Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[nick sussex]

The ECM at 240hrs reminds me of those awful slogans you get on political campaigns!

I don't know who coined this phrase" change you can believe in" or is it another load of empty promises?

If the ECM 240hrs verifies then a chance of a pattern change soon after, however we've been down this road before with it over the last week or so and the GFS is not having any of it so for the timebeing not alot to get excited about in the model output if you're looking for some cold and snow.

[IDO]

Don't shoot the messenger!

Looking at the stratospheric temps (at 30hPa) there still remains a cold pool over Europe at the end of the GFS run (Jan 16th). This does suggest little hope of prolonged cold before late Jan.

JMA still have cold sea temps, in the North Atlantic, forecast throughout Jan 2012 so even if we get zonal there is little hope of snow for anything but higher ground.

Stratospheric warming is forecast but there is no sign of the PV being convincingly effected by it. Unless it splits there is little hope of any decent cold and I believe January will not see us benefiting from this.

Although the HP to our south is not officially a Bartlett, its presence has a similar outcome. There is no sign of this going anywhere in the medium term so cool zonal is the best the England can hope for.

Although NAO is heading to a weak negative' it seems to indicate a West based outcome meaning HP close to the UK; not very helpful.

CFS current temp predictions for the rest of the winter are, on average, mild. They believe this stubborn pattern will reduce our Winter to above average throughout.

Despite members insisting a change is on the way there is very little (background noises) to back this up (in the reliable time frame). Of course normal caveats apply. I will be slightly more optimistic by mid Jan looking towards Feb, however as we are starting from such a desperate position (for prolonged cold) even a moderate increase in synoptics will probably be of little substance down the line.

Edited December 31, 2011 by i'm dreaming of...

[winterof79]

The ECM at 240hrs reminds me of those awful slogans you get on political campaigns!

I don't know who coined this phrase" change you can believe in" or is it another load of empty promises?

If the ECM 240hrs verifies then a chance of a pattern change soon after, however we've been down this road before with it over the last week or so and the GFS is not having any of it so for the timebeing not alot to get excited about in the model output if you're looking for some cold and snow.

"for the time being" being the operative phrase.ECM shows the PV splitting for the second day and with the strat warmings set to continue,raging zonality cannot be sustaned.It has already been stated that NWP will not yet fully get a grip of this but it will not be too long before they do.We must get used to not seeing what we desire for a while longer but do not fall into the winter is over and the days are getting longer etc....thats for the end of Feb.I can tell some of you from past experience that February can be a severe month.Chins up guys Edit:Take a peak at what Retron has to say on TWO if you want a more in depth reasoning. :winky:

Edited December 31, 2011 by winterof79

[nick sussex]

"for the time being" being the operative phrase.ECM shows the PV splitting for the second day and with the strat warmings set to continue,raging zonality cannot be sustaned.It has already been stated that NWP will not yet fully get a grip of this but it will not be too long before they do.We must get used to not seeing what we desire for a while longer but do not fall into the winter is over and the days are getting longer etc....thats for the end of Feb.I can tell some of you from past experience that February can be a severe month.Chins up guys

I don't think I was being unduly negative.

But until we see the PV dislodged and this is within 168hrs then I won't believe it, normally its the GFS which gets most of my criticism for its outlandish lower resolution outputs but the ECM has hardly been one to trust post 168hrs.

Having said all this I'm still optimistic that the second half of winter will produce some colder weather with snow and to be honest it can't be any worse than last January and February which were utter rubbish.

[Frosty.]

Where is Blast, where is RJS..where is winter? the Gfs 00z operational run is another shambles for southern britain with very little in the way of polar maritime influence, in a nutshell it's another mild run for the south and all it will do is speed up the spring season which is already way advanced from last winter. Scotland again has the coldest of what's on offer with some brief pulses of Pm air to add a bit of fresh snow to the mountains but with milder spells melting it all again. I am as desperate as anyone to see this wretched pattern turn into something colder and the Ecm hints at a change but mostly it's just white noise, I had thought that the moderate strat warming would begin to disrupt the zonal express but all the gfs 00z does is bring milder more benign weather to the south and keep the north unsettled and cooler at times.

[winterof79]

I don't think I was being unduly negative.

But until we see the PV dislodged and this is within 168hrs then I won't believe it, normally its the GFS which gets most of my criticism for its outlandish lower resolution outputs but the ECM has hardly been one to trust post 168hrs.

Having said all this I'm still optimistic that the second half of winter will produce some colder weather with snow and to be honest it can't be any worse than last January and February which were utter rubbish.

Sorry Nick it was not aimed at you,i was just quoting your one line for reference.

Edited December 31, 2011 by winterof79

[bluearmy]

The vortex is splitting but at the moment it's over the others side of the pole. Patience chaps, this vortex will takes some shifting.

[shedhead]

In the meantime, whilst the majority continue to focus almost obsessively on 'jam tomorrow cold', we see a major Atlantic storm bowling right at us well within the reliable timeframe. It does make you wonder sometimes if we are a group of weather enthusiasts, or just a bunch of people simply fixated on cold.

[phil nw.]

Regrettably many posts have been deleted or edited from earlier for being off topic.

Please refer your speculations,preferences,views on the Meto 30 dayer etc to the appropiate threads.

We want this thread to contain discussions directly related to current output--not talk of what might/should happen if there`s no data/charts to support it.

Thankyou people,have a nice one.

[kev238]

Well the charts show a continuation of the unsettled zonal theme of recent weeks with a mixture of very mild days and cooler days. Tuesday looks like a very blowy day for all of the uk although the worst conditions as ever over scotland.

The polar vortex looks as much of a beast as ever on the g f s this morning whilst the other models paint much the same picture in the period up to day ten.

