Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Snowmadsam]

I know this is out of topic, but I would like to say a BIG thank you to EVERYONE on the Netweather Forum , may I wish you all a very happy new year and also some better charts on the range of models

[The Northern Ramper]

All that chart suggests is a mid latitude high.With an intense PV to the NW i would imagine the only place for that high is down down deeper and down.

And yet the trend of it pushing up into the vortex continues on the 18z for the same day, January 13th. Pushing it down into Western Europe where we need it if we get an Easterly further on.

If you can find such charts, why not?!

I think that's pretty much what we already have.

All we're looking for, is that if someone posts or links to something, make it salient and factual, and don't do it just to provoke a reaction. Sometimes it's a bit dubious but we're not daft and can normally tell the difference.

How useless would the thread be if everyone posted a chart with (found this for coldies) underneath.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Snow Guy

[cyclonic happiness]

Happy new year to all my old chums here on netweather, and may the model watching of this new year make us realise it's not the end of the world!

God bless us!...............everyone!

[Snowstorm1]

Happy New Year To Everyone On Netweather From Mildies To Coldies Were All Human And Share A Passion For The Weather

[shedhead]

The hour is fast approaching. Many thanks to all for the awsome conjective post's. I would like to wish happy and model active new year to all. However i would like to wish a special happy new year's to.....BFTP Real top guy and an awsome forecaster(HE NEEDS TO BE PAID),JH Love your middle ground,Open mind and shear knowledge is your fortay.GP Well tried to PM but no such luck,You are right up there amongst the best,Phil.n.warks..What a forum leader and poster,Chinoooooo,Well what can i say...Keep up the awsome work.Polar Low, Winter is coming for you mate...(SHE WANTS YOU)..Then there is OON well im sure you are a nice person really, I know you get fed up with (some real dire in -ya face boring POST'S,But hey its the weather(HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU),Steve Murr....Love you man,Your mine kind of guy..(PEACE).RJS Well on the money springs to mind,Love your post's. Yes the hour has now fast gone,,,Hate key boards they are not (predictive) to thought.Anyway happy new year guys and gal's 2012 could be the (ACTIVE THREAD). Oh i forgot IAN BROWN...YES well happy new year.

SL....JASON.

Oh dear, BFTP has been at the sherry....

[feb1991blizzard]

Happy new year to everyone on here and lets hope we start to see some signs soon, i think if we are to get a potent cold spell, its going to be a long road and not a quick fix, we will have many ups and downs along the way and it could be a very late blast, so everyone aboard the siberian express for a roller coaster ride.

Edited January 1, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Cloud 10]

Happy new year all!

[Jason T]

Oh dear, BFTP has been at the sherry....

Well i don't blame him ,I would be. Cant believe less than 5 mins in to new year and the MILD train is (STILL) Running,.....However Shedhead, Change's are showing. The end result is that any pattern can and will not last,Change's will take place and sometime's can be severe 1985/86...Take a peek. May not be to script,But holds potentiall.

Edited January 1, 2012 by silver line

[SP1986]

One place that is really getting the full force of cold winter synoptic setups is Italy, and the GFS shows an interesting scenario where Italy could be the place where the cold continually channels into.

Some colder synoptics showing up recenty but to my mind, they are typical British winter synoptics (short lived northerlies, high pressure topplers, followed by temporary Atlantic onslaught), a familiar sight which graced us throughout the early 2000's

[weather_it_will]

Maybe 2013 GFS will show some true cold winter weather, but there is nothing in the 18z.

Good news for people paying energy bills.

[Chris D]

Yep, GFS continues to show a pretty ordinary pattern all the way through with HP to the south, except for the far reaches of FI (+300hrs) on the 18z run where pressure builds to the west to allow a northerly outbreak. Potentially a trend which could increase in weeks to come.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3127.png

ECM 12z also agrees with high pressure staying to the south throughout, apart from the odd NW'erly PM incursion bringing wintry showers to the NW.

But, not all boring - keep tabs on Tuesday still, with severe gales still a possibility. Although the GFS 18z "downgrades" the windspeeds for W Scot, ECM 12z keeps them so, along with widespread gales to western UK before the front moves through, the winds afterwards are likely to still be stronger than this across Scotland.

Happy new year everyone!!! :smilz38: I've had a drink as well, do you think it's a good model anaylsis? lol

Edited January 1, 2012 by chris93

[stewfox]

Some GEFS members trending ever so slightly nearer 850hpa -10 mark toward end, its a painstaking process but even the op hits -10 for west yorkshire in fi as well

Posted in 2011 and amended 2012 nice

[syed2878]

A happy new year to every1 at net weather and happy model watching in 2012. Keep up the excelent work thruout 2012 ladies and gents.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

May I take this opportunity to list some of the highlights of 2011's model discussion thread.

