January CET

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

So lets see, if January comes in at +1.0 above average it will be the 5th consecutive month to do so! Anyone able to say whether this has happened before?

A big raspberry to all the global warming conspiracists out there.

Remember local sea temperature (north sea, irish sea, channel) is affected by cycles. If you're sitting in a warm bath then you are going to remain, on average, that bit warmer when someone opens the bathroom door and lets all the cold air in than if the same happens when the bath is cold.

Winter is my worst time for guessing. I think I predicted 5.0c this month. If it is anywhere close it will be a first for me!

Edited January 16, 2012 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[leicsnow]

If the 0z GFS verifies, we could be looking at a CET in the 7 range.

[Thundery wintry showers]

So lets see, if January comes in at +1.0 above average it will be the 5th consecutive month to do so! Anyone able to say whether this has happened before?

A big raspberry to all the global warming conspiracists out there.

It happened in 1999- every month from January to May inclusive was 1.5 to 1.7C above the 1961-90 average, and a degree or more up on the 1971-2000 average.

[Weather-history]

We haven't had a really cold second half to January since 1985 I believe.

Even then the second half of January 1985 was milder than the first half. The really cold spell ended in the south on the 20th. The second half of January 1985 had a CET of 1.9C, so not especially cold.

I think the last sub-zero second half to January was 1979

Edited January 17, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Harve]

So lets see, if January comes in at +1.0 above average it will be the 5th consecutive month to do so! Anyone able to say whether this has happened before?

A big raspberry to all the global warming conspiracists out there.

I fully believe in global warming, and yet I don't think this is directly related to it. It does, however, make such occurrences far more likely. Five consecutive warm months is due to synoptics, which are determined by climate in general, which can be influenced.

[Styx]

It happened in 1999- every month from January to May inclusive was 1.5 to 1.7C above the 1961-90 average, and a degree or more up on the 1971-2000 average.

That is interesting thanks for that. I wonder whether that stretch will be repeated. It is disappointing and troubling in a broader context, anomolies for local climatic conditions aside.

( By the way, your blog entries, very smart and engaging to read )

[summer blizzard]

September 2006-January 2007 saw a stretch of very mild months.

[Kentish Man]

Today's update has the Hadley CET on 6.2C (Jan 1 - 17)

[Scorcher]

I'm pretty happy with my 5.9C at the moment- it could start to creep back up towards 7.0C with the next few days looking mild, possibly very mild in the south. 13C here today- I've lost count of the number of 12C+ days here so far this winter. I can't really remember a winter with so many exceptionally mild days.

[TonyH]

Most unlikely that it will get below 5c, could end up pushing 6c.

[leicsnow]

Could end up pushing 7c...

[damianslaw]

Still believe a value inbetween 5 and 6 degrees is more likely than 6 and 7 degrees with every chance of being quite close to 5 degrees.

[leicsnow]

If the rest of the month is going to be mild, I'd rather it be very mild and make for an exceptional 7c CET

That said, GFS 18z is looking better

Edited January 18, 2012 by Tellow

[reef]

Hadley is 6.1C to the 18th. Yesterday came in at 5.0C.

[kev238]

I don't think there is going to be too much damage to the cet over next five or so days so around six degrees as we enter final week of the month.

From that point on, very difficult to call although I favour a reasonably chilly final week so closer to five than six degrees at the moment.

It seems like the month will be falling into the mild category again, even if there is a colder end!

This could end up being a pretty mild and non descript winter if things continue in a similar vein for a few more weeks.

I wonder whether it could be completely snowless like some of the bad old winters from the past twenty years or so!?

[damianslaw]

I don't think there is going to be too much damage to the cet over next five or so days so around six degrees as we enter final week of the month.

From that point on, very difficult to call although I favour a reasonably chilly final week so closer to five than six degrees at the moment.

It seems like the month will be falling into the mild category again, even if there is a colder end!

This could end up being a pretty mild and non descript winter if things continue in a similar vein for a few more weeks.

I wonder whether it could be completely snowless like some of the bad old winters from the past twenty years or so!?

I hold faith Feb will deliver some much needed snow and much colder weather - you can rely on Feb much more than Dec and Jan for snow and cold weather and if anything as the month wears on the chances of northerly and easterly airstreams increases... yes the sun is stronger by then, but the SST's arctic and continent aren't..

[Scorcher]

If you look at recent years though, February has actually delivered less in the way of cold and snow than January and December. 2008 and 2011 in particular stick out as two very mild recent Februarys.

[leicsnow]

I think the CET really depends on how the rest of the month plays out (well obviously), since there is a considerable degree of uncertainty. I think if the METO's "mild option" plays out it really could be close to 7, if the "cold option" plays out it could be down close to 5. At this point, I would be really surprised if the CET ended up below 5, and would be equally surprised to see the winter come out with an overall CET of less than 4.

