Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[Norrance]

Just had a couple of unexpected really big freak gusts of wind here. Actually caused more damage in my garden than all of yesterdays and Decembers storms put together with my garden tool store blown over and broken glass everywhere. Already calming down again. University recorded a gust of 56mh at 1015 but it seemed higher than that here. Driving rain at the time has now eased off.Don't think there was any warning for this area?

Ads a footnote with yesterday the Taybridge has now recorded > 100mph winds on four occasions in the last 12 months. That must be a record.

[snowy owl]

More interesting charts over in the model thread and a huge artic high at 1060mb!! See Steve M's posts - only prob is the cold goes into North America!! lol

Will check out runs in the morning - time for a good book.

[Cheggers]

Wind and rain cranking up again. Really depressing now

[blitzen]

Well just viewed the 18z and it gave me goosebumps! If future runs continue to develop in this way, you can actually see how we could tap into serious cold. At one stage, a lobe of the polar vortex drops over us. I think the continuing development of the Aleutian ridge is playing a major part here. Jet drops further south too, later in the run. Things appear to be moving in the right direction for 2nd half of January. I may get to use that snowblower yet! I do hope I am not mis- reading! LS?

Well out in FI but appearing stronger in each run now.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Blitzen

[lynp]

Really think yesterdays storm under reported.In west end glasgow many roads closed and chimneys down. I saw many crushed cars yesterday. Tonight council vehicles trying to mop up vast areas of flooding.Unbelieveable and many people struggling without insurance for fences etc. Mad weather and unusually bad even for us.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well just viewd the 18z and it gave me goosebumps! If future runs continue to develop in this way, you can actually see how we could tap into serious cold. At one stage, a lobe of the polar vortex drops over us. I think the continuing development of the Aleutian ridge is playing a major part here. Jet drops further south too, later in the run. Things appear to be moving in the right direction for 2nd half of January. I may get to use that snowblower yet! I do hope I am not mis- reading! LS?

No, you're pretty much spot on in that analysis. The Aleutian high development is key, as is amplification 'downstream' of the jet, We obviously can't take individual runs as gospel but the trend is for major disruption to the polar vortex and heights generally to rise to the north. How exactly that plays out for us is the million dollar question at the moment.

[blitzen]

Is this an Aleutian ridge or an east Pacific ridge also present in January 1984?

[lorenzo]

Also, regarding the map, it would be great if most members could have a link to their profile page

And with yesterday's storm and the distruption it brings - perhaps we could have markers for the latest on Bridges, Railway Stations and our Ferry Services.

Great ideas AWT, also was thinking of SEPA links... will look into it now am off work for a a few days !

Wind and rain cranking up again. Really depressing now

Worst type of weather for me today too, grim, very cold but not with the winter edge, in the freezing rain vicinity.

Well just viewd the 18z and it gave me goosebumps...

Great post Blitzen, every right to be encouraged, signs are very strong now for that ridge development, this morning the NPac ridge was modelled within FI, also the Aleutian took a baby step to the same place. Look at the NAEFS Spread chart on Meteociel, the one with the number of ensembles / perturbations in conclusion or at difference this is a good check of the NH Pattern.

Some stunning runs showing massive arctic heights.. ECM and GFS will flip, the second wave of warming I think now is pending.. great posts today discussing the moves from zonal to meridional - that for me is the point of interest in the models, this change from a flat jetstream smashing the UK to an amplified one is the next step in the process.

[Ruzzi]

We had 8 lying snow days in december with a maximum depth of 14cm.

On another note, where the hell did that come from tonight?!! The wind and especially the rain tonight have been scary at times!! I work in Morrisons and at around 8pm, part of the ceiling gave way and the water came pouring in, within seconds it was ankle deep at the front of the shop. I also found my car surrounded by about about 6 inches of water in the carpark when I finished at 9PM.

Bring back the safety of the heavy snow!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Is this an Aleutian ridge or an east Pacific ridge also present in January 1984?

