with a risk that it could turn severe, but at this stage i can say cold with snow showers but how severe we wont know until nearer the time, but the risk is there, many heavy snow showers blown in from the north/northeast, these conditions lasting most of the month with it being cold dry at times.

I did expect some low pressures to move across with mild air and possibly a storm, but now i see the increasing chances that cold and mostly drier conditions will result.

A quick over view and it was wrong

January - i expect the cold to continue with snow staying on the ground from last month in many regions, cold and dry with snow showers for early month, some normal colder air at times as high placements move around bringing air flows from a less cold direction at times before very cold conditions setup again in the north as we move into mid january ,by this time low pressure systems crossing France as the Atlantic wakes up could bring snowfall to southern areas as cold air gets pulled down from the north, a high pressure block stopping a northerly track of the lows, the jet stream could move north during january but i dont think it will do until late month, cold and drier air further north brings snow showers from the north and northeast as we move into the end of the month for all areas. the snowfall events this month i expect to be highly disruptive with widespread deep snowfall, i have more confidence in this than what snowfall december could bring.

A quick over view and it was wrong

February - mild periods with rainfall as the Atlantic brings in weather fronts with the jet stream edging north, but with some cold spells at times some snow events are likely as the fronts come up against the cold air, this could affect a wide area, i do see more risk of cold staying with us then last years mild conditions, this increases the risk of snowfall.

spring warmth to come much later than last year, i dont see a quick warm up.

february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster which could result in possible snowfall at first before atlantic conditions move in.

A brief assessment is its more wrong than right

BFTP

Unable to find any full forecast but found this post in early November

No reason to say it again then I posted my reasons in the 'building blocks' section. Perturbation Cycle, -ve PDO general prominent -ve NAO state and jetstream moving south/readily being meridional, we have seen it elsewhere being way south, we may well experience that here in few weeks and looking at current SSTs on unisys I think we may well see a widespread cold NH. Hope that helps.

Overall I would mark it as wrong most of the time referring to the whole winter, only one part the 1^st two weeks in February really fits

CFS and a post illustrating one of its predictions on 3 November this one

December and a cold northerly start with even a southern tracking low during the first 12 days, giving way to a much milder unsettled spell right out to month end.

Largely wrong

January beginning with an unsettled mild-cold mix about 70:30 mild to cold out to 21^st then 4 days colder before a brief mild day or so ending with cold out to 31^st.

Largely wrong

February cold with northerly winds and two, yes two Channel lows in the first 10 days, then a mix of cold-mild unsettled, this time 70:30 to the cold before a mild end to the last days of winter.

Largely wrong

By far the coldest set of charts I’ve looked at in the 10 weeks doing this. Not sure if the main CFS will show a similar idea. Quite a lot of northerly flows and at least 3 or 4 potential Channel lows.

JAMES MADDEN

I found this dated 14 November but no idea when he first published it

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

A quick over view and it was wrong

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

A quick over view and it was wrong

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK

A quick over view and it was wrong

I scrolled through 21 pages to 22 November before I gave up.

Not spell checked so apologies about that. Please feel free to comment on my assessments whether you are one of those who made a winter prediction or not.

jh

Edited February 14, 2012 by johnholmes

[Bristawl Si]

Like that post, JH.

As was thought a few months ago most of these were just plain hopecasts - and turned out hopelessly wrong with a capital 'W'.

IMO GP is the only one who's been pretty accurate. At the mo i'd give GP a 7 out of 10. By end Feb/early March it could be higher or lower.

Edited February 14, 2012 by Bristle boy

[ZONE 51]

Thankyou JH! amazing you have gone through the forecasts like that, must of taken along time! really pleased to read it! can't wait for the score chart! i think its great so many had a go at forecasting.

Edited February 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Methuselah]

Thanks for all that time and effort, John. You've highlighted my own reasons for giving up LRFs...

[Isolated Frost]

Really good JH

I agree regarding every forecast- especially mine. My problem was overestimating the cold zonality in southern england for Dec. Overestimating the chances of northern blocking in Jan, and underestimating the depth of continental cold in Feb.

Very good forecast from GP. Exceptional.

[Isolated Frost]

I'd also like to say well done to Boar Wrinklestorm, I know Mark uses mathematical equations and uses these to make his prediction and he has done superb. I appreciate his work on his blog as well, v informative.

[TEITS]

Out of all the LRF we can clearly see James Maddens forecast was the most inaccurate. I think we all knew this was likely to be incorrect because statiscally its very rare for the UK to experience well below average temps, heavy snowfalls throughout all the winter months.

Now despite my disagreement with some elements of GPs forecast, I do agree its been the most accurate LRF that I have read.

[Methuselah]

I wonder how accurate (or not?) Piers Corbyn's effort was...

[TEITS]

I wonder how accurate (or not?) Piers Corbyn's effort was...

