Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

[Cheese Rice]

More chance of snow on the upslopes of the pennines, infact I would reckon there will be a lot of snow next week for central and northern britain above 800 feet but down to sea level across north and northeast scotland where the arctic air is strongest.

I'll take your word for it. Despite living at a paltry 700 feet I'm a few minutes drive from 1000 feet and hope to see some lying snow- even though I don't expect it.

Actually the Irish Sea is very much on par with the North Sea in terms of convection. Similar to the Easterly too last year. Extreme coastal areas such as Scarborough saw rain, whilst just 5-10 miles inland saw tonnes of snow.

Luckily though Ian, I don't get the drastic temperature rises that surrounding areas do when we have a strong Westerly. Take it from someone who has lived on the edge of this sea for years.

Gonna make a thread about this to stop it going off topic.

Well if I find it marginal living at 700 feet ASL then I'm quite sure you will!

[A Winter's Tale]

This chart downgrades the chances of snow in the south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

[SnowObsessor90]

Think I'm just going to try and pretend I never saw the last few posts.

[UV-RAY]

Gibby's summary is spot on as always going by tonights output. However this is an ever evolving pattern which the models are struggling with, expect more twist and turns before next Monday.

[Backtrack]

I'll take your word for it. Despite living at a paltry 700 feet I'm a few minutes drive from 1000 feet and hope to see some lying snow- even though I don't expect it.

Well if I find it marginal living at 700 feet ASL then I'm quite sure you will!

It's going to be marginal away from Scotland, but I really wouldn't hope to see any snow in Leeds! Despite the strong flow the winds will be WNW, I'd of thought they would struggle to make it over the Pennines, they usually die 20-30 miles inland..

[A Winter's Tale]

Think I'm just going to try and pretend I never saw the last few posts.

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&run=10

Have another look - IF [FI] you Dare!

[J10]

The odd bit of wintry precipitation (sleet and wet snow) cannot be completely ruled out in the south away from windward coast, more especially Monday morning. But with each day seeing 850HPA temps rising,

Any lying snow will be restricted to mountain tops.

During the daytime, I agree with others, any wintriness will be restricted to hail for most in southern areas.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&run=10

Have another look - IF [FI] you Dare!

looks like cfs has cold arriving on xmas day, long way off, but never know, cold last week of dec, mildish around 3-7 Jan then cold from 13th

[Backtrack]

Always see snow from North Westerly flows, theres a gap in-between the pennines which allows showers to pass right over my house (lol) then die once a few cm's have been deposited. Its great!

Lol! Lucky you!

Does seem to be more of Westerly element to the flow though mate.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I know it's exciting, it's nearly December and it might snow, but this is the model thread, and every post should be about the models. Except this one.

[January Snowstorm]

-20 dp's for Iceland.

One wonders are the seas around iceland close to freezing over!

[mountain shadow]

It's not unusual for an ice bridge to form between Iceland and Greenland I believe.

The pub run firming up on the possible snowy weather arriving through sunday night into Monday for north western areas. Also driven on by gale force north westerlies with possible blizzards across higher ground.

[Geordiesnow]

Upper air temps are around -7 to -8 across Scotland on Monday, surely that is enough for snowfall for inland areas? Whether the shower activity will reach far inland we have to see but if the models don't downgrade the cold, I think places like Glasgow and perhaps Edinburgh could see there first snowfalls of the season.

Still too far out to nail the detail yet but the rule is that the further North-West you are, the more likelyhood you will see snowfall if albeit accumulations at lowel levels look very slim.

Will we see any amplified ridge on this run? It would appear the GFS is trying to edge towards that set up but not as procise as some ECM runs.

[damianslaw]

We are not going to see low lying snowfall in NW england (perhaps Cumbria). As has already been mentioned ST 's are far too high for any snowfall at the very least 20 miles inland in low lying areas. Onshore breeze is likely to hamper efforts, so even though 850s will generally be around -5 you wont see much in the way of wintry weather unless you live inland and most importantly on high ground.

