Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[shedhead]

Nutty professor, genius in our time or something in between?

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=391&c=5

Is this a BFTPPC collaboration??

Edited November 1, 2011 by shedhead

[Weather-history]

This includes warning of an EXTREME COLD PERIOD from

~27 Nov to ~28 Dec in Britain & West Europe.

He's a year too late.....

Does he never produce forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?

[shedhead]

This includes warning of an EXTREME COLD PERIOD from

~27 Nov to ~28 Dec in Britain & West Europe.

He's a year too late.....

Does he never produce forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?

Who is going to pay for forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?

[Weather-history]

Who is going to pay for forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?

You continue to pay for forecasts if they prove to be reasonably accurate, whatever they predict not because you're a ramper and he's saying what you want to hear.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Dorsetbred]

Who is going to pay for forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?

Probably the same folks that listen to him now!

[ITSY]

i doubt that will verify - it certainly flies against what netweather man stuart was saying the other day. ANOTHER front loaded winter? If the models fall into line with GFS though i guess there is always the possibility of something later this month

[shedhead]

You continue to pay for forecasts if they prove to be reasonably accurate, whatever they predict not because you're a ramper and he's saying what you want to hear.

Well at the end of the day he is not wrong yet, so I suppose even given his history it's reasonable to afford him the benefit of the doubt for now. Perhaps we can keep this thread up, monitor what he says as November unfolds and then review once we have entered the forecast period. One thing that you can say above PC is he's no fence sitter, there is no ambiguity in what he is claiming, tho calling for exceptional cold and snow then saying he's still not sure if it will be colder than last Dec does sound a bit odd.

Edited November 1, 2011 by shedhead

[Backtrack]

Right. So he's predicted cold?

Sorry guys, sledges away, gonna be a scorcher!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Oh dear.

Has he been sitting in his freezer again?

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Sounds almost the same as last year - with the snowfalls almost at the same time (1st Dec and then mid-month), I really Can't see this happening but it wouldn't surprise me if we have another December on the cold/cool side of the CET as per many other years of the last decade or so.

[Partholon]

Perhaps he is over-egging it. Roger J smith does predict a cold end to November, but nothing as severe and sustained as last year. It would be great if Corbyn is right, but he always seems to predict very cold weather.

It's interesting to note that Stuart Rampling and Roger J Smith seem to have similar ideas for later on in the winter, just a difference in timing.

[trisnow]

I can't make head nor tail of that website...

[Aaron]

I will believe him since it tells me what I want to hear :smilz38: :smilz38:

[SP1986]

Maybe he'll be right, but I'm sure it won't be down to his hypothesis.

ps - climate fools day huh? so this forecast is a joke?

[johnholmes]

Nutty professor, genius in our time or something in between?

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=391&c=5

Is this a BFTPPC collaboration??

Anyone who believes this gentleman(Net Wx swear filter would not allow a true comment about him!) needs their heads examining.

I give up with folk quoting him and doing double somersaults to try and vindicate his wide of the mark 'forecasts'

I even read some of the syncophatic comments in that link-grief, his rantings about other centres get worse, mind you he is consistent!

.

[Nick L]

I will never forget one of my lecturers mentioning him last year to which I asked "Isn't he the nutter?". Let's just say the reply wasn't a resounding no

[shedhead]

Anyone who believes this gentleman(Net Wx swear filter would not allow a true comment about him!) needs their heads examining.

I give up with folk quoting him and doing double somersaults to try and vindicate his wide of the mark 'forecasts'

I even read some of the syncophatic comments in that link-grief, his rantings about other centres get worse, mind you he is consistent!.

Those who have been around the block a bit knows how this works. Even if the period in question was mild overall, it would be called 'bang on' as long as there was a very brief cold spell within it. Similarly if the fortnight before or after it had a very brief cold spell it would still be called 'bang on', having only just missed the designated window, whilst even if any very cold weather was restricted to continental Europe it would still be 'bang on' - having only just missed be a few miles!

However, let's not allow history to prejudice this latest call. Let's watch for his updates and judge his success (or far more liklely failier) on Dec 29th, by which time i'm sure he'll be going for a bitterly cold and snowy late January/February.

Edited November 1, 2011 by shedhead

[Cyclone Bill]

According to Daybreaks weather forecast this morning, we could be in for a very white december!

Sounds almost the same as last year - with the snowfalls almost at the same time (1st Dec and then mid-month), I really Can't see this happening but it wouldn't surprise me if we have another December on the cold/cool side of the CET as per many other years of the last decade or so.

[kold weather]

Its like he has seen La Nina is in the Pacific and just assumed the p[attern will therefore default back to last winter due to the fact the Atlantic isn't that much different.

I'd be amazed if its even close to last winter...and I too expect a late November/early December cold spell (IE 5-10 day cold spell with some depth and strength) We'll see!

[chionomaniac]

I was under the impression that Piers had forecast a mild winter a few weeks back? Does anyone else remember that or did I just dream it?

[shedhead]

I was under the impression that Piers had forecast a mild winter a few weeks back? Does anyone else remember that or did I just dream it?

No, but I think you may have inadvertently uncovered his LR forecasting methodology...

Edited November 1, 2011 by shedhead

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I was under the impression that Piers had forecast a mild winter a few weeks back? Does anyone else remember that or did I just dream it?

Are you sharing my dreams - that's wierd, I was under the same impression too!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I will never forget one of my lecturers mentioning him last year to which I asked "Isn't he the nutter?". Let's just say the reply wasn't a resounding no

Classic.

Well at least he has developed a unique reputation!

[johnholmes]

I think he relies on no one keeping copies of the drivel he regularly posts. Most of us have better ways to spend out time. I too thought I saw someone post an item from him several weeks ago making very little of the winter but I may be wrong.

If only he and others would publish their forecast, update it if they wish, but stop harping on about how wrong other forecasts are and studiously avoiding making any comment when their own goes wrong.

[Cyclone Bill]

Here here!

I think he relies on no one keeping copies of the drivel he regularly posts. Most of us have better ways to spend out time. I too thought I saw someone post an item from him several weeks ago making very little of the winter but I may be wrong.

If only he and others would publish their forecast, update it if they wish, but stop harping on about how wrong other forecasts are and studiously avoiding making any comment when their own goes wrong.