Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

[mountain shadow]

does anyone have the ens from the 12Z...

You'll find them in the data section. Nothing there to look at for coldies.

[Paul]

Latest outlook from Michael Fish is below - he also looks at the blocking high pressure which has caused the recent mild but fairly static weather:

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(Please don't ask any questions for him in this thread)

[weather_it_will]

I do hope that GFS storm is just the normal over deepening of lows that especially the 12hrs is known for, that could be very dangerous. The UKMO does have low pressure to the sw at 144hrs ready to track ne but it looks much weaker and unlikely to develop as the GFS.

Not much support on the ensembles 12Z, and most likely GFS is over doing it as usual.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

All 3 major models now have this potential storm showing at T144, agree with earlier posts though that it probably wouldn't be as severe as GFS is modeling.

[Liam J]

All 3 major models now have this potential storm showing at T144, agree with earlier posts though that it probably wouldn't be as severe as GFS is modeling.

UKMO has something quite different @ 144hrs, just a flabby area of low pressure, nothing like the GFS.

[wimblettben]

I am hoping that that low doesn't get downgraded as I really do need some spice in my life after the long wait for any windy weather this Autumn.

It is very likely though that it will get downgraded but at least all three main models are showing it now and not just the GFS.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

UKMO has something quite different @ 144hrs, just a flabby area of low pressure, nothing like the GFS.

Yes UKMO is rather flabby, ECM on the other hand is quite tight, similar to GFS, worth keeping an eye on.

Edit: comes to nothing on ECM

Edited November 17, 2011 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Liam J]

Yes UKMO is rather flabby, ECM on the other hand is quite tight, similar to GFS, worth keeping an eye on.

ECM takes the depression towards NW Scotland, just as the GFS control run does only not quite as deep.

[bobbydog]

I am hoping that that low doesn't get downgraded as I really do need some spice in my life after the long wait for any windy weather this Autumn.

It is very likely though that it will get downgraded but at least all three main models are showing it now and not just the GFS.

get yourself a girlfriend mate. it might take your mind of the weather for a while, and if it doesn't work out at least you will end up with a severe depression....

[Liam J]

I am hoping that that low doesn't get downgraded as I really do need some spice in my life after the long wait for any windy weather this Autumn.

It is very likely though that it will get downgraded but at least all three main models are showing it now and not just the GFS.

Only the GFS shows a very deep area of low pressure with no support, the other models have a much more toned down version and have it positioned much further to the north west.

[January Snowstorm]

I've heard of death by chocolate but I think tonight it's death by ECM !!

Anyone want to see a bartlett in all it's glory, check out 192hrs ECM

[Isolated Frost]

192 ECM looks more like a continuous belt of the subtropical ridge through much of Europe.

But this looks like a bartlett?!

[Geordiesnow]

I've heard of death by chocolate but I think tonight it's death by ECM !!

Anyone want to see a bartlett in all it's glory, check out 192hrs ECM

Yet funnily enough if there was much PPN on that chart, there would be some snowfall for the highlands with the -5 briefly touching the far North, actually for a cold fans POV, the chart itself is not bad as there is cooler air over the North but of course in the overall picture its not a good chart for snow lovers!

Although the current set up is poor for snow lovers there has been some slight positive changes for those who want more interesting and cooler weather. I noticed from the 12Z runs(I havant seen earlier runs so can't comment on them) but its seems to me from yesterday's 12Z runs that the mild SW'lies via high pressure to the South and an Atlantic low to the North has not really moved any closer to the reliable timeframe. The Atlantic seems more of a player in today's runs which helps to bring some cooler air and the UKMO looks the "coolest" run out of them all however I suspect the 168 hour chart will show the mild SW'lies taking hand.

Despite that, we are only in mid November and only the far GFS FI's charts show the weather for a few days in December so as we know things can change for the better for snow lovers.

Edit: The ECM 12Z latter part of the run does not show a bartlett in my eyes as the Atlantic gets rid of it pretty quickly, i'm sure a Bartlett is where high pressure and mild SW'lies are more persistent?

Edited November 17, 2011 by Geordiesnow

[Kentish Kiwi]

I've heard of death by chocolate but I think tonight it's death by ECM !!

