January CET

[Roger J Smith]

It's in the table of entries and I worked them out from my data files. Those data files can be accessed at:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet

[reef]

Hadley is 7.4C to the 6th. Yesterday was 6.3C.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[summer blizzard]

I must accept that even with the second half of the month looking a lot cooler the CET is unlikely to drop below average.

At the moment i would then say that 4.4-5.4 is looking the most likely, not too far from average but on the warm side.

It seems the AO analogues have beaten us this month, looking at the 12 November-December periods which were both positive with increasing amplitude, just 2/12 saw a -AO the following January which of course indicates a warmer than average month for the UK. 8/12 did however see a -AO in February.

[reef]

I must accept that even with the second half of the month looking a lot cooler the CET is unlikely to drop below average.

At the moment i would then say that 4.4-5.4 is looking the most likely, not too far from average but on the warm side.

It seems the AO analogues have beaten us this month, looking at the 12 November-December periods which were both positive with increasing amplitude, just 2/12 saw a -AO the following January which of course indicates a warmer than average month for the UK. 8/12 did however see a -AO in February.

Its likely the second half of the month will be cooler than the first as its looking very mild indeed until mid-month, however I think people are jumping the gun in suggesting there will be a major correction. At the moment theres nothing very cold in the reliable timeframe and at that sort of range (7 days and beyond) the models can change wildly.

If we get to mid-month with a CET in the 6.5C-7.0C range it is going to be difficult for us to drop even to average by the end. It can and has happened but it would be a hell of a switcharound.

[Scorcher]

Its likely the second half of the month will be cooler than the first as its looking very mild indeed until mid-month, however I think people are jumping the gun in suggesting there will be a major correction. At the moment theres nothing very cold in the reliable timeframe and at that sort of range (7 days and beyond) the models can change wildly.

If we get to mid-month with a CET in the 6.5C-7.0C range it is going to be difficult for us to drop even to average by the end. It can and has happened but it would be a hell of a switcharound.

Completely agree, I always find this is the general attitude in winter- people assuming that the CET is going to drop dramatically when there is no evidence that the 2nd half of the month is going to be cold. I think it's hopeful to even say a CET of 4.4-5.4C is 'likely' as we are well above that at the moment and I can't actually see the CET dropping too much before mid month.

[kev238]

Yes- i precict the CET will be around 6.9 to 7 degrees by mid month considering daytime temperatures in the CET zone are likely to be around ten degrees for much of the next week and night time temperatures not dropping much below 3 or 4 degrees.

That would mean a very impressive positive anomaly for the first half of January which would require a very cold second half to get us down to average.

I would also be interested to know what the mildest 16th Dec- 15th Jan period ever is when you consider the 2nd half of December was 6.8 and we are running at arounf 7.2 for the first 7 days of January, with little downward correction likely in the next five days or so.....

[leicsnow]

3.7

Going for 5.5 now

[TonyH]

Bit late though

[Kentish Man]

Going for 5.5 now

I wouldn't recommend doing this. After 8 days you will receive such a hefty penalty in the CET competition that you will probably be better off sticking with your original 3.7C. Added to which if we do encounter very cold continental air later in the month your original guess may not be that far out despite the very mild start.

[damianslaw]

Yes- i precict the CET will be around 6.9 to 7 degrees by mid month considering daytime temperatures in the CET zone are likely to be around ten degrees for much of the next week and night time temperatures not dropping much below 3 or 4 degrees.

That would mean a very impressive positive anomaly for the first half of January which would require a very cold second half to get us down to average.

I would also be interested to know what the mildest 16th Dec- 15th Jan period ever is when you consider the 2nd half of December was 6.8 and we are running at arounf 7.2 for the first 7 days of January, with little downward correction likely in the next five days or so.....

I suspect 1988 and 1989 saw impressively mild CET's for said period. Other years with very mild mid dec-mid Jan periods include 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2006 and 2007.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley update - a balmy 7.4C (Jan 1 - 8 )

Edited January 9, 2012 by Kentish Man

[Scorcher]

Possibly another rise after today as well with such a mild night and more very mild day time temperatures across the CET zone.

