Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

I still think its too early to call on this just yet. The more distruption we have at the top is bound to eventually lead to distruption at the bottom. More patience required.

Y.S

[MattH]

Just a quick one, I have had a look at the excellent (of late) EC 32 day this morning and in close detail and the final week of January and into the opening week of February heralds a change. The model scenario is towards a pattern which deepens a marked trough of low pressure across Scandinavia as the zonal Atlantic dies away, particularly compared with of late. There is a +ve pressure anom across the W Atlantic and up into E or NE Canada, though not over Greenland.

The end result is a mean flow from the N or NW during the final week of January and into early February which signals a temperature anom of around 0C if not trending slightly below average and precipitation totals drop to near or slightly below average.

All this does is reiterate the signal that a pattern change, of sorts, is likely the further we progress through winter and the EC 32 of late has been excellent, all winter up to present to be honest, so I am certainly hoping that this trend and evolution is being modelled correctly.

M.

[chionomaniac]

Just a quick one, I have had a look at the excellent (of late) EC 32 day this morning and in close detail and the final week of January and into the opening week of February heralds a change. The model scenario is towards a pattern which deepens a marked trough of low pressure across Scandinavia as the zonal Atlantic dies away, particularly compared with of late. There is a +ve pressure anom across the W Atlantic and up into E or NE Canada, though not over Greenland.

The end result is a mean flow from the N or NW during the final week of January and into early February which signals a temperature anom of around 0C if not trending slightly below average and precipitation totals drop to near or slightly below average.

All this does is reiterate the signal that a pattern change, of sorts, is likely the further we progress through winter and the EC 32 of late has been excellent, all winter up to present to be honest, so I am certainly hoping that this trend and evolution is being modelled correctly.

M.

That is promising Matt. Did you glance through the article from Nick Sussex? I think that suggests that the verification rate of the ECM (and probably GFS) ensembles suffer after stratospheric events.

[Pixel]

with a deep breath and some trepidation I am going to ask for some help here on this subject..

I've been reading this thread for some time and although fascinating I find it hard to visualise the relationship between the levels (layers) in the atmosphere, the relationship between them and possible effects of change in temperatures and also wave events. Especially the difference or transition between summer months and winter months activity.

Can anyone point me in the direction of a place on the web where there is a diagram of sorts that explains what is being talked about here so I can 'link' in my head the 2 dimensional graphs and 'top view' down maps often posted here, or If anyone has the time to illustrate it here I would very grateful...

Maybe I'm asking too much? ...this subject seems very complicated to me.

humbly learning (-;

Edited January 6, 2012 by Pixel Precipitation

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Matt for sharing this information with us.

Chionomaniac, GP wrote lately that we see right now the effects of the first warming (around Christmas) and right now we witness the second wave and a major wave is forecasted due to Mountain Torque. So I wonder is it the 'type' (in this case remote), time or is a heavier warming needed. E.g. if this was a boxing game, they hit eachother but there it still no Knockout, can we expect such a knockout after 1 round (when the opponent is still fresh) or is it more reasonable to think in round 3? Or do we fight with not enough power, do we hit not the face but his arm or other parts which hurt not so much?

Edited January 6, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[chionomaniac]

with a deep breath and some trepidation I am going to ask for some help here on this subject..

I've been reading this thread for some time and although fascinating I find it hard to visualise the relationship between the levels (layers) in the atmosphere, the relationship between them and possible effects of change in temperatures and also wave events. Especially the difference or transition between summer months and winter months activity.

Can anyone point me in the direction of a place on the web where there is a diagram of sorts that explains what is being talked about here so I can 'link' in my head the 2 dimensional graphs and 'top view' down maps often posted here, or If anyone has the time to illustrate it here I would very grateful...

Maybe I'm asking too much? ...this subject seems very complicated to me.

humbly learning (-;

The problem is that there is no ABC guide to the stratosphere. I have found that it is all very technical or not there. Perhaps Paul M can help?

[Pixel]

The problem is that there is no ABC guide to the stratosphere. I have found that it is all very technical or not there. Perhaps Paul M can help?

thanks Chio.. I hadn't fully apreciated this was such a vast subject

I've found a few images that help me on the road to learning and of course your original post which I confess to have completely overlooked :blush: Great info in there. Keep up the good work.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/

Would be nice to view an animated graphic of temperature changes over time - if one exists?

If its ok.. I've pasted 2 links below I just bookmarked on my quest - maybe useful for anyone else trying to learn

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; WEATHER SYSTEMS:

http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Sect14/Sect14_1c.html

and a little more discussion here:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056438481

[chionomaniac]

The sudden stratospheric website used to provide animations but is being updated.

I think that you may find some of my posts on the Irish forum!!!

Edited January 6, 2012 by chionomaniac

[lorenzo]

This animation am sure was posted into this thread at some point over the last couple of months.

It gives a good visual pointer on the temp changes.

[pistolpetes11]

The sudden stratospheric website used to provide animations but is being updated.

I think that you may find some of my posts on the Irish forum!!!

More than likely down to myslef , I hope you dont mind ?

Find your posting very insightful and not many of the folks on the forum would have an indepth knowledge or analysis like some of the stuff you guys are posting over here.

[chionomaniac]

More than likely down to myslef , I hope you dont mind ?

Find your posting very insightful and not many of the folks on the forum would have an indepth knowledge or analysis like some of the stuff you guys are posting over here.

