Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[jpwild]

again perhaps you are expecting too much from this forum.

May I ask how much do you understand the models, synoptic, and others?

As you are aware, not much, but I don't pretend to be nor do I make any forecasts what so ever and rely on informative forecasts for my weather needs.

I respect forecasts that can be made that are informative, but of course weather events can be unexpected as was the case a few weeks ago with a simple band of rain moving further south than projected (think it was that one).

However, I don't think it's clever or informative to make vague forecasts. Whether it's on here or elsewhere. I stand by my comments that forecasts snow for 'north' is not informative or helpful in anyway what so ever.

We need weather forecasts to be informative, but people need to understand that forecasts may not be 100% accurate.

People on here often say 'cold for north' or 'bad for south'. How does that help anyone? It's bad enough with the IMBY views on models and posts.

Sorry, if that offends you and others, but I find uninformative forecasts to be as useful as using jelly for foundations of a house.

There are posters and posts that are informative and in-depth and acknowledge certain event may or may not happen, and that's good because it's been informative and not trying to be a smart area by making comments 'snow up north'. That could mean snow in Aberdeen or Manchester and gives the poster/forecaster to look good when in essence he's taken a 1000 shots at the goal and one of them luckily went in.

[January Snowstorm]

Well as I suspected the ECM hinting at something more anticyclonic as we head towards midmonth,where the anticyclone will sit exactly is still subject to change but at least we should see temps dropping away at night bringing some chances of frost.

Can't wait for that, 2/3rds of Winter gone and along comes the frost

[DAVID SNOW]

from NOAA

GEFS

At NCEP the current NCEP Global Ensemble configuration consists of runs at

00Z, 06Z, 12Z 18Z each day (available through anonymous ftp from public servers)

Three different types of forecast files are generated from each run:

A T382L64 high resolution control (file name for, e.g., a 24 hr fcst at 00Z is gfs.t00z.pgrbf24) out to 7 days, after which this run gets truncated and is run out to 16 days at a T126L64 resolution

A T190L28 control that is started with a truncated T382L64 analysis and run out to 16 days,

20 perturbed forecasts each run out to 16 days at T190L28 horizontal and vertical resolution.

NEW GEFS (parallel)

Increases the horizontal resolution from T190 (about 70km) to T254 (about 50-55km) for the first 192 hours (8days) of model integration

Increased vertical resolution from 28 levels to 42 levels for 0-384 hours (0-16 days) forecasts

GFS OP

T574 /27 KM/ out to T192, thereafter T190 at 64 layers

you work it out!! i reckon it means that the op and ens control are currently the same horizontal resolution beyond T192. however, it talks about control and high res control. Help!!

Crikey.. Surely the Op run has to be run at the high res to the end,if not what is the point of the other 19 runs???

[chionomaniac]

As you are aware, not much, but I don't pretend to be nor do I make any forecasts what so ever and rely on informative forecasts for my weather needs.

I respect forecasts that can be made that are informative, but of course weather events can be unexpected as was the case a few weeks ago with a simple band of rain moving further south than projected (think it was that one).

However, I don't think it's clever or informative to make vague forecasts. Whether it's on here or elsewhere. I stand by my comments that forecasts snow for 'north' is not informative or helpful in anyway what so ever.

We need weather forecasts to be informative, but people need to understand that forecasts may not be 100% accurate.

People on here often say 'cold for north' or 'bad for south'. How does that help anyone? It's bad enough with the IMBY views on models and posts.

Sorry, if that offends you and others, but I find uninformative forecasts to be as useful as using jelly for foundations of a house.

There are posters and posts that are informative and in-depth and acknowledge certain event may or may not happen, and that's good because it's been informative and not trying to be a smart area by making comments 'snow up north'. That could mean snow in Aberdeen or Manchester and gives the poster/forecaster to look good when in essence he's taken a 1000 shots at the goal and one of them luckily went in.

Whereas I wouldn't want to encourage vagueness, I don't think that you can expect posters to give accurate descriptions of locations and altitude of expected events all of the time.

Now back to the models please.

[West is Best]

Been away for a few days, come back, same old same old.

Bartlett.

Atlantic.

Zonality

= no snow except occasionally northern hills.

As you were.

