Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's firewood now - blew away during bawsting. Back to the drawing board.

Guess what, cold, windy and wet here.

ECM 12Z looking better than the GFS 12Z which seemed to put the model thread on suicide watch.

More of the same at best marginal stuff associated with brief colder polar maritme incursions: but again towards the end of the run we see something more interesting. Certainly models keep wanting distruption/splitting of the vortex to occur:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.240.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.240.png

EDIT. With AO in negative teritory, will the NAO follow?

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

Oh dear, there's always some kind of melodrama unfolding on the MT! Those are the perils of following every single GFS run religiously even up to +384 hours - completely unrealistic expectations and general confusion about what's going on in the world. The general trend looks reasonably promising even if the GFS operational doesn't always show this. Reasonable hints of troughing over Scandinavia from the ensembles http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120104/12/prmslOslo.png

and for a general drop in pressure across Europe http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120104/12/prmslBerlin.png

Those ensembles + the ECM suggests that the mid Atlantic ridge route is perhaps more likely. The NAO going negative will depend on whether we can clear the high pressure out of continental Europe and get blocking at higher latitudes.

[Guest]

Should have added - 6 mornings with lying snow here in December 2011 - none in January so far! The max depth about 6-7cm on the morning of 12 December.

We had a good few mornings with snow on the ground here. I sent a rant to the local council one Monday morning as I had to walk my seven year old son down the middle of the road to school due to the pavements being completely iced over. We couldn't physcially stand on the pavement, let alone walk. The snow had fallen on the Thursday night so the council had four mornings to get something done. I wouldn't have minded so much but in October the council were trumpeting about "not getting caught again" and about how they had spent £2million on pavement snow/ice clearing machinery. I copied in all my local councillors to the e-mail. The only response I got was one councillor telling me off for swearing!

The rain has somehow got even heavier and the wind is picking up again...when's the front coming through as this sounds promising.

That'll be now then? (for the front passing through)

Chart!! :lol:

[windsock]

..... I just wish it would stop being so violently windy. It feels like it gusts to 40-50mph two to three days a week and feels like it has done forever...

Yes. It's utterly wretched. Mind you I'd settle for the 40-50mph gusts just 2 or 3 days a week - here we've got them every sodden day!.....

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/he/stornoway_forecast_weather.html

I have less than zero faith in anyones ability to forecast the weather with any semblance of accuracy more than one week ahead - they may as well dangle a string of bladderwrack out their attic window and gaze in a crystal ball, for all the good it will do. So I'm not going to fret over any predictions of whether or not this jetstream-driven nightmare will ever end. Oh no.

Instead I'm going to sacrifice my mother-in-law in a wicker frame whilst invoking the mighty Jupiter and Saturn to send me a blocking high.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a large wicker frame to attend to.

[BleakMidwinter]

Yes. It's utterly wretched. Mind you I'd settle for the 40-50mph gusts just 2 or 3 days a week - here we've got them every sodden day!.....

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

I have less than zero faith in anyones ability to forecast the weather with any semblance of accuracy more than one week ahead - they may as well dangle a string of bladderwrack out their attic window and gaze in a crystal ball, for all the good it will do. So I'm not going to fret over any predictions of whether or not this jetstream-driven nightmare will ever end. Oh no.

Be fair, though - you do live on a Hebridean island off the north-west tip of an island off the north-west tip of europe... I mean, nobody would move to Lewis thinking, ah those tranquil calm days the Hebrides are famed for...

Famously I did use to have a bit of bladderwrack (from Skye, actually) on the handlebars of my bicycle in the days when I cycled half an hour to and from work. It only gave a very short forecast, but it was fairly reliable for whether it was worth layering on some water-resistant layers or whether I could just cycle home as I was!

Instead I'm going to sacrifice my mother-in-law in a wicker frame whilst invoking the mighty Jupiter and Saturn to send me a blocking high.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a large wicker frame to attend to.

Let us know if it works... I could always try and find someone to marry in order to gain a mother-in-law to sacrifice!

[spindrift1980]

Wind is howling again here and the trees they are a-swaying yet again!

[Ceitidh]

Blowing a hoolie here again and a lot of flooding in certain areas. Can anybody actually remember what the sun looks like???

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

We had a good few mornings with snow on the ground here. I sent a rant to the local council one Monday morning as I had to walk my seven year old son down the middle of the road to school due to the pavements being completely iced over.

Wear some old socks over your shoes. You'll look silly until everyone else slips on their ass but you walk confidenly along...

Found this cheesy dude demonstrating. Ice really needs to be polished to perfection for fine fibres in the sock not to grip well. I suspect cotton would be the best as it absorbs water.

Edited January 4, 2012 by scottish skier

[Blizzardo]

That's me over 50mm of rain in the last 24 hours. Roads really tricky.

