The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[tom_f123]

Heavy sleet shower here about 30 minutes ago, most of the shower activity seems to be further south, across south wales, Bristol etc.

[andy_leics22]

I'm still baffled as to why there was talk in here last night of a potential to see snow showers today, the temp has risen to 6c now and it's only 11am, the models never looked like snow was possible for anywhere in the Midlands below about 200m. I'd even rule sleet out for my location if the temp stays at 6c through the day!

[Luke]

I'm hoping the showers over Ireland can now start to push across and hopefully by the time they arrive the temperature will have dropped.

[ISAAC]

I'm still baffled as to why there was talk in here last night of a potential to see snow showers today, the temp has risen to 6c now and it's only 11am, the models never looked like snow was possible for anywhere in the Midlands below about 200m. I'd even rule sleet out for my location if the temp stays at 6c through the day!

524 dam line 524 dam line 524 dam line!

[Arctic Hare]

Dry here, and mostly bright, though there are some "interestingly grey" clouds on the horizon from time to time. My guess last night was that there'd be at least sleet reports from the region today, so that's already come to pass. Also, for what it's worth, here's the current TAF for Birmingham Airport:

TAF EGBB 131103Z 1312/1412 23012KT 9999 FEW035

TEMPO 1312/1324 23015G25KT 8000 SHRA PROB40

TEMPO 1312/1322 23025G35KT 4000 SHRASN BKN014 PROB40

TEMPO 1407/1412 23015G25KT 4000 SHRA SHRASN

"SHRASN" means sleet showers. No mention of SHSN (snow showers) so those of us at lower elevations probably shouldn't get our hopes up too much. I must say I'm really surprised at Ben Rich's forecast as mentioned above -- a thin covering on the higher elevations wouldn't surprise me, but four inches? Wow... if that comes off, some of you (on the hills) are going to have an early Christmas present! :smilz38:

[chrisb1357]

Sorry to ask this but was is a 524 dam line. Are these shown on a chart

Chris

524 dam line 524 dam line 524 dam line!

[conor123]

Dry & sunny here as expected (this wind direction never delivers here), had an intense downpour last night though around 2:30am as the cooler weather moved back in.

[PolarWarsaw]

Anyone expecting much shower activity NOrth of Warwickshire today, is hopecasting. Winds seems to have changed the course of the showers slightly since last night. Expeecting a dry and crisp day with the outside chance of graupel/rain shower.

[Serendipity]

TBH even here in Warks the showers are skirting to our south - it keeps going very grey but nothing is falling, not even rain.

[andy_leics22]

524 dam line 524 dam line 524 dam line!

Having an ideal dam line doesn't mean snow though. The 850's at -3 aren't good for snow at lower levels and the ground temps around 5-6c isn't good for snow either. The current temp is 5.7c here with a dew of 1.0c so even if there was a shower... It wouldn't be snow.

[Polar Low]

Having an ideal dam line doesn't mean snow though. The 850's at -3 aren't good for snow at lower levels and the ground temps around 5-6c isn't good for snow either. The current temp is 5.7c here with a dew of 1.0c so even if there was a shower... It wouldn't be snow.

This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone here. Forecast is bang on right now, Midlands showers consisting of rain/hail, particularly from mid afternoon - with the chance off the odd wintry shower this evening. Overnight any showers moving into the West Mids may fall as snow to increasingly lower levels, but it won't be anything to get excited about.

We should just be looking ahead to Friday, it won't be wintry but it will provide us with the most interesting weather of the week.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Polar Low

[ISAAC]

Having an ideal dam line doesn't mean snow though. The 850's at -3 aren't good for snow at lower levels and the ground temps around 5-6c isn't good for snow either. The current temp is 5.7c here with a dew of 1.0c so even if there was a shower... It wouldn't be snow.

-4.5c 850 uppers here in stoke.

thickness is just as if not more important in these setups, ask JH. although i understand your concern anything below -5c can make snow marginal on lower ground.

remember early january 2010 set up, we had snow for a good 2 hours with uppers of 0 to -1c, 520 dam line.

in prolonged showers temperatures and dewpoints drop very quickly!

