Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Methuselah]

Man! I hope we get a change in patern because this patern is becoming 1 boring. I hope we here at least c day or 2 of snow..

Why is it 'boring'? Yesterday, we had driving hail. But, that aside, whatever folks 'forecast', the models do not show anything that cold occurring just yet; which makes my own guess that this winter would resemble 1977 utter cobblers!

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

little on this link nor the NOAA version last evening to suggest any major change to the current pattern in the next 15 days;

broadly agree - looking through the gefs, the few initial members that were beginning to show some promise around xmas are now in the mid T200/T300 area and are generally, failing to deliver big pattern changes to the NH post T300. however, there are many more members showing another attempt to change the pattern by T350 than there were around xmas so it would appear that, as many have mused a few goes at changing the overall hemispheric pattern will be required. final third jan would still seem a reasonable timescale looking at current overall output. (caveat - no chance of predicting how any change to the hemispheric pattern would affect nw europe)

[Frosty.]

Could you post a link that supports 'the trending towards colder' post T+500 otherwise people will just think another wind up post, many thanks.

Just wait and see if the meto trot out their tired old (mild-average) script out to T+30 days as recent days before being so critical of me, thanks.

[Nick F]

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

little on this link nor the NOAA version last evening to suggest any major change to the current pattern in the next 15 days; the 'storm' in the reliable (supposedly) time frame, needs careful watching?

As with any major surface low development don't expect the details to be finalised until nearer T+00, both for its track and depth.

Morning John, yes I agree, little change I think until at least mid-Jan, very consistent model consensus backing this over the last week which continues in the output this morning. The Polar Front Jet does take a dive southwards later this weekend, so at least the UK will be mainly under a Pm airmass for much of next week, with more snow for the Scottish mountains (which will please the sky industry there). Agreement that there will be a shift north again of the PFJ at the end of the week though.

I know it's very fashionable to look for deep cold on this thread in winter, but with another potential storm modelled to take a swipe at northern Britain around next Tuesday, surely the outlook isn't that boring until the deep cold and snow prospects show in the charts?

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest (29-12) 32 day forecast by EC indicates a warm first half of the month and back to normal (or slighty above) temperatures in the second half of january. The Precipitation anomaly indicates high pressure in the SW of the UK.

Edited December 30, 2011 by sebastiaan1973

[Cloud 10]

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

little on this link nor the NOAA version last evening to suggest any major change to the current pattern in the next 15 days; the 'storm' in the reliable (supposedly) time frame, needs careful watching?

As with any major surface low development don't expect the details to be finalised until nearer T+00, both for its track and depth.

Yes,pretty much groundhog day on those anomaly charts,with a continuation of the

current weather pattern likely.

The possible storm just coming into fax chart range, and would give another battering to the north of the UK

if it happened as below.

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

As you say,the exact details won't be known until much nearer the time.

[SnowBallz]

Just wait and see if the meto trot out their tired old (mild-average) script out to T+30 days as recent days before being so critical of me, thanks.

PL, why do defensive? He hasn't - in my reading - been "critical" of you; he's merely asked that you reference to the evidence which suggests or corroborates that which you've attested to, ie: the colding trend.

As this is an evidence-based science, I think that's a quite reasonable request.

[phil nw.]

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

little on this link nor the NOAA version last evening to suggest any major change to the current pattern in the next 15 days; the 'storm' in the reliable (supposedly) time frame, needs careful watching?

As with any major surface low development don't expect the details to be finalised until nearer T+00, both for its track and depth.

I agree with that John, the o/night output continue with this Atlantic westerly pattern for the next 10-14 days,with atlernating milder and colder incursions as fronts cross the UK.

The GEF`s graphs show fairly average temps.,as expected,but again the Op run somewhat milder than the mean.

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

I don`t normaly post FI charts but this caught my eye,

signs that signals are being picked up for the vortex to be on the move,due to Strato.warming?--maybe.

The Alaskan region was the area shown for this and if anyone runs through the NH views from T300 to the end it can be seen how the E.Canadian trough digs south and the lows start to move north up the west of Greenland.This would start to suck up the Azores high if we carried on.

Tentative signs indeed, and the GFS may well drop this on the next run, but at least the far output is toying with a different outcome.

