January CET

[Harve]

I agree with this, January has definitely seen an overall lack of wintry weather on average compared to the other winter months. Certainly the period 1987-2011 shows this very well:

Mean Number of days with snow falling in Hedon (1987-2011):

December: 3.6

January: 3.5

February: 5.9

March: 3.2

Days with snow lying at 0900:

December: 2.5

January: 1.7

February: 2.0

March: 0.8

As a side note, I'm shocked at how mild / snowless your winters are. East Yorkshire isn't too far from me at all.

There certainly have been a number of snowless Januarys over the past 24 years. The Januarys of 1989, 1990, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006 , 2008 and 2011 all passed without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country.

And I'm pretty sure snow has fell and lay for at least one day on every January of the last 15 years, though I'm unsure of earlier. The same applies to February - although last year's was lucky in that the two occasions of lying snow didn't last the entire day, but were present at 9am. I'm not precise enough to record such details though.

I did realise that at 350m in the Peak District was a little snowier than the further south and east, but I didn't realise it was to such a huge extent.

[Scorcher]

Hmmm, has it?

February 2011 was very mild but February 2009 and 2010 had cold wintry episodes, February 2008 was mild but February 2007 delivered the main snow event of that winter to the south. The main wintry spell of winter 2004-05 was late February-early March. Winter 2005-06 was also late February -early March although much more into March than with the previous year.

It's a good point but I think it depends whether you're looking for 'spells' of cold weather or cold in terms of the whole month. When was the last 'cold' February CET? 2010 comes to closest to qualifying, but other than that there is barely anything in terms of cold February CETs.

[reef]

The rise continues with Hadley now on 6.3C to the 21st. Yesterday was 8.5C.

Another rise is likely tomorrow as today's min is 6.7C with maxima well into double figures.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The rise continues with Hadley now on 6.3C to the 21st. Yesterday was 8.5C.

Another rise is likely tomorrow as today's min is 6.7C with maxima well into double figures.

Dreadful stats reef,becoming a notorious winter to match 88/89 91/92 imo.

[The PIT]

A mild week to come mostly although country file said becomning cold by Friday and then dumped 8c as max temp which is 2c above normal. Perhaps they meant turning colder during the day.

[reef]

As a side note, I'm shocked at how mild / snowless your winters are. East Yorkshire isn't too far from me at all.

Its not really that unusual in lowland England close to the coast. Being inland and with some altitude helps enormously in this country.

Unfortunately there has been a rapid decline in the average days of snow lying here as the climate has slowly warmed. In this location the 1961-1990 average for January was 4.2 days, the 1971-2000 average was 2.9 days and Im sure the 1981-2010 average will be lower again (but we'll have to wait for the MetOffice to update the figures to see that, my snowfall stats only go back to 1987).

As for the CET, if we were to finish on the 6.2C as it stands today it would be the joint 18th mildest January in the CET series, which just goes to show how far above average it is.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There certainly have been a number of snowless Januarys over the past 24 years. The Januarys of 1989, 1990, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006 , 2008 and 2011 all passed without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country.

If you look back to the years from World War 2 to 1988, only the Januarys of 1948, 1949, 1957, 1964, 1969, 1974, 1975 and 1983 passed without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country, fewer in 40+ years than in the 24 years since 1988.

I think it goes even further than that, as I think only a handful of those Januarys were actually completely snowless across most of lowland Britain. 1989 and 1992 were certainly stark examples, but quite a number of the others had widespread (albeit short-lived and wet) snowfalls from brief polar maritime incursions. January 1990 for instance had widespread sleet and snow showers on the 24th and then a spell of heavy wet snow for the northern two-thirds of the country overnight 27th/28th.

We could quite easily find ourselves looking back at the most snowless January, taking lowland Britain as a whole, since 1992, if the possible easterlies at the end of the month come to nothing.

[Milhouse]

At the moment i'd say we will witness a 0.2c rise up until midweek then its all still up in the air whether we we will get a sharp fall or just a slight one. A fall of any sort at the end is now guaranteed.

