Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[johnholmes]

Isn't this what he wants? More people will then access his site, he can show potential advertisers how popular his site is and get rich in the process.

you could be right

[Harps]

Todays update

http://twitpic.com/7ioave

[johnholmes]

grief-but having read the link I best say nowt!

[Richie V]

Jeesuz wept.... Is this bloke

Todays update

http://twitpic.com/7ioave

Jeesuz, Is this guy for real (piers that is)? Am I missing something

Edited November 24, 2011 by Richie V

[mountain shadow]

Suffice to say we must be about to witness the biggest turn around in model output in history!.

[kippure]

I think we are,

[UV-RAY]

To be honest he wasn't the only one who believed this winter would be bad like the last two years. It was all based on a pattern that didn't exist other than the last two years. I predict a non descript winter mainly mild!

Well seen as it's November still it may well be.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Jeesuz wept.... Is this bloke

Jeesuz, Is this guy for real (piers that is)? Am I missing something

Nope.

As far as anyone can tell, given that he won't let anyone else know what his methods are for commercial reasons, he bases his weather forecasts on solar activity.

Given that no-one can tell what the Sun's going to do in the next hour, accurate 45-day forecasts seem unlikely. The collapse of a filament on the solar surface a couple of days ago is - according to that article - apparently responsible for the "Arctic blast" being delayed, even though there didn't actually appear (according to NASA and NOAA) to be any noticeable effects from it as it wasn't Earth-directed - and no-one else - especially no-one of any repute - appeared to be forecasting an Arctic blast.

The majority of forecasters were - from several days out - predicting wet, windy and average - and in some places higher than average - temperatures. The cynical view might be that someone seeing a forecast going badly wrong would pick on any unexpected factor to give as a reason for a forecast not working out...

Edited November 24, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[The watcher]

The only credit I'd give him is as an Einstein lookalike. Man needs a hairbrush or a haircut.

[stewfox]

very true R, where would we be without him?

Cleaning the kitchen ?

The cool down as started as predicted with snow coming into the north. So far 7/10

[johnholmes]

Cleaning the kitchen ?

The cool down as started as predicted with snow coming into the north. So far 7/10

you are another comic mate-exceptional cold was his forecast, his updated forecast, the 30th November for it to happen!

[Optimus Prime]

The only credit I'd give him is as an Einstein lookalike. Man needs a hairbrush or a haircut.

It's a fair point criticising the mans forecasting skills but his appearance? That's low.

[stewfox]

you are another comic mate-exceptional cold was his forecast, his updated forecast, the 30th November for it to happen!

Lets go back to what he said

This includes warning of an EXTREME COLD PERIOD from

~27 Nov to ~28 Dec in Britain & West Europe.

Chance of blizzards and heavy snow in the highlands starts 26th Nov.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mountainsafety/easthighland/easthighland_latest_pressure.html

Highs of -6 in some towns in Western Europe of -6c !

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/01006.html

Not wide spread but he admits being a few days out

It's a fair point criticising the mans forecasting skills but his appearance? That's low.

Have you notice the lack of forecasts by the more knowledgble forecasters this years.

At least he lives and dies by the sword

[Harps]

Eh..Edgeoya is in Svalbard in the Arctic Circle, not exactly Western Europe and you dont have to be a genius to forecast cold there

Snow in the Scottish Highlands is standard at this time of year, its a passing pm low and nothing to do with severe cold from a blocking pattern

I have nothing against Corybn's forecasts, he's as entitled as anyone to make a forecast but its his attitude of arrogance and dismissing and taking cheap digs at other people that annoy me

[stewfox]

I have nothing against Corybn's forecasts, he's as entitled as anyone to make a forecast but its his attitude of arrogance and dismissing and taking cheap digs at other people that annoy me

He has had 200 digs on this thread and his forecast period hasn't even started yet !

I am not suggesting he is correct but lets see

[johnholmes]

All one of my posts commented on Stew was that his prediction of Exceptional cold, his revised date, 30 November was highly unlikely. yes its not yet 30th November but I did put my reputation as a retired professional forecaster on the line by posting such a statement.

