January CET

[SP1986]

A bit later but I'll go for 3.3C

1-12th = largely average temperatures

12-17th = High Pressure infuence, trending to cold frosty nights and cool days, perhaps inversions near the end of the period.

18th-26th = Some shots of very cold weather from the north, turning to the northeast by the end of the period.

26th to end of month = Recovering back to something nearer average and an Atlantic resurgence.

[Aceman]

3.3 for me, thanks

[Harve]

If January continues in the same vein as December, and yet GP et. al's forecasts do come into fruition, at the beginning of February, it could make for an interesting statistic for a large drop from January to February CET. I suspect that it's quite rare, as it seems as though it's difficult to develop sustained cold after early-mid February. There are examples such as March 2006, though I wouldn't count that as too cold, nor would I say that its preceding December / January was overly mild. I've also read people saying that the severest of the cold of winter 1946-1947 didn't begin till late January. While this is true, they often infer that the rest of the winter had rampant mild - it didn't. Having said that, with 15 days of sleet / snow falling, this December didn't have rampant mildness, either.

So, what I'm asking is, does anybody know the largest CET drop between those two months?

[A Winter's Tale]

Table of entries Jan 2012 - UPDATE 2ND JANUARY

___________________________

"Mayan you gonna be just fine."

8.0 .. Craig Evans

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5 ... warmest (1916)

7.4

7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)

7.2

7.1 ... fourth warmest (1934) ... Snow?Norfolk n chance,

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1934 (2007) ... Optimus Prime

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3 .. igloo

6.2 .. Cheeky_Monkey

6.1

6.0 .. Robbie Garrett

5.9 .. Scorcher

5.8 .. reef

5.7 .. Norrance, mark4

5.6 .. stewfox

5.5 .. TonyH, Styx, TimmyH

5.4 .. Kentish Man

5.3 .. Milhouse, virtualsphere

5.2 .. coram, Thundery wintry showers

5.1 .. Stargazer, sunlover, Paul T, Terminal Moraine, Stormmad26

5.0 .. The Pit, AtlanticFlamethrower, davehsug

4.9 .. feb1991blizzard, Duncan McAlister, A Winter's Tale

4.8 .. Jack Wales, DR Hosking

4.7 .. Steve B, Harve, Mr_Data, Don

4.6 .. DAVID SNOW, Bluebreezer54, max011293

4.5 .. Solar Sausage, Fozfoster

4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 -----...corrigan87

4.3 .. AderynCoch, trickydicky

4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 ----- ... syed2878

4.1 .. claret047, Koppite, Gavin D, Mark Bayley, JACKONE

4.0 .. Backtrack, Deep Snow

3.9 .. BornFromTheVoid, summer blizzard, Great Plum

3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----- ... Isolated Frost, Aaron, Midlands Ice Age, snow drift, godber

3.7 .. Tellow, sundog, Rollo, RainbowSnow

3.6

3.5 .. Kentish Kiwi, Gavin P, damianslaw, The watcher

3.4 .. s4lancia, 22nov10blast

3.3 .. SP1986, Aceman

3.2 .. --- average 1659-2011 ----- .... frozencanals

3.1 .. geoffw

3.0

2.9 .. Ferryhill Weather, ruzzi (snowboy), Stationary Front

2.8 .. BARRY, Snowstorm1

2.7.. Polar Maritme

2.6

2.5 .. Polar Gael

2.4 .. Ben_Cambs

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9 .. Roger J Smith

1.8 ..

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4 ... coldest past 24 yrs (2010)

1.3

1.2

1.1 .. Polar Continental

1.0

0.9

0.8 ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4 ... last subzero (1979)

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.9

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)

-1.1

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)

-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)

-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776)

-1.7

-1.8

-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)

-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest past 197 yrs (1963)

-2.2

-2.3

-2.4

-2.5

-2.6

-2.7

-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)

-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)

-3.1 ... coldest (1795)

-15 ... considered normal about 20,000 years ago (Craig Evans used to go -7)

____________________________________________________________________

So far, the members participating are - 85!

Around 59 members are going for CET somewhere between 3.7C and 6.0C indicating that most members are going for a month colder than December. 20 members are going for a CET colder than 3.7C. Around 5 members are going for a CET milder than that in December.

So all in all, it's looking quite optimistic!

Edited January 3, 2012 by reef
We saw the December summary the first time

[Alex]

I may be too late, sorry been away but if I can I will fo for 5.6.

[summer blizzard]

Ouch

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

9.9c to the 1st- one of the mildest new year days?

8.5C to the 2nd.

[damianslaw]

Ouch

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

9.9c to the 1st- one of the mildest new year days?

The first month of the last five have all been preety mild/exceptionally mild if I'm not mistaken. Oct 1st brought record warmth. I seem to recall early sept, nov and dec also started off preety mild for the time of year.. how long will this continue? mmm it will be firmly broken in February I suspect.

[reef]

Hadley is 7.8C to the 3rd.

