Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

[Weather-history]

A frightening ECM 240hr chart and not implausible

[Cal]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif 985mb to this below in 24hrs? Hmm...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 930mb!!! :help:

[AWD]

FI and everything, but the ECM 0z throws up one mega powerful depression at T+240!

Otherwise it's how you are! Nothing particularly cold and nothing all too mild! Around average, somedays slightly below, some slightly above!

Should be plenty of wind and rain about for all in the next week or 2 though, as usual, the more so the more NW you are!

[KTtom]

ECM is having a laugh...I hope! If not, this storm in 10 days will break all records and probably deposit the UK somewhere in central Europe!

Edited December 8, 2011 by KTtom

[wimblettben]

ECM is having a laugh...I hope! If not, this storm in 10 days will break all records and probably deposit the UK somewhere in central Europe!

I would say that it most likely is probably having a laugh as it did this last time there was a storm forecast for much more of the UK and as it got nearer the time frame it soon dissapeared.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

This mornings models show perfectly why we have pretty much no chance of any decent cold blocking posibly this side of the new year with the cold stratosphere feeding depression after depression across the Atlantic..

We really deperately need to see some sort of warming oop north because its only a matter of time until see see heights over europe pushing the jet north as oppoosed to directly into the UK!!

On a serious note i hope everybody esp up north takes care over the next 7 to 10 days there is really some horrid weather on the way.

[weather_it_will]

This mornings models show perfectly why we have pretty much no chance of any decent cold blocking posibly this side of the new year

Christmas day on the beach the way things are looking in FI on the 00Z GFS.

Outlook is mild and windy for the south. When I say mild translates to zonal, not cold enough for snow, and winds in wrong direction.

Edited December 8, 2011 by xanadu

[shedhead]

If the ECM 240hr verifies, it'll make todays storm look like a localised afternoon seabreeze...

[Weather-history]

That ECM 240hr is not implausible, the UK has been hit by sub 930mb lows in the past, twice in the 1880s within 3 years of each other so you could argue we are due for a low as exceptional as that or at least sub 940mb

[jonnybradley]

Another thing - these lows aren't being shunted north. They are being shunted east. And they're wrapping round the same PV roundabout. The latitude doesn't change much (in the greater scheme of things). We're looking at things too simplistically when we're talking about lows going north or south. I know the word 'meridional' gets bandied about here and I'd say that in this kind of flow it is much more important than the latitudinal terms being used. A little north and east is what we need to be looking at. Not south and east, for the down-the-line prospects.

kumquat, I am not going to argue with you but would I be right in saying that these lows really only need to move a few hundred miles north or south to effect what happens with the Azores high.

You say we need it, but this is subjective. Yes in the long but the Pyrenees needs snow at high levels and there best shot now is for one of these lows to move slightly south???

[nick sussex]

kumquat, I am not going to argue with you but would I be right in saying that these lows really only need to move a few hundred miles north or south to effect what happens with the Azores high.

You say we need it, but this is subjective. Yes in the long but the Pyrenees needs snow at high levels and there best shot now is for one of these lows to move slightly south???

For fear of turning this into the when will it snow in the Pyrenees thread! I don't quite understand kumquats point, I'd agree with you JB, if we put aside the worries about the strength of the wind then the further south and east low pressure tracks the more chance of at least getting the odd colder day into the UK, and also snow for European ski resorts.

If low pressure tracks further to the north and east this would be in connection with the Azores high moving ne into Europe, once in that pattern it's very difficult to get out of.

Also if you keep the Azores high centred further west then its easier to benefit if the upstream pattern amplifies, one amplified eastern USA trough and then its a quick step to at least a northerly toppler.

Edited December 8, 2011 by nick sussex

[rich1]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

Doesnt quite happen on this run but if we are to look for a way out of this present atlantic/cool zonal period it may be more likely to happen from the east rather than Greenland

have been a few rogue ensembles on recent GFS outputs that have flirted with the idea, but only really flirted. Nothing concrete as of yet. Maybe something might turn up though wouldnt be betting my 50p life savings on it at the moment

at present it does seem that the further north you are, the more interesting the weather may be in the next week to 10 days, though the potential for some disturbed weather everywhere is very much in evidence

[bluearmy]

A very progressive outlook this morning with some potentially damaging winds in Scotland particularly. Longer term the forcing looks like leading to increasing heights to the South, with the possibility of a SW-NE tilted jet perhaps giving a very mild Xmas to New Year period.

your assesment would be the form horse ian. naefs does continue to build the 'old 'Berne' high anomoly' as we reach xmas. however, the models were predicting the same for next week and we dont see it as verficiation approaches.

[Zakos]

Gfs FI shows a Bartlett forming, and within 3 days becomes a greenland high just before christmas. It's not often you see that on the gfs!