There we go, that about sums it up.

Happy New Year.

[Chris D]

May I take this opportunity to list some of the highlights of 2011's model discussion thread.

There we go, that about sums it up.

Happy New Year.

Oh dear lol :smiliz64:

[Harps]

I believe that post was something we call a 'joke'.

A happy new year to all, haven't posted all that much but have been reading this forum all year with interest

This thread could really use a little more model discussion and a lot less snow craving but an entertaining one nonetheless. Anyway time for bed I think!

[winterof79]

Happy New Year.ECM happy to sustain low heights over the Med at 240z.GFS having none of that and pushes the AH east to distinguish them.In the nearer time frame some fun and games for N/W england and Western parts of Scotland to come in the form of snow, high winds and copious amounts of rain.Thats winter.

Edited January 1, 2012 by winterof79

[Great Plum]

With attitudes like that conveyed from the moderating team alone, isn't it a wonder this thread gets so heated?

Snip

Oh do give it a rest... OON is known for his acerbic wit and frankly, if I'd had to moderate this forum over the past year, my opinion would equal his. Cut the mods some slack this year one and all please!

Back to the models...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

A cool easterly being shown in FI on the 0z ECM... I wonder how this will sit in the de Bilt ensembles...

GFS is less conducive to such fare but would at least bring some frost!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

It loses the intensity of the northerly in FI but it's still there... Mostly at the milder end of the ensembles too!

[Roger J Smith]

I would imagine that many will be doing double or triple takes at the ECM given the date ... I was watching it at a very civilized hour here and not quite sure I was on the right planet. The zonality disappears down a rabbit hole around 144-168h and the run finishes with the early suggestions of a blocking high. This may prove either premature or lacking in detail once the atmosphere finishes processing the strong energy max now seemingly locked in for Tuesday (morning).

Happy New Year too all, I am not quite there yet (11:45 pm).

[Iceberg]

Happy new year.

ECM is believable, the energy of the PV is shown to locate to Canada, GFS does a similar thing this morning but not until the very end of the run T300+ so we don't see the results of the HP cell setting up and the cold ait coming from the east.

I think more than anything its a question of timing, GFS transfers the PV after an extra warm wave break though at 30hpa.

GFS is probably more correct in it's timing but we might eventually be seeing signs of the winter going the way it should.

[Cymro]

I phone delete!

Edited January 1, 2012 by chionomaniac

[nick sussex]

Happy New Year all

I see the mice have got into the ECM computer this morning!

Not a great deal of support in the ensemble maps for its operational run at 168hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

I'm a bit dubious of the ECM solution this morning, and even if it did verify theres still too much energy running to the north and any cold would probably end up in mainland Europe.

[Cloud 10]

I would imagine that many will be doing double or triple takes at the ECM given the date ... I was watching it at a very civilized hour here and not quite sure I was on the right planet. The zonality disappears down a rabbit hole around 144-168h and the run finishes with the early suggestions of a blocking high. This may prove either premature or lacking in detail once the atmosphere finishes processing the strong energy max now seemingly locked in for Tuesday (morning).

Happy New Year too all, I am not quite there yet (11:45 pm).

The ECM looks to be following the script up to +168.

But then tears it up 24hrs later!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all and Happy New Year,

Yes, as stated above, ECM 00z has come up with a very interesting run, although as Nick states, not much support from its ensemble members.

Mind you, GFS ensembles are a bit of a dogs dinner!

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120101/00/t850London.png

Regards,

Tom

[Glacier Point]

GFS ensembles indicate the majority of members for the AO to be positive on the 10th January but majority neutral or negative by 15th January. The NAO ensembles mirror this trend.

Height rises in Scandinavia are not lead dependent on the AO or NAO being negative however falling indices can often lead to this type of set up. The ECM is always worth a look when it picks out a new evolution at t168 however I suspect given the weighting for height rises in the Atlantic, this might be an evolution too quick. We shouldn't overlook the evolution t72 - t122 where the ECM continues to sharpen the trough and have it further west than the GFS, introducing lower 850 values and heights further west into Europe.

Interestingly, if the AO were to strike negative by mid January, that would be in line with research suggesting the longevity of strong vortex events to be around 60 days.

Edited January 1, 2012 by Glacier Point