[BleakMidwinter]

Wear some old socks over your shoes. You'll look silly until everyone else slips on their ass but you walk confidenly along...

Or, looking slightly less silly (because less obvious), cut the foot off old long thick socks and just slide the leg-tube over the forrard 2/3 of your boot, covering your sole. It's the sole that slips more than the heel, as on ice you either strike hard enough for your heel to cut a grip, or you walk more on the forefoot.

[Guest]

Wear some old socks over your shoes. You'll look silly until everyone else slips on their ass but you walk confidenly along...

If only I'd had old socks with me, the walk started off fine down the bit of road outside my house that I had gritted...

[skyeblue]

Trampoline nah

Omg bus stop omg bus stop lol

[NUT]

Think some sort of squall must have just went through or something as the rain was absolutely extraordinary there for a couple of minutes

[Guest]

Blowing a hoolie here again and a lot of flooding in certain areas. Can anybody actually remember what the sun looks like???

I'm told that it will make an appearance tomorrow. Please have your pagan worship rituals ready for action, personally I'm going to sacrifice a kangaroo and see if that helps!

Think some sort of squall must have just went through or something as the rain was absolutely extraordinary there for a couple of minutes

I think it would have been the front passing through, but you're right about the squall line.

[A Winter's Tale]

Wear some old socks over your shoes. You'll look silly until everyone else slips on their ass but you walk confidenly along...

Found this cheesy dude demonstrating. Ice really needs to be polished to perfection for fine fibres in the sock not to grip well. I suspect cotton would be the best as it absorbs water.

Aye! But not as daft as this:

I'd rather wear socks on my shoes on the ice than the being a plonker and wear incredibly low trousers.

[Ross B]

Just went a run in that - natures assault course!! Ran through the floods, clambered over and under trees then came across part of the forest which I just couldn't get through as there was so many trees down. Will need to go back when it's light to get some photos as the damage was extensive. Got a wee bit annoying in the end as I could only see the trees down from a few metres away and had to keep turning back to find a way through, need a better head torch!

Not surprising looking at the charts, must be the cold front going through now. You can see the temp gradient clearly between the north of Scotland and the central belt.

[snowy owl]

Yikes we've had the squall here too - hail/rain the works, geez its windy!!

[Cheggers]

Trampoline nah

Omg bus stop omg bus stop lol

Where? Ours went yesterday by the Schools, flat, crumpled like cardboard.

Lots of flooding round here. Road fir Falkirk to Bonnybridge was just one long splash! Farm Road here by railway bridge, maybe 6" deep and burn more like white water rapids. Will this ever end, and if the wind blows, please blow the nasty, midge haven at the end of my garden over. How it is still standing I will never know.

[Poots]

Power here is just about to go. Just had a really intense downpour and huge gusts, better go and get the candles!

[A Winter's Tale]

It's pretty windy here!

Not as bad in NW England where in the Everton vs Bolton League match, the Liverpool side have scored via the goalkeeper with assistance with the wind!

[Hairy Celt]

It's pretty windy here!

Not as bad in NW England where in the Everton vs Bolton League match, the Liverpool side have scored via the goalkeeper with assistance with the wind!

Whaddya mean 'the Liverpool side'???? Everton are NOT Liverpool!

Eerm, sorry about that.

Still raining - sort of - getting windy again and temp's dropping back from the giddy height of 4C.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Guest]

Whaddya mean 'the Liverpool side'???? Everton are NOT Liverpool!

Eerm, sorry about that.

Still raining - sort of - getting windy again and temp's dropping back from the giddy height of 4C.

I think he meant the side from Liverpool??

[Isolated Frost]

Whaddya mean 'the Liverpool side'???? Everton are NOT Liverpool!

Eerm, sorry about that.

Still raining - sort of - getting windy again and temp's dropping back from the giddy height of 4C.

Good lad HC, not in a million years will I have the reds confused with Everton! Ever!

[Cheggers]

Good lad HC, not in a million years will I have the reds confused with Everton! Ever!

Although was funny to see a form of Reds get a spanking tonight.

Temp @ 6C and wind has eased a little, and a bit of twinkling going off in the sky, not sure.

[A Winter's Tale]

The Bi-polar thread flips again! Over one run from the ECM!!!

I think during one moment we had the most negativity in there this winter and the next minute, I think it's the most positive it has been with the likes of GP and RJS continuing to post encouraging news!

But I'm positive that by the morning the mood in the model thread will revert back to it's default mode.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The Bi-polar thread flips again! Over one run from the ECM!!!

I think during one moment we had the most negativity in there this winter and the next minute, I think it's the most positive it has been with the likes of GP and RJS continuing to post encouraging news!

But I'm positive that by the morning the mood in the model thread will revert back to it's default mode.

It has a default mode? I thought it was just ramp-TOORP-'don't be so silly' post-ramp-TOORP etc.