The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[leicsnow]

Looking back at their past 30 day outlooks

http://forum.netweat...t/page__st__200

it seems they picked up on the trend for below ave temps at the end of Nov, on their 5th November 2010 update, then on an easterly blast with snow on the 8th November 2010 update.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Tellow

[UV-RAY]

It's not even true that the MetOffice were forecasting a mild winter last year, didn't they brief the govt about the serious possiblity of extreme cold and I rarely recall as positive a vibe about them on here as when their 30 dayer was signalling what was in store in the coming weeks.

Your quite right they got last winters forecast spot on, and this winter their 30 dayers have been bang on the money.

[Guest]

One warm winters - two cold winters - is this a likely set up for the future?

[syed2878]

fairplay to the met last and this winter they have got it bang on.

[mountain shadow]

fairplay to the met last and this winter they have got it bang on.

Yes, restricting your forecast to one month ahead is more credible, i'm really not convinced humans/computers have the ability yet to forecast more than this.

[Snowangel-MK]

Where is the Snow & Cold?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPJ7YaMY6OY&feature=uploademail

A Winter Weather Update

from James Madden !

Edited January 7, 2012 by MKsnowangel

[Methuselah]

4m:20s - 'Let's take last Winter for example, when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild Winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread snowfall as forecast by myself'

I don't remember 'the supercomputer' foreseeing that. But what i do have a quarrel with, is that he thinks December IS Winter. Poor old January, February and March didn't get a look in.

The MetO was forecasting last winter's cold spell many days' in advance...

[johnholmes]

4m:20s - 'Let's take last Winter for example, when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild Winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread snowfall as forecast by myself'

I don't remember 'the supercomputer' foreseeing that. But what i do have a quarrel with, is that he thinks December IS Winter. Poor old January, February and March didn't get a look in.

you obviously have a fairly blinkered view, and did not read the 16-30 day outlook which consistently predicted cold from about 5 November 2010.

Is there a reason for your bias?

[Methuselah]

IMO, everyone on netweather knows more about the weather than the average bear; and, for that reason alone, we can all make forecasts with a success-rate better than chance alone would provide. I did it in 1979 and 1982, but came a cropper much more often, in subsequent years...

The reason I no-longer make predictions is because I believe there is an epistemological barrier: however much we spout BS, we cannot know the future, due to its inherent complexity?

One day, I hope, I'll be proved wrong!

[Mapantz]

The MetO was forecasting last winter's cold spell many days' in advance...

I think you've misunderstood my post. I was referring to that silly video that Madden made. At 4m:20s he claims the Met Office was forecasting a mild Winter. I said i don't remember this, ie; Their 16 to 30 day outlooks were good and predicting the cold.

He said in the same line 'the coldest December in 100 years' Madden seems to think that Winter was just December. There's no bias in the ways you or John think. I was sticking up for the Met Office. I don't like Madden, period.

I thought my post was pretty clear? But i apologise if you and John thought different.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Mapantz

[johnholmes]

I think you've misunderstood my post. I was referring to that silly video that Madden made. At 4m:20s he claims the Met Office was forecasting a mild Winter. I said i don't remember this, ie; Their 16 to 30 day outlooks were good and predicting the cold.

He said in the same line 'the coldest December in 100 years' Madden seems to think that Winter was just December. There's no bias in the ways you or John think. I was sticking up for the Met Office. I don't like Madden, period.

I thought my post was pretty clear? But i apologise if you and John thought different.

thanks, my fault I misread what you said

[mountain shadow]

Just want to say great attempt by RJS. The easterly was almost there, unfortunately for this country with such a small landmass to aim at it is just to far away.

Hopefully the forecast is just delayed.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just want to say great attempt by RJS. The easterly was almost there, unfortunately for this country with such a small landmass to aim at it is just to far away.

Hopefully the forecast is just delayed.

No attempt MS....all looks pretty much on course and delayed...remember core of cold from around mid month on....we are heading that way.......personally I want a blend of RJS and GP......that would bring 6 weeks of freeze.

BFTP

[Backtrack]

Review of my forecast so far:

November - Bang on.

December - Bang on up until around 25th.

January - Effectively bust

February - TBC, confident. :winky: (potential record breaking cold)

[Guest]

See a little scandi high is being set up for a little while which looks like bringing in easterlies for a while but the cold on the continent, even as far as Moscow has not really got set in to date.

I can't see it bringing us ice days at this stage, probably just a token effort of a little of the white stuff which may be on the wet side - though having said that it is surprising how quickly snow can materialise - just needs all the right boxes ticked.

[Freezing-Point]

Dear Glacier Point,

I would be very grateful if you would loan me your timemachine. Its become obvious you have been using one to go into the future to assess weather conditions and then return back to the present, where you write your findings in a forecast.

I would like to see the next 100M euromillions numbers!