It is, though in that instance the cold spell was caused by a particularly intense polar vortex which was displaced off the pole by that high i.e. that's the best case scenario if the UK gets 'unlucky' with the synoptics. On Steve Murr's commendation, i'll post the 18Z ensembles - there is now a consensus for the northerly with azores high ridging to the mid Atlantic by +240 hours http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

By 360 hours out, it's a complete mess, but that's to be expected at that kind of range! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=360

[shuggee]

Network Rail cleared 856 fallen trees today across the Scottish network. That's quite a statistic...

[Northern Strath]

Sound's like a nice visit of some lake effect snow for South Bend Indiana but, as we know, the US is firmly having a mild one like us thus far Click

A Winter's Tale I wish I could be more specific for your snow log (no count for days with falling snow) but here's the story so far from this neck of the woods

3 days lying November

16 Days lying December

3 Days lying January

Max snow depth - 19cm Wed 7th Dec

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

3 days lying November

16 Days lying December

3 Days lying January

Max snow depth - 19cm Wed 7th Dec

Have you posted this on the model thread? ....

[Northern Strath]

Have you posted this on the model thread? ....

Nah, I am mearly a teuchter mountain goat, of no interest to them :winky:

[A Winter's Tale]

Sound's like a nice visit of some lake effect snow for South Bend Indiana but, as we know, the US is firmly having a mild one like us thus far Click

A Winter's Tale I wish I could be more specific for your snow log (no count for days with falling snow) but here's the story so far from this neck of the woods

3 days lying November

16 Days lying December

3 Days lying January

Max snow depth - 19cm Wed 7th Dec

What a winter it is up there! How does this compare with our winters in before recent ones?

[Cheggers]

Have you posted this on the model thread? ....

Now now, Prozac in short supply in there already.

AWT, snow log... 5 days lying Dec, 7 of falling, max depth 5cm i think.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Cheggers

[Northern Strath]

What a winter it is up there! How does this compare with our winters in before recent ones?

Pretty uneventful so far really AWT. The snow has been far from disruptive, I would usually expect to be snowed in with the driveway impassable at least twice over the course of a winter, so far that has yet to happen once, still plenty time though! The last three winters have seen some phenomonal snow depths up here, 09/10 in particular where we basically had snow cover from the 2nd week in December all the way through to the first four days of April. I live at height and in the woods so the snow takes a good while to shift. Today it took a bit of a battering with that rain mind!

Edited January 5, 2012 by Northern Strath

[A Winter's Tale]

Now now, Prozac in short supply in there already.

AWT, snow log... 5 days lying Dec, 7 of falling, max depth 5cm i think.

Sound's like a nice visit of some lake effect snow for South Bend Indiana but, as we know, the US is firmly having a mild one like us thus far Click

A Winter's Tale I wish I could be more specific for your snow log (no count for days with falling snow) but here's the story so far from this neck of the woods

3 days lying November

16 Days lying December

3 Days lying January

Max snow depth - 19cm Wed 7th Dec

We had 8 lying snow days in december with a maximum depth of 14cm.

On another note, where the hell did that come from tonight?!! The wind and especially the rain tonight have been scary at times!! I work in Morrisons and at around 8pm, part of the ceiling gave way and the water came pouring in, within seconds it was ankle deep at the front of the shop. I also found my car surrounded by about about 6 inches of water in the carpark when I finished at 9PM.

Bring back the safety of the heavy snow!

Snow lying days here - 2 I reckon? Both were no more than about 2 mm in depth (that's right, mm).

Should have added - 6 mornings with lying snow here in December 2011 - none in January so far! The max depth about 6-7cm on the morning of 5 December.

Well rained here today, another dull one. But i'm going to be Optimistic - had a healthy apple and as i'm being good and thinking positive i am sure that there will be more snow!!! - lol you gotta try something to get snow!!! and start cutting down on the cake!

As for snaw well i can only recall one day with lying snow of about 3cm - the one and only time i've used my snow shovel!!!!!!!!!

Snow: one half-day, c.1cm, in December, otherwise no lying snow and no falling snow. ie NAE SNAW!

