Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[phil nw.]

I think he relies on no one keeping copies of the drivel he regularly posts. Most of us have better ways to spend out time. I too thought I saw someone post an item from him several weeks ago making very little of the winter but I may be wrong.

If only he and others would publish their forecast, update it if they wish, but stop harping on about how wrong other forecasts are and studiously avoiding making any comment when their own goes wrong.

I googled Mr Corbyn just to see what qualifications he has and his background in meteorology etc.

I found this Wiki. link

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Piers_Corbyn

Quite an interesting read John.

Edited November 1, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Isolated Frost]

I googled Mr Corbyn just to see what qualifications he has and his background in meteorology etc.

I found this Wiki. link

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Piers_Corbyn

Quite an interesting read John.

From Labour party member to global warming denier. Any REAL progress?

Edited November 1, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[johnholmes]

I googled Mr Corbyn just to see what qualifications he has and his background in meteorology etc.

I found this Wiki. link

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Piers_Corbyn

Quite an interesting read John.

interesting, yes Phil, but I just cannot take his forecasts really seriously.

Others disagree.

[phil nw.]

interesting, yes Phil, but I just cannot take his forecasts really seriously.

Others disagree.

Yes he should explain his methods and explain clearly how he arrives at a forecast.

He should also be prepared to accept criticism when he is proved wrong--after all he is making a living out of selling forecasts to different companies.

He would be more respected for it i am sure.

[johnholmes]

Yes he should explain his methods and explain clearly how he arrives at a forecast.

He should also be prepared to accept criticism when he is proved wrong--after all he is making a living out of selling forecasts to different companies.

He would be more respected for it i am sure.

that is it in a nutshell Phil

He may well have something in his methods, and meteorology like most sciences, will be very slow to accept his theories, but unless he is prepared to explain his theory and give examples of when its worked and when its not worked and stand in front of his peers and discuss it rationally rather than rant on about other forecasters being no good he will continue to have difficulty in becoming accepted.

[Cakie]

Maybe someone should keep a log of the various "mild winter"/"mini ice age" quotes of these people and then when they convieniently forget what they have said someone could remind them

[Dorsetbred]

Whilst I think Mr Corbyn to have gone over the top (I for one do certainly not believe this winter to follow the previous two) I did hear it rumoured that he assists Bt ,in generating wads of network traffic for which Bt are totally grateful. A Piers in the hand is worth two on the net.

[chionomaniac]

I knew it was a complete turnaround. Gavin posted this in the old winter thread:

'And to please the cold winter fan's even more Positive Weather Solutions are now going for a mild winter for some with limited snowfall away from the North and East,

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season.

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split has now completely lost its shape. Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east possibly late month. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

White Christmas: 36%

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split also lost its shape. Cold with threat of snow to the north and east. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground. South East showing a potentially dry month. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation but even this now fading. South and West seeing limited wintry conditions. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

Emma Pearson

Assistant Weather Forecaster

Friday September 23rd 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php '

I bet you can't access this forecast now! Funny that!

From page 20 post 385

Thank you Gavin!

[Optimus Prime]

Publicity, publicity, publicity. His hell frozen over forecast for the 2010/2011 winter was an exaggeration and only December saved him somewhat (a CET of -0.7c is hardly hell frozen over)

Metaphorically it's an interesting phrase mind. From a scientists point of view it makes more sense than hell being hot.

Na he Lettuceed up.

[cyclonic happiness]

I knew it was a complete turnaround. Gavin posted this in the old winter thread:

'And to please the cold winter fan's even more Positive Weather Solutions are now going for a mild winter for some with limited snowfall away from the North and East,

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season.

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split has now completely lost its shape. Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east possibly late month. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

White Christmas: 36%

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split also lost its shape. Cold with threat of snow to the north and east. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground. South East showing a potentially dry month. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation but even this now fading. South and West seeing limited wintry conditions. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

Emma Pearson

Assistant Weather Forecaster

Friday September 23rd 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php '

I bet you can't access this forecast now! Funny that!

From page 20 post 385 http://forum.netweat...2/page__st__380

Thank you Gavin!

How lomg ago did he issue that forecast then?

[damianslaw]

Whilst I don't tend to believe what he says - he does stick his neck on the line and I do seem to recall he called well the significant cold weather during the last 2 winters - much of his forecasting is based on solar energy and input, so I wouldn't ignore him completely. Also he lambasted the 2009 summer meto forecast, calling a very average summer which was correct.

[chionomaniac]

How lomg ago did he issue that forecast then?

23rd September

[mcweather]

interesting, yes Phil, but I just cannot take his forecasts really seriously.

Others disagree.

Hi John. I must admit I don't like PC's arrogant style or his dismissal of other forecasters however unlike Net weather or your former colleagues at the Met office . Last year Piers did at least predict that one of the winter months would be the coldest for a least 100 years and in that he was closer to the mark than any one else.

[jcw]

I was under the impression that Piers had forecast a mild winter a few weeks back? Does anyone else remember that or did I just dream it?