[Milhouse]

Another huge positive anomaly for the first week of the month. We've become quite used to that in recent months.

[The PIT]

Sleep walking into a mild winter at the moment. Council will have large piles of grit left after this year and will struggle to justify the expense for future stock piles. My punt for 5c is looking rather silly again.

[SP1986]

It will almost certainly drop below 6C by months end.. 4-5C looking likely, but could be even lower.

[reef]

Hadley is 7.6C to the 9th.

3.1C now required for the month to finish on the 1981-2010 average of 4.4C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like we'll be on 7.6C again tomorrow. After that, the 06z would have the CET at

7.8C to the 11th (8.9)

7.9C to the 12th (9.5)

7.5C to the 13th (3.2)

7.2C to the 14th (2.6)

6.8C to the 15th (1.4)

6.4C to the 16th (0.8]

6.3C to the 17th (3.5)

[damianslaw]

Looks like we'll be on 7.6C again tomorrow. After that, the 06z would have the CET at

7.8C to the 11th (8.9)

7.9C to the 12th (9.5)

7.5C to the 13th (3.2)

7.2C to the 14th (2.6)

6.8C to the 15th (1.4)

6.4C to the 16th (0.8]

6.3C to the 17th (3.5)

Significant drop will occur from Friday largely thanks to widespread sub zero CET nightime values - some preety cold nights ahead on Friday, Sat and probably Sunday especially for the CET zone with maxima struggling to get above 5 degrees - nothing exceptional but enough to pull the CET down to at least 6 degrees by early next week.

I've said the core of winter cold this year will be from mid Jan to mid Feb, but the very mild first 12 days will make it very difficult to record a below average CET - somewhere around the 4 degree mark could be a good bet at this stage.

[Milhouse]

Significant drop will occur from Friday largely thanks to widespread sub zero CET nightime values - some preety cold nights ahead on Friday, Sat and probably Sunday especially for the CET zone with maxima struggling to get above 5 degrees - nothing exceptional but enough to pull the CET down to at least 6 degrees by early next week.

I've said the core of winter cold this year will be from mid Jan to mid Feb, but the very mild first 12 days will make it very difficult to record a below average CET - somewhere around the 4 degree mark could be a good bet at this stage.

Say we are 6.3c to the 17th going by the 06z that means that to get to 4c we need the last 14 days to average just 1.2c. Its looking impossible at this stage with the Atlantic set to roar back in limiting nightime frost potential. I'd say more like 5c judging by the models at the moment. That would be achieved with the last 14 days averaging 3.4c(providing we are 6.3c to the 17th)

[J10]

Going for 5.5 now

I wouldn't recommend doing this. After 8 days you will receive such a hefty penalty in the CET competition that you will probably be better off sticking with your original 3.7C. Added to which if we do encounter very cold continental air later in the month your original guess may not be that far out despite the very mild start.

A new rule was brought in this year with a 3 day limit, after a public vote, so the original 3.7c prediction stands.

[leicsnow]

My gut feeling is that after the brief cool spell this weekend with highs of around 3c, it will revert to mild again for the remainder of the month at least but not as mild as it has been, with highs of around 8 or 9c instead of 11 or 12c. That would make the CET 6c+.

Hope I'm wrong though.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Tellow

[Scorcher]

I would put money on the CET finishing above 5C and I believe it's more likely to finish above 6C than below 5C. This cooler spell is likely to be short-lived and it will probably be normal service resumed by early next week with the Atlantic taking over again.

[kold weather]

Hmmmm interesting how 12hrs can shift what is expected again. The 06z GFS and the ECM 00z run would both deliver a period of pretty sustained cold.

We are starting from a very high baseline though so it's going to be very difficult to get below average from here but there is a possiblity that we do get some very cold weather in at some point in the next 2 weeks which will make a difference.

[reef]

Another increase today. Hadley is now on 7.7C to the 11th.

Tomorrow will see another small rise as today's min is down as 7.8C, but that could well be the peak point of the month as it looks much cooler for the next few days after.

[Optimus Prime]

I'm happy with my 7.0c prediction. It may well turn colder but I suspect that really mild stuff wqon't be too far away.