Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[Eugene]

so IF we do indeed get either a displacement, or a SSW , when are we likely to actually feel the effects here in the UK, I read this forum daily, and from what I can gather it would be somewhere between 20-30 days after a SSW that we'd feel any effects ?? given that IF we do get a SSW mid month, then I'm assuming it's effects wouldn't be felt in the UK until mid Feb at best ??

Which is just the wrong side of winter for it to really beneficial in terms of producing significant snowfall, that wouldn't melt under a strong sun given the time of year ??

Yes mid feb at best is my opinion too of when the effects of the predicted major stratospheric warming event will affect the UK's weather, i think the second half of February will give us our coldest outbreak of the winter.

Snowfall can definately stick around in Mid February, i think feb 14th is on average the coldest day of the year in parts or somewhere around that date, yes the top layer of snow is likely to be melted easier exposed to sunshine than lets say late december but it shouldnt melt it all if the cold airmass is sufficient, its after mid March when lying snow in prolonged sunshine disappears fast.

[Bobby]

GFS 06z nicely showing a nice big warming at +240

[chionomaniac]

= bring on february ! Is this warming worse than that which produced the easterlies of feb 2009?

It is completely different so far.

[Uncle_Barty]

Especially the drop in solar activity over the past few months is spectacular. What would be the consequence of this event?

Are you kidding?? Where do you get that from??

The level of solar activity over the past six months is higher than it has been at any time since 2002/3. While not quite as high as during the last solar maximum in 1999-2001, it has still been at a decent level.

[chionomaniac]

Now looking at this 10 hPa temperature chart I record the warming maximum to be +18ºC

Just a whopping 88ºC higher than the normal seen at this time in winter!

Edited January 7, 2012 by chionomaniac

[summer blizzard]

Now looking at this 10 hPa temperature chart I record the warming maximum to be +18ºC

Just a whopping 88ºC higher than the normal seen at this time in winter!

Record warming.

Sub-zero February is on the way!!

I have gone mad.

In all seriousness i do think it is important that the stratosphere stays warm afterward, the stratosphere cooled quite quickly after the big warming in Feb 09.

[ICETAB]

Are you kidding?? Where do you get that from??

The level of solar activity over the past six months is higher than it has been at any time since 2002/3. While not quite as high as during the last solar maximum in 1999-2001, it has still been at a decent level.

You are mistaken. Solar activity did indeed increase but it was far from normal. In the last two months it has reduced significantly and remains low/very low

[UV-RAY]

You are mistaken. Solar activity did indeed increase but it was far from normal. In the last two months it has reduced significantly and remains low/very low

Off topic but yes solar activity remains far lower than the previous cycle. But I don't think this would have much bearing on any Stratospheric warming anyway.

[Methuselah]

What happens, if a SW event occurs in the wrong place?

[Backtrack]

What happens, if a SW event occurs in the wrong place?

Was just wondering the exact same thing?

I'm guessing it would promote blocking in the wrong place? I.E - high pressure over Europe?

Edited January 7, 2012 by Backtrack

[UV-RAY]

What happens, if a SW event occurs in the wrong place?

This place becomes like a morgue.

[stewfox]

Record warming.

Sub-zero February is on the way!!

I have gone mad.

In all seriousness i do think it is important that the stratosphere stays warm afterward, the stratosphere cooled quite quickly after the big warming in Feb 09.

There is no guarantee that a rapidly warming stratosphere means long term enbeded cold for UK.

How is JH research coming along ?

I do hope it comes off but I suggest people stock up on prozac just in case.

[damianslaw]

Yes mid feb at best is my opinion too of when the effects of the predicted major stratospheric warming event will affect the UK's weather, i think the second half of February will give us our coldest outbreak of the winter.

Snowfall can definately stick around in Mid February, i think feb 14th is on average the coldest day of the year in parts or somewhere around that date, yes the top layer of snow is likely to be melted easier exposed to sunshine than lets say late december but it shouldnt melt it all if the cold airmass is sufficient, its after mid March when lying snow in prolonged sunshine disappears fast.

I believe the SSW warming event in January 2009 hit us very quickly within the space of a week or so - so we could very easily see the effects as soon as the very end of Jan/very start of Feb. Its a wait and see situation. However, I think any SSW event this time around would have much longer lasting effect, the strat has been anomanously warm for so long now unlike prior to the SSW event in Jan 09 and we have seen the polar vortex behaving consistently for much longer periods recently than in 2008 - so if the predicted SSW event does occur its effects could last a long time right through the spring possibly and into summer with the polar vortex shoved away from Greenland for a lengthy time - a notably cold start to spring could very easily be on the cards similiar to March 06 and 86.

[chionomaniac]

What happens, if a SW event occurs in the wrong place?

It is only ever going to occur in the stratosphere, Pete!

It is any blocking that could subsequently occur that could happen in the wrong place. There is not a lot that can be done - what will be will be. At least with a SSW we have a chance of blocking which is more that can be said for the first part of winter.

[snowball]

Let's compare yesterday's EC32-run with last week's one.

