Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[VillagePlank]

Unfortunately, it's OON, so I have to disagree. Let me tell you, that's got me into heaps of trouble, before ...

[Methuselah]

No puppies are being hurt by this conversation...

[VillagePlank]

All characters appearing in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental. Apart from OON. He really is a pixie digging up tree roots at the end of the garden. Pesky or what!

Edited January 4, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I'm no moderator ....

Ah, that's the exception that proves the rule?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My forecast has been in my sig since mid November. It may not give daily detail but it has been there.

OH and It's a lot closer than PC's first winter forecast! and neither will it change.

Those who don't or haven't forecast.......would I even think you weren't one with all the strat thread going on??????

BFTP

Not really. I don't play football, I know Ipswich are rubbish. I'm talentless, but I still know Amanada Holen is a waste of space. I'm no artist but I know Damian Hirst is taking the mick. If people go about pompously inflating their own importance, what do they expect?

These views are my own, although I suspect a few other people share them.

And all subjective views too Ossie, Ipswich are a darn sight better than Redhill FC so are they really rubbish or rubbish compared to say Premiership clubs etc. Like I say he may earn some disdain but...

BFTP

[IanM]

Yes C it was unchanged. Same old non forecasters mocking, come on guys give out a forecast so one can mock yours....he may earn being shot at but mocking is far more 'palateable' if coming from someone who has given it a good shot themselves.....wouldn't one agree? BFTP

I don't personally issue forecasts, but I support the forecast provided by Stewart for us here, and have quite often stood in front of the steamroller of criticism when it goes wrong, explaining why it went wrong and apologising. It's something that you have to do to remain credible in this business and that stands for short term and long term forecasts, if you get it wrong admit it, explain it and apologise, don't make claims of hits that don't exist, especially not when compared to the 8 page pdf forecast issued to subscribers, and don't ignore the multiple events that just don't happen as if they were never forecast.

If we get it right then I think you'll struggle to find the fanfare and ticker tape parade of self congratulation that others might use to promote their 'hits', and conveniently swerve around the many misses. And I can guarantee we have never issued a press release or main page update that accuses other forecasters of being charlatans and tyre salesmen, or claim that our forecasts would have saved lives, if only someone had paid us to issue a warning rather than support the CO2 alarmist agenda of the government agencies.

Wouldn't it be awesome if the forecasts were correct? Astounding even, perhaps worthy of a Nobel prize and worldwide recognition, fame and riches? Thirty or forty years of research and no scientific peer review? Well we'll just take it on trust then...

[Ladyofthestorm]

I have to admit that was a fantastic article by George Monbiot, it certinaly needed to be said! Unless something drastically changes in the synoptics I think we can put a La Nina cold winter to bed, for a while anyway. Shades of 1999/2000 is what I have felt all along with this one, and I havent been given any other feeling. The atlantic has certainly woken from its slumber and my goodness it is throwing everything at us.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ian, constructive criticism and challenging is so fine but pure dismissal, berating of any forecaster just for sake of it without proper reasoning is as useless and pointless as some think alternative forecasts are?

Yes Piers goes about things wrong way but most of us are guilty of that at times

Hi LOTS, still some time to go yet though? BFTP

Edited January 4, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ladyofthestorm]

Hi LOTS, still some time to go yet though? BFTP

Hi Blasty, happy new year,hope it was a good un. There is still some time to go, but it seems that atlantic just has so much energy, so where is it all coming from? We will get snow, just around the time we move house! I call this the 1st Law of Sods.lol...

[IanM]

Ian, constructive criticism and challenging is so fine but pure dismissal, berating of any forecaster just for sake of it without proper reasoning is as useless and pointless as some think alternative forecasts are?

BFTP

I think you misunderstand me, it's not just dismissal for the sake of it and not without reasoning.

The only reasoning I can use is comparing actual measured data to the published forecast, there is no way to check the reasoning behind production of the forecast, it simply isn't available. For the past year I have compared the forecasts to the actual conditions, and seen the claims of fantastic success, and to be honest they've not been as successful as the headlines imply. A few have been close, even remarkably close, but far more have been wide of the mark, from simply being almost right for the wrong reasons to just not happening at all.

