Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[blitzen]

That last gust was 60.2mph. Was this expected? I am paying far too much attention to future forecasts that I have no idea what today was supposed to bring! I need to calm down and pay attention! :lol:

[snowmess]

Glad it wasn't just me who thought it was getting a wee bit windy, Blitzen!

I would take heavy snow and freezing cold over this any-day.

[BleakMidwinter]

That last gust was 60.2mph. Was this expected? I am paying far too much attention to future forecasts that I have no idea what today was supposed to bring! I need to calm down and pay attention! :lol:

The forecasts I've seen for Embra have basically been saying the overnights and mornings are gusting into the high-50s, calmer in afternoons, for the next wee while.

I'm sick of it. Trying to meet a pal for a walk this morning and going to be wearing so many woolly layers against windchill we won't be able to move our legs to walk! It was supposed to be snowy - I'm sure I booked "deep snow" for my birthday and I've got puddles and wind - they delivered the wrong weather!!!

Anecdotal climate record: we moved to Scotland summer of 1979, and from then til I left school in summer 1987 I had, iirc, only two birthdays in 8 years that weren't snowy. I moved back in spring 97 and over the next decade there was only one that was snowy. Embra South suburbia has definitely had less snow in early January in the last decade compared with the first decade we were here. Although last year was fabulous

[Poots]

I'm sick of it. Trying to meet a pal for a walk this morning and going to be wearing so many woolly layers against windchill we won't be able to move our legs to walk! It was supposed to be snowy - I'm sure I booked "deep snow" for my birthday and I've got puddles and wind - they delivered the wrong weather!!!

Happy Birthday! (I'm assuming it is today?)

Windy here, couple of hairy moments last night with the gusts but it's calmed down to a mere 40-50mph breeze this morning. It's still raining, 11.3mm in the last 24hrs according to the ws. Pressure low at 977 and temp is 5c.

AWT - snow stats for me: 6 days of lying snow in December with a maximum depth of around 30cm.

I heard a rumour that the yellow orb may appear today.......

[David H]

Can someone help me there seems to be an unusual weather event happening here.

I'm looking out the window at work and the trees aren't moving - is this not strange

Also there are hardly any clouds in the sky - again is this unusual

And finally theres a big yellow round cloud thats so bright - surely this can't be a cloud, what could it be.

[Snowlover2]

Can someone help me there seems to be an unusual weather event happening here.

I'm looking out the window at work and the trees aren't moving - is this not strange

Also there are hardly any clouds in the sky - again is this unusual

And finally theres a big yellow round cloud thats so bright - surely this can't be a cloud, what could it be.

Somebody told me it was called the sun. I think they're pulling my leg though.

[Soaring Hawk]

The Bi-polar thread flips again! Over one run from the ECM!!!

I think during one moment we had the most negativity in there this winter and the next minute, I think it's the most positive it has been with the likes of GP and RJS continuing to post encouraging news!

But I'm positive that by the morning the mood in the model thread will revert back to it's default mode.

Paranoia....?

[blitzen]

I like the look of the 06z. Chart watching has been much more interesting the past few days. I don.t think it can be denied that possible routes to cold are being opened up? GP's update was also very confident this morning for things to progress and although some on the MT are impatient that things appear stuck in FI, I think the outlook will look a lot more favourable after the weekend. There is some serious cold to be had up top and if things were to progress as hoped, then bingo - winter at last!

[Soaring Hawk]

AWT I'm afraid my snow log is very patchy (ahem, sorry!). I've been working in Newcastle during the week since September and only returning home at weekends, with no weekend visits in early to mid December due to workload. However, when I rang my neighbour to check if my house was still standing the evening of Bawthingies, he reported that our village had lying snow for 3 days the week before. He thinks a maximum depth of 2 to 3 inches. Returning home on 17th December found 3 inches of snow which had already been on the ground 2 days and lasted 5 in total.

Therefore a defininite zero for November and a tentative 8 days of lying snow with a max depth of 3 inches for December. Which seems quite a lot for the west of Scotland at only 400-450 feet asl compared to other area reports from around the country?

[edo]

4.1 degres and...............drum roll please................................................sunny.....I literally cant remember the last time I seen it......happy for it to pop off again though when deep cold and snow arrives......must check bi-polar thread to find out when that is

[sn0wman]

I had forgotten there was a thing called the 'sun' for awhile! It's 5.5c, very sunny and a tad beezy here.

[Cheggers]

Cold, wet and windy....... sorry got used to typing this!

Wall to wall sunshine, albeit it cold.

Damage continues..... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-16406196

Edited January 5, 2012 by Cheggers

[windsock]

That big round yellow thing was in the sky here too this morning.

It didn't last long. 70% cloud now, and a heavy shower a minute ago.

[BleakMidwinter]

It is today, thanks, Poots - maybe that's why it's suddenly gone calm and sunny?

Mild enough that I took my gloves and hat off on my way back from a walk just now - weird, walking outside without them!

[Big Innes Madori]

Cold, wet and windy....... sorry got used to typing this!

Wall to wall sunshine, albeit it cold.

Damage continues..... http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16406196

Howz the wee wan Cheggers?

40 hrs withoot electricity everything in the fridgefreezer wasted , 1 chimney pot blown doon and damaged the roof slates, aboot 3 more chimney pots ready tae come doon at any time

Hurricane Baw Heed certainly left it's mark, the bassa.

Nae mair storms, pleeease!