Even now just three days into the month we would require a mean of 4.0C for the remaining days just to reach the 1981-2010 average.

[summer blizzard]

Hadley is 7.8C to the 3rd.

Even now just three days into the month we would require a mean of 4.0C for the remaining days just to reach the 1981-2010 average.

I would not worry too much right now, August 1st had a daily CET mean over 20C and yet we still ended up almost 1C below average.

I remain confident of my prediction actually think i may be a tad too high.

[Roger J Smith]

This has November 2010 written all over it, by the looks of the ECM output past two runs.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With a colder arctic region to feed off too.

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

Interesting couple of posts from Roger and BFTP.

I suspect Roger thinks a transition to much colder weather this month may come quicker than the models are currently suggesting....maybe.

I'll have to dig the extra oil radiator out from the garage - last winter it sat in our dining room from mid-November! Haven't got it in at all so far. In fact, the central heating's been clicking off mid-evening because it's been so mild here - garden at bottom of our road is seeing the daffodils come thru' already - unbelievable!

[Roger J Smith]

Not that much quicker, but remember in Nov 2010 the mean was about 10 C for the first week, it was still up around 7-8 C mid-month then it started to slide, the really cold air didn't even arrive until the 23rd or so, but it really bit hard into the CET. Same sort of table of entries then, same potential results.

Yes the arctic is colder but in anomaly terms the trend might be about the same. When I predicted 1.9 it was on the basis of a transition period 10th-15th and severe cold later. Five days of -5 C CET (absolute, not relative) will change 5.0 to 3.0 between 21st and 25th (just saying, not predicting). (100/20 to 75/25). Ten days of -5 would change it to 1.7 C.

We'll see if the shift is that strong. If it came on sooner and harder, then even PC would be too high. Mid-month 5.0 can go to zero by end of month with record cold in the last sixteen days. (as in 23 Nov to 8 Dec type cold).

[A Winter's Tale]

You seem pretty confident there RJS!

Good to see though.

[Bristawl Si]

Not that much quicker, but remember in Nov 2010 the mean was about 10 C for the first week, it was still up around 7-8 C mid-month then it started to slide, the really cold air didn't even arrive until the 23rd or so, but it really bit hard into the CET. Same sort of table of entries then, same potential results.

Yes the arctic is colder but in anomaly terms the trend might be about the same. When I predicted 1.9 it was on the basis of a transition period 10th-15th and severe cold later. Five days of -5 C CET (absolute, not relative) will change 5.0 to 3.0 between 21st and 25th (just saying, not predicting). (100/20 to 75/25). Ten days of -5 would change it to 1.7 C.

We'll see if the shift is that strong. If it came on sooner and harder, then even PC would be too high. Mid-month 5.0 can go to zero by end of month with record cold in the last sixteen days. (as in 23 Nov to 8 Dec type cold).

Cheers - understand where you're coming from now - apologies for misinterpretation.

Regards BB

[Interitus]

Absolute -5C CET?

Bearing in mind that last winter did well to get four days of -5C CET - and there were only five -5C days in the whole of 1962-3 ....we are not going to get five days of -5C let alone ten days, in the last ten days of this month.

[coram]

Happy with my prediction of 5.2 at the moment. Despite a flurry of excitement on the model thread, there is no real sign of any significant cold. Lots of the predictions on here seem to have been influenced by GP's forecast for a cold spell in the second half of January, but for me until the Met office start going for a cool down I remain unconvinced.

[Milhouse]

And who's to say if the cold does arrive it will only be temporary and not long lasting. Personally I could do with minimal cold if I am going to be in with a shout because as we witnessed in November 2010 rapid falls can happen even in the last week.

[reef]

Hadley is 7.7C to the 4th. Yesterday was very mild again at 7.3C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 5.4 while maxima were around 10C, so 7.7 again tomorrow is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.3C to the 6th (5.0)

7.2C to the 7th (7.0)

7.3C to the 8th (7.9)

7.3C to the 9th (7.4)

7.2C to the 10th (5.8]

7.4C to the 11th (10.1)

7.2C to the 12th (5.0)

A very mild first 3rd looking likely at this stage. Above 6C by mid-month very likely also.

Edited January 5, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[damianslaw]

Mmmm the first half of the month is looking a bit milder than I anticipated making it more difficult I suspect to record a below average month - but the CET should fall markedly during the third week.

[reef]

Hadley is on 7.6C to the 5th.

Even though we're only five days in the remaining 26 days need to record a mean of 3.8C to reach the 1981-2010 average.

[leicsnow]

Hadley is on 7.6C to the 5th.

Even though we're only five days in the remaining 26 days need to record a mean of 3.8C to reach the 1981-2010 average.

What is the 1981-2010 average? I know the 1971-2000 is 4.1.

[reef]

What is the 1981-2010 average? I know the 1971-2000 is 4.1.

The 1981-2010 average is 4.4C. The 1971-2000 average was 4.2C.

[leicsnow]

The 1981-2010 average is 4.4C. The 1971-2000 average was 4.2C.

Where do you get this data?