29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Liam J]

It's going to be a few days of model watching yet before we can have more confidence in this event or not which may be the case, still conflicting guidance on the final synoptic outcome at the mo.

The event is 5 days away so I would expect more twists and turns over the coming days throughout the model runs with changes in the track and intensity of this low, I expect by Friday we should have a much more confident idea on how this will play out.

It will depend on how the depression interacts with the main low which is progged to race across the Atlantic during Saturday, The models are struggling to get a handle on this interaction as it involves a surface depression currently NE of the Leeward Islands and an upper trough over the Canadian Arctic. Neither area has huge data coverage and the interaction (or not) between the two is causing some headaches.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[weatherobsuk]

Sea heights across the weekend period continue to look interesting. Rather than a simple passing through of the LP it seems the heights are maintained over a duration of many hours before they abate. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland in particular to be hit by storm surge.

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/

[ZONE 51]

Drawing attention to the storm set to hit the far north late wednesday 30th nov into thursday, looking like potentially damaging gusts.

il be back later with some info.

Edited November 30, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Here is a gale/severe gale chart i have created.

Period covers wednesday(today) into thursday.

Gales and Severe Gales developing during this period, especially over far North that is likely to feel the full effects of this storm, many areas getting brushed by very windy conditions.

[ZONE 51]

The 60-80mph zone in the far North i have indicated on the map these areas could exceed the 80mph, what i have done is the expected general gusts, but the risk is there for more potent gusts!

[Liam J]

Here is a gale/severe gale chart i have created.

Period covers wednesday(today) into thursday.

Gales and Severe Gales developing during this period, especially over far North that is likely to feel the full effects of this storm, many areas getting brushed by very windy conditions.

Mean speeds through the Irish Sea are predicted to be 50-55mph+ with storm force 10 mentioned on the inshore waters forecast for later, so I would add another 20mph+ or so on for max gusts, nice warning map however.

Another very windy evening coming up later, the winds look likely to exceed those of yesterday making for nasty and potentially dangerous conditions.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[Coast]

Looks to be a bit quieter this morning until some more wind and rain pours into Scotland and Ireland later:

[Coast]

Report (pictures in link below) of the Manchester area events yesterday:

High winds caused damage and left one person in hospital as storms blew across Greater Manchester this afternoon. A woman was injured when high winds caused chaos in Heaton Moor, Stockport. A chimney was blown off a roof and tables and chairs were upturned in what witnesses have described as 'a tornado' or a 'mini-hurricane'. The 84-year-old woman was taken to Stepping Hill Hospital with cuts and bruises after being hit with debris.

The high winds struck on Heaton Moor Road on Tuesday afternoon, sending stone and bricks crashing from James Yates hairdressers crashing to the ground. Canopies were blown off other shops, smashing two windows and furniture from a cafe blown down the street. Firefighters were called to the scene and cordoned off the block of shops affected. One crew used an aerial platform to make the remains of the chimney safe.

Phil Jones, from Unwin's greengrocers, one of the shops cordoned off, said: "It came out of the blue it was like a mini-hurricane, all of a sudden the sky turned black. "There was bricks and debris outside and I looked out of the window and there were tables and chairs flying down the road." Several trees in Thornfield Park were also destroyed in the storm. The weather caused the cancellation of tonight's Christmas lights event in Heaton Mersey Park.

Fallen trees forced the closure of the A34 West Road Congleton, both ways between A54 Holmes Chapel Road and A537 Chelford Road, and the A535 Twemloe Green, both ways between Forty Acre Lane and Twemlow Lane. A trail of devastation was left in Hyde after a 'mini-tornado' tore off fence panels, bricks and chimneys - even lifting a car. Eyewitness said wind ripped through homes on Redgate, Lanegate and Knott Lane at around 2.30pm this afternoon. Reports suggest one home had its gable end badly damaged and another house was missing large sections of its roof. Dad-of-five Alan Pickford, 47, of Redgate, Hyde, said: "The damage is unbelievable, I have never seen anything like it before. It's the sort of thing you see on TV. "We were sat here and pieces of debris and fence panels came flying past. I even saw a car get picked up and moved."

Margaret Hogg, landlady of the Apethorn on Knott Lane, added: "It was a mini-tornado. It's horrendous - you can't get into our car park because trees are everywhere." New Charter Housing Trust said up to 15 homes had been affected but there were no injuries and no-one had to be taken into temporary accommodation. Workers from the trust were still on the scene tonight making properties safe. Emma Marsh, director of communities at New Charter Housing Trust Group, said: "We've been made aware of damage to chimneys at Redgate in Hyde as a result of the bad weather. "There's been no reports of injuries and staff were on site immediately to support affected residents and make properties safe." The fire service and police said they had not received any calls for the Hyde area.

http://menmedia.co.u...n-moor-and-hyde

[Isolated Frost]

Despite some sleet and snow nearby at around 250m upwards, it was rain and hail before turning clear overnight... lots of prospects for the next week though!