Will come back in a week's time. Pointless looking at every model running when the Bartlett's in charge.

[Paul]

As you are aware, not much, but I don't pretend to be nor do I make any forecasts what so ever and rely on informative forecasts for my weather needs.

I respect forecasts that can be made that are informative, but of course weather events can be unexpected as was the case a few weeks ago with a simple band of rain moving further south than projected (think it was that one).

However, I don't think it's clever or informative to make vague forecasts. Whether it's on here or elsewhere. I stand by my comments that forecasts snow for 'north' is not informative or helpful in anyway what so ever.

We need weather forecasts to be informative, but people need to understand that forecasts may not be 100% accurate.

People on here often say 'cold for north' or 'bad for south'. How does that help anyone? It's bad enough with the IMBY views on models and posts.

Sorry, if that offends you and others, but I find uninformative forecasts to be as useful as using jelly for foundations of a house.

There are posters and posts that are informative and in-depth and acknowledge certain event may or may not happen, and that's good because it's been informative and not trying to be a smart area by making comments 'snow up north'. That could mean snow in Aberdeen or Manchester and gives the poster/forecaster to look good when in essence he's taken a 1000 shots at the goal and one of them luckily went in.

I think you're missing a couple of important points:

1. This is the model thread - ie for discussion around the models so please can we stick to that.

2. This is a discussion forum not a personal forecasting service - if you want a specific forecast for your particular part of the country there are plenty of other facilities on the site which will provide that for you.

[penicuikblizz]

Could be some snow to lower levels in Scotland on Monday!!

[Paul White.]

Been away for a few days, come back, same old same old.

Bartlett.

Atlantic.

Zonality

= no snow except occasionally northern hills.

As you were.

Will come back in a week's time. Pointless looking at every model running when the Bartlett's in charge.

WIB apparently its not a Bartlett its supposed to be "a displaced Azores high pressure cell" and I have just looked at most of the 18z GFS and an interesting storm is forcast for early next week with wintry showers following on behind for some parts of the uk most prob within the north western parts. I would say no further than North Wales Lol who am I to make them assumptions

Paul

[stewfox]

Could be some snow to lower levels in Scotland on Monday!!

Can you be specfic, which Monday , what post codes and what you mean by 'lower levels' ie under 109 feet ?? and what you mean by 'some'

ps many southern members maynot know where Scotland is, so a map would be useful and a model reference

Edited December 30, 2011 by stewfox

[Liam J]

As you are aware, not much, but I don't pretend to be nor do I make any forecasts what so ever and rely on informative forecasts for my weather needs.

I respect forecasts that can be made that are informative, but of course weather events can be unexpected as was the case a few weeks ago with a simple band of rain moving further south than projected (think it was that one).

However, I don't think it's clever or informative to make vague forecasts. Whether it's on here or elsewhere. I stand by my comments that forecasts snow for 'north' is not informative or helpful in anyway what so ever.

We need weather forecasts to be informative, but people need to understand that forecasts may not be 100% accurate.

People on here often say 'cold for north' or 'bad for south'. How does that help anyone? It's bad enough with the IMBY views on models and posts.

Sorry, if that offends you and others, but I find uninformative forecasts to be as useful as using jelly for foundations of a house.

There are posters and posts that are informative and in-depth and acknowledge certain event may or may not happen, and that's good because it's been informative and not trying to be a smart area by making comments 'snow up north'. That could mean snow in Aberdeen or Manchester and gives the poster/forecaster to look good when in essence he's taken a 1000 shots at the goal and one of them luckily went in.

This post is wrong in so many ways I can't even begin to elaborate, so I'll keep it simple.

You are paying a lot of reference to what you call a 'vague' forecast for 'snow in the north' ?

The certainty of snowfall for any location is notoriously difficult to predict even sometimes within 24-48hours, given that so many factors affect what actually falls and reaches the ground. no way can you expect any forecaster to predict snowfall for specific locations outside of 24-48hours which is what you are trying to suggest?

It may be vague but stating it will 'snow in the north' is a much safer bet and less foolish than stating it will 'snow in Aberdeen or Manchester', unless of course you happen to own a crystal ball.

