Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Jason M]

If that high moved a few hundred miles north east we'd be in business.

This is along the lines of what the ensembles have hinted at. Probably won't happen but shows you can't write off January yet

Hi

I think something like this is very likely. The trouble is that its actually not a good chart in many ways. The jet is riding over the top and the high can only sink, resulting in zonality setting in again. Indeed if you run the next few charts on meteocel it shows this happening. The SE corner may see a few flurries but it would be a blink and miss it type affair.

For anything notable we need the high to be sitting a fair way out into the Atlantic, or better still clearing off altogether to allow some colder blocks to form at higher latitude.

Jason

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Hi

I think something like this is very likely. The trouble is that its actually not a good chart in many ways. The jet is riding over the top and the high can only sink, resulting in zonality setting in again. Indeed if you run the next few charts on meteocel it shows this happening. The SE corner may see a few flurries but it would be a blink and miss it type affair.

For anything notable we need the high to be sitting a fair way out into the Atlantic, or better still clearing off altogether to allow some colder blocks to form at higher latitude.

Jason

Going by what most of us have witnessed this winter so far I'm sure many will take the charts showed by the 06 run in FI as at least there will be a seasonal feel with frost and perhaps a bit of snow around. Its a start, lets face it and hopefully a trend that will be repeated in future runs. Of more importance is the continued cooling shown by the GFS and ECM ensembles.

[Jason M]

Looking through the ensembles there are a number which are nearly epic. Unfortunately Uncle Bartlett sends most (although not all) of the easterlies packing! There is an increasing signal for an easterly after mid month though, which i think was in line with GPs thoughts.

Jason

[Bobby]

Hi

I think something like this is very likely. The trouble is that its actually not a good chart in many ways. The jet is riding over the top and the high can only sink, resulting in zonality setting in again. Indeed if you run the next few charts on meteocel it shows this happening. The SE corner may see a few flurries but it would be a blink and miss it type affair.

For anything notable we need the high to be sitting a fair way out into the Atlantic, or better still clearing off altogether to allow some colder blocks to form at higher latitude.

Jason

Actually I meant NW not NE, although anywhere further north. But yes the question is whether it could hold against the jet... if the polar vortex weakens then it could allow a block to hold. At least there is interest showing now which is an improvement at least.

[Glacier Point]

read GP's post on the in depth thread and then look at the 06z. the clues are all there although dont expect the 12z gfs op to throw out the same fi run this time.

EDIT: as yesterday, the GEFS paint some amazing NH patterns in fi with some startling arctic highs now showing within a fortnight. with the p/v looking to remain strong ne canada/west of greenland for the time being, the main recipient of the draining of deep cold is not nw europe.

the NH plot of the op in far off fi is notable for the very different profile of 10hpa strat temps than we've seen. i expect it is an oddball but worth looking to see if it shows again in subsequent runs.

One constant throughout is a section of the PV remaining camped west of Greenland. If we see enough flow into the southern arm (and I would suggest that the 00z ECM, amplification of the Pacific ridge and spread in GFS ensemble options are hinting at this), that could sit with the notion of height rises over Scandinavia following any toppling high as a pulse of energy eddies north in the North Atlantic.

As a cautionary note, the MJO heading towards phase 8 might be triggering the GEFS into these options although this also would be consistent with more flow going south and polar westerly decrease - and the GFS is most bullish of the model options for tropical waves - although the timing of the modelling changes would obviously fit long term thoughts.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Glacier Point

[Frosty.]

One constant throughout is a section of the PV remaining camped west of Greenland. If we see enough flow into the southern arm (and I would suggest that the 00z ECM, amplification of the Pacific ridge and spread in GFS ensemble options are hinting at this), that could sit with the notion of height rises over Scandinavia following any toppling high as a pulse of energy eddies north in the North Atlantic.

As a cautionary note, the MJO heading towards phase 8 might be triggering the GEFS into these options although this also would be consistent with more flow going south and polar westerly decrease - and the GFS is most bullish of the model options for tropical waves - although the timing of the modelling changes would obviously fit long term thoughts.

Your posts are getting easier to understand and are always a welcome relief from the mild muck outside, I get the impression that february could be the high point of this winter, that's not saying much of course, as at least the first half of january is looking average at best but fingers crossed.

[bluearmy]

One constant throughout is a section of the PV remaining camped west of Greenland. If we see enough flow into the southern arm (and I would suggest that the 00z ECM, amplification of the Pacific ridge and spread in GFS ensemble options are hinting at this), that could sit with the notion of height rises over Scandinavia following any toppling high as a pulse of energy eddies north in the North Atlantic.

As a cautionary note, the MJO heading towards phase 8 might be triggering the GEFS into these options although this also would be consistent with more flow going south and polar westerly decrease - and the GFS is most bullish of the model options for tropical waves - although the timing of the modelling changes would obviously fit long term thoughts.

most of the height rises in the arctic are courtesy of ridging west of alaska. this has been trailed for a long time on the extended ens and has trended stronger and stronger. do these ridges also fit with the MJO headed towards phase 8? looking at the forecasts, the amplitude of the MJO wave looks fairly sedate anway.

[legritter]

a good start to the new year for us mod watchers ,it will be interesting to see what ecm is showing at 240 hrs from about next tues onwards , i think it will be a painfull week but perhaps some rewards come the following , if this very interesting low on tues day ish does take a good track further south , it could be a very early sign of things a changing , anyhow thanks to all the gang for their brilliant contributions with charts and tech details etc , all the best for 2012 ,lets hope its a BEASTERLY

[Frosty.]

yellow alerts have been issued for early next week for ice risk and for severe gales but nothing for snow as usual although the models show a colder flow for monday with wintry showers in some areas, then a spell of heavy rain and potentially stormy winds on tuesday, followed by another colder and showery day next wednesday, when I say colder, I mean temps around average or a fraction below, nothing to get excited about.