Edited January 21, 2012 by Tellow

[kev238]

I think the cold option is only due around twenty ninth of this month, so any impact would be minimal on this months cet, if it did occur..

Feb is looking a very difficult month to predict.. It hasn't delivered much in recent years, although memory suggests feb 2009 had a pretty snowy week for the east midlands area!

[Froze were the Days]

If you look at recent years though, February has actually delivered less in the way of cold and snow than January and December. 2008 and 2011 in particular stick out as two very mild recent Februarys.

To true, at times February has been to me part winter part start of spring, another exceptionally mild Feb that springs to mind I think was 2002, about 3c above average. We've had alot of mild febs over the last 14/15 years.

[TonyH]

January has been like the start of Spring (not that we have had a Winter so far), what with the birds singing, various flowers and even Daffs out!

Edited January 21, 2012 by TonyH

[Scorcher]

Yes it almost seems like everything has shifted forward in recent years with spring seemingly arriving in February or even earlier (this year!) and then some very warm springs indeed- we haven't had a really cool April for some time. The 2 warmest Aprils on record have occurred in the last 5 years and 2009 was also a very warm one!

[Weather-history]

If you look at recent years though, February has actually delivered less in the way of cold and snow than January and December. 2008 and 2011 in particular stick out as two very mild recent Februarys.

Hmmm, has it?

February 2011 was very mild but February 2009 and 2010 had cold wintry episodes, February 2008 was mild but February 2007 delivered the main snow event of that winter to the south. The main wintry spell of winter 2004-05 was late February-early March. Winter 2005-06 was also late February -early March although much more into March than with the previous year.

2003-04 also had a late February cold spell.

I think January has suffered from lack of wintriness more so that the other two months. I think the pecking order is December, February and then January in decreasing degrees of wintriness. The last 3 Januarys have been on the cold side but only 2010 had any degree of snow. January 2009 and 2011 were not exactly snowy.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Hmmm, has it?

February 2011 was very mild but February 2009 and 2010 had cold wintry episodes, February 2008 was mild but February 2007 delivered the main snow event of that winter to the south. The main wintry spell of winter 2004-05 was late February-early March. Winter 2005-06 was also late February -early March although much more into March than with the previous year.

2003-04 also had a late February cold spell.

I think January has suffered from lack of wintriness more so that the other two months. I think the pecking order is December, February and then January in decreasing degrees of wintriness. The last 3 Januarys have been on the cold side but only 2010 had any degree of snow. January 2009 and 2011 were not exactly snowy.

January 2011 saw temperatures close to average, or on the cool side of the current seasonal average, and any cold spells were due to mid-latituide Rex Blocks and never deep cold Arctic air. Jan 2009 was actually a fairly cold month overall and most of the cold was under HP in the first third, although I do believe some places saw a little snowfall around the 5th of that month which persisted in a few places, but as Kevin rightly says, snowfall wasn't widespread by any means. There were some episodes of cold zonality, a rarity in the last 20+ years, around the 19th / 20th Jan 2009, when some higher parts became snow covered.

It is certainly true that January has become far less snowy since 1988 than it used to be before then. Since World War 2, the Januarys of 1947, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986, and 1987 all produced more significant snow events than any January since 1988 has, apart from 2010. The Januarys of 1953, 1959, 1962, 1967, 1970, 1972, and 1980 also produced snow events that would rival the best events in the post 1988 era, apart from 2010.

All this shows that, since 1988, only Jan 2010 has seen any degree of snow for most parts of the country. If I rightly think, possibly the best January snow events since 1988, after 2010, were probably in late Jan 1996, when if I recall snow fell widely from easterly winds around the 26th / 27th of that month which lay on the ground in a number of areas until the month's end. Other than this, there was a very local but major snow event further north in late Jan 1995, and eastern parts saw snow in the early part of Jan 1997.

There certainly have been a number of snowless Januarys over the past 24 years. The Januarys of 1989, 1990, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006 , 2008 and 2011 all passed without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country.

If you look back to the years from World War 2 to 1988, only the Januarys of 1948, 1949, 1957, 1964, 1969, 1974, 1975 and 1983 passed without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country, fewer in 40+ years than in the 24 years since 1988.

[reef]

I think January has suffered from lack of wintriness more so that the other two months. I think the pecking order is December, February and then January in decreasing degrees of wintriness. The last 3 Januarys have been on the cold side but only 2010 had any degree of snow. January 2009 and 2011 were not exactly snowy.

I agree with this, January has definitely seen an overall lack of wintry weather on average compared to the other winter months. Certainly the period 1987-2011 shows this very well:

Mean Number of days with snow falling in Hedon (1987-2011):

December: 3.6

January: 3.5

February: 5.9

March: 3.2

Days with snow lying at 0900:

December: 2.5

January: 1.7

February: 2.0

March: 0.8

It should also be noted that in the last 24 years, only three January days have recorded minima below -3.3C here (less than March) and there hasnt been an ice day in the month since 1992.