Please PM me with prices

Kind Regards

Freezing Point

[Roger J Smith]

It's probably wise to wait until the end of February before making comparisons. However, to this point in the winter, I am reasonably satisfied with the trends and details, about the only substantial error has been the mild spell from about 10 to 12 January, which is implied in the forecast to be turning colder with some snow in places (this is why the weekend cold high was not quite as intense as the forecast, I think the synoptics are about right, but without snow cover, temperatures were not quite as low -- even so, there were a few instances of ice days, for example Hereford on Saturday had a max of -0.4, and lots of places had daily means well below zero on the weekend.)

For the overall success or failure of my forecast, two basic concepts must be assessed from here to end of February. First, how strong is the cold tendency (if any) during second half of January and as the forecast states, the first few days of February? And second, is there a reversal from that to milder weather again for mid to late February? If these trends verify then I will feel justified in saying this is the best available long-range forecast. If it either stays mild for most of January, or turns cold near the end and stays cold in February, then clearly the Net-weather forecast will be justifiably held to be best. If it turns cold and stays cold, I will concede in advance. If it stays mild throughout, then we'll have to look for a third contender. Ian Brown and Craig Evans come to mind.

[Guest]

Still +0.6C at Watford, so we are struggling to get an air frost - looking further ahead to the end of the month it looks like a Scani High developing bringing us into SE'lys but the thickness levels are none too promising, though if this set up came to fruition it could drag in some colder air off the continent, so there is possibility of something during the first week of Feb but there is many a slip twixt cup and lip.

As we get into second half of Feb increased power from the sun is going to be fighting any cooling we get and the mid arctic regions will start seeing daylight again as the sun progresses north.

[leicsnow]

Even James Madden's latest update (dare I mention it) basically restricts wintry showers to northern parts of the UK!

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Worrying times.

[A Winter's Tale]

Even James Madden's latest update (dare I mention it) basically restricts wintry showers to northern parts of the UK!

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

Worrying times.

No need to worry about a forecaster that you don't need to worry about. In actual fact a lot of members in the north are feeling quite confident about the chances of snow this week - could be a biggy for western scotland.

If you've had a look at the models there does seem to be an evolution to cold pools over Europe and failed attempts of easterlies. This is encouraging as time will only tell with ever changing details and I feel confident that February will eventually see us into pattern where the Atlantic slows down and cold air approching from the east. February should be an exciting month with many more oppurtunities for cold attacks from the east.

[The PIT]

Has anybody gone for a very mild winter?? Pretty clear that we're not going to get winter kicking in at all during January and with the blocking still stuck in FI Feb may go the same way.

[UV-RAY]

Has anybody gone for a very mild winter?? Pretty clear that we're not going to get winter kicking in at all during January and with the blocking still stuck in FI Feb may go the same way.

The CFS charts in October/November were going for a mild winter, with heights to our SW.

[Peter H]

Has anybody gone for a very mild winter.

The CFS charts in October/November were going for a mild winter

Ignoring Exacta weather's nonsense in October/early November, I don't think anybody really went for a mild snowless one, and certainly not at this stage. They were all forcasting cold weather by the end of January and February if I remember correctly

I see the met office are still hedging their bets about a severe cold spell from the east last few days of Jan./early-mid Feb.

If this comes off then the seasonal forcasts will have been largely correct. If it doesn't, then they'll all have been very badly wrong.

[Peter H]

Some interesting comments by the BBC on the 20th October:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/10/the-winter-forecast-and-media.shtml

The hype surrounding this year's winter forecast has been remarkable, unparalleled in my 20 years as a meteorologist.

Driven largely by sections of the tabloid press and several small private weather companies, the idea that this winter could be the worst ever recorded has already become firmly planted in many peoples' minds.

This is despite recent forecasting failures; the predicted heat-wave this summer by Netweather that never materialised; and the cold and snowy October blast, forecast by Exacta weather, that has turned out to be a total non-event - temporary chilly conditions in the last couple of days are perfectly normal for this time of year.

But both stories were lapped up by an ever eager media.

Wrong and complete and utter nonsense.

Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, who analyses solar activity and how it impacts climate patterns, told me earlier in the week that this winters' forecast is not straight forward and 'a difficult call'. He will publish his winter forecast early next month.

Close inspection of the forecasts that are available suggests that on the balance of probabilities a colder than average winter is the most likely scenario. This would mean some disruption due to snow, but not as extreme or long lived as last year.

Wrong again !

It's worth pointing out that this would mean 4 colder than average winters in succession, itself unusual for the UK, and we shouldn't altogether rule out an average, or even a mild winter.

This one has turned out, at this stage anyway, to be largely correct.

[leicsnow]

Huh. Now Mr Vogan is saying cold for mid Feb!

I think he should just give up now, accept that his forecast didn't work out and start getting realistic!