Not at all and welcome pistolpetes!

I was just about to post theat the latest GFS update still keeps us on track. Whereas we have no SSW forecast yet , it still is a strong possibility. Of course I feel we don't just want a technical SSW where the vortex recovers quickly, but a total disintergration of the vortex.

[Glacier Point]

One thing I find is that weather forums have a great difficulty in 'getting' the extremely lagged timescales involved with the stratosphere.

Agressive, sharp warmings can have a shorther propgation time but generally 20+ days is considered the most likely duration for an event at the top end of the stratosphere to work its way down.

With that in mind, the warming event over Christmas was centred in the Pacific sector.

Wind forward to GFS ensemble mean H5 anomaly projection for the 18th January:

There may be some tropospheric factors at play which inclined the blocking signal to this region, however this does provide some additional weight to the evidence around tropospheric influence from the stratosphere.

Two further warming episodes are forecast in the next 15 days from around day 8 through day 14. I wouldn't be suprised to see these two merge as they are relatively close together:

The first of these is also being modelled by the ECM. The second of these being a rapid injection of warm air into the core vortex.

I'm still not totally convinced that the 1st warming has come onto the radar yet, particularly if it's a nodal propagator which by nature would appear to come and go as it descended. Factor in the possible height rises early February in those areas where warming is forecast, and the whole polar field becomes infinately (more) problematic to model.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Glacier Point

[shedhead]

Thanks for posting that Youtube clip Lorenzo, very interesting and as you say an excellent visual pointer.

One thing I did notice was prior to the rapid warming across the Arctic in late Jan there was a smaller, weaker warming across NW Europe. Is that either normal, or a prerequisite if we're to have the best chance of seeing the coldest conditions here a little farther down the line?

Edited January 6, 2012 by shedhead

[chionomaniac]

One thing I find is that weather forums have a great difficulty in 'getting' the extremely lagged timescales involved with the stratosphere.

Certainly the charts that I posted the other day that showed that there had been no filtering down of any reduction of mean zonal winds lower than 10 hPa following the first warming. Either we will see some nodal propagation, or what I think is more likely, is that it any effects be lost in the ether as the next warming hits in at a far greater amount and lower down the stratosphere as well.

Would agree about expectations being too quick with the exception that the direct positioning of the vortex could lead to something sooner.

[shedhead]

Can you answer my query Chiono in the absence of Lorenzo?

[sebastiaan1973]

Well if I understand GP rightly (according to those charts where the highest temperatures are, develops in time high pressure) we can expect Canadian highpressure, from west to the east coast. Excluding Greenland. Which is inline with the EC32 update Matt Hugo gave us.

Edited January 6, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[lorenzo]

Thanks for posting that Youtube clip Lorenzo, very interesting and as you say an excellent visual pointer.

One thing I did notice was prior to the rapid warming across the Arctic in late Jan there was a smaller, weaker warming across NW Europe. Is that either normal, or a prerequisite if we're to have the best chance of seeing the coldest conditions here a little farther down the line?

As I understand things Shedhead, the pre-cursor to a major warming event is a blocking feature, either Atlantic or Pacific. In terms of the best chances of where the coldest conditions will be there have been good posts discussing this from Chiono, GP and Brickfielder in the last couple of days.

The weaker warming you mention I think can be viewed in this plot. The changes happen slowly then reach a tipping point resulting in the spectacular images you see on the clip above. What I get from this is a good visual of where we are now with the changes affecting the PV going in Waves. GP talks more about this in a post just above.

[snowball]

I have some new EC-32 charts for you. They don't look that fantastic, in my opinion (because I live in the Netherlands :winky: ), but they are definitely better than those we 've seen during the last few weeks. For the northwestern part of the UK, it's actually quite a good run!

Does ECM pick up some signals out of the stratosphere by now?

Edited January 6, 2012 by snowball

[Cloud 10]

Perhaps we need an eye candy thread for the stratosphere!

Looks similar to the ECM,maybe a bit stronger?

[MP-R]

Excellent Youtube video there! That was a very sudden warming though in light of the rest of the winter. Is anything quite like that likely this season?

[snowball]

Perhaps we need an eye candy thread for the stratosphere!

Looks similar to the ECM,maybe a bit stronger?

Would it reach Joe B's 50°C!?

No, really. The current charts are the best we've seen thus far. Of course, during the 08/09 and 09/10 winters really everything looked better. But we can't have a really good winter like those every year (by the way: in Holland, those winters weren't as cold (relative) as in the UK; we haven't had a single officialy cold winter during the last 15 years by now!).

Though, don't give up, with the current developments in mind. Maybe february will give us a nice snowy surprise!

Edited January 6, 2012 by snowball

[Matty M]

Perhaps we need an eye candy thread for the stratosphere!

Looks similar to the ECM,maybe a bit stronger?

So if this does occur we will not see the effects until circa 5 Feb?

[Cloud 10]

So if this does occur we will not see the effects until circa 5 Feb?

Between 3 and 4 weeks seems to be mentioned a lot regarding the lag time it takes

for the warming to have any effect,although this time seems to vary depending on the strength and

type of warming.

[UV-RAY]

At this rate it will be spring before we see any cold.

Thought I would start the negative responses this time. :lol:

[sebastiaan1973]

Is this a SSW?

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30871-stratospheric-warming-event-on-the-way/page__st__280

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2012010612&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384