Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[Guest]

Maybe there were a lot of things 'taking off' from that area earlier today?

I like it SS, the damage was fairly bad. My dad and I had to cut our way out to the end of the road, we were tree-ed in today.

I have updated my signature and will be mostly eating humble pie...with my good friend the Met-O!! They issued the red weather warning for this area after the winds started to subside Although I do appreciate for other areas the wind was still very strong or not yet peaked.

[LomondSnowstorm]

On Tuesday, the low's positioning will make an enormous different as to which areas will squeeze out another full day of potential wintriness - http://expert-images...010306_0118.gif . This is a simply astonishing upper temperature gradient http://expert-images...010306_0118.gif 8C across about 40 miles. The NAE is actually predicting a drop in temperatures as the precipitation hits on Tuesday morning ( http://expert-images...010306_0118.gif ) meaning that away from the east coast where easterly winds will raised dewpoints uppers of -1/-2C might well be good enough for snow ( http://expert-images...010306_0118.gif ). The intensity will be a major factor in keeping that 'latent cooling' effect going but accumulations of 5-10cm are quite possible for those areas that are to the north of the 0C upper line. Note also that this system has 'southgraded' signficantly even in the last 12 hours so further movement is possible and if that movement is south we could be in for severe rush hour disruption on Tuesday morning. Later on the focus shifts to the northeast as the winds veer northerly http://expert-images...010312_0118.gif . Again, potential for upwards of 10cm at the moment for inland Aberdeenshire from that system, and perhaps more generally an inch or two. Worth noting also that if the NAE is right with its positioning of the low the winds would only really be an issue for eastern areas http://expert-images...010309_0118.gif .

It could be, with the low tracking further south than initially thought the worst of the winds are more likely to be in the Irish Sea around the Isle of Man. However, I wouldn't feel confident saying either way that it will or won't be cancelled given how much the track and shape of the low could still change. It's unlikely to be notably windy compared to other storms but it will still be pretty choppy out at sea.

A lot can change in 36 hours....

[Northern Strath]

Good grief, a tad windy for so many of you today! :o Hope you are all grand and unscathed after that now familiar battering. When I flicked on the TV this morning to catch the news the camera over the Clyde was shaking so much behind Catriona Shearer it was like some sort of Fight Club version of Reporting Scotland :huh:

As a few of the fellow northerners have reported, it's been a much calmer affair up here today. Certainly no snow-fest either even up here on the higher ground, though we did get a top up by a few meaty showers through the day. All quiet at the mo and currently 1.6C

[Cheggers]

The Met-O are inventing new airports in Scotland:

91mph Glasgow, Bishopton Airport

I'm saying nothing...for now.

About as accurate as their warning system.

Just in from bowling with the clan, as cabin fever was setting in, lots of tile debris in Bonnybridge village, more than half the houses up here are missing tiles, fences etc. Falkirk has lots of large tree debris, Tamfourhill road was blocked with big tree down, and outside my work (Alexander Dennis) the tree's are leaning 45 degree,s with roots showing.

This was the Forth Road Bridge earlier lol

[Guest]

Good grief, a tad windy for so many of you today! :o Hope you are all grand and unscathed after that now familiar battering. When I flicked on the TV this morning to catch the news the camera over the Clyde was shaking so much behind Catriona Shearer it was like some sort of Fight Club version of Reporting Scotland :huh:

As a few of the fellow northerners have reported, it's been a much calmer affair up here today. Certainly no snow-fest either even up here on the higher ground, though we did get a top up by a few meaty showers through the day. All quiet at the mo and currently 1.6C

That was pretty special by recent standards, still not a patch on 1998 though

[Norrance]

Dry asnd cloudy here now at 3c with a Westerly breeze. I see the Glenogle and Tyndrum Live Eye cameras are showing snow currently.

[Northern Strath]

It did look by far the worst this winter CMD! Is it too much to ask for a meaty, prolonged blast from a Northerly or Easterly any time soon? Preferabley not accompanied by winds that would blow Michelle McManus off a mo-ped

Edited January 3, 2012 by Northern Strath

[Guest]

After the wind the flood?

24 hour rainfall to 00z Thurs from the NMM:

[Guest]

Finally, deep deep in FI there are tentative signs of us being stuck with this type of weather forever :blink: :unknw:

[edo]

Escaped it here only really an hour of very strong wind this morning and been pretty calm the rest of the day....was still strong enough to blow my daughter over when walked to the shop this morning by then she is only 20mths....was far worse on Xmas day here....really is incredible how can experience such different weather short distances apart that some of us are

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

What's happened with the netweather GFS ensembles? Still showing the 00Z....

Can someone give me a link to where these are available on wetterzentral (I think)?

Cheers.

