The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep SnowTornado, BBC Midlands Today giving it a good mention also mentioning several cm. I reckon Dudley will do very well out of this especially but will cause significant travel problems probably.

It looks like (If things come off as projected now) that a good covering will fall before Dawn with snow continuing into the morning rush hour this some tricky conditions.

In the meantime, although marginal, more organised showers should come through tonight which may fall as sleet or snow, particularly in the West Mids.

[Michael Winston]

The 528 dam line stays way to the south on the fax charts - looks promising!

Regards,

Mike.

[andy_leics22]

Outbreaks of heavy rain will turn readily to snow during the early hours of Friday. The snow is likely to accumulate over time with a risk of up to 10 cm over higher ground. At low levels sleet is more likely but even here some lying snow cannot be ruled out.

The public should be aware that this could lead to travel disruption on Friday morning.

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Doesnt look overly exciting as not many of us live on a hill, however fairly typical wording from the metoffice at this stage. If come tomorrow night the area to be effected is certain and the conditions definately right for snow then i imagine that would change although they may just leave at that until or if flash warnings are required

Maybe we should work together and build ourselves a little house on the top of Croft hill in Croft That is only about 4 miles from me and probably about 8 miles from you.

"Croft Hill is an isolated cone of rock, a mere 128m (134ft) high, almost at the centre of England and it’s position in the Soar River’s flood plane makes it a local landmark."

That extra 60m could make all the difference.

Edited December 14, 2011 by andy_leics22

[PolarWarsaw]

Just hoping its not properly marginal so I can see some decent accumulating snow. At only 80M'S ASL its not looking to brillant, but here's hoping. The beeb graphics looked amazing!

[MKN]

Having looked at all the models ive come to the conclusion friday morning the m69 will look something like this.

Maybe we should work together and build ourselves a little house on the top of Croft hill in Croft That is only about 4 miles from me and probably about 8 miles from you.

"Croft Hill is an isolated cone of rock, a mere 128m (134ft) high, almost at the centre of England and it’s position in the Soar River’s flood plane makes it a local landmark."

That extra 60m could make all the difference.

According to a probably rubbish altitude app on my phone i am at 103.04 meters at home as it is. Ive had it on last few days and its gone between 97 and 107.31 around hinckley and burbage. If its correct not sure the extra 25meters is worth the 8miles might just find a tall building to make the difference

[Costa Del Fal]

Winds still looking excellent for a very good amount of time on Friday and Saturday for the Cheshire Gap also. Whilst its a temperamental little thing and needs quite specific conditions, regardless of where the Low goes (to an extent!) things look good for this.

[Michael Winston]

Who'd have thought this would be the case ten days ago?

Regards,

Mike.

[Luke]

Going by the current models, when would this be expected, Thursday night?

[smethwickgg102]

Going by the current models, when would this be expected, Thursday night?

According to the beeb, late Thursday into Friday, but as with most of these types of event, who knows :smilz38:

[MKN]

Thursday night looks most likely to start as rain roughly around 9pm, this is likely to remain the case generally until somewer between midnight and 3am, after this the chances of snow falling increase and is most likely between 3-9am. Amounts of course are to hard to say given the fact there is still the possibility for some that it could start as snow earlier or of course later than this. And the effect of snow falling on to wet ground will be hard to predict. Simply put, we need the low to form and place itself roughly in the perfect place to allow the precip and cooler air to be in the right place, right now things are looking good but the tendencies to shift these kind of low systems will make big differences to people on here even if its now only 50miles north or south. A case of reading the reports on here on friday night to see whats falling. Like Blizzards has said once the low pulls away and the main event if it turns out to be an event of any note will be to look for showers from the northwest as the conditions look favourable for those that do well from the cheshire gap showers that often form between 9pm friday and 6am saturday.

[kold weather]

Who'd have thought this would be the case ten days ago?

Regards,

Mike.

I remember a few people have been hinting that something like this was possible, esp TWS and Mr.Data, this is what cold zonality is all about!

Still your point stands, snow wasn't really even thought about even 24hrs ago other than a possible chance of some back-edge stuff...it shows how difficult it must have been 20-30 years ago to forecast such events!!

[Michael Winston]

I remember a few people have been hinting that something like this was possible, esp TWS and Mr.Data, this is what cold zonality is all about!

Still your point stands, snow wasn't really even thought about even 24hrs ago other than a possible chance of some back-edge stuff...it shows how difficult it must have been 20-30 years ago to forecast such events!!

Indeed - it's a job I wouldn't fancy,even today.

Kind regards,

Mike

Edited December 14, 2011 by Michael Winston

[Arnie Pie]

Just on today viewing Sat 24, there seems to be a clash of air flows above the area between the stuff coming in from the west and some lighter clouds from the NW

Is this a trough or a front and could it cause some convection??

Edited December 14, 2011 by Arnie Pie

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 12Z rolling out now. Only the Precip Accumulation charts are updated to the new one from the first moment, the rest update progressively until about 4:30pm. The NAE 12z looks to shift things a little further North but if the cold air is in place, then some very heavy snowfall possible. It probably wont be as much as this but the NAE gives about 25-30mm of Precip tomorrow night!

[andy_leics22]

Eyes down for the 12z peepers... If it goes belly up now with only just over 24 hours to go till the event.. The cat gets it.. *grabs neighbours cute cat and threatens to shoot it*

[Nick L]

I'm hoping for a nice welcome home present on Friday morning

[MKN]

Enjoy :smilz38:

[kold weather]

Well looking at the 12z NAE it broadly goes for a similar set-up as the 06z had with heavy snow developing in the early morning hours.

[Adzyy]

That Midlands today forecast looked very yummy!

[MKN]

What did the midlands today say then? sweets all round?

[Cheshire Freeze]

NAE 12Z rolling out now. Only the Precip Accumulation charts are updated to the new one from the first moment, the rest update progressively until about 4:30pm. The NAE 12z looks to shift things a little further North but if the cold air is in place, then some very heavy snowfall possible. It probably wont be as much as this but the NAE gives about 25-30mm of Precip tomorrow night!

Yes NAE appears to push the front north by 50 miles or so, bringing the potential for snow into the central/north Midlands and southern parts of northern England. Can only see the precipitation accumulation at the minute though.

This is for 6am Friday

Edited December 14, 2011 by CreweCold

[Costa Del Fal]

Enjoy :smilz38:

Seems quite confident that significant disruption is possible!

[Adzyy]

What did the midlands today say then? sweets all round?

Great big dollop of snow covering the midlands. Of course, subject to change. Looking yummy though!

[Drew]

Currently 0.7C and it's snowing. Wet snow but snowing none the less.

[Barbmac]

Doesnt look overly exciting as not many of us live on a hill, however fairly typical wording from the metoffice at this stage. If come tomorrow night the area to be effected is certain and the conditions definately right for snow then i imagine that would change although they may just leave at that until or if flash warnings are required

I do! The Malverns, and even this morning there has been the odd flake of snow.