I keep promising myself I won't post in this thread, but seeing people taken in by the self announced great accuracy without actually having read the full forecasts, only the claims of success keeps drawing me back.

As a prime example - the snow on the 15th December, the coldest period of the month. Yep that was in the forecast, as were the other 26 days of snowfall predicted between the 2nd and 27th. along with a cold 'blast' in the run up to and over Xmas with temperatures of -11c, bearing in mind the mid month blast was the coldest period, as forecast. So was that a hit, amongst the other forecast periods of heavy snowfall and temperatures that were forecast to be below -11c? I'd call it a grey area...

[Coast]

still some time to go yet though? BFTP

Indeed and we can draw full conclusions at the end of the season. But as I have posted in this thread already, one specific event was forecast for a specific day in 2011 and £40 was put on it, such was the confidence - it didn't even come close did it? At least Piers gave a full apology on this occasion for misguiding people.

[Essan]

Yes C it was unchanged. Same old non forecasters mocking, come on guys give out a forecast so one can mock yours....he may earn being shot at but mocking is far more 'palateable' if coming from someone who has given it a good shot themselves.....wouldn't one agree? BFTP

But why was it unchanged?

Surely if the unpredicted magnetic filament on the sun in November caused weather patterns to shift from Lunar Type to Stratospheric Wind Type forcing a complete re-write of his December forecast, then we'd expect his Jan forecasts to likewise need changing? Even if we're now back with the expected Lunar Type then surely the past few weeks of unexpected Stratospheric Wind Type weather will mean all subsequent forecasts also need changing as global weather patterns are now different.

(and no, I don't know what all that means either, but it's what Piers assures us happened)

For the record, my winter "prediction" - was "we will see some cold and perhaps snowy weather, most likely in December and January, but that for most people it will be nowhere near as harsh as last winter. We could see more milder, stormier, conditions at times as well. In other words, a normal mix of normal weather. Though like last year I also suspect we'll see an early spring set in in February." Made public on 19th October here

Edit: btw I already concede that the medium range outlook I mentioned in my forecast in UKww last Thursday is wrong since clearly winds have already been every bit as strong, or more so, than we saw in December. I blame the fact I'm a rank amateur and the fact that the High to our south has psersistently refused to push north as I keep expecting it to!

Edited January 4, 2012 by Essan

[Paul]

I don't see why someone should have to have created a forecast in order to comment on or criticise one, but what I do think is quite important is to have actually read the forecast(s). For all those either standing up for, or criticising PC's forecasts how many have actually read the full forecasts and not just watched the videos or read the releases?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think you misunderstand me, it's not just dismissal for the sake of it and not without reasoning.

The only reasoning I can use is comparing actual measured data to the published forecast, there is no way to check the reasoning behind production of the forecast, it simply isn't available. For the past year I have compared the forecasts to the actual conditions, and seen the claims of fantastic success, and to be honest they've not been as successful as the headlines imply. A few have been close, even remarkably close, but far more have been wide of the mark, from simply being almost right for the wrong reasons to just not happening at all.

I keep promising myself I won't post in this thread, but seeing people taken in by the self announced great accuracy without actually having read the full forecasts, only the claims of success keeps drawing me back.

As a prime example - the snow on the 15th December, the coldest period of the month. Yep that was in the forecast, as were the other 26 days of snowfall predicted between the 2nd and 27th. along with a cold 'blast' in the run up to and over Xmas with temperatures of -11c, bearing in mind the mid month blast was the coldest period, as forecast. So was that a hit, amongst the other forecast periods of heavy snowfall and temperatures that were forecast to be below -11c? I'd call it a grey area...

It wasn't aimed at you re dismissal, BUT that is a good constructive criticism post and I agree with you.

BFTP

But why was it unchanged?

Surely if the unpredicted magnetic filament on the sun in November caused weather patterns to shift from Lunar Type to Stratospheric Wind Type forcing a complete re-write of his December forecast, then we'd expect his Jan forecasts to likewise need changing? Even if we're now back with the expected Lunar Type then surely the past few weeks of unexpected Stratospheric Wind Type weather will mean all subsequent forecasts also need changing as global weather patterns are now different.

