Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[Cloud 10]

To be fair,those charts shouldn't be in this thread,but it is very interesting to actually see the almost mythical

ecm monthly charts which the met office use for their long range forecast.

Certainly ties in very neatly with their update today.

[johnholmes]

That may be the case Matt but I'm a firm believer that charts associated with forecasting should be freely available to the public. Although I agree, he should take them down as he could find himself in trouble which would be a shame given the context. Afterall, the CFS publish their anomaly charts; in fact the American models seem to have much more data freely attached to them; I wonder why this isn't the case with the ECMWF? Maybe they are just conservative?

I sympathise with your viewpoint CC but Matt is correct which is why I asked the question I did. Copyright laws are very strict in the UK and much of Europe.

Weather forecasting shouldn't be profitable given that in some cases the life of human beings depends on it....

Hence I feel that teh general public have 'earnt' the right to at least to see what the METO are using to create their forecasts.

There are enormous profits made by doing forecasts for the many retailers, building, transport companies etc. That is why, at least when I was working, one arm, the so called public arm, of the Met O was tasked by Parliament to make a profit. That profit going to the government as its return on our behalf for the money pumped into the Met O.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Just taking a look at the post in question, so if any of you are wondering where your post has gone, it could be to do with that. While we try to restore normal service, here's some music....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just taking a look at the post in question, so if any of you are wondering where your post has gone, it could be to do with that. While we try to restore normal service, here's some music....

lol must say I love your humour OON. Don't worry I'll delete this post myself

[johnholmes]

Just taking a look at the post in question, so if any of you are wondering where your post has gone, it could be to do with that. While we try to restore normal service, here's some music....

well put

[weatherjunkie]

In terms of a disintegrated PV, ECMWF isentropic charts show low potential vorticity in what would appear to be the heart of PV in the upper levels. Certainly another good sign. We will also have strong heat flux between both waves 1 and 2 from 60 to 90 N. It appears wave 2 will be the primary contributor of momentum flux in the next week or so as we see great increases in amplitude and perhaps that is why we are seeing some signs of wave 2 on the 10 hPa charts by 240.

All in all you can't complain about the latest forecast outputs.

[summer blizzard]

GFS still forecasting an SSW from day 9 to day 11 which may be the final blow to the PV.

[chionomaniac]

In terms of a disintegrated PV, ECMWF isentropic charts show low potential vorticity in what would appear to be the heart of PV in the upper levels. Certainly another good sign. We will also have strong heat flux between both waves 1 and 2 from 60 to 90 N. It appears wave 2 will be the primary contributor of momentum flux in the next week or so as we see great increases in amplitude and perhaps that is why we are seeing some signs of wave 2 on the 10 hPa charts by 240.

All in all you can't complain about the latest forecast outputs.

The wave 2 activity could be responsible from changing the dynamics of any SSW from a displacement to a vortex split type event.

Which I would say for the UK would be ideal. And probably not too bad for you too wj.

Does that mean that regardless of where in the Northern Hemisphere (stratosphere) the warming is, that any part of the Northern Hemisphere (mid latitudes) can experience blocking? And if so is this a random process in terms of where blocking occurs, or is it more likely to set up in certain areas regarding where the NH strat warming occurs?

It is always a little bit hit and miss where exactly blocking will occur, however, with a long lasting event one would expect to have blocking in a favourable position for even a small proportion of the time.

[greybing]

This place becomes like a morgue.

funny

[snowball]

You are mistaken. Solar activity did indeed increase but it was far from normal. In the last two months it has reduced significantly and remains low/very low

Oh wait! Sorry, I was wrong. Solar activity (sunspot number) is not the same as the planitary AP-index. Solar activity hasn't decreased very much, instead of the AP.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

http://www.ngdc.noaa...omag/kp_ap.html

By the way: I'm sorry for posting copyrighted material here. It won't happen again!

Edited January 7, 2012 by snowball

[kold weather]

EVen if the 2nd warming doesn't totally finish the job, the 3rd warming surely will. Its amazing how 24hrs has TOTALLY shifted the mood in here...as myself and others have said, some patience is required in these things, they aren't usually that fast to develop, this one does look like it could feed down fairly rapidly.

Interestingly the GFS ensembles still stubbornly refuse to get rid of the vortex totally, though what is left is very weak. any run that has an intense vortex is to be treated with extreme caution, it just doesn't seem to be a realistic solution...

[UV-RAY]

I have to say I'm becoming more and more endeared to the notion of how important Stratospheric warming is, as one of the main players in establishing deep cold. I was quite sceptical at just how important such events were, but this winter certainly is showing just how important a warming of the stratosphere is if you want deep cold.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All very interesting GP and fits in very well with your forecast. I suspect that the ball is rolling now and that there will be no stopping it now.

I am very intrigued as to where blocking will set up later. But whatever occurs I think that the jet stream will divert south.

Indeed this could bring cold solution in much quicker and certainly at least blends RJS with GP, remember RJS core of cold from mid Jan onwards, I believe GP core of cold February.

I agree re jet heading south and always thought we must look NE for blocking and not NW....at least to start with.

BFTP

Edited January 7, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

There is one thing concerning me today and having just looked on Americanwx it appears that it concerns the like minded there as well.