Big Pi55ed Aff Innes

[LomondSnowstorm]

I like the look of the 06z. Chart watching has been much more interesting the past few days. I don.t think it can be denied that possible routes to cold are being opened up? GP's update was also very confident this morning for things to progress and although some on the MT are impatient that things appear stuck in FI, I think the outlook will look a lot more favourable after the weekend. There is some serious cold to be had up top and if things were to progress as hoped, then bingo - winter at last!

Looking at the background signals is a lot more reliable than watching the GFS and ECM constantly changing their minds: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/page__st__740

The models are probably going to continue to struggle because of the major warming in the stratosphere and we're just going to have to accept that FI is much closer than it has been at any other point in the winter. Of course with the storms there was a huge amount of uncertainty regarding their positioning but there weren't huge changes upstream of that. In this instance we're looking at potentially a major pattern change around the middle of January while in the short range we have a relatively straight forward pattern i.e. a continuation of the zonality of the last few months, except with the greater influence of the Azores High leading to more settled interludes.

[snowy owl]

what a braw bricht moonlit nicht the nicht - oooops sorry that should say what a braw bricht sunny day - chilly but gorgeous day for a walk !!! thats the first day i've been able to go for a walk without wind/rain/hurricane gusts since boxing day??!!

[Northern Strath]

Light covering of the white stuff at some point in the night, pretty dull day so far but the blue skies also appear to be making there way here for a rare visit. All in all pretty calm and sitting at 2.4C

[frewbuddie]

Nice to see clear Blue Sky and the Sun out had a pleasant walk it was good to stretch the auld legs, think I should have worn sunglasses my eyes are nipping now.

[blitzen]

Oh dear, I feel a little deflated now. Was reading the strat thread and a post by Brickfielder was inferring that the warming which has/is taking place, really isn't the type of warming that we want. This type of warming would lead to a displacement of the vortex rather than a break up? Perhaps I am not understanding his post properly though as it is a bit technical.. Perhaps LS can explain a bit more?

Edited January 5, 2012 by Blitzen

[Northern Strath]

Just took the dog out for a walk, that is a devilishly raw wind, blowing in the occcasional mixed bag of sleet and wet snow showers

Had first ciggie of the year (slaps wrist) New Years resolutions are so passé

Edited January 5, 2012 by Northern Strath

[A Winter's Tale]

Oh dear, I feel a little deflated now. Was reading the strat thread and a post by Brickfielder was inferring that the warming which has/is taking place, really isn't the type of warming that we want. This type of warming would lead to a displacement of the vortex rather than a break up? Perhaps I am not understanding his post properly though as it is a bit technical.. Perhaps LS can explain a bit more?

or Lorezo!

We've still got the rest of January left to finally reach that breakthrough but I'm getting the feeling that the stratosphere, PV and models are not going to bring us any goods anytime soon and by the time they do, it's too late. But of course, this about a severe cold spell that past 3 winter have given us - a great winter moment may await us come Spring:

March - If the jet continues to rampage throughout the rest of the winter, it may slow down resulting in a cold month. March can bring a lot of wintry weather and can bring large frontal snowfalls such as 2006. So March may bring us quite a few wintry days and maybe one helluva snowfall event.

April - Snowfall is possible and lying snow is too. I've seen pictures of 3-7cm of snow in a coastal village in Souther England during one April, so I would imagine that lying snow anywhere in Scotland is possible - if we get the snow of course. I do fancy having my first ever April lying snow.

May - I've seen it snow in May and it's possible if you get a good northerly. It should only amount to just falling snow, but in the north some lying snow is possible. And I've read about motorways coming to a standstill and schools closing in Wales with a 20cm snowfall in a May in the 1990s. Still some potential here!

As far as I'm concerned, winter weather, snow, lying snow and some notable snow is possible during the next 5 months. And there's still time for a great cold spell in February or March.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh dear, I feel a little deflated now. Was reading the strat thread and a post by Brickfielder was inferring that the warming which has/is taking place, really isn't the type of warming that we want. This type of warming would lead to a displacement of the vortex rather than a break up? Perhaps I am not understanding his post properly though as it is a bit technical.. Perhaps LS can explain a bit more?

At the moment, we haven't witnessed a full on 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming', so basically warming means that the polar vortex is wekeaning and being displaced from the arctic. The argument is about how this will play out - one of the options is that it is displaced to our side of the Arctic and essentially leave us in a similar synoptic pattern to December for a bit. Another wave of negative zonal winds is set to further weaken the vortex, and that will start to interact with the ground level pattern so all may not yet be lost.

Perfect example of what BF is talking about I think http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120105/12/252/npsh500.png

Aleutian high ridging into the Arctic, vortex across the Atlantic, troughing over the UK. The high eventually builds in from the north, perhaps allowing the trough to dig south and the cold air to be brought west. It does look like there will be a change of sorts, it's just about working out how that change will take place.

[Hairy Celt]

Nice and sunny mostly today with occ wintry showers and sprouty bursts.

I reckon 95% of posts on the MT are less interesting or useful than the posts here and I've pretty well abandoned it for meaningful info. The ensembles still look chaotic so I'll just take what comes...

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm gping to change my profile pic and I'd like you to choose which one is the best!

1) - Shows the nearby Campsie Fells with winter sunset, snow and sheep.

2) - Shows a winter sunset on a snow covered Edinburgh.

3) - Another snowy scene of the nearby Campsies.

4) - Winter scene with dusk at the Campsies.

5) - A snowy scene in Scotland.

6) - Snow covered Scotland from Space.

7) - Deep snow with old fashioned phone box.

- A snowy mate.