I can't remember his forecast. I have no doubts within the forecast 200mph winds were predicted, blizzards resulting in 2m snowfalls, temps dropping to -50C. :lol:

[mulzy]

Please don't shoot me down but are long range forecasts worth the paper they're written on?

UKMO have ditched seasonal forecasting and moved to a month ahead forecast.

Edited February 15, 2012 by mulzy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

General nice summary JH, indeed there was no LRF from me. I would say that RJS December you have called incorrectly. I think it was pretty good 'overall' getting the setup/pattern right and the coldest period of 15-20 was perfect/spot on to the days....15-20 were the coldest days and were proper cold days too.

BFTP

Edited February 15, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Paul]

UKMO have ditched seasonal forecasting and moved to a month ahead forecast.

Not strictly true - they still produce lrf's but don't publish them for public consumption, they're purely available on a commercial basis.

[johnholmes]

General nice summary JH, indeed there was no LRF from me. I would say that RJS December you have called incorrectly. I think it was pretty good 'overall' getting the setup/pattern right and the coldest period of 15-20 was perfect/spot on to the days....15-20 were the coldest days and were proper cold days too.

BFTP

thank you for the first line and I wonder if you have any comment regarding the post I quoted from you about the main drivers which I marked down?

As to my summary for the RJS December being wrong, then I post it again for other folk to give a decision on my summary-I'm not attempting to get into arguments but I do like to be as correct as possible. If I'm judged wrong by the majority then I'll amend my mark for December.

This is the full December text from RJS and Roger I'd like your comment please as well?

yes I marked it down, on reflection I should have said, perhaps overall wrong but correct re strong winds and rainfall

DECEMBER may be a roller coaster of mild and cold spells. The coldest part of the month is likely to come around the 15th to 20th. Before that, the first two weeks may include some strong winds from deep Atlantic lows, heavy rainfalls, brief intervals of hail or snow, but eventually, arctic air should develop and there could be snow on the ground at times just before Christmas. Then the Christmas holiday period is expected to turn milder with fog and rain especially around the 27th when it could once again become rather stormy. By New Years Eve it may be turning a lot colder.

To try and give as unbiased a view of what the overall weather in the UK was I quote from the latest RMetSoc Weather journal February 2012 with the monthly write up by Philip Eden

Winds from a westerly quarter blew almost without a break throughout December, overall it was the second most westerly December after 1974 in 139 years of records..

..Monthly mean temperatures ranged from 0.5C below normal in N Ireland to 1.5-2.0C above in southern England and south Wales and as measured by the CET it was the warmest Dcember for 5 years...

Those are extracts from his monthly summary.

Places reporting lying snow were

Dyce (Aberdeen)=2 days, 6 and 8 respectively at Bishpton and Eskdalemuir, and none at any of the other statiosn listed in the Weather summary for December.

Edited February 15, 2012 by johnholmes

[Peter H]

I wonder just how many failed predictions of a

(1) Cold winter

(2) White Christmas 2011

(3) Arctic blasts

(4) 4 week extreme cold spells

There have been this winter, and not just from the loons at Exacta Weather.

Quite a number, if I remember correctly.

Even the UK Met Offioce got in on the act with first a 50/50 chance of it being mostly very cold in February, then a 1 in 3 chance of Southwesterlies for the rest of the month.

As it's turned out, it's been an exceptionally mild winter throughout the UK (I.e. December, January, and February) with only Parts of England and Wales experiencing anything like those predictions and even that was for only 9 days or so at the end of January/first week of February.

It'll be interesting to see the stats for this winter at the end of February. Certainly, it's been exceptionaly mild in all three months here.

Very spring like in the sun here today, which just about sums this one up,

[Peter H]

Much of western and central Europe has also turned very mild, with only the East hanging onto any cold weather, and even there it's not that extreme.

Any repeat of last week in the UK now seems extremely unlikely

Edited February 15, 2012 by Peter H

[johnholmes]

I was not aware Peter that anyone was forecasting such-the link below will allow folk to decide for themselves whether they agree with you suggestion of 'much of western and central Europe' having turned very mild

http://www.infoclimat.fr/cartes-des-stations-meteo-temps-reel.html?area=europe&param=thetaw#nice-spac-img

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

thank you for the first line and I wonder if you have any comment regarding the post I quoted from you about the main drivers which I marked down?

Yes, its not an LRF and I stated I wasn't providing one ......for the reasons we are seeing cropping up now and the difficulty in 'nailing' UK. Last one from me on subject as I'm getting sucked into who's most accurate, what is accurate, how one reads this or that.....its too subjective and becomes too biased....and that includes me.

BFTP

[johnholmes]

.....its too subjective and becomes too biased

which is precisely why I attempted to provide an unbiased view of those who made the attempt-and its also goodnight from me

[mulzy]

Not strictly true - they still produce lrf's but don't publish them for public consumption, they're purely available on a commercial basis.

Is that because LRFs are largely poopy?

Edited February 15, 2012 by IanM