In order to have the best propagation of any upper disturbances of the polar vortex studies have shown that the Elissian-Palm flux needs to be directed poleward. So far we are not seeing this in the forecasts. In fact the forecasts are suggesting that this flux is directed strongly away from the pole.

This can be seen in the forecast direction of travel of the wind anomalies in the upper stratosphere.

This is not what we want to see at all. With propagation of any SSW going equator wards the net effect will be to keep any reduced polar vortex in situ and lessen the effects of severe cold events in the mid northern latitudes.

As ever it highlights how difficult it potentially is to achieve the right conditions.

Thoughts from GP on this would be most welcome.

c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its still only a projection at this stage though C yes?

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Its still only a projection at this stage though C yes?

BFTP

Yes, and the greatest warming is till 10 plus days away.

So there is still time to see a switch to a polewards flux.

[cooling climate]

The E-P flux direction has been bothering me to although as HM said on the American thread

with the December minor warmings the flux direction changed as we got nearer to the warming

and I hopeful to see this happen again.

As far as the - zonal winds are concerned I would think that this would help with ridge building

as long as we see the - winds continue to descend at higher latitudes as well.

Right to be cautious though.

[lorenzo]

So far we are not seeing this in the forecasts. In fact the forecasts are suggesting that this flux is directed strongly away from the pole.

c

It certainly looks like the fly in the ointment. The Troposphere/Stratosphere EP flux chart looks slightly better, JMA need to get a better graphics engine on their site..

How best is it to read this chart from FU Berlin ?

[chionomaniac]

How best is it to read this chart from FU Berlin ?

With your eyes shut.

[phil nw.]

With your eyes shut.

Had to chuckle at that C.

The Zonal winds are definitely on the wane at 60-90N looking at the ECM forecasts -but only slowly and not to the point of complete reversal at higher latitudes.Compare the images below.

I wondered why and then viewing the temperature forecasts we can see the warmings at the top are not getting below below the 10hPa levels.

The ECM output is forecasting it to remain quite cold at the lower levels of the Strato as yet, this maybe would partly account for varying modelling output when tooking at the Trophospheric pattern.

A weaker vortex yes but still enough energy to keep it as a force--maybe a displacement can still deliver for us,but in the next 10days,based on this,a complete split looks less likely.

This still may come later in the light of any future warmings.

Edited January 8, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[kold weather]

Seems to me like this really will be a painfully slow shift around, the warmings keep on coming but each one of them seems to be only slightly turning the tide.

Still hopefully we can get the vortex weaker and displaced, but we'll just have to wait and see really how it all plays out.

[Uncle_Barty]

Oh wait! Sorry, I was wrong. Solar activity (sunspot number) is not the same as the planitary AP-index. Solar activity hasn't decreased very much, instead of the AP.

Thanks.. thought I was going a bit crazy for a bit! The AP-index is a measure of geomagnetic disturbance on Earth. Sunspot number and Solar Flux are roughly in sync with the level of solar activity.

Good link to recent and historical activity here:

http://www.solen.info/solar/

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Had to chuckle at that C.

The Zonal winds are definitely on the wane at 60-90N looking at the ECM forecasts -but only slowly and not to the point of complete reversal at higher latitudes.Compare the images below.

I wondered why and then viewing the temperature forecasts we can see the warmings at the top are not getting below below the 10hPa levels.

The ECM output is forecasting it to remain quite cold at the lower levels of the Strato as yet, this maybe would partly account for varying modelling output when tooking at the Trophospheric pattern.

A weaker vortex yes but still enough energy to keep it as a force--maybe a displacement can still deliver for us,but in the next 10days,based on this,a complete split looks less likely.

This still may come later in the light of any future warmings.

OUCH don't like the look of that graph at all!!

The problem im having with all of this is the clock is ticking so far as beneficial SSW's are concerned!!

[phil nw.]

OUCH don't like the look of that graph at all!!

The problem im having with all of this is the clock is ticking so far as beneficial SSW's are concerned!!

Yes no certaintys with warmings HD as Chiono has often said.They are occuring but as you can see they are confined to the higher layers currently.

We are still learning why this happens sometimes and not others-of course you can see why 12zs are not yet modelling a complete demise of the vortex at 500hPa.

The Vortex is weakening but still alive and kicking snow around in Greenland-where we don`t want it.

[cooling climate]

Had to chuckle at that C.

The Zonal winds are definitely on the wane at 60-90N looking at the ECM forecasts -but only slowly and not to the point of complete reversal at higher latitudes.Compare the images below.

I wondered why and then viewing the temperature forecasts we can see the warmings at the top are not getting below below the 10hPa levels.

The ECM output is forecasting it to remain quite cold at the lower levels of the Strato as yet, this maybe would partly account for varying modelling output when tooking at the Trophospheric pattern.

A weaker vortex yes but still enough energy to keep it as a force--maybe a displacement can still deliver for us,but in the next 10days,based on this,a complete split looks less likely.

This still may come later in the light of any future warmings.

Below is the 30 mb temperature map at t0 which is similar to the one you show.

This is the 30 mb temperature map at t 192 which shows temperatures over the pole at

around - 45c approximately 35c warmer.

This should have a big impact down the line.

Sorry this is the map I intended to post.

Edited January 8, 2012 by cooling climate