Also I think you need to enter your postcode into one of the many places available on the net for a personal weather forecast just for your location, perhaps then you won't feel the need to disrupt this thread any further, thanks

Edited December 30, 2011 by Liam J

[Jason M]

Been away for a few days, come back, same old same old.

Bartlett.

Atlantic.

Zonality

= no snow except occasionally northern hills.

As you were.

Will come back in a week's time. Pointless looking at every model running when the Bartlett's in charge.

Best make that 14 days, rather than a week

As there will be people here who are wondering what a Bartlett is, its worth mentioning that technically no such thing exists in meteorology. It is really just a phrase used in some internet forums to describe a persistent belt of high pressure to our SE which just keeps the mild air coming for weeks on end (look at historical charts for 1988). In that sense I think its entirely reasonable to describe the current set up as a 'Bartlett' as whilst the high is a displaced Azores high sitting just our SW the end result is pretty much the same (albeit not quite as mild). Bartlett was the surname of the forcaster (Paul Bartlett) who made the perfectly valid point that the pattern can persist for a very long time.

I do wonder what Mr Bartlett thinks about having something like this named in his honour?

As for the pub run, it could run out to April and it would show the same. Of course, by May we will have our northern blocking in time for the summer

Lets see what the ensembles bring, but so far rock solid agreement on the status quo at 168 hours.

Jason

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Can you be specfic, which Monday , what post codes and what you mean by 'lower levels' ie under 109 feet ?? and what you mean by 'some'

ps many southern members maynot know where Scotland is, so a map would be useful and a model reference

I read it as this Monday. Looking at the charts verifies this. Low levels for Scotland usually mean at sea level. And some means some there will be some snow on Monday for low levels in scotland.

Unless your being sarco

Edited December 30, 2011 by saintpeter

[nick sussex]

Latest fax charts for Tuesday and Wednesday:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Very deep low pressure crossing very close to the nw of Scotland, possible storm force winds especially in the Western Isles, this needs to be watched as its track and depth is still subject to revision.

Any snow chances for the far north look brief as less cold air is pushing quickly east as can be seen on the 120hrs chart.

[J10]

Re the potential Bartlett into FI

The 12Hz run was a big pressure outlier for Paris, and I would suspect the same for the 18Hz run.

[Great Plum]

I'm wondering if I've ever seen a chart like this...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

Also, in deepest FI, we nearly get a sort of lukewarm easterly/ little flow from the continent...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

[DAVID SNOW]

Re the potential Bartlett into FI

The 12Hz run was a big pressure outlier for Paris, and I would suspect the same for the 18Hz run.

Indeed, but the further east and north,the OP run becomes less of an outlier

Edited December 30, 2011 by DAVID SNOW

[Robbie Garrett]

I am surprised this place hasn't exploded yet, high pressure transferring to greenland!! FI yes, but still it's looking good! At least till end of January it's insurance W/O. It's only a matter of days, before we start seeing that POLAR VORTEX get kicked up the a**!

The polar vortex is also being attacked on two fronts!! Newfoundland and Scandinavia!

[J10]

Indeed, but the further east and north,the OP run becomes less of an outlier

and how many of the ensemble runs for 12Hz have pressure close to 1040mb for Moscow (which is suggested by the 18Hz run) very few

[feb1991blizzard]

I am surprised this place hasn't exploded yet, high pressure transferring to greenland!! FI yes, but still it's looking good! At least till end of January it's insurance W/O. It's only a matter of days, before we start seeing that POLAR VORTEX get kicked up the a**!

The polar vortex is also being attacked on two fronts!! Newfoundland and Scandinavia!

Only a surface high, if you look at the 500mb profile the nothing to get excited about, however, the height rises towards scandinavia look decent, even with the PV as it is, i have seen favourable synoptics develop from there, still all down to the stratosphere over the next few weeks, we need to see more warmings and hopefully they will probagate down further.

Edited December 30, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[cscrim]

As you are aware, not much, but I don't pretend to be nor do I make any forecasts what so ever and rely on informative forecasts for my weather needs.

I respect forecasts that can be made that are informative, but of course weather events can be unexpected as was the case a few weeks ago with a simple band of rain moving further south than projected (think it was that one).

However, I don't think it's clever or informative to make vague forecasts. Whether it's on here or elsewhere. I stand by my comments that forecasts snow for 'north' is not informative or helpful in anyway what so ever.

