Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[November13]

Did anyone cringe at Kate Humble describing a snow patch on the "Will it snow programme" last night as the first snow of winter. It was in actual fact left over from last years snow and the patch has been well documented. You would think they would do some research.

[Andy_]

Did anyone cringe at Kate Humble describing a snow patch on the "Will it snow programme" last night as the first snow of winter. It was in actual fact left over from last years snow and the patch has been well documented. You would think they would do some research.

She also said that the start of 'Winter' was the 1st of November... lol.

[Buzz]

sometimes being on here reminds me of the schoolyard......thats all im going to say.

I'm assuming that you are implying that anyone criticising PC is some kind of a bully?

Why is that then?

If the guy showed some humility and admitted whenever he was wrong (as opposed to his usual stance of "I'm always right") then he would get far more respect.

[UV-RAY]

Same old few putting the boot in I see, even though winter hasn't even started yet. I wish the Met Office still produced their LRF, as I find their's woefully inaccurate despite the millions they have spent on super computers. Here's an idea for some of the knockers, why don't you wait until the winter is over before judging.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All I'll say is either put up or shut up. If one doesn't like a forecast then produce one and see if its better....or are folk worried that they may get ridiculed on this forum?

BFTP

[Rustynailer]

I hope he is right, I love bitter cold Winters, blizzards and pack ice on the English Channel.

We can't have 3 snowy winters in a row though, can we?.............Its going to be warm and wet with drizzle and fog

[NickyB]

What do people think of Mark Vogan in here? He's another one who's predicting lots of white stuff :-)

[stewfox]

All I'll say is either put up or shut up. If one doesn't like a forecast then produce one and see if its better....or are folk worried that they may get ridiculed on this forum?

BFTP

Exactly to ridcule someone elses forecast and add nothing yourself is very poor.

[Weather-history]

Here is the full forecast with text for clarity:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obLq_klpM1w

This is what I said in this thread on the 1st of November

"Does he never produce forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?"

Is Corbyn a general forecaster or an extreme weather event forecaster?

Notice he says extreme this extreme that, exceptional this exceptional that. Never moderately cold, moderately mild, fairly average, light snowfalls etc.

[UV-RAY]

This is what I said in this thread on the 1st of November

"Does he never produce forecasts that predict fairly average seasons?"

Is Corbyn a general forecaster or an extreme weather event forecaster?

Notice he says extreme this extreme that, exceptional this exceptional that. Never moderately cold, moderately mild, fairly average, light snowfalls etc.

This I do agree with as it's constructive criticism. Piers does like to highlight extreme events from around the globe, so I would say he's more of a extreme weather event forecaster.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This I do agree with as it's constructive criticism. Piers does like to highlight extreme events from around the globe, so I would say he's more of a extreme weather event forecaster.

True but in a way leaves himself open to more scrutiny. If he said cold or very cold it is subjective. +5c by day in Dec in my view is very cold as it is below the monthly average temp. By that I would suspect he's expecting potential ice days and night temps at time down to double digits?

Its a big call but am interested in the 'event' dates of 2nd and mid month. Midmonth does look to bring in the coldest part of the month and picked out by RJS last month.

I'm looking forward to this winter and am enjoying reading forecasts made thus far.

BFTP

Edited November 8, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Weather-history]

I got a videotape somewhere of Piers Corbyn making a prediction of Christmas 1994 on ITN news back in November 1994, they were talking about the exceptional mildness of that November. The interviewer was Dermot Murganhan (sic) and Corbyn went for a white Christmas on what sounded like a northerly flow. He was wrong, there was a northerly flow around New Year instead. That was the first time I heard of Piers Corbyn. He has hardly changed! Maybe a bit greyer!

Edited November 8, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Methuselah]

All I'll say is either put up or shut up. If one doesn't like a forecast then produce one and see if its better....or are folk worried that they may get ridiculed on this forum?

BFTP

Except, Fred, there are still some of us who remain very sceptical of seasonal forecasts per se...And I'll remain sceptical until I see anything remotely correct on anything more than an occasional basis.

Why would I take part in what I still consider to be mostly guesswork? It's not Piers's forecasts that get me, it's some of his, it seems to me, rather fanciful claims of sussess...

[Interitus]

Exactly to ridcule someone elses forecast and add nothing yourself is very poor.

To say that one can only pass scrutiny if making a forecast oneself is a ridiculous statement - it's like receiving poor medical treatment and being expected to brandish the scalpel to see if you could do any better; or if criticising a football team, dusting your boots off and demanding that the manager gives you a run out.

I googled Mr Corbyn just to see what qualifications he has and his background in meteorology etc.

I found this Wiki. link

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Piers_Corbyn

Quite an interesting read John.

Piers Richard Corbyn (born 10 March 1947)^[1] is a meteorologist,^{[citation needed]} astrophysicist, consultant, and owner of the business Weather Action

Why was this edited? It was a direct quote from wikipedia, not my words.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Interitus

[shedhead]

True but in a way leaves himself open to more scrutiny. If he said cold or very cold it is subjective. +5c by day in Dec in my view is very cold as it is below the monthly average temp. By that I would suspect he's expecting potential ice days and night temps at time down to double digits?