I personally expect to see some snow if we see enough convection.

Bit too early to be discussin where and how much snow may fall come late Sunday into Monday. One thing the models can't pick up on at this range are trough features. In a very unstable flow with deep convection as we saw last Nov over the N Sea - trough features can spring up out of nowhere - such a feature if it occured overnight could deliver a surprise snowfall for quite low levels. Granted given the projected uppers and the flow from the NW - high ground above about 200m in N England has a much better chance of seeing some snow. The Lake District is in the firing line over the next week - could be some severe drifting of snow by this time next week if the charts verify as being shown.

There is a good level of consistency between the models in the reliable timeframe. The BBC suggests some shallow low feature - trough/frontal feature will penetrate southern and central districts on Sunday bringing heavy rain - however this isn't shown on the FAX as yet, will be interesting to see whether tonights update shows such a feature.

Next week - all models continue to show a predominantly unsettled and chilly theme until the end of the week with a potential renewed cold NW blast which if anything would pull down colder uppers than being projected for Monday. Certainly lots to keep an eye on and the longer term view is still for heights build over the atlantic before mid month advecting our way.. a quiet settled cold frosty mid month is something we have seen on many an occasion in recent decembers.

[SuttonStorm]

French and Swiss Alps getting a pounding from this run, and (I think) the Canadian & US troughs look like they will link hands and do a merry dance :-)

SS

[Matty M]

Nice going

Greeny getting more possible.

[January Snowstorm]

Quite a wintry 18z this evening.

Indeed it's looking serious now for Scotland!!

If the models continue in this vain just about all lrf's will have called December completely wrong

[Matty M]

As the hailstones hit my window the 18z is a goer!!!!!!!

Get the ramp.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interestingly, although the initial polar maritime incursion for Sunday-Tuesday may have been toned down a touch, the length of the polar maritime/cold zonality "window of opportunity" has been widened considerably on the latest runs, with only ECMWF placing us in a less cold airstream by T+168- and even that is of polar maritime origin with some colder potential afterwards.

I remain wary of the possibility of secondary depressions forming at short notice but at present it is looking quite good for snow lovers in Scotland, Northern Ireland and over high ground in the Midlands and north of England, provided that you are satisfied just to see some snow showers rather than requiring anything substantial on the ground (as I believe this is unlikely except on northern hills). It also looks good across most central, northern and western parts for convection lovers, with sunshine and showers and a high incidence of hail usually the dominant weather type in this kind of north-westerly regime.

There is uncertainty over the frontal system on Sunday- will it just skirt across the south or will it affect most of England and Wales? Both seem equally likely at present.

[Geordiesnow]

Yeah, the later bit of the run does show try an attempted ridge which leans more towards the ECM runs in that respect, the detail for us though is irrelevant whatever it shows and from past experience, having trends towards something later down the line is always a good thing for those who may seek cold and snow.

Anyways, don't think many can complain about this run in general, most people would bit there hands off for charts like these a couple of weeks ago.

[Matty M]

No doubt GFS will deflate our Greenland friend but there is a continuing trend towards an increase in WAA in the right areas and a better exit of that low from Canada, all we want is for it to scoot up the west side of Greenland and pump the High up.

[January Snowstorm]

Is it actually possible to get a third Winter with height rises dominant over Greenland

Omg, the 18z is close to being outstanding

[Matty M]

Is it actually possible to get a third Winter with height rises dominant over Greenland

Omg, the 18z is close to being outstanding

I dont think the High is actually real over Greeny, look at the 850hpas

[January Snowstorm]

Matty surely if Greenland gets excessively cold it will support a proper Greenland high developing.

Also if iceland is bitter that will hopefully help us irish get a decent Northwesterly down the line

[Matty M]

Matty surely if Greenland gets excessively cold it will support a proper Greenland high developing.

Also if iceland is bitter that will hopefully help us irish get a decent Northwesterly down the line

You need to see lots of warm 850hpas up the west side of Greenland.

Like last year