He did comment about the cold October forecast by James Madden in one of his PDF bulletins which can still be read here;

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No21.pdf

He didn't go into his winter forecast at that time but did forecast a number of storms over the following weeks....

Joe

[cyclonic happiness]

Funny coz if it were anyone else that issued a forecast a month and a half ago and the changed it...say the MET office, no-one would bat an eye lid.

He's brave to issue his forecasts and to have to put up with all of the negativity that he encounters, and while you lot say he may deserve it, nobody else seems to come up with any better forecasts.

Seems to me like there are certain folk who just like to ride on the bullies bandwagon from time to time.

I do think he has one thing right, but it's my personal belief too, that we have entered a 'little ice age' and that colder than normal winters should be expected.

And don't ask me for my reasons as I'm not really interested in justifying myself, it's just my personal belief.

Edited November 1, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[jcw]

I knew it was a complete turnaround. Gavin posted this in the old winter thread:

'And to please the cold winter fan's even more Positive Weather Solutions are now going for a mild winter for some with limited snowfall away from the North and East,

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season.

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split has now completely lost its shape. Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east possibly late month. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

White Christmas: 36%

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split also lost its shape. Cold with threat of snow to the north and east. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground. South East showing a potentially dry month. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation but even this now fading. South and West seeing limited wintry conditions. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

Emma Pearson

Assistant Weather Forecaster

Friday September 23rd 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php '

I bet you can't access this forecast now! Funny that!

From page 20 post 385 http://forum.netweat...2/page__st__380

Thank you Gavin!

I've collated a number of forecasts from PWS, WSI, James Madden, etc. at www.iontas.net just to keep people "honest"...!! ;-)

Joe

[stewfox]

I think he relies on no one keeping copies of the drivel he regularly posts. Most of us have better ways to spend out time. I too thought I saw someone post an item from him several weeks ago making very little of the winter but I may be wrong.

If only he and others would publish their forecast, update it if they wish, but stop harping on about how wrong other forecasts are and studiously avoiding making any comment when their own goes wrong.

Last year he said on 2nd september 2010 to be fair

-------------------

Cold setting in end November with some cold records being broken

Likely to be coldest December in over 100yrs and a CET of -0.6c with heavy snow mid month and a white Christmas for most milder conditions for most after 26th December

January average for most after a early cold start CET close to average

Feburary was going to be very mild with CET 2c abover average

----------------------

Pity there is no record of it

Edited November 1, 2011 by stewfox

[Optimus Prime]

Last year he said on 2nd september 2010 to be fair

-------------------

Cold setting in end November with some cold records being broken

Likely to be coldest December in over 100yrs and a CET of -0.6c with heavy snow mid month and a white Christmas for most milder conditions for most after 26th December

January average for most after a early cold start CET close to average

Feburary was going to be very mild with CET 2c abover average

----------------------

Pity there is no record of it

Was that his published forecast? And was it issued before or after 28th February 2011?

Edited November 1, 2011 by Optimus Prime

[stewfox]

Was that his published forecast? And was it issued before or after 28th February 2011?

After a lot easier

[Isolated Frost]

Lol stewfox. He posted it after and still got the December cet wrong (-0.7c)!!

Joking of course, but I wouldn't put it past him!

[stewfox]

Lol stewfox. He posted it after and still got the December cet wrong (-0.7c)!!

Joking of course, but I wouldn't put it past him!

What would be nice if somone kept 100 winter forecasts from 100 different sites /individuals from cranks to 40yrs met experience.

Look at them over 5/10 yr period and get a panel to rank them for accuracy.

I have never seen 1 winter forcast that has remotely got all 3 months correct and 'a bit colder/warmer then average doesn't count'

Edited November 1, 2011 by stewfox

[ITSY]

how is it possible, on the 1st of November, to say "give or take a few days, around the 1st and 14th of December there will be massive snowfall" ? I WANT to believe him or at least see his view as balanced, but at this distance it just seems ridiculous. All credit to him though if he knows something i dont - if it comes off I will be amazed!

[Liam J]

None of this nutters extreme sensationalist forecasts have ever came off, I can remember one Winter a few years ago in a daily paper he warned of huge damaging storms to hit over Christmas needless to say they did not materialise, nothing more than a fantasy forecaster.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Liam J

[pottyprof]

I know this thread is about a certain winter forecast but has anyone tried one of his "paid for" forecasts and if so, how accurate have they been? Do you think he might sensationalize things just to get publicity? I know that most of what I've seen of his forecasts has been errrr, shall we say a little off the mark? How accurate is his bread and butter forecasts? Anyone know?

[UV-RAY]

None of this nutters extreme sensationalist forecasts have ever came off, I can remember one Winter a few years ago in a daily paper he warned of huge damaging storms to hit over Christmas needless to say they did not materialise, nothing more than a fantasy forecaster.

So not that different to the Met Office then, after all they once predicted a bbq summer, and endless mild winters