Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[JP1972]

Thank you Nick.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

Seems the old GEM has changed to CMC now Nick or i assume so--the Canadian Model.

Looking at the 5 day Stats on the 00z run it`s performing a little better than GFS at present--if I am reading this correctly.

http://www.emc.ncep....0_G2NHX_00Z.png

Here the 12z stats for 5days.

http://www.emc.ncep....0_G2NHX_12Z.png

Notice on both ECM is performing best at present.

Did you look at the JMA thats beating the GFS 12hrs run on days 6 and 8, although for some reason it has less days input. I might start the new ratings agency, I've put the GFS on a negative watch and it will soon be downgraded to A-, the ECM keeps its AAA rating for the timebeing!

Edited December 15, 2011 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

Did you look at the JMA thats beating the GFS 12hrs run on days 6 and 8, although for some reason it has less days input. I might start the new ratings agency, I've put the GFS on a negative watch and it will soon be downgraded to A-, the ECM keeps its AAA rating for the timebeing!

No i didn`t notice the JMA pushing for stardom-I only viewed the day 5 stats.Interesting stuff.

I suppose we fall into the trap of disregarding the "lesser"models out of habit but the CMC and now the JMA are certainly worth consideration-based on these latest stats.

The GFS had better pull it`s socks up and yes the ECM looking the better model-not for the first time.

[Met4Cast]

Latest models have shifted tonights/tomorrows system further East, increasing the snowfall risk across SE Midlands, London and SE England

[nick sussex]

Interestingly the UKMO stick to their own raw output in the fax charts:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

The UKMO output at 144hrs was by far the best in terms of having a chance to ridge the high far enough north to down the line produce some surface cold.

Given the rest of tonights output it seems out on its own, new trend or false dawn?

[Frosty.]

Sorry to be dense here, but just a simpletons question! BOM, JMA, GEM and such lesser models. Who produces them and why are they produced if they are so unreliable? When I say 'unreliable' I'm obviously referring to the fact that everyone refers to them as 'lesser models' and almsot disregards them before the output is finished. Do they serve any purpose? Thanks.

All the models have been unreliable this week, very poor.. who would have thought that such a mega storm with all the early warnings would completely miss the uk, no gales or storm force winds for the uk and then we get the surprise snow which was never in the script at the start of this week.

[lorenzo]

Interestingly the UKMO stick to their own raw output in the fax charts:

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

The UKMO output at 144hrs was by far the best in terms of having a chance to ridge the high far enough north to down the line produce some surface cold.

Given the rest of tonights output it seems out on its own, new trend or false dawn?

Perhaps the eyes are elsewhere and going with the model was a 'timely' option..

All the models have been unreliable this week, very poor.. .

You could flip the coin and argue that to track such a feature from way out shows just how good the models are??

[nick sussex]

The only good thing to say about the GFS 18hrs run is that it will soon be over!

Talk about a flat jet and ugly PV to the north!

[Frosty.]

Perhaps the eyes are elsewhere and going with the model was a 'timely' option.. You could flip the coin and argue that to track such a feature from way out shows just how good the models are??

It's just my opinion, I don't think the models have done well enough this week in handling such a feature, it was supposed to be a bigger storm than the one which hit the uk last thursday but it's track has been yoying all over the place until yesterday evening when the experts could finally pin it down to zipping along the channel.

[January Snowstorm]

True Nick and worth pointing out the scandi high at 180hrs, or rather lack of one!!

I recall GP saying it would be a big feature in mid Jan.

Let's hope so because it aint there in late Dec

[chionomaniac]

True Nick and worth pointing out the scandi high at 180hrs, or rather lack of one!!

I recall GP saying it would be a big feature in mid Jan.

Let's hope so because it aint there in late Dec

Have you discovered time travel, JS?

[Hughsey]

Yet another change on the NAE in terms of snow risk!

http://www.weatheron...V=0&WMO==

looks great from IMBY perspective, still time to change though I guess.

[Geordiesnow]

All the models have been unreliable this week, very poor.. who would have thought that such a mega storm with all the early warnings would completely miss the uk, no gales or storm force winds for the uk and then we get the surprise snow which was never in the script at the start of this week.

