29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Isolated Frost]

GFS tends to be the one model that usually over does the strength of lows at a distant timeframe.

Indeed, but is +102 really that distant?

[knightrider]

I probably wont be loosing any sleep over this then lol :-) I bet we get nothing at all

Indeed, but is +102 really that distant?

True it isn't really is it it's less then 7 days and weekly forecasts are much more accurate thesedays!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

OH MY DAYS :s If this happens and of course changes will happen..Good luck Uk :/

[wimblettben]

Indeed, but is +102 really that distant?

When the weather is in an active phase as it is now generally timeframes of even just a day can still have large changes in the models output and the actual outcome.

I am not saying that it will definately not happen but it just seems unlikely to verify at the moment. If future models continue to show it then I will start to worry more.

[knightrider]

OH MY DAYS :s If this happens and of course changes will happen..Good luck Uk :/

The Swarm that new coaster at Thorpe Park looks great dont it? If this happens though it might get blown straight back down lol

[Robbie Garrett]

http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/2365319.stm

Isn't this the last time a storm hit the south of the UK, with similar devastation/potential??

EGLC 271150Z 26033G51KT 220V290 9999 BKN040 13/03 Q1000

EGLL 270920Z 25043G64KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIG

EGMC 271050Z 25047G64KT 9999 BKN043 14/// Q0996

http://www.metoffice...t2002storm.html

This storm took a few trees out where I used to live, in Duwlich - I think because we are 200ft up the winds where at least 70mph-80mph - as the tree that fell was huge.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The Swarm that new coaster at Thorpe Park looks great dont it? If this happens though it might get blown straight back down lol

haha it looks good but I personally don't like roller coasters lol , it would be MEGA windy lol!

[knightrider]

An eye needs keeping on the potential for some particularly windy weather later Sunday and into Monday - we'll keep you updated on this throughout the coming days..

This quoted at the end of the latest main Netweather news update!

http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/2365319.stm

Isn't this the last time a storm hit the south of the UK, with similar devastation/potential??

EGLC 271150Z 26033G51KT 220V290 9999 BKN040 13/03 Q1000

EGLL 270920Z 25043G64KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIG

EGMC 271050Z 25047G64KT 9999 BKN043 14/// Q0996

This storm took a few trees out where I used to live, in Duwlich - I think because we are 200ft up the winds where at least 70mph-80mph - as the tree that fell was huge.

Yes that would be the last what I'd call major storm to truely effect the south of the UK and in particular London and the Home Counties, the January 07 storm was close but didn't really effect the south-eastern corner as much as more western areas. I remember this storm well and also a couple of years before we had the 29th-30th October 2000 storm which was the worst I can remember it was gusting in access of 85-90mph right through the night!

haha it looks good but I personally don't like roller coasters lol , it would be MEGA windy lol!

Ohh I luv rollercoasters

[weatherobsuk]

Transitionary vectors carry the swell of Sunday/Mondays low into the North Sea and towards the East Coast * Netherlands, definitely something to be on the watch for as the heights around Scotland and Ireland are substantially high for a moderate duration.

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/

[Robbie Garrett]

An eye needs keeping on the potential for some particularly windy weather later Sunday and into Monday - we'll keep you updated on this throughout the coming days..

This quoted at the end of the latest main Netweather news update!

Yes that would be the last what I'd call major storm to truely effect the south of the UK and in particular London and the Home Counties, the January 07 storm was close but didn't really effect the south-eastern corner as much as more western areas. I remember this storm well and also a couple of years before we had the 29th-30th October 2000 storm which was the worst I can remember it was gusting in access of 85-90mph right through the night!

Ohh I luv rollercoasters

The 2007 one I remember, but not as much as the 2000/2002 storm. Maybe history is repeating itself? A 10 year cycle of severe weather storms for the Autumn/Winter period. But that secondary low or whatever it is, has potential.

[Wivenswold]

I'm pretty sure we had the potential for something similar a few months back. A shallow low hitching a lift on a strong jet stream and GFS gradually moving it North and downgrading it on each run in the 3 or 4 days before it hit. This could be a feature of GFS programming so this is why I'm less certain it will evolve as currently shown.