[andy_leics22]

-4.5c 850 uppers here in stoke.

thickness is just as if not more important in these setups, ask JH. although i understand your concern anything below -5c can make snow marginal on lower ground.

remember early january 2010 set up, we had snow for a good 2 hours with uppers of 0 to -1c, 520 dam line.

in prolonged showers temperatures and dewpoints drop very quickly!

True, I remember in 2007 or 2008 it snowed about 3 inches in Birmingham when the uppers were around -1! What bothers me the most is the temps being too high today, if they were around 3c it would be a lot better but hovering around the 6c mark and the dew being over 1c is almost the kiss of death for snowfall on low ground, unless you get a heavy shower which drops temps a couple of degrees then the chances are a bit better. Looking at the radar though the main pack of showers look like they will just skirt South of Birmingham and Leicester all day

[Costa Del Fal]

Fairly heavy sleet shower here earlier. Showers are doing their best to get going and making a good way inland but the only issue is when they begin to die out it does so very quickly.

Still, plenty of time left today, tomorrow and then Friday into the weekend may be interesting. 06z GFS takes the Low too far south though.

[kold weather]

Hmmm a VERY interesting Met Odffice update here:

There remains a risk of very strong winds and heavy rain moving eastwards across parts of England and Wales later on Thursday and through Friday.

In addition there is a risk of locally significant snowfall occurring, mainly on high ground towards the north and west of this warning area.

However there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of any severe weather though southern parts remain most prone.

I think this is worth watching because conditions may just fall on the right side of marginal for some in the S.Midlands. Of course that is providing the front even gets that far north which is looking far from certain as of this moment!

[PolarWarsaw]

Well the Beeb hardly mentioned snow just. Showed showers tonight and tommorow as rain, with Sleet over higher ground except for in the north of England & Scotland. Be interesting to see what midlands today say.

[Costa Del Fal]

Although marginal to an extent, tomorrow afternoon and evening looks pretty showery with perhaps prolonged showers thanks to a trough moving through. Conditions still look like they could give snow in some, especially those with some elevation.

[Eugene]

I hope im wrong but i see most of lowland midlands not seeing much of the white stuff at all this week, looks a cold and dry picture to me for us in the west midlands.

[PolarWarsaw]

Although marginal to an extent, tomorrow afternoon and evening looks pretty showery with perhaps prolonged showers thanks to a trough moving through. Conditions still look like they could give snow in some, especially those with some elevation.

Although marginal to an extent, tomorrow afternoon and evening looks pretty showery with perhaps prolonged showers thanks to a trough moving through. Conditions still look like they could give snow in some, especially those with some elevation.

The bain of my life during winter. That and a big power station just do nothing for me!

[Costa Del Fal]

The bain of my life during winter. That and a big power station just do nothing for me!

Well, the power station as you have mentioned before puts you at a disadvantage already. Perhaps a wintry mix above 100m tomorrow evening and wet snow above 200m im thinking.

[Michael Winston]

Well the Beeb hardly mentioned snow just. Showed showers tonight and tommorow as rain, with Sleet over higher ground except for in the north of England & Scotland. Be interesting to see what midlands today say.

They tend not to update too often - I'm not sure of the exact times. Can anyone help?

Regards,

Mike.

[The Wolf]

Looks to me like it's game over again! Showers are too far south and not potent enough.

[PolarWarsaw]

Well the midlands today forecast instantly gives me no hope. Words such as 'above 200m', 'hilltops', 'elevation', 'higher ground'. There was barely any graphics that showed anything but rain bar over the costswalds. Game over until Friday, by which time we'l probably get a damp squib and a slight breeze. Typical.

[Costa Del Fal]

Good grief, theres plenty of time for showers etc to make it over. Not game over at all.

All this pessimism is putting me off this thread now. I know it can be frustrating at times, but some have barely given it any time.

Think I will stick to posting elsewhere for now.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Blizzards

[PolarWarsaw]

Im not meaning to be so pessimistic, but its becoming a bit of an expected pattern in my part of the world for a lack of snow unless we're higher, or things are absolutely 100% perfect. Ie, sadly not in the next few days.