[rich1]

http://www.meteociel...&ech=384&mode=0

may eke out a white xmas for some areas, preceded by a week of mediocrity if this verified. But if we did happen to get the end result, it may be worthwhile

on the whole though, I hope we get better output than this. Will look at the ensembles to see where this one sits, but given the mobility, going to have to expect some crap runs for cold weather here and there

Edited December 8, 2011 by rich1

[Jimmyh]

guys if this super storm as we could call it was to verify and yes i know it is in FI but that would surely be a batten down the hatches job. I could not even begin to imagine the wind speeds down to 932mb!!!! it will be interesting watching over the next 3 days to see if this gets to reliable time frame

[legritter]

ECM certainly not implausible as mr data stated .could very well be showing us something that could develope in a shorter time ie ,7/8 days .if youre fix is mega lows and youre hoping to see a big one ,you will certainly be on a high today ,but i hope you dont come crashing down along with all those trees today . i still think many in the west and even centrall areas could see some white stuff in next 48hrs or so as todays storm was born ,developed from some pretty potent elements , theres also the possibillity that ecm as caught gfs habit of dartboards ,but often i think in our hobby ,theres NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE , but this statement in life you could say Who started the fire .hopefully a new computer after christmas ,mine is rubbish ,i hope to do some blogs iv nearly 400 society magazines and doz of journals , anyone in storm zone stay safe ,re ,legritter

[Tim Bland]

A very progressive outlook this morning with some potentially damaging winds in Scotland particularly. Longer term the forcing looks like leading to increasing heights to the South, with the possibility of a SW-NE tilted jet perhaps giving a very mild Xmas to New Year period.

Yes Ian a very mild Chrismas lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3843.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3844.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

If this keeps showing I'll be going down the bookies with my Chrismas paycheck!

[rich1]

Yes Ian a very mild Chrismas lol

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3843.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3844.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

If this keeps showing I'll be going down the bookies with my Chrismas paycheck!

Ian could end up being right but if anything though its just for fun at that range, at least it shows that you can never write something like that off at this range as a total impossibility, at least its there as a modelled option even if it may go away on the next run, it could return later. Wonder though if this run could be both a mild and a cold outlier at the same time for different stages. Hopefully just the former but it would be a bit of a bi-polar episode in some ways from the GFS

[rich1]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

run up to Xmas eve not supported yet alas, which is no major shock but all in good time. Lots to get through

850's on parts of this run not as mild as I expected in all honesty, though not a huge amount to write home about on those, I will continue to hope

[R.P. McMurphy]

Just got this Alert:

The Met Office has issued a red alert weather warning after forecasting what it is describing as the country's most severe storm in decades with the Central region expected to be hit by devastating hurricane-force winds gusting up to 100mph on Thursday. The latest update from the Met Office has led to a recommendation from the Scottish Government that all schools and colleges on the west coast should remain closed, whilst pupils in the east of the country should travel home at lunchtime. Police are also expected to take the unprecedented step of advising motorists across the country to stay at home if possible and avoid using the roads altogether when the storm is at its height. An emergency meeting of the Scottish Cabinet took place late on Wednesday night and the Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said afterwards; “Having considered the updated information received from the Met Office tonight, the police have advised that there is a probability that they will change their travel advice in the coming hours from warning about a high risk of disruption to a position where they will advise drivers to avoid travelling on the roads in the affected areas. The warnings are of the highest level of seriousness and we are clear that safety has to be the paramount issue.†Police are warning that travel conditions on Thursday will be “extremely poor†with “significant delays†and a “severe impact†on the evening rush hour. All main bridges, including the Forth Road Bridge, are likely to be closed whilst trees and vehicles are at a high risk of being blown over. The Met Office’s red alert level severe weather warning covers Lothian and the Borders, Strathclyde, Central, Fife, Tayside and all of south-west Scotland. Airports, rail services, public transport and roads will all be severely disrupted during the storm. Travellers are advised to closely monitor the situation using social media, TV and local radio updates.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I still can't see this height rises to the south taking over yet but eventually will occur but IMO not until week approaching New Year, and that will be the shift IMO to the next pattern change for January. For now the overall pattern remains with a shot to colder air appearing [no freeze or days and weeks of lying lowland snow].

The ECM 240 storm, well my eyes are drawn much nearer timescale to around 15th to the southerly tracking LP? I think this is possible and will be the start of the coldest/coolest period of the month. I think a set up showing main LP just to our N with secondary southerly tracking LP is possible. A strong N to NNW flow in general to follow leading to generally colder conditions but leading to the superstorm? One to monitor but that is really extreme, but cold zoneality still to dominate and this month is progressing interestingly.

Anyone from the 'danger' zone on here, how bad is it getting?

BFTP

Edited December 8, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tinybill]

yes i know its f1 could santa be bring cold weather for xmas day!!

[Ruzzi]

Another outstandingly powerful storm in FI for the middle of next week.

[Andy Bown]

Correct me if I am wrong, but today's storm LOW wasn't on the models at the 7-10 day time frame? It became modelled just 3 or 4 days ago?

If that is the case then those storm LOWs showing for next Thursday 15th and Sunday 18th are extremely unlikely to happen as modelled. What is likely though is another few such LOWs at a time frame to be decided.