Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[Methuselah]

Respect to the guy still spot on with a very mild end to the year

A truly difficult call, one day, given what we've been seeing for the past three months?

[johnholmes]

Respect to the guy still spot on with a very mild end to the year

I have to admire your allegiance to the man-respect is hardly the word I would use for his latest output being only a few days away. What of his initial forecast and its accuracy? But we all have our own views and each of us is entitled to make our comment so long as we do not becpme unpleasant and personal.

I really would like to see ALL the INITIAL lrf outlooks for winter assessed by someone the forum respects as being as near non judgemental as possible-not me I hasten to add!

Edited December 31, 2011 by johnholmes

[Essan]

Respect to the guy still spot on with a very mild end to the year

Aye, if you forcast it to be mild on 2 days of the month and it's mild all month, you're spot on. What a guy!

btw I've just asked PC about next Tuesday's storm - just wish I knew what his actual Jan forecast was predicting for that date.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

What is his forecast for the rest of the winter?, waiting for the LRF one...and then the amended version.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Timmy H

[Nick L]

Respect to the guy still spot on with a very mild end to the year

I know, remember the promised severe cold the past 3/4 weeks? Me neither.

[Essan]

for the record, Piers has declined to answer my question (on whether he forecast the expected storm on Tues) because it 'would be unfair to those who have paid for forecasts'.

Apart from his hinting at 'interesting pressure maps' the only way to know what he is forecasting for this month is to give him money.

[La Bise]

PC fans, I have pills that cure any ailments (thanks to their amazing Telekinetic Macro-Quantic Wave Shifting Technology) - yours for a modest sum.

[Cal]

for the record, Piers has declined to answer my question (on whether he forecast the expected storm on Tues) because it 'would be unfair to those who have paid for forecasts'.

Apart from his hinting at 'interesting pressure maps' the only way to know what he is forecasting for this month is to give him money.

Hi Essan,

for the record he is predicting notable storms inc these dates 11th-13th with a southerly tracking storm (english channel), 25th-27th possible snowstorm as atlantic low (milder air) comes up against cold air across the UK. Quite a contrasting month.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Paul
Sorry, but had to remove due to copyright.

[Essan]

Thanks Cal, appreciated

So he's going for windy weather most of the month (mind, so am I!) But from that, he should not claim a score from Tues storm (assuming it's a bad 'un).

[stewfox]

I know, remember the promised severe cold the past 3/4 weeks? Me neither.

He did a revision end November but its apparent that its fair game to knock the guy, even if certain people haven't got a clue what he said and when !.

[Essan]

He did a revision end November but its apparent that its fair game to knock the guy, even if certain people haven't got a clue what he said and when !.

He revised his forecast to match woth GFS at the end of November, when he realised he was waaaaaaay out. Yes, it was mild at the end of the month as he forecast, but it was mild for much of the month. And he failed to predict either the Christmas Storm or, so it now seems, next week's storm.

He also expected snow at Christmas when for the previous 2 weeks 'standard meteorology' had been going for a mild Christmas, with possible storms in the north (he was 100% wrong, standard meteorology 100% correct).

[Nick L]

He did a revision end November but its apparent that its fair game to knock the guy, even if certain people haven't got a clue what he said and when !.

If he didn't fiercely criticise other forecasters for doing similar things I would have more sympathy for him. I really do not understand the undying support for him by some on this forum. Just look at his track record:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

for the record, Piers has declined to answer my question (on whether he forecast the expected storm on Tues) because it 'would be unfair to those who have paid for forecasts'.

Apart from his hinting at 'interesting pressure maps' the only way to know what he is forecasting for this month is to give him money.

Gales for N/W 3-4 Jan.

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[stewfox]

If he didn't fiercely criticise other forecasters for doing similar things I would have more sympathy for him. I really do not understand the undying support for him by some on this forum. Just look at his track record:

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Piers_Corbyn

I love this

============

The only peer reviewed work conducted involving Corbyn's work was published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2001). Its investigation was limited to Corbyn's 'likely damaging gale periods' predictions for the island of Britain for October 1995 to September 1997. Corbyn's enlisted work (carried out for a consortium of insurance companies) was only for the most likely periods of the strongest winds and specifically not a full forecast to include lesser winds

+++++++++++

[Crepuscular Ray]

Gales for N/W 3-4 Jan.

BFTP

Him, everyone using conventional methods and even me as an art historian looking at the pressure charts can see that one coming at 1-2 days out!

Edited January 2, 2012 by crepuscular ray

[stewfox]

Gales for N/W 3-4 Jan.

BFTP

Forcast 29th November

[Crepuscular Ray]

Forcast 29th November

BFTP - were you referring to a forecast from the end of November as mentioned above for the next couple of days or from another period? Has his prediction for the weather for the next two days been consistent or did he on, e.g., 3 December change it and spend a couple of weeks predicting an unusually mild period (although that seems unlikely)?

He seems to have agreed to take part in the BBC survey on the accuracy of long-term forecasts.

Edited January 2, 2012 by crepuscular ray

[Michael Winston]

Him, everyone using conventional methods and even me as an art historian looking at the pressure charts can see that one coming at 1-2 days out!

Too true, CR.

''A painting is a hypothesis which we test by looking at.''

E.H. Gombrich ( International Herald Tribune August 1991)

I suppose us art historians can test Piers' hypotheses in the same way, but unlike looking at, say, Rembrandt, we can have a bloody good laugh - all too rare in this line of work (art history, that is!). Thanks and a tip of the hat to the late, great Ernie!

Best wishes,

Mike.

P.S. Happy New Year Piers - I bet you didn't predict you'd get that from me! I wonder if he ever reads these threads?

Edited January 2, 2012 by Michael Winston

[Essan]

Gales in the NW in January under zonal conditions is a gimme. Most of Britain is not in the NW. It would appear he failed to predict this storm - must have been that magnetic filament on the sun!

[Methuselah]

He did a revision end November but its apparent that its fair game to knock the guy, even if certain people haven't got a clue what he said and when !.

That's always a problem when one practises pseudoscience?

[IanM]

A New Year and a new warning system, today and tomorrow are rated 2 out of 5, there are a couple of 5 out of 5's (highest warning level) coming up this month, so it looks like 2012 might well be the end of the world after all...

[VillagePlank]

http://www.monbiot.com/2012/01/02/polar-opposites/

[Michael Winston]

http://www.monbiot.c...olar-opposites/

An excellent link - many thanks.

Regards,

Mike

Edited January 3, 2012 by Michael Winston

[johnholmes]

well well a sensible newspaper article at last-there is hope after all!

nice to see he got the same treatment as we mere mortals when asking the super forecasters for information.

[Methuselah]

If he didn't fiercely criticise other forecasters for doing similar things I would have more sympathy for him. I really do not understand the undying support for him by some on this forum. Just look at his track record:

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Piers_Corbyn

Aye Nick, his track record speaks for itself. But, his forcasts are so often wildly inaccurate, who knows why anyone bothers assessing his 'methods'?

As solar weather is itself virtually impossible to predict (even NASA cannot predict it) how can it be of any use whatever to us regular Earthlings? Where is the cause-and-effect?