29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Wivenswold]

I think a serious dose of reality is required by anyone looking at models 7 days out in a set-up like this. You are almost certainly staring disappointment in the face.

We have an extremely unstable system so nailing down detail 24 hours out is going to be difficult. All models point to shortwave developments heading towards the UK but don't even try to second guess where and when these will actually develop until we're in the +12hrs timeframe at most.

Last thing we want is a weekend of toys being thrown out of the pram because the UK wasn't hit by a once in a 200 years windstorm event (24 years after the last one).

[Coast]

Here's a potential track of today's cold front as it travels East:

[Liam J]

Tomorrow nights wind event isn't nailed on completely with some variations in how the models want to develop the low or associated short waves. The NAE has an interesting feature running over N England during the early hours of Thursday which would bring severe gales over the Irish sea and into N England.

Currently experiencing very heavy rainfall, the winds are easing off all the time.

Temps well down into single figures over Ireland after the passage of the cold front.

Edited November 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Lauren]

If this does come to be, can we expect thunderstorms or will this be purely a wind and rain event?

[Aaron]

Could be some localised thunder, but otherwise no.

[Nick B]

A very clear if slightly fragmented squall line showing up on the rainfall radar at the moment, stretching from Eastern Scotland down to Cornwall.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Lauren]

Yes, you're right, quite clear line.

This is going to sound stupid but....I thought tornadoes brought thunder and lightning with them, or does that only occur in warmer climates?

[weatherobsuk]

78mph gust recorded in Capel Curig within the past half-hour.

[Liam J]

The wind is now a strong and gusty westerly, temp 8.5c a fall of nearly 3 degrees over the last 2 hours. Pressure 988hpa.

Edited November 29, 2011 by Liam J

[weatherobsuk]

Wave heights for this weekends storm in the North, some exceptional high-seas for a time aswell as the likelyhood of coastal flooding for many parts (including the Irish Sea coasts if the storm surge forces its way through the Irish gap.)

[cyclonic happiness]

Wow! thje wind is really fierce here for the midlands!

Was this forecast as there are no weather warnings for are region and we're getting gusts of almost 50mph?

The squall line does look interesting as well doesn't it?

It's so nice to see some 'active' weather for once after so many months of dull nothingness, I'm even forgiving the lack of cold in favour for 'action'

[knocker]

The midday chart and the position of the cold front. Actually it's easy to pick out if you look closely. Perhaps not the trough over Ireland. Added the Camborne sounding for good measure as it's right on the front. Note SW jet at 300mb.

Edited November 29, 2011 by weather ship

[Arnie Pie]

Just on to todays events, am i noticing some kind of squall line developing at the rear of all the wet stuff coming in from the West.

Currently across Wales :unsure:

Edit sorry didn`t notice your post Nick

Edited November 29, 2011 by Arnie Pie

[weatherobsuk]

Forcing now starting to take place with the squall-line. Further developments to come in terms of convective cells breaking out along the ana-prop line, the most evident being around Blackpool right now. A 78mph gust was recorded at Capel Curig, with convection inhibition this may bring the uppers down even further along the back of the Cold Front where the expected trough is placed.

[Jane Louise]

It's certainly rough out here in the open. very windy with heavy rain now!

[Coast]

A quick walk around the housing estate next to our factory and 9 out of 10 wheelie bins are over. Should make a great playground for the seagulls and foxes later!

[Liam J]

Wow! thje wind is really fierce here for the midlands!

Was this forecast as there are no weather warnings for are region and we're getting gusts of almost 50mph?

The squall line does look interesting as well doesn't it?

It's so nice to see some 'active' weather for once after so many months of dull nothingness, I'm even forgiving the lack of cold in favour for 'action'

Yes it's been a very active day so far, you will experience gusty winds and notice a sharp drop in temperature as the front crosses over your area.

Warnings don't get issued for gusts of 50mph, as this poses little threat to transport or day to day life. When gusts are predicted to reach 60-70mph+ then the warnings will be issued accordingly.

Edited November 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Unfortunately the winds are much lighter behind the cold front too. Was really enjoying today too! Best weather this year!

[Richie V]

Wind has just veered W at Capel Curig with a gust of 81 mph

[Zenarcher]

For the Saturday and Sunday low all the models are agreeing on its path although its exact position is still unknown we are increasingly getting confident on its placement. How deep it will go is still unknown at this time but at the moment only the far North of Scotland would see the strongest winds.

For the Monday storm not all the models are agreeing on its path or strength but the ECM and GFS show something similar meanwhile the UKMO doesn't show anything like it.

[Raidan]

Weather not that bad here,light rain and wind not that bad,Gardeners next door able to work on the hedge ok,is it likely to pep up in the SW later?

[Chris K]

Weather not that bad here,light rain and wind not that bad,Gardeners next door able to work on the hedge ok,is it likely to pep up in the SW later?

A heavy line of rain is about to cross over us with gusty winds. Won't last overly long by looks of the radar and it will clear behind as it turns a bit cooler as well.

Some showers look like they are packing in from behind though, currently crossing Ireland.

Edited November 29, 2011 by Bugganuts

[cyclonic happiness]

Yes it's been a very active day so far, you will experience gusty winds and notice a sharp drop in temperature as the front crosses over your area.

Warnings don't get issued for gusts of 50mph, as this poses little threat to transport or day to day life. When gusts are predicted to reach 60-70mph+ then the warnings will be issued accordingly.

It does whan you ride a motorbike, anything over 40 is dangerous, especially the modern bikes with no weight and acres of fairing.

[Aaron]

Squall fizzled before getting here.. how did I have a feeling that would happen?

[Liam J]

It does whan you ride a motorbike, anything over 40 is dangerous, especially the modern bikes with no weight and acres of fairing.

I understand but I don't think any weather organisation will start to issue warnings based on motorbikes for wind gusts of 40-50mph. they focus on the whole picture and the likely impact on the infrastructure due to severe gales which could cause damage to buildings and uprooted trees falling on roads etc causing injury or worse.

Edited November 29, 2011 by Liam J