(and no, I don't know what all that means either, but it's what Piers assures us happened)

Very good point, Dec was plain wrong and I suspect he misread what signals he uses. Jan is unchanged from his mid December outlook, I don't know of and haven't seen a pre December outlook for January or February. Maybe it has changed since that one if it exists.....anyone know the answer to that or have access to Jan outlook issued pre December?

BFTP

[Essan]

I don't see why someone should have to have created a forecast in order to comment on or criticise one, but what I do think is quite important is to have actually read the forecast(s). For all those either standing up for, or criticising PC's forecasts how many have actually read the full forecasts and not just watched the videos or read the releases?

I don't see why you should have to spend money in order to find out a forecast is not nearly so accurate as the vendor claims.

[Paul]

If that's the case I don't disagree! I'm just saying that in terms of 'qualifications' to comment on a forecast (positively or negatively), having read it is quite important

[ARB]

What we need is independent 3rd party verification of forecasts but I suspect that commercial organisations would be reluctant to submit to these. I would like to make the observation that it is in forecasting extremes that forecasting has the most value, and they do tend to highlight such events in their press releases, however I do not see that they have been particularly accurate. Overall I have always found the met office to be the most accurate forecaster, they have made poor forecasts but they do seem to get unfairly judged for other organisations poor forecasts as well!

[jtay]

What we need is independent 3rd party verification of forecasts but I suspect that commercial organisations would be reluctant to submit to these.

Posted this link yesterday, which describes such a process...

From the Radio 4 Today website.

"The BBC's Weather Test, designed to assess the accuracy of UK weather forecasters, has finally defined a protocol by which the forecasters' results will be judged. BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin, who devised the Weather Test, explains the new rules."

See below for details...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9669000/9669983.stm

And PC has signed up to it.

[Essan]

If that's the case I don't disagree! I'm just saying that in terms of 'qualifications' to comment on a forecast (positively or negatively), having read it is quite important

I agree on that. But I have read (and assessed) quite a few of his monthly forecasts in the past and I know how he reinterprets them after the event to mean something other than what was implied initially. This was a classic

[IanM]

Posted this link yesterday, which describes such a process...

From the Radio 4 Today website.

"The BBC's Weather Test, designed to assess the accuracy of UK weather forecasters, has finally defined a protocol by which the forecasters' results will be judged. BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin, who devised the Weather Test, explains the new rules."

See below for details...

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/9669983.stm

And PC has signed up to it.

I wonder how some of the listed forecasters will produce 1, 3 and 5 day forecasts as a well as seasonal forecasts for 35 locations? And how are they measuring the seasonal forecast, have they announced that yet? I guess rain and temperature can be as a % of average, but wind?

[johnholmes]

I am optimistic that it will actually be beneficial although there are points I'm not overhappy with as an ex senior forecaster with UK Met.

The idea, as Ian mentions, of checking 35 places for accuracy is way too many. Pick about 5-6 to give a reasonable spread over the UK and check those would be much more sensible.

I think it will be difficult to assess lrf type outputs but having the same folk do it all the time should iron out any preferences anyone may have for one company. One can hardly expect UK Met to join in that part when they have very pointedly withdrawn from seasonal ouputs. I would think the idea of assessing the different centres using the Met 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks might be a way forward for 'closer' lrf work. Seasonal should only be issued once and assessed at the end of that season in my view.

Like I said to start its at least some movement to getting a reliable assessment. Assessing ones' own forecast is hugely difficult or indeed asking, in UK Met's case, one office to assess another, that is if there are more than Exeter and Aberdeen outside those serving RAF airfields?

Edited January 4, 2012 by johnholmes

[Coast]

It seems this thread is not unique.......

http://skywarn.org.uk/community/index.php?topic=482

[Methuselah]

There's also one on the bad science forum.

[IanM]

Watch out for the thundersnow and hail tonight and tomorrow, it could be nasty out there

[roughyed]

Joe Bastradi is predicting a change mid month with snow forecast. Anything in Piers forecast to back it up?