[knightrider]

Looking at those latest predictions for Sunday night into Monday if those diagrams have got the predicted path correct then the south of England is on for a battering!

[Isolated Frost]

This shortwave moving in on Sunday could potentially be very snowy.

A lot of precipitation to the west of the low, and with cool uppers, we could be seeing mass blizzards above 400/500m in the pennines and lakes, all depends on how the shortwave reacts with the jet... 6z rolling out now, positioning is vital again.

[Liam J]

I think we have potential for gusts of 70-75mph around exposed Irish sea coastal areas later this evening with an outside chance of 80mph, the strongest winds will be ahead of and accompany the cold front during it's passage. Mean speeds are progged to be higher than they were with yesterdays system through the Irish Sea.

Currently have quite clear skies and some weak sunshine making an appearance with a temp of 8.1c, but the wind is picking up all the time.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[Coast]

I'm afraid I'm only seeing snow further up the country at this early stage:

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Mon 05 Dec at 0am GMT

[Robbie Garrett]

I emailed the MetOffice regarding their thoughts,

The latest charts are showing an increased probability of snow, both on hills and possible low ground to the north, but it is all very transitory, perhaps 1 to 3 days in length before it turns milder again before we get another cold blast. There is certainly no sign of anything of an easterly. However, the winter has only started, so we will see.

[Staffordshire]

Cold air moving in after the front so any potential snow will start as rain, I feel we may have to wait till later on Monday then possibly Wednesday for snow to lower grounds (still not sea level).

[legritter]

regards ,sun mon event ,as i said the other day ,SOMEWHERE IN NW EUROPE IS IN FOR A PASTING ,GO CAREFULL WHAT YOU WISH FOR .the forecasters will keep this one close to their desk ,untill i think much closer the time . the low could very easily develope further south and take its time developing ,so we miss the worse ,or the opposit e could happen . thurs night charts could be interesting ,regards

[Liam J]

The winds are increasing all the time now, gusting around 40mph and becoming more noticeable around the house, still fairly bright ATM.

Pressure 1011hpa and falling.

[knightrider]

Now as much as I luv strong winds and stormy weather even I'm kind of hoping that this chart dosn't become a reality, we'd see some kind of natural disaster if this is anything to go by. Those isorbars are tightly enough squeezed to produce gusts in access of 90mph pretty much anywhere south of Scotland

[knightrider]

regards ,sun mon event ,as i said the other day ,SOMEWHERE IN NW EUROPE IS IN FOR A PASTING ,GO CAREFULL WHAT YOU WISH FOR .the forecasters will keep this one close to their desk ,untill i think much closer the time . the low could very easily develope further south and take its time developing ,so we miss the worse ,or the opposit e could happen . thurs night charts could be interesting ,regards

Yeah I agree with you there the charts over the next 48 hours as we get closer to the time are going to be interesting to see how it updates, it's too early to speculate about how intense or not this is going to be it could be a bomb or it could end up just being abit breezy who knows!

[Liam J]

The Meto must think the models are over doing the wind speeds over the north Irish Sea later today, with no mention of this on the updated warnings, but then again it wouldn't be the first time they have underestimated severe weather potential.

Guidance shows severe gales to storm force 10 wind speeds this evening and would impact adjacent coastal areas.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[knocker]

The Meto must think the models are over doing the wind speeds over the north Irish Sea later today, with no mention of this on the updated warnings, but then again it wouldn't be the first time they have underestimated severe weather potential.

Guidance shows severe gales to storm force 10 wind speeds this evening and would impact adjacent coastal areas.

Wouldn't be the first time they have got it right either.

[knightrider]

It's been a year of weather extremes so far starting with the big freeze, then a warmer then average spring followed by a typically dissapointing summer holiday period through August, then we had the remarkably warm spell around late September / early October followed by a very mild November so it wouldn't surprise me if we see some extreme weather before the year is out I have a feeling December in general is shaping up to be a very unsettled month of weather whilst not particularly cold for most I can see there being quite a few deep atlantic deppressions or storms rolling in I think wet and often windy or very windy is the theme for the 1st half of this winter perhaps followed by a colder period sometime in the new year!

[wimblettben]

I have a feeling that the low for Sunday into Monday will either be downgraded or moved further North on later runs.

Apart from GFS there doesn't seem to be as much support for this on any of the other models.

[knightrider]

I have a feeling that the low for Sunday into Monday will either be downgraded or moved further North on later runs.

Apart from GFS there doesn't seem to be as much support for this on any of the other models.

Isn't GFS generally considered the most reliable though?

[wimblettben]

Isn't GFS generally considered the most reliable though?

GFS tends to be the one model that usually over does the strength of lows at a distant timeframe.