Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[SnowObsessor90]

Same old rubbish really, the silence yet again says it all.

Yet another outlier perhaps?

Edited December 31, 2011 by Anonymous21

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Same old rubbish really which explains the silence.

Yet another outlier perhaps?

GFS 12z builds the Azrs high towards the UK but it isn;t going to get past mid latitudes with the jet as intense as it is.

As per the meto extended outlook the best we can hope for is a 'UK high' .

I strongly suspect anyone touting for a change mid month will be pushing back the timing of a posible change to back end of the month very soon.

[phil nw.]

In addition to that, would it be possible to ask posters not to quote messages that contain a number of images - that also introduces unnecessary clutter.

I would hope that all reasonable posters would take that point as part of my request.

I don`t want to make an issue of this and would not want to stop or discourage members posting images--just thought it was something to think about.

Let`s leave things at that and keep on topic now--thanks people.

[Backtrack]

A quick scan of the Ensemble run highlights that the GFS is yet again another outlier.

Ensembles follow a more likely scenario of a cooler trend, and it surely can't be long until the operational follows suit..

Someone really needs to give this model a kick.

Edited December 31, 2011 by phil n.warks.
Quoted post was deleted

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A quick scan of the Ensemble run highlights that the GFS is yet again another outlier.

Ensembles follow a more likely scenario of a cooler trend, and it surely can't be long until the operational follows suit..

Someone really needs to give this model a kick.

ensembles are out already???

[SMU]

I feel optimism returning after a couple of horrid model days- profiles over the pole are getting better & better- however as it stands its still over 10 days away & sadly its a long waiting game ...

still looking around the 10th-13th though-

Steve

[Summer Sun]

GFS in FI the best I can find for cold fans is this,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3002.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3122.png

Other than that it's high pressure all the way in FI.

[bluearmy]

ensembles are out already???

only to T168. maybe Backtrack also knows the winner of the 5-30 !!

fwiw, the gfs op splits the vortex in fi but again in the wrong place for nw europe to go cold before the final third of the month. all good trends though. will be looking at the parallel ens to see what they do with the canadian vortex. the 12z rebuilt it strongly and will be tough to get to cold with that. (not impossiible though)

the GEFS are less exciting than the 06z set. the p/v remains more solid over the polar regions and as a result, there are far less arctic highs on view. this was the case yesterday aswell. still trending for a split over the other side of the pole due to the persistent aleutian ridging.

Edited December 31, 2011 by bluearmy

[IDO]

GFS back on course again for HP dominated setup till end FI, ad infinitum. 06z, as suspected, false dawn. Average temps with any cool zonal even missing Scotland, apart for a 48 hour period. GFS as of 16th Jan still has the cold pool of air over our part of the NH and this appears to be even more entrenched. Any PV split doesn't look like it will have short term effects for the UK. As poor as we have seen and in line with all the pro-forecasters ie "no cold is expected in January". I was surprised when the 06z run was treated as the harbinger of winter by some members as it was late in FI and was a one off (at the time, and remains so). This run may turn out to be a mild outlier but even then the best we can get is the Jetstream on a lower latitude. We need things to change shortly in FI or many amongst us are going to be quashing hopes for early Feb.

Interesting Simon Keeling has plumped for the GFS as the likely way forward; he believes such a strong Jetstream will hamper any likely change in patterns. Looking at the Jetstream at the end of the GFS, it looks as strong as it has been all winter and it arcs in from mid (mild) USA.

Also excellent post from Daniel Smith:

http://ukweather.wor...anuary-outlook/

As poor as most other forecasts.

Edited December 31, 2011 by i'm dreaming of...

[Snowy Easterly]

GFS in FI the best I can find for cold fans is this,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3002.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3122.png

Other than that it's high pressure all the way in FI.

Why do u always have to post these distant FI charts of High pressure ?

This chart is of more concern atm

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-72.png?12

[Summer Sun]

Why do u always have to post these distant FI charts of High pressure ?

This chart is of more concern atm

http://176.31.229.22...gfs-0-72.png?12

If you care to look at those charts they show a northerly with a chance of snow for some.

[cooling climate]

The UKMO model does show better heights over the Arctic

out to t 144. Lets see if the ECM carries on its theme from

this morning and backs up the UKMO model.

[Snowy Easterly]

If you care to look at those charts they show a northerly with a chance of snow for some.

the GFS shows only the briefest of northerlys no true cold fan will get exicted about this run

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-300.png?12

Edited December 31, 2011 by Snowy Easterly

[Osbourne One-Nil]

But this isn't the hunt for cold thread....this is the model discussion thread, so to be fair to Gavin, he is on topic.