If you want to believe him fine but he and his supporters must accept critical comments when it really is obvious that AT LEAST THE START of his latest forecast is pure fantasy.

I've promised myself from now on not to comment in here again so mods/admin if I break that promise please delete any post from me.

enjoy his forecasts all you believers.

[mountain shadow]

Do some really believe him?

I'm a fair person, but unless we see some massive changes in the model output even his revised forecast will be hopelessly wrong although he will try and claim it's right in some shape or fashion.

[Coast]

He has had 200 digs on this thread and his forecast period hasn't even started yet !

http://twitpic.com/7ioave

Cold blast postponed, but still coming says Piers

That's the key phrase in the link for me. You or I or Piers cannot postpone a cold blast, but you can incorrectly forecast it. No one can control the weather to the extent that it will be called off or postponed!!! If you say it is still coming then you may retain some credibility if it comes off within a short time scale, say 2 or 3 days. But to say that you were (or are) right and nature just 'changed' things on the timing a bit from what it was going to do, is just not on.

What is set to come is going to come, it's whether we can detect the signs that tell us it's coming and issue a correct forecast - simples!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well I have stocked up on rock salt and spam on PC advise!

I think we really need to get to the bottom of what he meant when he said exceptional.

I have quickly used an on-line dictionary to help with this one (www.weatheractiondictionary.co.uk), it gave the following meaning:

Average, normal, nothing out of the ordinary.

Looking pretty good for PC so far I would say.

A quick thesuarus check gave this for the term exceptional:

Part of Speech: adjective Definition: irregular Synonyms: aberrant, abnormal, anomalous, atypical, deviant,distinct, extraordinary, inconsistent, infrequent,notable, noteworthy, odd, peculiar, phenomenal,rare, remarkable, scarce, singular, special,strange, uncommon, uncustomary, unheard-of,unimaginable, unique, unordinary, unprecedented,unthinkable, unusual

Certainly a few words in there to describe the forecast

Please note that views expressed are my own and not those of netweather!

Edited November 25, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Coast]

I've actually just picked up another part of the latest Twitter release that amuses me:

USA knocked off course too, then returns to forecast for Thanksgiving.

The inference being that it was the weather in the USA that went wrong, not what Piers had forecast??!!! Really, mother nature ought to follow what he says is going to happen, not something it was going to do anyway!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that it has to be viewed in its whole content when the period forecast is complete. Period between 27 Nov to 28 Dec for exceptional cold. Now if there is say a very cold 4-5 days only but cool or other for the rest then it will be a completely defunked forecast. If however, from say 4 Dec to 28 it is very very cold throughout in Western Europe and UK 'overall' it would be an 80% hit?

I think its the way things are done or said that smother the actual subject and he doesn't help his cause in many cases. I'm going to objectively look at the whole period when done and as I haven't given him any money I'll be a tad more lenient :smiliz64: . Agreed that its not a good start though for sure.

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

If you say that a period of time is going to experience severe cold, then I would expect that more or less that period would have the cold. Take last December for instance, that period was more or less exceptionally cold throughout.

So I would expect any exceptional cold to be delivered more or less throughout the whole period 27th Nov to 28th Dec, according to Piers. And if there isn't exceptional cold delivered throught this period, then, as far as I am concerned then the forecast is wrong. Even if there is a period of snow for the top of Ben Nevis or temporary accumulations elsewhere.

One can't call a forecast wrong until the period has elapsed, though all my experience suggests that it will be.

[Rollo]

Whether Corbyn is right or wrong with his current forecast,the annoything to me is that when he has been proved incorrect in the past instead of admitting his failure he tries to wriggle out of it by claiming such and such is the reason,I would consider him a much better person if he would just admit when he has got it wrong.

[TonyH]

People who make outlandish publicity seeking predictions are not usually the type to back down and admit they are wrong though, perhaps a degree of self delusion also applies with such people?

[Roger J Smith]

I predict that in February he will wish he had said January for December.