2011: outstanding weather event - when a tiny part of south Edinburgh got, I heard on radio next day over two inches of rain in under 30 minutes. Literal cloudburst, quite extraordinary. Frightening though yesterday's 102mph wind was, that deluge was the only time I genuinely thought I may die, as the thunder was a continuous 20-minute burst; cat and I crouched in safest room (structurally) and the ground shook the whole time. The noise was incredible. A few hundred yards away, flash floods gave three foot of water, and shops on a steep hill had floods. A friend living on a notoriously steep hill reported the water flowing past, up to the numberplates of parked cars.

2012: outstanding weather event thus far - 102mph gust hitting our house!

I am not too bothered by the rain. Rain I can live with (other than that cloudburst...) but I just wish it would stop being so violently windy. It feels like it gusts to 40-50mph two to three days a week and feels like it has done forever...

1 half day of snow,guesstimate probably 5mm lol.

In response to a winters tale

5 days of falling snow

1 day of lying snow

Maximum Depth half a centimetre

I will try and link profile to map later at home

Great, keep these coming in. Come the end of the winter, we should see who and where has done well and not so well.

[Hairy Celt]

Pretty uneventful so far really AWT. The snow has been far from disruptive, I would usually expect to be snowed in with the driveway impassable at least twice over the course of a winter, so far that has yet to happen once, still plenty time though! The last three winters have seen some phenomonal snow depths up here, 09/10 in particular where we basically had snow cover from the 2nd week in December all the way through to the first four days of April. I live at height and in the woods so the snow takes a good while to shift. Today it took a bit of a battering with that rain mind!

Just comparing you to Nethybridge where I have an elderly aunt - what altitude are you at? She reckoned only 10 days lying snow in December, and concurred with you in that it wasn't as snowy as the last two winters so far.

AWT for the record: four days lying snow in December, max depth 4cm. Many days of sleet and 2C or 3C... Bear in mind this is a beach hut!

[Northern Strath]

Just comparing you to Nethybridge where I have an elderly aunt - what altitude are you at? She reckoned only 10 days lying snow in December, and concurred with you in that it wasn't as snowy as the last two winters so far.

AWT for the record: four days lying snow in December, max depth 4cm. Many days of sleet and 2C or 3C... Bear in mind this is a beach hut!

Not exactly sure HC but I do know that the Nursing Home near Auchnahillin is at 870ft as my Grandfather informed me when he went there and we are up the road from that, so at least 900ft plus??

Our 16 days in December were consecutive but sadly could'nt contend with the mild spell before Christmas so we lost it all in the early part of the week running up to it. Nethybridge is a nice wee place, a very cold little hollow too!

Edited January 5, 2012 by Northern Strath

[Guest]

Great, keep these coming in. Come the end of the winter, we should see who and where has done well and not so well.

I'm not sure if it was seven or eight snow days in Dec so best call it seven before the snow police come and take me away.

Max depth about 5cm.

Falling snow in Dec? Probs about the same as above, although I'm not 100% sure.

One day of falling snow in Jan, but it was only really five minutes of snow in a heavy shower on the day of the Medium Storm of January 2012.

Edited January 5, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Was I supposed to be counting? Och pants.

Maybe 7 days lying and 4 days falling? +/-1 day error. Max depth 12 cm.

Windy again here, or should mention this anymore, it being the norm now?

Edited January 5, 2012 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

GFS doesn't develop the Aleutian ridge this morning but ECM does by 240. Positive signs are there tho' for a shift in this pattern eventually. Some on the model thread not too happy as developments remaining in FI. Very encouraging conversations in the Strat thread however re another warmiing. Looking forward to Chionos update later. I think things will start coming together more during/ after the weekend.

A bit windy again this morning innit? Just had a gust of 47mph. Temp 4.4c dewpoint -2.7c wind N/Nw.

[GulberwickWeather]

Windy but nothing remarkable up here over the past few days. Currently F5 gusting F7.

[Northernlights]

Well a very wet night culminating in a very heavy shower of hail; and wet snow giving a dusting of frozen snow as skies cleared at dawn.Side roads like skating rinks as the ground frost takes hold.Currently 0.5c.

For AWT December statistics from farm diary;.

Days of lying snow 12.

Days of falling snow 6.

Maximum depth of snow 10cms 18th of December.

Ice Days 6.

6