[The Northern Ramper]

Anyhow the models, I am not disappointed by the 12z run, although chartwise it is not as progressive as the 6z it still shows a trend for the vortex to be under threat with our high trying to push north.

FI is supposed to be about trends and that is two consecutive runs now around Jan 13th suggesting this.

Oh and if somebody would tell me how to do a thumbnail i would.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Paul
Removed the personal attack

[Jason M]

GFS back on course again for HP dominated setup till end FI, ad infinitum. 06z, as suspected, false dawn. Average temps with any cool zonal even missing Scotland, apart for a 48 hour period. GFS as of 16th Jan still has the cold pool of air over our part of the NH and this appears to be even more entrenched. Any PV split doesn't look like it will have short term effects for the UK. As poor as we have seen and in line with all the pro-forecasters ie "no cold is expected in January". I was surprised when the 06z run was treated as the harbinger of winter by some members as it was late in FI and was a one off (at the time, and remains so). This run may turn out to be a mild outlier but even then the best we can get is the Jetstream on a lower latitude. We need things to change shortly in FI or many amongst us are going to be quashing hopes for early Feb.

Interesting Simon Keeling has plumped for the GFS as the likely way forward; he believes such a strong Jetstream will hamper any likely change in patterns. Looking at the Jetstream at the end of the GFS, it looks as strong as it has been all winter and it arcs in from mid (mild) USA.

Also excellent post from Daniel Smith:

http://ukweather.wor...anuary-outlook/

As poor as most other forecasts.

I don't think anyone said the 06Z was the harbinger of Winter. For what its worth I think we will end up with the high sat smack over the top of us with Feb heralding an early spring, but... the last few runs have at least shown that were still in the game even if were 3-0 down with 20 minutes to play

That there is some difference now in the later ensembles illustrates that come mid month a change is possible, albeit odds against IMO.

Jason

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Anyhow the models, I am not disappointed by the 12z run, although chartwise it is not as progressive as the 6z it still shows a trend for the vortex to be under threat with our high trying to push north.

FI is supposed to be about trends and that is two consecutive runs now around Jan 13th suggesting this.

Oh and if somebody would tell me how to do a thumbnail i would.

All that chart suggests is a mid latitude high.With an intense PV to the NW i would imagine the only place for that high is down down deeper and down.

[Cloud 10]

Anyhow the models, I am not disappointed by the 12z run, although chartwise it is not as progressive as the 6z it still shows a trend for the vortex to be under threat with our high trying to push north.

FI is supposed to be about trends and that is two consecutive runs now around Jan 13th suggesting this.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...312/npsh500.png even better!

Oh and if somebody would tell me how to do a thumbnail i would.

right click with mouse>copy image URL>paste into post

Edited December 31, 2011 by Cloud 10

[bluearmy]

wow you're a tough audience. a week ago (xmas eve remember), i was having a hard time trying to convince you all that a pattern change was on the way because it wasnt showing on the gfs op. now we see many ens members, 4 times a day, splitting the vortex, churning out arctic highs etc etc. of course these runs are still post T200 (they would have to be since xmas was only a week ago and the signs were hardly showing then at T384). if i had posted last saturday that by this weekend you'd be seeing the hemispheric ens we are doing you would have called me 'nuts'. now perspective fellas. no sign of a cold spell for nw europe (yet) but all this tosh about winters finished etc is just garbage. (and please stop looking at the north atlantic picture and commenting it looks poor - there's a big world out there and the shin bone is connected to the head - sort of)

Edited December 31, 2011 by bluearmy

[damianslaw]

After a lengthy very mild zonal spell, the models are now all in agreeable of a change to much more seasonal fayre temp wise as we see troughing making inroads into scandanavia and more importantly all the way down into southern europe- look at the low heights over Italy for Tuesday/Wednesday ushering in a cooler atlantic flow- this is a very important development as it will prevent the azores high from ridging eastwards again, thus it is no surprise the models are suggesting some ridging of the azores high towards our shores by the end of next week - a very plausible evolution which could mean a nice dry settled frosty weekend next week.

The jet still looks very strong for the foreseeable future with the PV still locked in position to our NW but there are evidently increasing signs of it becoming weaker and perhaps shifting in its position as we head towards the middle of the month which may allow for the projected heights due to ridge in across the country to advect further north and west in time as we see strong scandi troughing.