Going by the GFS 12z i would say 5.4c after corrections. The UKMO would suggest nearer 6c.

[Aaron]

When people say most places they indeed mean most and not all, 2011 and 2008 for example both saw snow accumulation here, it's really as rare as hens teeth to see no snow in January here

[summer blizzard]

When people say most places they indeed mean most and not all, 2011 and 2008 for example both saw snow accumulation here, it's really as rare as hens teeth to see no snow in January here

I honestly cannot remember a snowless January or February.

[reef]

Hadley is 6.4C to the 22nd. Yesterday was 8.0C.

Today and tomorrow may see a small decrease, but then Wednesday looks mild again. So little movement overall over the next few days.

[damianslaw]

If the models were to verify as shown today, then a marked downward trend would occur from Thursday making a final figure nearer the 5 degree mark quite plausible. At this range I would saw something nearer 5.5 degrees is a good bet, with the upper limit being 6 degrees and the lower limit 5 degrees - so it may not necessarily end up being a very mild month just mild we shall see..

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.4 to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 6.1C. Minimum today is 1.3C while maxima should be around 9C so the CET should remain at 6.4C on tomorrows update.

The 06z GFS would then have it at

6.5C to the 25th (8.4)

6.4C to the 26th (4.5)

6.3C to the 27th (3.5)

6.2C to the 28th (3.9)

6.1C to the 29th (3.5)

6.0C to the 30th (3.0)

5.8C to the 31st (-0.4)

[Scorcher]

I personally can't see it ending up below 5.8C now, with 6C still a big possibility. I will be very surprised if the 31st comes in at -0.4C!

[Fozfoster]

I personally can't see it ending up below 5.8C now, with 6C still a big possibility. I will be very surprised if the 31st comes in at -0.4C!

I think thats mild (-4) i was looking for - 10 to get close to my CET. LOL.

[reef]

Hadley is 6.4C to the 25th. Yesterday was pretty mild again at 7.6C.

Today's min is 4.8C, so we'll likely still be on the same figure on tomorrow's update.

[TonyH]

Looks like high 5's then.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 6.3C today (Jan 1 - 27).

For comparison Climate UK (Manley) is on 6.1C on today's update so maybe not too much of a downward month end adjustment to come.

[summer blizzard]

6.4 to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 6.1C. Minimum today is 1.3C while maxima should be around 9C so the CET should remain at 6.4C on tomorrows update.

The 06z GFS would then have it at

6.5C to the 25th (8.4)

6.4C to the 26th (4.5)

6.3C to the 27th (3.5)

6.2C to the 28th (3.9)

6.1C to the 29th (3.5)

6.0C to the 30th (3.0)

5.8C to the 31st (-0.4)

Am i right in thinking that the last 3 days are likely to be colder than this calculation?

[TonyH]

Am i right in thinking that the last 3 days are likely to be colder than this calculation?

Hope so, for my 5.5c!

[damianslaw]

Oh well this cold spell has come too late from preventing a mild CET value for the month. At least it hasn't been a ridicuously mild month as I was beginning to think cold happen a couple of weeks ago.

We've now had 5 consecutively very mild months, exceptionally so in the case of October and November, but the tide is definately turning, and Feb should easily break the cycle - about time too!

[reef]

Hadley is 6.1C to the 29th. Yesterday was rather cold at 1.6C.

5.8C-6.0C now looks to be the landing ground before adjustments.

[Don]

Looks like my guess of 4.7C for this month is going to be around 1C too low. I would have a thought a final CET of 5.7C is most likely now.

EDIT Looking at it again probably more like 5.5C. Manley has us at 5.9C to the 29th.

Edited January 30, 2012 by Don

[summer blizzard]

5.6-5.7C is likely to be the Hadley finish.

When was the last day with a daily mean below 0C, today and tommorow must come very close.

[reef]

Today wont be anywhere near, the min temp is down as 0.0C so the mean will be well above freezing.