[wimblettben]

There have been times in the past where Models have shown windy setups only for them to downgrade around only 2 days before the event.

If this system does verify though then I would expect it would bring widespread gales to severe gales for England and Wales.

[Liam J]

Wouldn't be the first time they have got it right either.

The Meto town forecast does predict severe gales with gusts to 70mph for my location.

I'm looking at the progged mean wind speeds through the Irish Sea this evening, which are 50-55mph and would certainly produce gusts of over 70mph in exposed areas.

The severe gales which occurred during October the 17th the Meto made a blunder and underestimated the wind speeds, I recorded a gust to 76mph during the afternoon with many more of 70mph+ and some buildings were damaged with a kids nursery losing it's whole roof and a few trees were uprooted around the local area.

The strongest winds this evening are actually predicted to be over the Irish Sea, S Scotland and N England See image below, I have edited the correct mean wind speeds which you can see in the arrows, anyway we shall see what tonight brings

Gusts around 45mph atm as the wind continues to strengthen.

GFS has downgraded the storm for Sunday/Monday and looks more inline with the ECM with a shortwave running through the channel, JMA does show a very deep depression but much further north and would bring the strongest winds to N England S scotland - this event or non event which may be the case is nowhere near cut and dried yet, wait until Thursday night and Fridays runs.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[knightrider]

The 2007 one I remember, but not as much as the 2000/2002 storm. Maybe history is repeating itself? A 10 year cycle of severe weather storms for the Autumn/Winter period. But that secondary low or whatever it is, has potential.

Yes I remember the 2007 storm for sure, we had gusts of about 75 to 80mph for a short time around lunchtime that day but it was a very brief squally spell the rest of the day was just moderate gale-force 40mph gusts so it was a little bit of an anti-climax in my neck of the woods, certainly the 2000 and 2002 storms where more extreme for pretty much everyone across Southern England and Wales with widespread gusts of 80mph+ and your right about the 10 year cycle of big storms etc... Because the decade before them storms we had the Burn's Day storm of 1990 and the severe gales of 1993, we also had a stormy period in the late 90's what with ex-Hurricane Lillie in 1996 and the December/January storms in the iLL Nino winter of 1997/98.

[wimblettben]

Doesn't look that bad now as expected for Sunday and Monday.

[knightrider]

Doesn't look that bad now as expected for Sunday and Monday.

Urm this looks quite bad to me, this is just after the storm has swept through by the looks of it. :huh:

[wimblettben]

This is a forecast wind map I found for Sunday.

Looks like mean speeds around 45mph to 50mph in the English channel! This would probably bring 50mph+ gusts in inland Southern England so not as bad as before but still pretty windy.

[knightrider]

This is a forecast wind map I found for Sunday.

Looks like mean speeds around 45mph to 50mph in the English channel! This would probably bring 50mph+ gusts in inland Southern England so not as bad as before but still pretty windy.

It'll move down the channel, where have we heard that before lol I think to say mean speeds of 45-50mph in the English channel means gusts will be no worse then 50mph inland is cutting things abit fine, if the south coast is getting battered then places further inland will still be quite vulnerable. Mean speeds of 45-50mph means gusts upwards of 85mph occasionally 100mph, so normally you only have to knock about 20mph off for the inland windspeeds so 30mph mean speed for example means gusts of 60mph+

Interesting to see GFS already has gusts of 55mph for my location Sunday afternoon/evening

[Liam J]

It'll move down the channel, where have we heard that before lol I think to say mean speeds of 45-50mph in the English channel means gusts will be no worse then 50mph inland is cutting things abit fine, if the south coast is getting battered then places further inland will still be quite vulnerable. Mean speeds of 45-50mph means gusts upwards of 85mph occasionally 100mph, so normally you only have to knock about 20mph off for the inland windspeeds so 30mph mean speed for example means gusts of 60mph+

The wind would be much higher than that to produce gusts of 100mph, more like violent storm force 11 to hurricane force 12 with means of 65mph+