You say that but have they been poor really? The trend has remained the same all week but all the technical stuff why the low did not develop as deep as first thought came into play. I remember the countryfile forecast said that alot of variables come into play for a deep low to form.

Out of the models for this event, the ECM has been the best as it was first to spot the trend whilst the UKMO has been the worse, it was more consistant in keeping the low fairly deep hence the forecasts keep menturning it where in the end, the worse of the winds will have missed us. GFS was more in between and had more mixed outputs regarding the low pressure system.

[Great Plum]

I'm glad there's still 10 days to go...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

[Paul White.]

You know I am just watching the sat animation and the storm does seem a little further north. Have a look http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html and as for the rainfall that looks further north also http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ What do people think? I know that posters have mentioned that the models have been woeful , but they did pick the storm out a week ago I know its 600 miles out for us but that's round about 1% of the Earth's circumference so the margin for error imo is pretty outstanding

Regards Paul

[Frosty.]

You say that but have they been poor really? The trend has remained the same all week but all the technical stuff why the low did not develop as deep as first thought came into play. I remember the countryfile forecast said that alot of variables come into play for a deep low to form.

Out of the models for this event, the ECM has been the best as it was first to spot the trend whilst the UKMO has been the worse, it was more consistant in keeping the low fairly deep hence the forecasts keep menturning it where in the end, the worse of the winds will have missed us. GFS was more in between and had more mixed outputs regarding the low pressure system.

I'm glad it did miss us because the way it was modelled at the start of the week it would have been twice as destructive as last week but i'm drawing a line under it now, lets look forward to a cold weekend. :smiliz34:

[Cloud 10]

It's just my opinion, I don't think the models have done well enough this week in handling such a feature, it was supposed to be a bigger storm than the one which hit the uk last thursday but it's track has been yoying all over the place until yesterday evening when the experts could finally pin it down to zipping along the channel.

If i remember correctly it was the ECM,(aka.the king of the models ) which dropped the idea of an intense low?

[Liam J]

If i remember correctly it was the ECM,(aka.the king of the models ) which dropped the idea of an intense low?

Yes it was the ECM which correctly dropped the depression first followed by the GFS, UKMO took rather longer to ditch the system and trailed behind some of the lesser models in this respect.

[Frosty.]

If i remember correctly it was the ECM,(aka.the king of the models ) which dropped the idea of an intense low?

I always thought the ecm was more reliable generally speaking, the gfs tends to overblow depressions way too much, anyway a cold weekend being modelled with a nw'ly flow, then calmer with sharp frosts and then slowly turning milder but possibly colder again by the end of next week.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[MP-R]

That is the ugliest model run I have seen in yonks! The GFS is the worst with the definition of a Bartlett setting up in FI. Fortunately though it is FI and it has been common for things to be shunted south nearer the time. Nevertheless, after a cold weekend with frost it looks like becoming milder soon into next week. Beyond that is rather uncertain.

[JP1972]

So what is the ECM showing both in the reliable timeframe and FI?

[Frosty.]

The only good thing to say about the GFS 18hrs run is that it will soon be over! Talk about a flat jet and ugly PV to the north!

not enough booze for the pub run tonight nick, so different to last night which was very amplified..as we are comparing 18z for 18z.

[Dave Kightley]

gfs 18z oh dear! hopefully its had a few to many tonight. ecm 12z 240 comes to some interest on the big day

[Frosty.]

So what is the ECM showing both in the reliable timeframe and FI?

cold then milder

[bluearmy]

if you live in much of western france, you would be forgiven for thinking that any chart which dropped the shortwave was wrong. current gusts around 70 - 90 mph. as ever, a mixture of what was on offer has proved to be right. the ecm was indeed the first model to drop the track to the south. the ukmo the least keen to drop the idea of a deepish depression. ecm and gfs dropped the depression completely on some of their runs. it arrived in the sw approaches as a depression. its deepening as it runs east. the track is further south. had it been further north, it would have deepened more dramatically. as ever, no model is completely right and none completely wrong. liking the T120 FAX - monday and tuesday both look chilly, especially monday.