Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

No real suprises from the ECM this evening. I had a feeling the run would suggest the Euro block would put up more of a fight that the GFS was showing. Where do we go now then? In the blue clorner we have the GFS suggesting an increasing unsettled picture as we enter next weekend and in the red corner we have the ECm suggesting things remain pretty much as they are now with southerly winds from Spain.

One thing is for sure, I'm very confussed. I would say FI begins after 96 hours at the moment.

Edited November 13, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[ukpaul]

Hmm, not sure what to make of the ECM 12z, slows down the lows but they are still inexorably approaching us by 240h. GFS says quick, ECM says slow.

[Frosty.]

No real suprises from the ECM this evening. I had a feeling the run would suggest the Euro block would put up more of a fight that the GFS was showing. Where do we go now then? In the blue clorner we have the GFS suggesting an increasing unsettled picture as we enter next weekend and in the red corner we have the ECm suggesting things remain pretty much as they are now with southerly winds from Spain. One thing is for sure, I'm very confussed. I would say FI begins after 96 hours at the moment.

Yes the Ecm is what I would call a depressing prospect with more of the same although surely not as mild as the recent 16-18c, I believe parts of the west and sw recorded 17or 18c today but as we get much deeper into november the chances of that are surely gone but 12-14c would be probable with winds from the south..please let the gfs be right this time.

[nick sussex]

The ECM is very reluctant to push troughing in to the UK and the Euro limpet ridge returns for a while.However both the GFS and ECM have the overall same NH pattern which is a strong flat jet and deepening PV to the north.

In these situations you want a clear winner, either a strong Euro ridge which can at least get far enough north for some surface cold or lows to make it east of the UK but further south.

Unfortunately neither of these look like occuring and the output this evening is very poor if you're looking for cold.

You can take solace from the fact its November and not mid winter, there is plenty of time for changes.

Edited November 13, 2011 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

You can take solace from the fact its November and not mid winter, there is plenty of time for changes.

yes let's get the dross out of the way this month and look forward to a cold winter.

[phil nw.]

Agreed, there has been an OTT negative response to the first gfs run to bring colder zoneality to the uk and will hopefully be a trend that the models build on in the coming days, if we can get those lows to the north east if the british isles, we will have a cold snap at least but the euro block has to be removed first and the changes on the gfs 12z are still 5-7 days away.

The output in general is not inspiring for anyone looking for cold though PL.

The Euro.heights are never far away and a flatter upstream pattern promises a mild zonal flow although not always too unsettled nearer to the South and East nearer those Heights.

The problem is with this sort of setup any ridging from the west gets flattened fairly easily and any incursions of PM air are quite brief and with the jet tending on a more SW-NE angle any cooler air is often modified.

[Cloud 10]

Unfortunately neither of these look like occuring and the output this evening is very poor if you're looking for cold.

The 12z ECM is the Salem's Lot run for coldies!

....must remember it's only november......must remember it's only november....

[Snowstorm1]

The ECM is very reluctant to push troughing in to the UK and the Euro limpet ridge returns for a while.However both the GFS and ECM have the overall same NH pattern which is a strong flat jet and deepening PV to the north.

In these situations you want a clear winner, either a strong Euro ridge which can at least get far enough north for some surface cold or lows to make it east of the UK but further south.

Unfortunately neither of these look like occuring and the output this evening is very poor if you're looking for cold.

You can take solace from the fact its November and not mid winter, there is plenty of time for changes.

Which one if you had to take Nick would you take the GFS or ECM?

[cold snap]

only november no time for panic,but if it cold you want ,you are going to have a wait for a while yet.i for one would love to see a zonal flow now,this may unlock the door going forward,however its not a guarentee,i just feel its a better option to what we have currently

[Tim M]

Been an avid reader on here for years, now decided to post so be gentle! ... Is there any chance of seeing the sun in the foreseeable here in Mansfield? In the past week there was brief glimpse for 10 minutes yesterday. That means a whole week and just 10 minutes of sunshine - and I am not exagerating. Amazing, Even yesterday when the persistent drizzle of most of last week stopped, the ground didn't even dry out at all. Now the forecast says more of the same for us for the next week, drizzle, mist, low cloud but no sun!

[karyo]

I've just checked the models and I shouldn't have bothered!

We are seeing the likelihood of a horrendous combination: active jet to the north, persistence of high pressure in central/southern Europe and now to add insult to the injury, the emergence of a pressure rise in the Azores (as seen on ECM)!

This pattern can be a nightmare to shift and it's what dominated the UK winters prior to 2008!

The stratosphere is colder than normal which means that high latitude blocking is unlikely until/if a stratospheric warming occurs and the possibility of the jet staying to the north of the UK is likely to persist now that the sun is in a more active phase than in previous winters!

Karyo

[Geordiesnow]

Personally I can see both side of the arguments because if the Atlantic does come into play more then it will at times bring more cooler seasonal weather and if you get lucky with an Azores ridge then a Northerly set up increases in chance yet if you keep the height rises and if the Euro/Azores high links up with it successfully then we can get cold weather coming in from the East but both set ups have there flaws though.

It does look more and more likely whatever high pressure we do have to our North won't be affecting our weather in anyway regarding cold prospects so it will be interesting if the Euro high or the Atlantic will win out in their battle. Must say at this stage the "Atlantic onslaught" looks ever so unlikely but a less mild outlook at least for the next working week looks likely especially if theres clear skies and light winds thanks to the cooler air we will experience.