Edited January 3, 2012 by scottish skier

[aggy]

Looking at the radar - there was quite an intense area of showers heading SE - http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Now, with low pressure, an incredible transition from mild to cold, possible wintryness and convection over the warm Firth of Clyde mixed with intense showers and cold air then some tornadic conditions may be possible!

So it was brown. Was it conical shaped, thin or thick and a contrast to the sky? How long did it last?

To me, I actually do believe that you've see a tornado! Have you seen one in the area before?

hey,

yeah it was conical and i would assume all the way to the ground but i couldnt see it was wasnt hugly thick but a desent size and from when i saw it , it lasted about 40 seconds untill i couldnt see it anymore , im actually convinced it was one.

in may there was a tornado in maybole that destryed some caravans at the park and a funnel was spotted over monkton around the same month .....

[Cheggers]

What's happened with the netweather GFS ensembles? Still showing the 00Z....

Can someone give me a link to where these are available on wetterzentral (I think)?

Cheers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html I think!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsenseur.html I think!

Danke mein Freund

Found these:

http://www.jp2webdes.../two/ensembles/

Here too:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=&MODELL=gefsts&BASE=gefs&VAR=&HH=0&MODELLTYP=2&WMO=03140

Edited January 3, 2012 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

After the wind the flood?

24 hour rainfall to 00z Thurs from the NMM:

Dear god, we're all going to have to retreat to that icy plateau where only Rab lives at this rate (or at least buy a boat)...

ECM worth a look for a bit of optimism http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120103/12/ecm500.240.png

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Dear god, we're all going to have to retreat to that icy plateau where only Rab lives at this rate (or at least buy a boat)...

ECM worth a look for a bit of optimism http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

ECM and GFS really quite similar at that time-frame..

http://hw.nwstatic.c...240/npsh500.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.240.png

Sod off strong polar vortex centred over Baffin bay.

Been working on this in the back garden. Could come in handy tomorrow.

Edited January 3, 2012 by scottish skier

[Guest]

Dear god, we're all going to have to retreat to that icy plateau where only Rab lives at this rate (or at least buy a boat)...

ECM worth a look for a bit of optimism http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

I think the GFS had something which looked promising too in the early reaches of far FI...I seem to remember it toppled pretty quickly. Will that do similar?

[Hairy Celt]

The Grauniad's usual accuracy:

Snow was absent, however, except in mountainous areas of the Scottish Highlands

Not sure that 100m asl on the barren, goat-herd infested Black Isle counts as mountainous.

Much more sleet and rain and I really will need a snorkel.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think the GFS had something which looked promising too in the early reaches of far FI...I seem to remember it toppled pretty quickly. Will that do similar?

Perhaps it would, it did look slightly more convincing, less so on the NH I admit but heights over Greenland are definitely higher on the ECM than the GFS. Anyway, PV over Baffin isn't exactly the kiss of death to northerly blocking http://176.31.229.22...9-12-13-0-0.png

http://176.31.229.22...47-1-19-0-0.png (clutches at straws )

edit: note a common theme in those is the aleutian ridge.

Edited January 3, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[NorthernRab]

The Grauniad's usual accuracy:

Snow was absent, however, except in mountainous areas of the Scottish Highlands

Not sure that 100m asl on the barren, goat-herd infested Black Isle counts as mountainous.

Much more sleet and rain and I really will need a snorkel.

Correct, was just at the Dores Inn for a meal and there was snow on Cairn A'Bhodaich and up Abriachan.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Anyway, something a bit more salient than some 'will it won't it' FI charts: John Holmes' endearingly traditionalist but methodically reasoned long range forecast:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__pid__2201933__st__1360#entry2201933

Basically it says that, most likely, one of these times the azore high is going to ridge north.

[mardatha]

Just got power back, been off since 10am. Was SO miffed that I missed all the posts!

[Polarlow]

I thought I would share a wee video of the trees blown down today from my bedroom window here in Dundee ...

[Cheggers]

Anyone see the Forth Bridge flexing on the BBC news. Wow, can see why they closed it.

[lorenzo]

Just catching up on all the posts from today - what an event. Hope everyone has recovered and not experienced the damage illustrated by some incredible pictures today.

Most certainly a Sting Jet created via the LP deepening in the small hours.

3D diagram here for where the feature forms within the tail of the low. ''The sting jet is born at an altitude of three miles, within layers of ascending moist air. As the jet descends, it passes through ice crystals that cool it, increase its density and cause it to accelerate to more than 100mph at ground level.''

Really hope the models throw up a mid-atlantic block now to shut the door on these systems.. 17,000 folks without power still.

A couple of other photos here -

First is a Waterfall being reversed by the wind in Cumbria.

Second is a moment of comedy in Dorset..