[Summer Sun]

14 day's away I know but......

Plenty of snow showing to our east there with some of it making land.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Gavin D

[bluearmy]

14 days away - so not post them gav and make the thread look 'trashy'. Maybe just say 'snow risk at th end of the run' ??

[IDO]

Watch the 12z GFS; probably be back to zonal. Need 3-4 days of snow charts like that before I give it credence; as snow is hard enough to forecast 48 hours out, let alone two weeks! As many members have been saying, a change due mid-Jan, whether it is sustained (GFS looks like it will default back to tepid HP following 384) or a change for the good we may not know for another week.

[Harsh Climate]

14 day's away I know but......

Plenty of snow showing to our east there with some of it making land.

Sorry but if these charts 14 days away were to come off most of us would remain dry with little or no snow.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3241.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3481.png

During the transition from mild to cold on the 13th a band of rain/sleet/snow would push south dying away as it leaves scotland. High ground of scotland/northern england would maybe get a few cm with several cm for the mountains of scotland. Then from the 14th snow showers would become increasingly confined to coastal regions regions with maybe a bit more organised snow in the far north east of scotland. Then from the 15th no snow anywhere.

All that is hypothetical as those charts probably won't come off, but nether the less its a step in the right direction.

If in 14 days time we are going to have a chart like this:

at t00h, we must have it evolve into something like this:

Because if the high pressure over greenland/atlantic doesn't extend towards svalbard we will just end up with a ****y northerly or the high will just sink back south/south east as there is no under cutting lows/depressions to prop it up.

So if you want a bit of frost and maybe spot the odd flake of snow the latest gfs charts 14 days away may be for you, but if your like me and want huge dumps of snow, this is how it must evolve

Edited December 31, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[phil nw.]

The mobile westerly pattern continues into the New Year then.

The next deep low is forecasted to track across the north of Scotland through Tuesday with gales and rain

clearing to somewhat colder,brighter conditions with some showers,mainly for the North and West,possibly wintry over the high ground.

However it isn`t long before the next system approaches from the Atlantic by midweek.

with more rain spreading North East ahead of a warm front which brings milder air back across the country.

At the moment latest modelling has the Azores High building behind this feature towards the UK.as we go towards the end of next week.

settling things down and becoming drier,especially for the south.

Further on towards week 2 the trend by both ECM and GFS is to build this High across the UK.

which would allow surface cooling and night frosts.

Latest Ens

http://www.weerplaza...?type=eps_pluim

http://176.31.229.22...ndres&runpara=0

show fairly average conditions- as we would expect looking at the current sypnotics.

Edited December 31, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Frosty.]

Well if you want a bit of frost and maybe spot the odd flake of snow these charts 14 days away may be for you, but if your like me and want huge dumps of snow, this is what we must look out for

I agree that the 6z charts today are not a patch on the late november charts from last year but they are a step in the right direction at least but the high to the west needs to be further west or it's a useless toppler, 12z will probably be chalk and cheese.

[phil nw.]

Just a general point .If possible can posters upload thumbnails or links rather than the full sized images.

They don`t clutter the pages up so much and makes the thread and indeed those posts much easier to read.

Thanks folks.

Edited December 31, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Harsh Climate]

Just a general point .If possible can posters upload thumbnails or links rather than the full sized images.

They don`t clutter the pages up so much and makes the thread and indeed those posts much easier to read.

Thanks folks.

I don't see you doing that in your post above

I agree that the 6z charts today are not a patch on the late november charts from last year but they are a step in the right direction at least but the high to the west needs to be further west or it's a useless toppler, 12z will probably be chalk and cheese.

Yes, it may be a long time before we see charts like last november again. Hopefully the gfs might be onto something and we pick up a new trend soon

[phil nw.]

I don't see you doing that in your post above

They are thumbnails HC-yours are much bigger--i am sure you can see the difference.

Anyway if you want to discuss my simple request PM me--lets not go OT--thanks.

Edited December 31, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Harsh Climate]

They are thumbnails HC-yours are much bigger--i am sure you can see the difference.

Anyway if you want to discuss my simple request PM me--lets not go OT--thanks.

O i see, sorry :lol:

[phil nw.]

O i see, sorry :lol:

OK--no probs.I will just add posting full images is not a crime-i just think the thread looks tidier and posts much easier to follow if these are kept to a minimum,saves paging down so much to see the end of a post .

Anyway back on topic...

Edited December 31, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Frosty.]

I noticed on the meto update today that they are not expecting the anticyclone to build as far north as the models show on week 2, they just say there will be longer dry intervals in the south so the north of the uk could remain unsettled throughout the next few weeks, infact, they never even mention high pressure.

Edited December 31, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Buzz]

OK--no probs.I will just add posting full images is not a crime-i just think the thread looks tidier and posts much easier to follow if these are kept to a minimum,saves paging down so much to see the end of a post .

Anyway back on topic...

In addition to that, would it be possible to ask posters not to quote messages that contain a number of images - that also introduces unnecessary clutter.

[Frosty.]

In addition to that, would it be possible to ask posters not to quote messages that contain a number of images - that also introduces unnecessary clutter.

surely that goes without saying

[johnholmes]

to those new to what to post to explain your views that post by phil is a first class example

[Snowmad79]

Same old same old from the GFS Operational Outlier run... Looking at those 06z ensembles, I definitely wouldn't bother viewing the actual run itself

Edited December 31, 2011 by Osbourne One-Nil
Image removed for deliberately ignoring Phil's earlier request. You've made your point in the correct fashion already, so leave it there eh?