[BarometerBunts]

I am getting the feeling of deja vu here. Models seem to be flip flopping from run to run and speaking from a layperson's point of view having followed this thread for a couple of years, I recall two very salient observations. Firstly, more often than not when models appear very diverse, there appears that a change is imminent and secondly I vaguely recall someone saying "let the cold come and the rest will follow". If as a coldie we are seeking the holy grail then imo the grandaddy of them all started just after Christmas (and I wasn't born then for the record) and lasted for months. I can fully understand frustrations if we were in the first/second week of December but we are not. This is Autumn and I don't look out of my window and see Spring or Summer. Let's just enjoy the experience and learn from those who are kind enough to teach.

[Richie V]

I've just checked the models and I shouldn't have bothered!

We are seeing the likelihood of a horrendous combination: active jet to the north, persistence of high pressure in central/southern Europe and now to add insult to the injury, the emergence of a pressure rise in the Azores (as seen on ECM)!

This pattern can be a nightmare to shift and it's what dominated the UK winters prior to 2008!

The stratosphere is colder than normal which means that high latitude blocking is unlikely until/if a stratospheric warming occurs and the possibility of the jet staying to the north of the UK is likely to persist now that the sun is in a more active phase than in previous winters!

Karyo

Indeed, a very falt NH jet train developing. Serious question.... Am I the only member after stormy zonal conditions?

[Matty M]

Very poor models for coldies this evening. Things look really poor. But it is only mid November, but we could hit a patter than will take 4-6 weeks to shift.

[Liam J]

Indeed, a very falt NH jet train developing. Serious question.... Am I the only member after stormy zonal conditions?

I'm in, it's been far too long, the charts are looking promising especially the GFS

[A Winter's Tale]

Yes, we all must remember that it's ONLY November! In my lifetime, I've only seen snow 7 or 8 snowfalls in November and 2 thirds of them were during last November so it's pretty rare here. I'm not worrying about the winter yet and remember that classic winters can start after Christmas and a memroable winter could happen thanks to an incredibly cold second half of Febuary.

At this stage, snow at the end of the month is not entirely impossible. If we end up having no snow during November then so what. If there's no snow in the first half of December then that's not a problem if we get our snow later in the month and late on the winter. Take 2009/2010 as an example of a snow starved November and half December before we had one of the coldest and snowiest winters ever.

Personally, I would only begin to worry if we've had no snow by December 15th with no snow for the future as I like my winters to balanced in terms of cold and snow and I prefer to have the best of the winter around Christmas. If we had little in the way of decent snow and cold by the middle of January then I would be really worried then still the following month could see a Febuary 2009 event or even be as potent as December 2010.

With the pattern we've got now, I'd say that we will struggle to see snow this month and for most of the first part of the next. I think the potential for cold and snow will increase after mid December with the potential for a white Christmas if we see things turn more favourable in December (i.e our first cold spell or winter weather of the season after frustrating autumn and December). January also looks like a better bet this year for cold and snow and even Febuary could see something decent.

But complaining about no snow in November is nonsense when there are 3 months of winter and a Spring to get our cold and snow.

I think the saying of this winter will be "Patience".

In the meantime, as there is currently nothing in the way of snow in a non winter month, well I think I should give model watching a break and return right at the end of the month to see if there are any lovely surprises in store.

[bobbydog]

whats wrong with this then? (apart fom "being in FI"... "unlikely to verify"... blah blah blah....)

ist a change isnt it?

[Summer Sun]

Nothing extremely cold here

http://hw.nwstatic.c...erdeenshire.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/t2mLondon.png

Cooler yes but around the seasonal average

Pressure charts

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111113/12/prmslAberdeenshire.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111113/12/prmslLondon.png

[Anti Boring Weather]

<p style="margin-left: 40px;">The ECM is a borefest, it feels like the same pattern keeps on repeating itself, with strong heights to our south and east, and just more of the usual boring mild, dry and cloudy weather. thank god its only mid november</p>

[Jason T]

whats wrong with this then? (apart fom "being in FI"... "unlikely to verify"... blah blah blah....)

ist a change isnt it?

Nothing at all,Just FI. However im sure that was shown in last nights 18z,Maybe just maybe NW is the way to go,If i have that right.

[bobbydog]

come on GP, i can see you lurking there, whats your take on the latest outputs?

[shotski]

An early start to winter in Russia and eastern europe starting to kick in at the moment, Moscow could be in for

a severe winter indeed. Maybe our best chances are from the east this winter. sorry if off topic.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I've looked at the 12z and yes again it shows a change ahead. What it doesn't show is a jet north. Folk should have a look at the jet forecast in the datacentre...it is subject to change for sure like the models BUT it doesn't show the jet north of the UK throughout the run, indeed it solidifies to run generally along latitude southern half of UK dipping SE wards into Europe. Any talk of the jet being north looking at the 12z run is erroneous, we would defo get interesting weather with that run, the kitchen sink. Plenty to play for ahead and no reason to be down beat at all...plenty can, and looking at the outlook, will happen.

BFTP

[cold snap]

if you were to take the charts at face value and 100 percent in coming off you would rule out cold in november.high presure to the east which goes and comes back for a repeat performance,then a possibility of a bartlett high,these patterns take a long time to shift.thank the lord this is not a main winter month