Mean speeds of 45-50mph generally gusts would be around 65-75mph in exposure, so 45-55mph inland roughly, in most cases as a rule of thumb I would normally add on 20mph or so, perhaps 30mph onto predicted mean winds for the gust speeds.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[wimblettben]

It'll move down the channel, where have we heard that before lol I think to say mean speeds of 45-50mph in the English channel means gusts will be no worse then 50mph inland is cutting things abit fine, if the south coast is getting battered then places further inland will still be quite vulnerable. Mean speeds of 45-50mph means gusts upwards of 85mph occasionally 100mph, so normally you only have to knock about 20mph off for the inland windspeeds so 30mph mean speed for example means gusts of 60mph+

The predicted mean speeds inland though are showing anywhere from 22mph to 28mph so it would produce gusts of above 50mph but not above 60mph. It s only one run anyway so it might change again later.

[knightrider]

The wind would be much higher than that to produce gusts of 100mph, more like violent storm force 11 to hurricane force 12 with means of 65mph+

Mean speeds of 45-50mph generally gusts would be around 65-75mph in exposure, so 45-55mph inland roughly.

Arn't gusts generally supposed to be around double the mean speeds? That's what I was always told anyway!

[Robbie Garrett]

I'm pretty sure we had the potential for something similar a few months back. A shallow low hitching a lift on a strong jet stream and GFS gradually moving it North and downgrading it on each run in the 3 or 4 days before it hit. This could be a feature of GFS programming so this is why I'm less certain it will evolve as currently shown.

The Ex Hurricane? The thread that I infamously started a week before it hit.

Yes I remember the 2007 storm for sure, we had gusts of about 75 to 80mph for a short time around lunchtime that day but it was a very brief squally spell the rest of the day was just moderate gale-force 40mph gusts so it was a little bit of an anti-climax in my neck of the woods, certainly the 2000 and 2002 storms where more extreme for pretty much everyone across Southern England and Wales with widespread gusts of 80mph+ and your right about the 10 year cycle of big storms etc... Because the decade before them storms we had the Burn's Day storm of 1990 and the severe gales of 1993, we also had a stormy period in the late 90's what with ex-Hurricane Lillie in 1996 and the December/January storms in the iLL Nino winter of 1997/98.

Yeah, I remember it now - mostly just rain the 2007 one for me in London. But that one in 2000/2002 was a serious guy. Let's see if Lauren on Sunday/Monday comes to frutiion.

Anyways speaking of storms, I never know there was potential for anything convective today. CB's scattered.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Zenarcher]

Started to get windy here gusting to 45mph and expecting stronger winds later today.

For this evening and into early Thursday I have made a wind map,

For the Saturday and Sunday low it's still where it was last night and can't see much changing although its interesting to see the ECM downgrading it a bit. So still gales or severe gales across Scotland on Saturday night.

As for the Sunday/Monday wind event none of the models really support the GFS at the moment. it's when they all start to agree we can become more confident and that will probably happen this Thursday or Friday.

[Liam J]

Arn't gusts generally supposed to be around double the mean speeds? That's what I was always told anyway!

On some occasions gusts can be double in certain circumstances, but from years of watching wind speeds and gusts etc the gusts tend to be around 20-30mph in excess of mean speeds.

See my edited post above and weathermasters wind map chart for later, the gusts are generally as I mentioned above.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[knightrider]

On some occasions gusts can be double in certain circumstances, but from years of watching wind speeds and gusts etc the gusts tend to be around 20-30mph in excess of mean speeds.

See my edited post above and weathermasters wind map chart for later, the gusts are generally as I mentioned above.

Yeah so 30mph in access so for 30mph mean speed double = 60mph

Started to get windy here gusting to 45mph and expecting stronger winds later today.

For this evening and into early Thursday I have made a wind map,

For the Saturday and Sunday low it's still where it was last night and can't see much changing although its interesting to see the ECM downgrading it a bit. So still gales or severe gales across Scotland on Saturday night.

As for the Sunday/Monday wind event none of the models really support the GFS at the moment. it's when they all start to agree we can become more confident and that will probably happen this Thursday or Friday.

Interesting to see that wind chart for tonight has SE corner for gusts upwards of 40mph approaching 60mph for a time at least, 58mph to be exact