We need weather forecasts to be informative, but people need to understand that forecasts may not be 100% accurate.

People on here often say 'cold for north' or 'bad for south'. How does that help anyone? It's bad enough with the IMBY views on models and posts.

Sorry, if that offends you and others, but I find uninformative forecasts to be as useful as using jelly for foundations of a house.

There are posters and posts that are informative and in-depth and acknowledge certain event may or may not happen, and that's good because it's been informative and not trying to be a smart area by making comments 'snow up north'. That could mean snow in Aberdeen or Manchester and gives the poster/forecaster to look good when in essence he's taken a 1000 shots at the goal and one of them luckily went in.

i know what you mean, a bit like the met office 16-30 day forecast. Come on they do it and it's there job, people on here are giving their opinion of where they believe things will be having looked at the charts, surely the whole point of the model thread? check out meto 16-30 day forecast and you will see what i am getting at.

[Robbie Garrett]

Only a surface high, if you look at the 500mb profile the nothing to get excited about, however, the height rises towards scandinavia look decent, even with the PV as it is, i have seen favourable synoptics develop from there, still all down to the stratosphere over the next few weeks, we need to see more warmings and hopefully they will probagate down further.

Oh no I was talking only about the Scandinavian height rise, and the Newfoundland one. Didn't see the HP cell over Greenland.

I am guessing you've noticed what I am talking about though? I agree it's FI, but it's still winding us up touch ever close to Greenland. This is weeks away, and can change very quickly over the next few days into the New year. it might not be nothing, but lots of stuff is pointing to a change by end of Jan, even if it's HP from the mid Atlantic straight to eastern china!!

[DAVID SNOW]

and how many of the ensemble runs for 12Hz have pressure close to 1040mb for Moscow (which is suggested by the 18Hz run) very few

Yes j, was just wondering why OP run was not such an outlier in other parts at times,lets say

[Cheese Rice]

Anyway plenty of interesting weather for the UK.

Monday

We see an area of -5/-6 850s across the country.

Causing convection across western area, with showers pushing inland and a trough over North West Scotland. Promoting snowfall across all areas, sleety in nature across the cost.

Tuesday

We see a very deep low, some ensemble members projecting sub 960mb.

Wind-speed in excess of 80 mph across Northern Scotland.

Very Heavy Precipitation across Western and central areas.

Throughout the day colder air undercuts the front turning it to very heavy disruptive snowfall across high ground in North West England. This temporary as the front peters out.

Throughout Tuesday evening we see colder air pushing in.

Promoting convection across Wales Northwards, falling as snow inland. With a wintry mixture of rain, hail and sleet up to 10 miles from the coast.

So yes an interesting spell of weather across the UK next week with a potential northerly on Thursday.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh no I was talking only about the Scandinavian height rise, and the Newfoundland one. Didn't see the HP cell over Greenland.

I am guessing you've noticed what I am talking about though? I agree it's FI, but it's still winding us up touch ever close to Greenland. This is weeks away, and can change very quickly over the next few days into the New year. it might not be nothing, but lots of stuff is pointing to a change by end of Jan, even if it's HP from the mid Atlantic straight to eastern china!!

Maybe thats the signal that the ECM 32 dayer is picking up on but my biggest fear is that late Jan will be like last year, mid lattitude high dominated, great if it migrates to scandi or greenland after that but if it doesnt, were into feb then and.......

[jpwild]

Anyway plenty of interesting weather for the UK.

Monday

We see an area of -5/-6 850s across the country.

Causing convection across western area, with showers pushing inland and a trough over North West Scotland. Promoting snowfall across all areas, sleety in nature across the cost.

Tuesday

We see a very deep low, some ensemble members projecting sub 960mb.

Wind-speed in excess of 80 mph across Northern Scotland.

Very Heavy Precipitation across Western and central areas.

Throughout the day colder air undercuts the front turning it to very heavy disruptive snowfall across high ground in North West England. This temporary as the front peters out.

Throughout Tuesday evening we see colder air pushing in.

Promoting convection across Wales Northwards.

So yes an interesting spell of weather across the UK next week with a potential northerly on Thursday.

Very interesting and informative, thank you for posting.