Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[Eskimo]

So not that different to the Met Office then, after all they once predicted a bbq summer, and endless mild winters

[Liam J]

So not that different to the Met Office then, after all they once predicted a bbq summer, and endless mild winters

I'm sure if he was forecasting a mild Winter then you wouldn't be trying to defend him

Piers or the Met Office hmmm......

Edited November 1, 2011 by Liam J

[Eskimo]

I'm sure if he was forecasting a mild Winter then you wouldn't be trying to defend him

Piers or the Met Office hmmm......

No but the point is, the Metoffice get a lot of funding yet still manage to produce some horrific predictions. Probably biased towards AGW...

[UV-RAY]

No but the point is, the Metoffice get a lot of funding yet still manage to produce some horrific predictions. Probably biased towards AGW...

Indeed.

[Liam J]

Because they receive funding that means that they should be able to see months into the future with a crystal ball? Long range forecasts always have been very difficult to produce with any confidence and I don't think any amount of funding or knowledge you may have will change this. mother nature has a habit of throwing egg in the face of the most experienced forecasters. So many variables need taken into account and it only takes one small detail to be incorrect to have a huge impact on the whole picture.

A forecast is just that, a prediction of what may happen not what will happen for certain.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Liam J

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Because they receive funding that means that they should be able to see months into the future with a crystal ball? Long range forecasts always have been very difficult to produce with any confidence and I don't think any amount of funding or knowledge you may have will change this. mother nature has a habit of throwing egg in the face of the most experienced forecasters. So many variables need taken into account and it only takes one small detail to be incorrect to have a huge impact on the whole picture.

A forecast is just that, a prediction of what may happen not what will happen for certain.

So why all the selective slating? Met office hve gone backwards because of AGW blindness....Some interesting forecasts out there, lets just see how they all pan out. I'll go with decent cold setting in end of month and continuing during Dec, but no ice age yet.

BFTP

BFTP

[asjmcguire]

Just to add a bit of a controversial twist -

While it may be a bit naughty - a small group of me and some weather friends actually pooled our money together and purchased 6 months worth of 30 day forecasts. Specifically because we want to see if there really is anything to his system.

Because I am the type of person I am - I am maintaining a spreadsheet where we each rate every day between 0.0 and 1.0 based on actual vs forecast. (EDIT: Got to love Dropbox )

October achieved an overall rating of 60%

The forecasts were generally more accurate south of the Midlands than they were North of the Midlands.

However - the various storms in October were pretty accurate forecasts except the latter one which caused flooding somewhere (I think it was Wales but to be honest I was not paying attention) because it originally was forecast for the North of Scotland but was updated a few weeks before to move it further south.

BUT - I am happy enough that he at least issued an updated apologising he was wrong.

Be assured I will be rating throughout the winter.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Andrew Simon Jones

[Methuselah]

Anyone who believes this gentleman(Net Wx swear filter would not allow a true comment about him!) needs their heads examining.

I give up with folk quoting him and doing double somersaults to try and vindicate his wide of the mark 'forecasts'

I even read some of the syncophatic comments in that link-grief, his rantings about other centres get worse, mind you he is consistent!

.

Cannae argue with that, John...

So why all the selective slating? Met office hve gone backwards because of AGW blindness....Some interesting forecasts out there, lets just see how they all pan out. I'll go with decent cold setting in end of month and continuing during Dec, but no ice age yet.

BFTP

BFTP

No they haven't, Fred...But they do do no more to help the cause than all the others. Except that the Met doesn't feel the need to create arbitrary 'windows' with which they can claim better levels of exactitude than are really there...

[TEITS]

Oh dear why is it whenever Piers makes a forecast its always sensational. Seems his forecasts always predict either record breaking blizzards, destrutive hurricanes or widespread tornadoes.

When it comes to LRF I have to be honest i've lost alot of faith in all of them simply because I believe its impossible to be accurate. Having said this I always take more notice of a forecast that has been based on science rather than a sensational, headline grabbing forecast. These forecasts are only constructed this way because they know they recieve more attention!

[IanM]

I know this thread is about a certain winter forecast but has anyone tried one of his "paid for" forecasts and if so, how accurate have they been? Do you think he might sensationalize things just to get publicity? I know that most of what I've seen of his forecasts has been errrr, shall we say a little off the mark? How accurate is his bread and butter forecasts? Anyone know?

I know...

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh dear why is it whenever Piers makes a forecast its always sensational. Seems his forecasts always predict either record breaking blizzards, destrutive hurricanes or widespread tornadoes.

When it comes to LRF I have to be honest i've lost alot of faith in all of them simply because I believe its impossible to be accurate. Having said this I always take more notice of a forecast that has been based on science rather than a sensational, headline grabbing forecast. These forecasts are only constructed this way because they know they recieve more attention!

Perhaps it's because 'sensational' weather is becoming the norm?

[Coast]

Perhaps it's because 'sensational' weather is becoming the norm?

Sensationalising of the weather or sensational weather?

[cyclonic happiness]

Sensationalising of the weather or sensational weather?

Senstational weather being sensationalised in a sense??? that's my two cents anyway.

Tbh, the way things are going with the weather, he'll have to forecast an ice age with liquid nitrogen rain and glacier avancing reports to sound sensationalist.

[shedhead]

The original question was Nutty professor, genius in our time or something in between? I'd still be interested is a small straw poll on this, as long as members are able to remain civil. Had you asked me 6-12 months ago I'd have been firmly in the 'nutty prof' camp, but I've kinda drifted towards 'something in between' recently... however I still can't work out quite what that 'something' is...

[Radiating Dendrite]

Nutty Proessor!

The guy seems mad.