Edited December 30, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Spurry]

GFS indicating that there could be some very stormy weather tracking across Northern England early on Tuesday with some colder air digging in behind , can't really see anything else wintry yet though except for Deep FI, when some cold weather is dragged down from the north across most parts ..other than that it just looks like the usual Atlantic flow

[Frosty.]

PL, why do defensive? He hasn't - in my reading - been "critical" of you; he's merely asked that you reference to the evidence which suggests or corroborates that which you've attested to, ie: the colding trend. As this is an evidence-based science, I think that's a quite reasonable request.

My comment about the T+500 hours had more to do with some of the cold charts the CFS has been showing beyond that timeframe recently, the last time I looked it had some very wintry charts but before then it looks like a fairly mild outlook generally but with a few Pm incursions, mainly affecting the north, I wasn't trying to wind anyone up, just adding a bit of humour and as the winter so far has been so mediocre, a bit of humour helps.

[kev238]

Polar low- I don't know why you describe it as a tired old script... They are producing the same extended outlook as there is no real sign of a pattern change. I think their forecasts have been great in the extended range recently.. Very consistent and accurate... And the conditions on the ground have been reflected in their forecasts as they have been very average and what is generally to be expected in a uk winter.

They keep on producing the same forecasts as all the models point in that direction.

Also, someone has just posted about the ECM 32 day run pointing to mild and then just above average which further backs up their ideas.

[Methuselah]

Polar low- I don't know why you describe it as a tired old script... They are producing the same extended outlook as there is no real sign of a pattern change. I think their forecasts have been great in the extended range recently.. Very consistent and accurate... And the conditions on the ground have been reflected in their forecasts as they have been very average and what is generally to be expected in a uk winter.

They keep on producing the same forecasts as all the models point in that direction.

Also, someone has just posted about the ECM 32 day run pointing to mild and then just above average which further backs up their ideas.

Aye, I pretty-much agree with that assessment. IMO, the plaudits should go to those who call things correctly, not to those whose forecasts contain nothing other that what we all want to hear.

Which is why, IMO, the MetO (its blunders (BBQ Summer?) notwithstanding) still ranks way above all the 'alternative' forecasters combined. Whatever they may claim!

[Frosty.]

Also, someone has just posted about the ECM 32 day run pointing to mild and then just above average which further backs up their ideas.

And as mountain shadow posted, the ecm, gfs and gefs are trending colder in the later part of their respective outputs so there are conflicting messages, and don't forget steve murr's post the other night or that gp still thinks we have a chance of a cold spell maybe later in jan but if the ECM 32 day run proves accurate, cold fans will only have feb to deliver that elusive beasterly.

[IDO]

The poop fest that is now the GFS run couldn't get any worse?

It has.

The 06z is a dogs dinner and a dogs breakfast of a run. We now lose the zonal for most of the run and delve into the depths of a SW HP.

Is the PV getting more powerful on this run?

We have lost the toppler that ended the last few runs, giving the south nothing of consequence in the medium term.

It ends on the 15th; are we captivated by its resemblance to the HP that ruined November? We are certainly not entranced by its potential from that snapshot; the second half of January looks doomed to average indifference.

[bluearmy]

I agree with that John, the o/night output continue with this Atlantic westerly pattern for the next 10-14 days,with atlernating milder and colder incursions as fronts cross the UK.

The GEF`s graphs show fairly average temps.,as expected,but again the Op run somewhat milder than the mean.

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

I don`t normaly post FI charts but this caught my eye,

Phil, I think events the other side of the NH will be crucial I we are to get a cold second half jan. The 'alaskan' ridge has been well trailed and now hows up at the end of two consecutive op runs. Will the p/v be strong enough to resist it???

signs that signals are being picked up for the vortex to be on the move,due to Strato.warming?--maybe.

The Alaskan region was the area shown for this and if anyone runs through the NH views from T300 to the end it can be seen how the E.Canadian trough digs south and the lows start to move north up the west of Greenland.This would start to suck up the Azores high if we carried on.

Tentative signs indeed, and the GFS may well drop this on the next run, but at least the far output is toying with a different outcome.

[karyo]

Latest (29-12) 32 day forecast by EC indicates a warm first half of the month and back to normal (or slighty above) temperatures in the second half of january. The Precipitation anomaly indicates high pressure in the SW of the UK.