[Timmytour]

This winter has not offered much excitement in the form of cold and snow for the south so far.....and the chances (not the hopes) are that it won't for the rest of winter the way GFS is shaping things up to be.

But that's a hell of a depression coming through for early next week. Out of curiosity I'm wondering how far off the track currently progged by GFS it will go. If it comes further south it looks like it could be quite destructive just as everyone's returning to work. But what's the form this winter for GFS.....have the intense systems such as next week's generally gone further north or south?

In the meantime....for real winter to come....I think we'll have to look to a volcano erupting in Iceland to shift things the way some of us want to see them! :-)

Edited December 31, 2011 by phil n.warks.
Off Topic comments

[Bristawl Si]

Where is Blast, where is RJS..where is winter?

.......... milder more benign weather to the south and keep the north unsettled and cooler at times.

In hiding probably! I think i've seen references to a pattern change or something like that for period 7 to 10th Jan - doesn't look that way to me.

As for the second part i've quoted from your post, that was the nutshell of my 20-second 'hunch' UK Winter forecast a few weeks ago.

That HP to the south is not playing ball is it? Even if there is change towards end of Jan, GP's forecast indicates a dry anticyclonic feed, even though cold, boring as well.

The current model output suggests more of the same for the foreseeable - things can change quite quickly (seen it over the years) but then again we could get to late Feb and we've seen virtually no winter (esp in the South).

[KTtom]

One thing I have noticed is that the 00z from GFS seems to favour a very flat pattern whilst the 06z is much more amplified...todays 06z continues this theme by +168.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well this should hopefully raise a few eye brows. There is a definate split of the PV and a decent mid atlantic high stretching into Greenland. This was something GP was talking about over on the tec thread as being likely based on the information he was looking at.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111231/06/324/h500slp.png

[Duane S.]

06z finally gives us some winter cheer. Nothing spectacular but certainly so much better than recent op outputs from the GFS

[Kentish Man]

One thing I have noticed is that the 00z from GFS seems to favour a very flat pattern whilst the 06z is much more amplified...todays 06z continues this theme by +168.

The 00z apparently verifies less well than the 06z or 12z. This 06z operational run like last nights operational 18z brings in much colder conditions in FI, albeit anticyclonic cold initially. So maybe the tiny glimmer from last night is still there.

[Bobby]

If that high moved a few hundred miles north east we'd be in business.

This is along the lines of what the ensembles have hinted at. Probably won't happen but shows you can't write off January yet

[kev238]

Probably the best charts of the winter produced by the 6 z g f s.... A much less intense polar vortex and signs of northern blocking though the main cold plunge misses us to the east!

However, more encouraging for a colder second half of January!

[Bobby]

Also a nasty storm on 06z GFS

ECM has it less deep and further south... a lot of rain too.

[Frosty.]

Probably the best charts of the winter produced by the 6 z g f s.... A much less intense polar vortex and signs of northern blocking though the main cold plunge misses us to the east!

However, more encouraging for a colder second half of January!

All we need is some consistency from this model, the 12z could be another 00z horror show very easily. We are all looking for a trend away from this oct/nov type pattern of average/mild with wet and windy spells to a colder more blocked pattern to salvage some respectability for the second half of winter, at the moment our winter is spluttering like del boy's rusty old three wheeler.

[johnholmes]

and back to matters closer to hand

00z ECMWF takes the low as an open wave WSW of Ireland at 00z Tuesday through about N Wales-Humber into the N Sea by 00z Wednesday as a low of about 965mb

00z Met centre 975mb off WNW Ireland to a centre below 970mb off the Norwegian coast by 00z Wednesday having crossed Scotland about the Great Glen area

06Z GFS at 00z Tuesday shows it about the same position and depth as UK Met for 00z Tuesday then as a centre below 960mb along about the same path into the N Sea.

So some agreement but also expect some relatively minor changes now in both its track and intensity, probably 50 miles north or south of the Met and 06Z GFS track and about that depth.

[Climate Man]

I read all the doom and gloom on the previos page after seeing the 06Z - could not understand the doom and gloom as had not seen the previous output. The 06z is not fantastic but gives more potential than any for weeks in terms of cold. The next few outputs will make for interesting reading. I wonder how may members will be here rather than partying tonight......

[The Northern Ramper]

After a cool/mild zonal mix in the reliable the 6z shows in FI what i believe to be a pattern changer with Northern blocking moving into place, a splitting of the vortex in process and the real prospect of cold to come from our east.

In line with what GP forecast too i may add.

[Tim Bland]

06z op looks more in line with the ensembles this time. Hopefully some more interesting FI charts in the next few days. Still nothing great unless you ate planning a trip to Russia as the ridge builds over us.....I will still be partying tonight!

Looking at the ensembles the OP goes from a mild outlier to a cold outlier do everything still up for grabs

Edited December 31, 2011 by Tim Bland

[bluearmy]

I read all the doom and gloom on the previos page after seeing the 06Z - could not understand the doom and gloom as had not seen the previous output. The 06z is not fantastic but gives more potential than any for weeks in terms of cold. The next few outputs will make for interesting reading. I wonder how may members will be here rather than partying tonight......

read GP's post on the in depth thread and then look at the 06z. the clues are all there although dont expect the 12z gfs op to throw out the same fi run this time.

EDIT: as yesterday, the GEFS paint some amazing NH patterns in fi with some startling arctic highs now showing within a fortnight. with the p/v looking to remain strong ne canada/west of greenland for the time being, the main recipient of the draining of deep cold is not nw europe.

the NH plot of the op in far off fi is notable for the very different profile of 10hpa strat temps than we've seen. i expect it is an oddball but worth looking to see if it shows again in subsequent runs.

Edited December 31, 2011 by bluearmy