I said yesterday don't expect the models to respond to the suggested upstream pattern change until another week at the very earliest - I urge those longing for colder snowier prospects not to beat themselves up in the coming days just because the models continue to show no sign of any marked change, instead look at the long term teleconnection forecasts and read the strat and in depth discussion thread and those posts made by more knowledgeable people like GP - it was always going to be a long haul this winter given the base ENSO state and positon of the PV, but we will get there in time just hold on..

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Following on from earlier, we've now set the forum to automatically resize large images into thumbnails. I say we.....I mean Paul.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op run builds high pressure into the southwest of the uk during next weekend and then transfers this band of higher pressure across southern britain at the end of next weekend but it is unable to build further north or hold it's position as lows continue to blast across the north of britain and this creates a strong pressure gradient with some very strong swly winds to the north of the high, scotland has a few colder shots during the 12z run but they are transient with rPm air from the north atlantic soon mixing out the cold uppers, at least it's offering another pressure rise later which looks a bit more solid although in a very dodgy timeframe, it would bring some fog and frost to the south but northern britain probably won't benefit from it and remain unsettled with temps close to average and milder at times, also worth noting some frigid cold air sweeping south out of greenland and canada but that is over two weeks away, anyway at least next monday looks coldish with wintry showers, then wet and windy on tuesday but colder and showery again midweek into thursday before it turns milder for a few days.

[IDO]

wow you're a tough audience. a week ago (xmas eve remember), i was having a hard time trying to convince you all that a pattern change was on the way because it wasnt showing on the gfs op. now we see many ens members, 4 times a day, splitting the vortex, churning out arctic highs etc etc. of course these runs are still post T200 (they would have to be since xmas was only a week ago and the signs were hardly showing then at T384). if i had posted last saturday that by this weekend you'd be seeing the hemispheric ens we are doing you would have called me 'nuts'. now perspective fellas. no sign of a cold spell for nw europe (yet) but all this tosh about winters finished etc is just garbage. (and please stop looking at the north atlantic picture and commenting it looks poor - there's a big world out there and the shin bone is connected to the head - sort of)

You mean "A butterfly flaps its wings in...". I'm not so sure; the bigger picture sometimes muddies the waters. Let the bigger picture sort itself out and the hints will then show up in FI within the North Atlantic framework. I am not going to worry about variables in the Pacific & whether they may or may not eventually influence our weather.

The changes have been mentioned for several weeks now. First it was a SSW & nothing came of that. Then it was stratospheric warming; way into FI this has had no effect on Europe (will do in Feb..?). Now it is the PV splitting; GFS has this, late in FI, but as I have been warned many times before, this is FI! It also looks to separate in the wrong place, and for how long (as forecasts for NAO start heading positive again late in FI)?

I actually am very hopeful of a cold Feb (second week onwards probably){*1}, but am not buying this much published forecast change for mid-Jan. Have not for weeks. Now the GFS op is trending towards average, this is even less likely. However if it does materialize, I congratulate you in advance.

A Happy (Wintry) New Year to all.

{*1}Next wave of Strat Warming on top of current warming should do the trick for us.

[Simonl]

You mean "A butterfly flaps its wings in...". I'm not so sure; the bigger picture sometimes muddies the waters. Let the bigger picture sort itself out and the hints will then show up in FI within the North Atlantic framework. I am not going to worry about variables in the Pacific & whether they may or may not eventually influence our weather.

The changes have been mentioned for several weeks now. First it was a SSW & nothing came of that. Then it was stratospheric warming; way into FI this has had no effect on Europe (will do in Feb..?). Now it is the PV splitting; GFS has this, late in FI, but as I have been warned many times before, this is FI! It also looks to separate in the wrong place, and for how long (as forecasts for NAO start heading positive again late in FI)?

I actually am very hopeful of a cold Feb (second week onwards probably){*1}, but am not buying this much published forecast change for mid-Jan. Have not for weeks. Now the GFS op is trending towards average, this is even less likely. However if it does materialize, I congratulate you in advance.

A Happy (Wintry) New Year to all.

{*1}Next wave of Strat Warming on top of current warming should do the trick for us.

Having looked at the GFS it is like a stuck record ... Frustratingly so.... Hopefully something's gonna budge soon - It is almost wishing for the atlantic to help break the pattern but it is heights in other areas that will bring about that change so desperately needed - bias is difficult to avoid since now we are in WINTER, I would hope that the high would move westwards! (and stay there) but instead it is persistent. Annoying that were it summer, we would indeed have a better chance at something warm and sunny, with a few showers to water the young plants. lol!

Happy NEw Year to all NW members, mods, etc. Simon L (Snowfish)

[Matty M]

ECM is looking interesting if you were a hoper.

PV being shunted well west.