I think January will be a repeat of December, just a touch milder! Our only hope is February...

The CFS shows an average February for our part of Europe and above average in Russia and eastern Scandinavia.

There is a lack of below average temperatures in most of Europe.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I have to say the CFS has been remarkably consistent since October and people who criticised it may have to acknowledge that pretty soon.

Karyo

[bluearmy]

bloody iPad!

Anyway Phil, the Alaskan ridge could be very important. Will the vortex be able to resist it in it's slightly weaker state?

Two runs now .........................

[recklessabandon]

GFS has Tuesday's storm tracking slightly further south now than last night, therefore affecting much more of the northern UK on this revised track, a track change of one or two degrees will make a huge difference, especially as I think the cold air it drags in with it to its trailing edge will see some wintry ppn. Can see blizzard conditions affecting high-level routes of northern UK and some disruptive/damaging wind.

[wolvesfan]

Far realms of fi albeit but note the blocking over the pacific pumping warm uppers up into the arctic,something to look for maybe?,first time i've seen it this winter.

[Frosty.]

I think January will be a repeat of December, just a touch milder! Our only hope is February... The CFS shows an average February for our part of Europe and above average in Russia and eastern Scandinavia. There is a lack of below average temperatures in most of Europe. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif I have to say the CFS has been remarkably consistent since October and people who criticised it may have to acknowledge that pretty soon. Karyo

The CFS flip flops, it has had some very wintry charts recently in the longer range so it hasn't been average and mild one way traffic, also, the strat has undergone a moderate warming episode and hopefully there will be more of that to enable a pattern change and bring a welcome relief to this poor winter so far.

Edited December 30, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[shedhead]

Aye, I pretty-much agree with that assessment. IMO, the plaudits should go to those who call things correctly, not to those whose forecasts contain nothing other that what we all want to hear.

Which is why, IMO, the MetO (its blunders (BBQ Summer?) notwithstanding) still ranks way above all the 'alternative' forecasters combined. Whatever they may claim!

[shedhead]

Aye, I pretty-much agree with that assessment. IMO, the plaudits should go to those who call things correctly, not to those whose forecasts contain nothing other that what we all want to hear.

Which is why, IMO, the MetO (its blunders (BBQ Summer?) notwithstanding) still ranks way above all the 'alternative' forecasters combined. Whatever they may claim!

Now that would be both refreshing and revolutionary on here Pete, because hitherto precisely the opposite has happened. I won't be holding my breath tho, let's put it that way....

[ANYWEATHER]

Little comfort for those wanting Wintry weather away from the Scottish Mountains in the extended ten day outlook from both Ecm and Gfs. Looks as though we will see recent conditions prevailing into the at least the first half of January, so mild and cold at times windy and wet at times just about sums it up. Looking at the charts the synoptics show the H500 mb charts showing little change from recently, the cold is all bottled up in the Artic and shows no sign of any cold weather bleeding our way for any kind of real Winter weather....Patience certainly required!! :smilz38:

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!

[karyo]

The CFS flip flops, it has had some very wintry charts recently in the longer range so it hasn't been average and mild one way traffic, also, the strat has undergone a moderate warming episode and hopefully there will be more of that to enable a pattern change and bring a welcome relief to this poor winter so far.

I am not referring to the detailed runs ala gfs but the temperature link that I provided in my earlier post.

This updates once a day and has been remarkably consistent for several months now.

If people choose not to consider what it shows then that's their choice but I have found it very useful and very close to the mark for several winters now. I was hoping it would turn out to be wrong this time but it's doing amazingly well.

Karyo

[Frosty.]

I am not referring to the detailed runs ala gfs but the temperature link that I provided in my earlier post. This updates once a day and has been remarkably consistent for several months now. If people choose not to consider what it shows then that's their choice but I have found it very useful and very close to the mark for several winters now. I was hoping it would turn out to be wrong this time but it's doing amazingly well. Karyo

I agree it's useful but it's also depressing, thankfully there are other factors to consider such as what will the ultimate impact of the moderate stratospheric warming and will there be further more significant warming, the cold strat has been fueling the jet since early december but the warming will surely slow it down soon and allow high pressure to develop to the north.