Yesterday:

Last week:

Yesterday's run really looks better than any I've seen earlier thus far, though it still isn't that fantastic. I'm really looking forward to next friday.

Edited January 7, 2012 by snowball

[snowball]

What happens, if a SW event occurs in the wrong place?

Maybe a strong Russian/Siberian blocking event? We've seen some of those during the 06/07 and 07/08 winters, often after failed SSW's (I can't remember it that well; is this correct?).

Edited January 7, 2012 by snowball

[PubliusEnigma]

Based on the current charts showing the central location of SW, would you estimate the attached to be an estimate of pressure distribution, and associated wind flow ?

Edited January 7, 2012 by PubliusEnigma

[chionomaniac]

Based on the current charts showing the central location of SW, would you estimate the attached to be an estimate of pressure distribution, and associated wind flow ?

Is that a 10hPa chart PE?

I suspect it is.

Here is the pressure chart for that time from that run:

Edited January 7, 2012 by chionomaniac

[johnholmes]

Let's compare yesterday's EC32-run with last week's one.

Yesterday:

Last week:

Yesterday's run really looks better than any I've seen earlier thus far, though it still isn't that fantastic. I'm really looking forward to next friday.

interesting-do you pay for those charts?

[Ruzzi]

It is only ever going to occur in the stratosphere, Pete!

It is any blocking that could subsequently occur that could happen in the wrong place. There is not a lot that can be done - what will be will be. At least with a SSW we have a chance of blocking which is more that can be said for the first part of winter.

Does that mean that regardless of where in the Northern Hemisphere (stratosphere) the warming is, that any part of the Northern Hemisphere (mid latitudes) can experience blocking? And if so is this a random process in terms of where blocking occurs, or is it more likely to set up in certain areas regarding where the NH strat warming occurs?

[MattH]

Let's compare yesterday's EC32-run with last week's one.

Yesterday:

Last week:

Yesterday's run really looks better than any I've seen earlier thus far, though it still isn't that fantastic. I'm really looking forward to next friday.

No offence but I am not sure how you are accessing this restricted ECMWF info and if the ECMWF in Reading see this post and image which is copyrighted then you could be in serious trouble.

I have access to this information officially through work channels but would never publicly display the images because of serious copyright restrictions applied by the ECMWF on thier forecast information. Just because you are not UK based I don't think you should be posting this as it may well affect netweather as well from a copyright perspective.

I discuss what the ECMWF 32 day info is showing, granted, but I finding it annoying that given rules and restrictions I have to abide you freely post these restricted charts despite thier great interest.

I recommend you stop posting them otherwise you may well experience some unnecessary attention and retribution in the very near future!.

Matt

[Cheshire Freeze]

That may be the case Matt but I'm a firm believer that charts associated with forecasting should be freely available to the public. Although I agree, he should take them down as he could find himself in trouble which would be a shame given the context. Afterall, the CFS publish their anomaly charts; in fact the American models seem to have much more data freely attached to them; I wonder why this isn't the case with the ECMWF? Maybe they are just conservative?

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[MattH]

That may be the case Matt but I'm a firm believer that charts associated with forecasting should be freely available to the public. Although I agree, he should take them down as he could find himself in trouble which would be a shame given the context. Afterall, the CFS publish their anomaly charts; in fact the American models seem to have much more data freely attached to them; I wonder why this isn't the case with the ECMWF? Maybe they are just conservative?

Sorry but you've just got the wrong end of the stick here and this is my last post on this, if he wants to keep posting them then I say good luck!...

I am all for freely available info don't get me wrong but unlike the CFS and all the other info which is freely available this kind of info is on another level which companies and organisations world wide pay for because it is at the top level and as a result restrictions come with it. You don't see people posting internal Met Office charts and info do you, even though we would all like to see them!

My point still stands...no further on this from me though as I am not spoiling a top class thread.

Matt

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry but you've just got the wrong end of the stick here and this is my last post on this, if he wants to keep posting them then I say good luck!...

I am all for freely available info don't get me wrong but unlike the CFS and all the other info which is freely available this kind of info is on another level which companies and organisations world wide pay for because it is at the top level and as a result restrictions come with it. You don't see people posting internal Met Office charts and info do you, even though we would all like to see them!

My point still stands...no further on this from me though as I am not spoiling a top class thread.

Matt

Oh no I definitely agree with you Matt, I don't dispute what you're saying but don't the government invest in the METO using tax payers money? I don't think it's necessarily morally justified to draw a profit yet conceal the information that we essentially pay for? Weather forecasting shouldn't be profitable given that in some cases the life of human beings depends on it....

Hence I feel that teh general public have 'earnt' the right to at least to see what the METO are using to create their forecasts.

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[on the coast]

Let's compare yesterday's EC32-run with last week's one.

Yesterday:

Last week:

Yesterday's run really looks better than any I've seen earlier thus far, though it still isn't that fantastic. I'm really looking forward to next friday.

Very interesting charts. The end of the month looking like the start to our winter. Looked at some winter 47 archive chartsand the build up looks very similar to what is about to happen. By the way how do you get hold of these charts?