Its a big call but am interested in the 'event' dates of 2nd and mid month. Midmonth does look to bring in the coldest part of the month and picked out by RJS last month.

I'm looking forward to this winter and am enjoying reading forecasts made thus far.

BFTP

With respect, in the case of Corbyn this is wholly inaccurate. From a meteorological standpoint he appears no more than an .....edited

end of edit.... him up, even when his forecasts have gone hideously breastus verticus.

How many times have we seen Corbyn produce forecasts that grab headlines around the world? He has been in front of government ministers and leading climatatologists, he's been on US chat shows and he was once more popular in Albania than Norman Wisdom... but apart from on here or other weather forums, when/where have you ever seen him forced to explain or justify one of his massively inaccurate forecasts since the media battering he took in 08.

Bottom line here folks is Corbyn is playing a game, who else could command this much attention and be taken so seriously, touting a theory that he refuses to explain? Grudgingly tho I have to admit he is playing an extremely clever game, whereby he can effectively do and say what he wishes without any fear of redress - he is indeed a genius, but not for the reasons many people actually think.

Edited November 8, 2011 by IanM
Treading a fine line here Adrian, especially considering your previous comments about starting threads criticising other forecasters...

[stewfox]

To say that one can only pass scrutiny if making a forecast oneself is a ridiculous statement - it's like receiving poor medical treatment and being expected to brandish the scalpel to see if you could do any better; or if criticising a football team, dusting your boots off and demanding that the manager gives you a run out.

I can say Man City are crap give me a go or poor medical treatment give me a go.but the assumption is I wouldn't be better. I think your agreeing you couldn't do a better for cast, is doesn't as you say stop you rubbishing the current one.

Quick question does anyone know on here what his last 10 forecast were like and how accurate they were without a extensive google of course not

What I'm saying its easy to rubbish do it after the event if you must.

Edited November 8, 2011 by stewfox

[greybing]

She also said that the start of 'Winter' was the 1st of November... lol.

Honestly ,that program made me cringe for so many,many reasons.

[greybing]

I do not believe Piers Corbyn is a charlatan nor do I pass judgement on his theories on weather forecasting because I have no idea what they are specifically .I do not know whether solar particles influence our weather via interaction with our magnetic field and the moon.I do wish I could look in depth at his theories because ,quite frankly,I find what little I know fascinating.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Except, Fred, there are still some of us who remain very sceptical of seasonal forecasts per se...And I'll remain sceptical until I see anything remotely correct on anything more than an occasional basis.

Why would I take part in what I still consider to be mostly guesswork? It's not Piers's forecasts that get me, it's some of his, it seems to me, rather fanciful claims of sussess...

Ah Pete, that is a good and perfectly reasonable response. Let's see what comes of it though, on this occasion end of December, as he has called for exceptional cold period 27 Nov to 27 Dec and pass judgement then. There is a difference to disagreeing with a forecast to utterly dismissing and berating it and the person because one thinks they are 'with it' for doing so.

What I'm saying is how can anyone say a forecast is complete pants or moronic etc etc if it is well within the realms of reasonable possibility...especially when allegedly none of us know what's going to happen? Or are there loads out there that know?

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Can PC be forced to explain his 'theories' under Freedom of Information? After all, that's what everyone expects for the MetO...

Only some science should be open, it seems.

[keithlucky]

Why should peirs corbyn explain his theories,he doesent get paid millions by the tax payer,he get no taxpayers monies, met constantly get it wrong he gets it wrong.The main thing is you can go to weatheractions meeting every month,it would be interesting what is discussed,can somebody in london go?

[SP1986]

Because if I said 'the winters going to exceptionally cold and snowy', on here, people would expect me to give a reason why. Its about science and principle.

[Nick L]

Why should peirs corbyn explain his theories,he doesent get paid millions by the tax payer,he get no taxpayers monies, met constantly get it wrong he gets it wrong.The main thing is you can go to weatheractions meeting every month,it would be interesting what is discussed,can somebody in london go?

Because a good scientist always backs up his claims with evidence. All this man seems to be is the harbinger of doom! He doesn't have to provide evidence, but until he does no right-minded person will take him seriously.

[keithlucky]

He has given a basic explanation on his method of forecasting on his utube sites ,due to solar activity and the gulf stream being pushed south by large HP forming over NEast europe, and basically a repeat of last year december weather,but more severe,but also he says record high tempretures for Australia this summer.

Edited November 9, 2011 by keithlucky

[Isolated Frost]

He has given a basic explanation on his method of forecasting on his utube sites ,due to solar activity and the gulf stream being pushed south by large HP forming over NEast europe, and basically a repeat of last year december weather,but more severe,but also he says record high tempretures for Australia this summer.

so a repeat of last December and record Australia weather- nothing in the middle?

Hahaha he's a joke i'm sorry.