The video is pretty comical to be honest. What makes me laugh is how he is still trying to cover his bottom!

He is always 70% sure lol. A classic for me was his first forecast of doom (sorry I mean cold) when he started saying he expected "the UK, sorry not the UK I mean Great Britain" to be cold.

What is the difference between UK and GB really?

Bunch of fruitcakes if you ask me! *

* Please note Mr. Corbyn, this is my opinion and not that of netweather.

[cyclonic happiness]

Nutty Proessor!

The guy seems mad.

The video is pretty comical to be honest. What makes me laugh is how he is still trying to cover his bottom!

He is always 70% sure lol. A classic for me was his first forecast of doom (sorry I mean cold) when he started saying he expected "the UK, sorry not the UK I mean Great Britain" to be cold.

What is the difference between UK and GB really?

Bunch of fruitcakes if you ask me! *

* Please note Mr. Corbyn, this is my opinion and not that of netweather.

Proabaly a dig at the Scots? we are no longer united.

[IanM]

Can we make sure to choose words carefully please, no overly enthusiastic slating or personal insults. Of course you can throw the word charlatan around a bit, and be glowing in your praise too, but keep it clean,

Thanks

[AderynCoch]

Funny coz if it were anyone else that issued a forecast a month and a half ago and the changed it...say the MET office, no-one would bat an eye lid.

He's brave to issue his forecasts and to have to put up with all of the negativity that he encounters, and while you lot say he may deserve it, nobody else seems to come up with any better forecasts.

Seems to me like there are certain folk who just like to ride on the bullies bandwagon from time to time.

Have the Met Office actually ever done such a thing?

His level of accuracy (or lack of) isn't the problem - it's his attitude that stinks. The last time I read one of his reports he was comparing some of his contemporaries to Colonel Gaddafi. He deserves all the mocking that comes his way.

Edited November 2, 2011 by AderynCoch

[beng]

I knew it was a complete turnaround. Gavin posted this in the old winter thread:

'And to please the cold winter fan's even more Positive Weather Solutions are now going for a mild winter for some with limited snowfall away from the North and East,

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

....

From page 20 post 385 http://forum.netweat...2/page__st__380

Thank you Gavin!

I think we need to clarify this - Piers Corbyn's group is Weather Action - and to my knowledge he has nothing to do with Positive Weather Solutions - although it has to be said that both have a history of issuing rather extreme forecasts(although some of that is Daily Express interpretation).

Can we leave this thread open - it should be pretty obvious, pretty soon whether it has a hope of verification. It's an approximate date range so we can allow him a few days either side, but no more than that.

"This includes warning of an EXTREME COLD PERIOD from

~27 Nov to ~28 Dec in Britain & West Europe. "

My guess is that it's failed by Dec 1st.

Edited November 2, 2011 by beng

[Buzz]

I'd have a lot more respect for PC if:

i) He didn't 'go off on one' at the drop of a hat, ie if he acted in a more mature and professional manner

ii) He ditched the sensationalist hyperbolé

iii) He revealed his 'methods'

iv) He admitted when he was wrong

v) He produced an accurate, regularly updated monthly analysis of what he predicted and what actually happened

Until all the above points are met, I will treat all of his forecasts with extreme prejudice.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Buzz

[asjmcguire]

Don't need to wait until the end of the month,

Piers is 75% certain that between 11th - 14th it will become cold with frosts and the North of the UK seeing hail and snow.

(This is completely against any weather model I have seen so far for this time period)

So let's wait and see if that verifies shall we?

[Coast]

So let's wait and see if that verifies shall we?

"This includes warning of an EXTREME COLD PERIOD from

~27 Nov to ~28 Dec in Britain & West Europe. "

I haven't seen the forecast, can you just clarify if there are any specific figures given that define 'extreme cold'? Does it look like it is in relation to other years at the specific period given, the temperatures we've had in the last few weeks, or is it compared to Winter low temps as a whole in previous years ?

I'm only trying to establish if there is a lower, specific figure where the forecast can be analysed or if it is open to interpretation and judged a success or failure depending on ones own criteria and the general term 'extreme cold' - also against what we've had recently, in past years at the time period given, or just generally Winters gone by?

[cyclonic happiness]

Have the Met Office actually ever done such a thing?

His level of accuracy (or lack of) isn't the problem - it's his attitude that stinks. The last time I read one of his reports he was comparing some of his contemporaries to Colonel Gaddafi. He deserves all the mocking that comes his way.

Yes, they did do a 'u-turn' a big one, was it last winter?? I remember that they had forecasted a warm winter until the last minute and then revised it.

[Met4Cast]

Yes, they did do a 'u-turn' a big one, was it last winter?? I remember that they had forecasted a warm winter until the last minute and then revised it.

The MO stopped issuing seasonal forecasts in 2009 didn't they? It's my understanding that it was media hype, rather than the MO actually saying that winter was going to be mild, since they don't issue seasonal forecasts, I don't see why they would comment on seasonal weather possibilities.

[cyclonic happiness]

I'd have a lot more respect for PC if:

i) He didn't 'go off on one' at the drop of a hat, ie if he acted in a more mature and professional manner

ii) He ditched the sensationalist hyperbolé

iii) He revealed his 'methods'

iv) He admitted when he was wrong

v) He produced an accurate, regularly updated monthly analysis of what he predicted and what actually happened

Until all the above points are met, I will treat all of his forecasts with extreme prejudice.

If he released his methods and they turned out to be a little strange, say pine cones or something, then he'd lose credibility with those who were paying him.

And maybe the 'pine cone' thing works, but it wouldn't be worth the hastle on his part to divulge such an admission? You lot would crucify him, wouldn't you?