Anyone want to see a bartlett in all it's glory, check out 192hrs ECM

Can you really call it a bartlett though? By +240 its pretty much disorganised into an area of slack high pressure of 1020hPa. I though one of the prerequisites of a bartlett was its longevity?

[phil nw.]

After a quiet few days the 12zs show an increasing amount of energy spinning off the Vortex as we go into the medium term.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=138&size=0

The Euro block eventually gets flattened and it looks like we will enter a period of more typical zonal weather with alternating spells of rain and drier intervals but never cold.

Later on much of the modelling shows the Azores high extending eastwards into S.Europe and a flat jet with low pressure to our north.

Really the overall NH pattern shows little change but with increasing energy in the system further on, any high pressure to our South and East is quickly flattened as a succession of fronts move in from the west.

[Summer Sun]

Christmas day chart from cfs, unsettled with snow for the North

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2011/11/15/basis00/euro/pslv/11122512_1500.gif

And coming to the end of December high pressure keeps it settled.

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2011/11/15/basis00/euro/pslv/11123012_1500.gif

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Christmas day chart from cfs, unsettled with snow for the North

http://expertcharts....122512_1500.gif

And coming to the end of December high pressure keeps it settled.

http://expertcharts....123012_1500.gif

Although those charts are a long way out even by FI standards what is pleasing me is that the stubborn Euro high seems to have transfered to a more 'normal' position allowing our traditional weather types to affect us.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well i went and loooked at the ecm.

I wish i hadn't.

chino your updates in the stratosphere thread are fast becoming my only salvation (And even they have been very disappointing )

[cold snap]

are gfs and ecm trying to model some sort of storm next thursday?

[wolvesfan]

Evening all,

I know GFS in particular is showing a more atlantic influence from aound t120 on 12z ,i wouldn't be at all surprised to see pressure remain high though,a lot of the ensemble members continuing to keep it high.

I'm hoping we do see something more zonal as i think this is our best shot for anything colder,if we can keep north side of the polar jet i think theres plenty of oppurtunity for NW incursions that will bring -5 uppers delivering snowfall,we know they'll be shortlived affairs but the pattern will bring reloads.this IMHO our best shot for cold pre christmas.

As we see a seasonal reduction of the sub tropical ridge as winter progresses,and also a warming of the strat which could happen at some point,seeing though it's colder than normal at the moment,we may then see mid to northern lattitude high pressure have more oppurtunity to build into cold delivering position.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

How about we name it a PARTLETT...a passing Bartlett?

BFTP

[jonnybradley]

NOOB here. First post so go easy on us! Have been trying to follow this thread in the search of something wintry for the Western Alps.

Has anybody been following the jet stream in the models? Mr Fish and the BBC chap both point to the jet as part of our current mild stuck in a rut. Just had a look at the GFS charts for jet stream. From my very un trained eye it looks like it is trying to move further north (from 60+) which would indicate a change to current patterns?

Have I just made this up or is there anything in the jet stream modeling to indicate change

Thanks all

J

Edited November 17, 2011 by jonnybradley

[Frosty.]

By T+240, the ecm is possibly indicating the last rites of the blocked pattern for the uk but will it end there or will the block hold for longer? The gfs is still showing an unsettled outlook but looks a bit out of sync next week with..how shall I put it, some unusual looking charts with small dartboard lows over the uk, the gfs again shows pressure rises from southern europe later and that could delay the onset of any cold zoneality through early december. If the ecm verifies, a mild or very mild week ahead, winds increasing strong in the nw with some rain but pressure remaining high to the southeast and temps well above average.

[Richie V]

I do hope that GFS storm is just the normal over deepening of lows that especially the 12hrs is known for, that could be very dangerous. The UKMO does have low pressure to the sw at 144hrs ready to track ne but it looks much weaker and unlikely to develop as the GFS.

We're long overdue a severe storm Nick, The last major storm was October 20 - 2000 when I recorded a Hpa minimum of 947.8. Long overdue in my eyes (You know how I feel about this ) I find that inside the 120 hrs timeframe GFS is pretty good with storm progging, anything further out and the tendancy is to overdeepen systems. As ever.... Needs watching even if the odds of varifiying are less than 30%!

[bluearmy]

both ecm and naefs spreads have the depression next weekend passing just to the north of scotland.